Intersectoral labor mobility and deforestation in Ghana

Transcription

1 Inersecoral labor mobiliy and deforesaion in Ghana VICTOR OWUSU, Corresponding uhor Deparmen of griculural Economics, gribusiness and Exension, Kwame Nkrumah Universiy of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana. : Tel: vowusu.agric@knus.edu.gh K. YERFI FOSU Universiy of Ghana, Legon, ccra, Ghana. fozea@yahoo.co.uk KEES BURGER Wageningen Universiy, Wageningen, The Neherlands. kees.burger@wur.nl ONLINE ENDIX 1

2 ppendix 1. Deails of descripion of variables and sources of daa The daa employed in his paper cover he period from 1970 o They are annual ime series daa on Ghana. In wha follows, he definiion and measuremen of each variable are provided. The sources of all he daa are also indicaed. Labor Mobiliy Where agriculure is he larges secor and he residual employer in an economy, labor mobiliy rae is measured as he magniude of labor conribued by he agriculural secor o he res of he economy. s noed by Johnson and Kilby (1975) and Fosu (1989), he absolue increase in he non-agriculure labor force per annum is compued as M ( L L )( L L ), where N N 1 N M is he labor mobiliy rae in period and ( L L ), L N and L are he coefficien of differenial growh (namely, he Folke Dovring Coefficien), he growh rae of labor force in non-agriculural secor in period and he growh rae of he oal labor force respecively. Toal labor force represens all persons aged 15 years and above engaged in or seeking employmen in he agriculural secor or he non-agriculural secor. The ime series daa on labor employed in agriculure and he whole economy (proxied by he respecive economically acive populaion) were obained from various issues of he UN Food and griculure Organizaion (FO) Producion Yearbook and he Quarerly Diges of Saisics published by he Ghana Saisical Service, ccra. Deforesaion Rae The deforesaion rae used in he presen paper is based on deforesaion due o agriculural land expansion. The variable is compued as he difference beween he oal area under agriculural culivaion for consecuive years. Noably, FO defines deforesaion as he conversion of foresland o arable land, permanen crops and permanen pasures. s Scrieciu 2

3 (2007) poined ou, changes in agriculural land area are used as indicaors of ropical fores depleion because land clearing for agriculure is viewed generally as he main source of deforesaion in he ropics. Ready availabiliy of daa suggesed he deforesaion measure employed in he presen sudy. These daa were obained from various issues of he FO Producion Yearbook. Income Due o daa availabiliy, oal Gross Domesic Produc (GDP) is used o proxy naional income. Noably complee daa on secoral wages for he period under sudy were no readily available. Toal GDP is made up of GDP in agriculure and GDP in non-agriculure. Nonagriculural GDP is he difference beween oal GDP and GDP in agriculure. griculural and non-agriculural GDP are used o proxy agriculural and non-agriculural incomes respecively. The income variables used in he esimaions are income per capia. griculural income per capia is he raio of agriculural income o agriculural populaion. Nonagriculural income per capia is he raio of non-agriculural income o non-agriculural populaion. The income in agriculure relaive o ha in non-agriculure was derived as he raio of agriculural income per capia o non-agriculural income per capia. Boh GDP in curren and consan 1985 prices were obained. Dividing he nominal GDP (curren) by he real GDP (consan) yields he relevan GDP deflaor (1985=100). The agriculural populaion and non-agriculural populaion daa were obained from he various issues of he FO Producion Yearbook. The ime series daa on gross domesic produc originaing in he agriculural and non-agriculural secors were obained from he Ghana Saisical Service and he various issues of he Inernaional Financial Saisics (IFS) published by he Inernaional Moneary Fund (IMF). 3

4 Rural Populaion Pressure Rural populaion pressure is defined as he raio of rural populaion (millions) o area culivaed (ha). Daa on rural populaion are obained from various issues of he FO Producion Yearbook. Time series daa on annual arable (culivaed) land are also obained from his source. Rae of Unemploymen in he Non-griculural Secor The rae of non-agriculural unemploymen is compued as uniy minus he employmen rae in non-agriculural secor. The non-agriculural employmen rae is he raio of employmen in he non-agriculural secor o he oal labor force in non-agriculural secor. Complee daa on labor force in he non-agriculural secor for he period of sudy were no readily available so economically acive populaion in he non-agriculural secor was used as a proxy for he labor force in he non-agriculural secor. Daa on economically acive populaion were obained from various issues of he FO Producion Yearbook. The sources of he employmen daa were he ILO Yearbook of Labor Saisics. Real Price of Insecicides nnual ime series daa on he real price of cocoa insecicides measured in Ghana cedis per lier are employed. The real prices of insecicides are obained by deflaing he nominal price of insecicides by he rural CPI (1997=100). The relevan daa are obained from he Ghana BOD and he Ghana Saisical Service. Real Price of Ferilizer nnual ime series daa on he real price of ferilizer measured in Ghana cedis per kg of NPK or are employed. The real prices of ferilizer are obained by deflaing he nominal 4

