An analysis of factors affecting Thai agricultural exports to ASEAN by pooled mean group

Transcription

1 The Emprcal Econometrcs and Quantatve Economcs Letters Volume 4, Number 1, (March 2015): pp ISSN EEQEL all rghts reserved An analyss of factors affectng Tha agrcultural exports to ASEAN by pooled mean group Chanakarn Phasanslp Faculty of Economcs, Chang Ma Unversy Emal : nuned123@gmal.com ABSTRACT Ths study ams at the nvestgaton of selected economc factors affectng the export of Thaland s agrcultural goods to ASEAN countres, whch are Phlppnes, Malaysa, Vetnam Sngapore, and Indonesa. It also examnes the long term relatonshps between selected economc factors and export values. Samples used n ths study are selected from agrcultural goods whch have the hghest values of the exports from Thaland to ASEAN countres. They nclude rubber, rce, cassava, frozenchlleddred frus and corn. The varables under ths study nclude the export values of Thaland s agrcultural goods, gross domestc product, rato of consumer prce ndex, exchange rate, and populaton. The data are collected annually durng and are estmated by the pooled mean group estmator. The results of ths study ndcate that gross domestc product and populaton are drectly related to export values. However, the rato of consumer prce ndex and exchange rate are nversely related wh export values of agrcultural products. Keywords: Agrcultural sector, export, ASEAN, panel un root, PMG JEL Classfcaton: F14, O13, C23

2 46 EEQEL Vol. 4, No. 1, (March 2015) C. Phasanslp 1. Introducton Due to the volatly of today's global economy, many countres around the world have to launch new measures to boost an economc growth and the expanson of socety. In dong so, the nternatonal trade plays an mportant role. As of Thaland, the export values have been rapdly ncreased for the past 15 years. Ths s because of human resources and the lower wage rate whch gves Thaland the advantages to compete wh other countres n the world market. The major trade partners of Thaland are Uned State of Amerca, EU, Japan, Chna and ASEAN. The export values of Tha s commody apt to ncrease every year. The economy of Thaland reles heavly on export whch estmated to be around 63.6 percent out of GPD (n the year 2011).Consequences, the export sector created the push of nvestment expanson, created the demand for labor, attract foregn nvestor whch leads to a technologcal change, n turns, reduce the cost of producton and ncrease the value of natonal resources, and reduce the need of foregn goods and servces whch leads to an ncrease n natonal savng. A tendency of Tha s export to ASEAN s growng whle the export to Uned of Amerca, EU, and Japan apt to decrease. Hence, ASEAN could be the major trade partner n the near future. The ASEAN communy holds trade lberalzaton rule, that s, a free trade of agrcultural products between countres n the ASEAN. In a free trade market, the producer would lkely to produce goods and servces that have a comparatve advantage over the other, as such; Thaland has a comparatve advantage n producng agrcultural products for the past 7 years whch brng about 19,841 mllon US dollars to the country. The economc contracton n US and EU brng a negatve mpact to Tha s export of agrcultural product. Accordng to the statstc n the year 2012, the export values of Tha s agrcultural products had dropped due to the apprecaton of Tha bath and a contracton of global economy. Ths suaton had an mpact on agrcultural products such as rce, rubber, cassava, and fshery product. If Tha baht rses to 27 baht per US dollar, the value of export would drop by 10 percent. An apprecaton of Tha baht leaves Thaland a dsadvantage to compete n the world market. Only the monetary polcy had been ntroduced to ease such ssue. For these reasons, leaves a country no choce but to seek a dfferent market. And ASEAN s the answer because of a strong economy n the ASEAN countres. The currences of the countres n ASEAN also apprecate compare to US dollar and Euro. An apprecaton of currency does not have only the down sde but also the up sde, an apprecaton of Tha baht also has a posve mpact as the mport prce s declne. An mport of technology and machne for agrcultural sector would reduce the prce of producton n the long run. Addonal, the prce of world crude ol s relatvely cheap for Tha manufacturers (Prachachat newspaper, 2013). In the year 2012, Thaland had exported agrcultural products to 9 countres n ASEAN whch estmated to be 3,427 mllon US dollar, ncreasng to percent compared to the year 2007 whch had the value of 2,308 mllon US dollar. Also, the mport value from ASEAN s rsng to 981 mllon baht or percent ncreased compare to the prevous year. The value of Tha export and mport accounted for 4,408 mllon baht, 5.12 percent ncrease from the year The net export accounted for 2,446 mll US dollar. The trade partners of Thaland n ASEAN are Phlppnes, Malaysa, Vetnam, Sngapore, and Indonesa.