5 price of ferilizer by he rural CPI (1997=100). The relevan ferilizer daa were obained from he Minisry of Food and griculure. Real Producer Price of Cocoa The daa on he real producer price of cocoa are obained by deflaing he nominal producer price of cocoa by he rural CPI (1997=100). nnual ime series daa on he producer price of cocoa in Ghana cedis per kg and he rural CPI were obained from he Ghana BOD and various issues of he Quarerly Diges of Saisics (QDS) published by he Ghana Saisical Service. Real Producer Price of Maize The real producer price of maize was obained by deflaing he nominal producer price of maize (Ghana cedis per 50 kg) by he rural CPI (1997=100). Daa on nominal producer price of maize were obained from he Minisry of Food and griculure, Ghana. Mean nnual Rainfall The mean annual rainfall daa covering Ghana measured in millimeers (mm) were obained from he Ghana Meeorological Service in ccra, Ghana. Irrigaion Infrasrucure The proporion of arable land under irrigaion was used o proxy access o irrigaion infrasrucure. I was compued as he raio of agriculural land under irrigaion (ha) o he oal arable land (ha) in Ghana. nnual ime series daa on arable land under irrigaion and oal arable land in he whole economy were obained from he various issues of he FO Producion Yearbook. 5

6 ppendix 2. Definiions of he variables and heir descripive saisics Variable Definiion Mean Sandard Maximum Minimum deviaion Dependen variables M Labor mobiliy from he agriculural secor o he non-agriculural secor. C rea deforesed ( 000 hecares) Independen variables R Populaion pressure in rural areas (millions per hecare). W Income in he agriculural secor relaive o he non-agriculural secor. N U Unemploymen rae in he non-agriculural secor. P Price of insecicides (Ghana cedis per lier) P Price of ferilizer (Ghana cedis per kg of NPK ). P Real producer price of cocoa (Ghana cedis per kg). P Real producer price of maize (Ghana cedis per 50 kg). RF Mean annual naional rainfall (mm) IR ccess o irrigaion infrasrucure (proporion of arable land irrigaed) D S Srucural adjusmen program dummy D ( S for , 0 = oherwise). Source: uhors compuaions 6

7 ppendix 3. Resuls of uni roo es Level Difference Series DF MCV Lag-Lengh DF MCV Lag-Lengh Conclusions M M C C R R W W N N U U P P P P P P P P RF RF IR IR Noes: ll variables are in heir raw form. The DF echnique ess H 0 : X 1 agains H 1 : X 0 ~ I(0). MCV are he asympoic criical values or he Mackinnon criical values for rejecion of hypohesis of a uni roo and hey are a he 5 per cen level of significance. Each DF equaion includes a drif and a rend erm. Source: uhors compuaions 7

8 ppendix 4. Empirical coinegraion resuls of he long-run relaionships Dependen Variable: ln M Variable Coefficien Sd. Error -Saisic Probabiliy NSTNT lnw ln R lnu N D S lnw ln R lnu N lnw ln R lnu N R Mean djused R S.D S.E.R RSS Observaions 36 BG(2) (0.2765) Dependen Variable: ln C NSTNT ln M ln R ln P ln P ln P ln P ln RF ln IR ln R ln P ln P ln P ln P ln RF ln IR ln R ln P ln P 8

9 ln P ln P ln RF ln IR R Mean djused R S.D S.E.R RSS Observaions 36 BG(2) (0.3436) Noes: Wih he excepion of he srucural adjusmen dummy, all he variables are in naural logarihms. denoes difference of he respecive variable. The insrumens used in he N N relevan equaions are ln R, ln U, ln P, ln P, ln, ln, ln, ln, ln, ln, U W P P P N N ln RF, ln R, ln U, ln W, ln P, ln P, ln P, ln P, ln IR, ln RF, ln R, U ln W, ln P, ln P, ln P, ln P, ln IR, ln RF. he variables. Source: uhors compuaions ln, See ppendix 2 for he definiions of IR 9

10 ppendix 5. Empirical error correcion modeling resuls of he shor-run relaionships Dependen Variable: ln M Variable Coefficien Sd. Error -Saisic Probabiliy NSTNT lnw ln R lnu N D S lnw ln R lnu N ec1, R Mean djused R S.D S.E.R RSS Observaions 36 BG (2) (0.1656) Dependen Variable : ln C Variable Coefficien Sd. Error -Saisic Probabiliy NSTNT ln M ln R ln P ln P ln P ln P ln RF ln IR ln R ln P ln P ln P ln P ln RF ln IR ln C ec2, R Mean dj. R S.D S.E.R RSS

11 Observaions 36 BG (2) (0.1226) Noes: Wih he excepion of he srucural adjusmen dummy, all variables are in naural logarihm. denoes difference of he respecive variable and ec denoes error correcion N erm. The insrumens used in he equaions are ln R, ln P, ln IR, ln, ln, ln, N ln W, ln P, ln P, ln IR, ln RF, ln U, RF ec2, 1 ln C. P ln,, P, RF, P, 1, See ppendix 2 for he definiions of he variables. Source: uhors compuaions P R U D P R 1, S 1 ec 1, References Fosu, K. Y. (1989), griculure in Ghana s pos-1970 developmen process, Paper Presened o he 5h Biennial Conference of he Wes frican Economic ssociaion, Lome, Togo. Johnson, B.F. and P. Kilby (1975), griculure and Srucural Transformaion: Economic Sraegies in Lae-Developing Counries, New York, US: Oxford Universiy Press. Scrieciu, S. S. (2007), Can economic causes of ropical deforesaion be idenified a a global level? Ecological Economics 62(3-4):