3 The Emprcal Econometrcs and Quantatve Economcs Letters Lerature revew Surya (2000) uses pooled tmes seres and cross sectonal data to analyss the export growth slowdown problem of Thaland n 1990s. S. Hansuksnwattana (2003) studes the relatonshp between rubber export growth and economc growth n Thaland. C. Tangsukkheesr (2007) studes the relatonshp between total agrcultural exports value and the economc growth measured by GDP of Thaland. S. Techanant (2008) studes the mpact of real exchange rate on agrcultural export value of Thaland. B. Thongpunchang s study mpacts of real foregn exchange rate on fru export of Thaland. And P. Thammawong study the relatonshps between economc growth of crop sector and export quanty of Hom Mal rce of Thaland. Dechumnouyporn and Surya (2012) studes the roles of nformaton and communcaton technology on export competveness of Tha small and medumszed enterprses. Whle, Fdlzan Muhammad (2012) and Jamlah Mohd Mahydeen (2012) use the same model of Pooled Mean Group to analyze the varables of economcs. 3. Methodology The panel un root (the statonary testng of valuaton) ncludng The LLC Test, IPS Test, FsherADF Test, and PP Test are used n ths research. After that, the dagnose of correlaton of data s mplemented based on the theory from Nazloglu (2012). The model of the export value s as follow: ln EXP 0 1 ln GDP 2 ln CPI 3 ln EXR 4 ln POP (1) Where: t = Tme seres (t = 1, 2, 3,, 15) between the year EXP = The export value of commody (t) to the trade partner () GDP = GDP of the trade partner () CPI = The CPI as a rato of Thaland and trade partner () EXR = POP = Yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner (). The number of populaton whn the country of trade partner () = Crosssectonal data (Phlppnes, Malaysa, Vetnam, Sngapore and Indonesa) Then, the model estmaton of an export value of Tha agrcultural products usng pooled mean group estmator has been mplemented. The model of economc factor correlaton s as follow: y p 1 1 * * y x y x (2),1 Where: = Crosssectonal data (Phlppnes, Malaysa, Vetnam, Sngapore and Indonesa) j 1 j, t j q 1 j 0, t j t = Tme seres (t = 1, 2, 3,, 15) between the year j = Perod of the lagged dependent varable = The group specfc errorcorrecton coeffcents j

4 48 EEQEL Vol. 4, No. 1, (March 2015) C. Phasanslp 4. Data y = An export value of 5 dfferent Tha agrcultural products to the trade partners n ASEAN (rce, rubber, cassava, frozen, chlled, and dred frus, and corn). x = Economc factors that has an mpact on export value of Tha agrcultural products to the trade partner () at tme (t), = The nterval regresson j of y y t j, = The nterval regresson j of X x t j y y, t j = The nterval regresson j of X x, t j = The nterval regresson j of y = y y, t 1 = x x, t 1 x =,..., )' ( 1 The components of varables n ths research ncluded the dependent varables whch s 5 dfferent agrcultural products that has the hghest value of export from Thaland to trade partners n ASEAN. And ndependent varables whch are the Gross domestc product (GDP) of the trade partners, Consumer prce ndex (CPI), yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner, and number of populaton whn the country of trade partner. Dependent varable s a dfferent agrcultural products that has the hghest value of export (EXP) from Thaland to trade partners n ASEAN, that s, rce, rubber, cassava, frozen, chlled, and dred frus, and corn. Studyng each of components separately one by one. Usng US dollar as a un of export value, nterchange nto logarhm yelds ln EXP. ln EXP s natural logarhm of export value of Tha s agrcultural product. Independent varable s an economc factor that has an mpact on an export value of Tha agrcultural products. In ths research, there are 4 economc factors that have been put to the study: 1. Gross domestc product (GDP) of Phlppnes, Malaysa, Vetnam, Sngapore, and Indonesa. Usng US dollar as a un of GPD, nterchange nto logarhm yelds ln GDP. ln GDP s natural logarhm of GDP of trade partners. 2. Consumer prce ndex (CPI) as a rato of Thaland and trade partners (Phlppnes, Malaysa, Vetnam, Sngapore, and Indonesa). Usng US dollar as a un of CPI, nterchange nto logarhm yelds ln CPI. ln CPI s natural logarhm of CPI as a rato of Thaland and trade partners.

5 The Emprcal Econometrcs and Quantatve Economcs Letters Yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner (EXR) snce the year 1998 to 2012.Usng US dollar as a un of EXR, nterchange nto logarhm yelds ln EXR. ln EXR s natural logarhm of yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner. 4. Number of populaton (POP) whn the country of trade partner snce the year of 1998 to These countres ncluded Phlppnes, Malaysa, Vetnam, Sngapore, and Indonesa. Counted as people, nterchange nto logarhm yelds ln POP. ln POP 5. Results s natural logarhm of populaton whn the country of trade partner. The results of ths research can be dvded nto 2 parts; the frst part s the result of statonary testng on agrcultural products data usng the LLC Test, IPS Test, FsherADF Test, and PP Test. Such agrcultural products are rce, rubber, cassava, frozen, chlled, and dred frus, and corn. Table 5.1 shows the results of the study. Table 5.1: Statonary tested results of agrcultural products of Thaland Varables lnexp 1 lnexp 2 lnexp 3 lnexp 4 lnexp 5 lngdp lncpi lnexr lnpop Statonary test results of each method LLC IPS PP ADF *** *** *** *** *** (0.0025) *** *** (0.0034) *** (0.0011) *** *** *** *** *** ** (0.0132) *** ** (0.0149) *** (0.0003) *** *** *** *** *** *** (0.0075) *** ** (0.0156) *** (0.0002) *** *** *** *** *** *** (0.0055) *** (0.0002) ** (0.0279) *** (0.0011) *** Level 1 st dfferent 1 st dfferent 1 st dfferent 1 st dfferent Level I(0) 1 st dfferent 1 st dfferent 1 st dfferent Level I(0)

6 50 EEQEL Vol. 4, No. 1, (March 2015) C. Phasanslp Table 5.1 shows the results of statonary testng on agrcultural products data usng un root test (4 dfferent ways). The results shows the statonary data at level I(0)when testng wh LLC, IPS, PP, and ADF appled to the varables of corn export value and varables of populaton n trade partner country. And the statonary data at level 1 st dfferent or referred to the rest of the varables. Although, the varables may have dfferent level n statonary testng but stll manage to run a model estmaton usng Pooled mean group (Pesaran, Shn, and Smh, 1998). After that, the testng of data contegraton was mplemented. The second part s the model estmaton usng Pooled mean group estmators, whch s, the group estmaton of average data and the results of agrcultural products. The focus n ths part am at studyng the economc factors n each of the trade partner countres, that s, Phlppnes, Malaysa, Vetnam, Sngapore, and Indonesa. The results are as follow: Table 5.2: Pooled mean group estmators results of rubber Varables LongRun Coeffcent All Countres Varables ShortRun Coeffcent Phlppnes Malaysa Vetnam Sngapore Indonesa lngdp *** lngdp * (0.0930) (0.6160) *** (0.0770) (0.0050) (0.7440) lncpi *** lncpi (0.1410) (0.7440) ** (0.4420) (0.0050) lnexr *** lnexr (0.3320) (0.3620) *** (0.4660) ** (0.0230) lnpop *** lnpop *** (0.4610) * (0.4700) ** * (0.0010) Cont (0.7480) (0.3910) * (0.3500) (0.0090) * (0.0500) EC *** (0.1230) *** (0.0420) *** ** * Table 5.2 shows a statstcally sgnfcant of the equlbrum adaptably n the long runs (EC 1 ) appled only to Phlppnes, Vetnam, Sngapore, and Indonesa. In the part of economc factors that has an mpact on exported value at equlbrum pont n the long runs whch shows the negatve relatonshp of varables of rubber export value when run wh varables of Gross domestc product (GDP), Consumer prce ndex (CPI), and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner (EXR). That s, when the numbers of these varables ncrease wll reduce the export value of rubber. But the varable of populaton shows a posve relatonshp wh the export value of rubber. An ncrease of populaton means the hgher of exported value.

7 The Emprcal Econometrcs and Quantatve Economcs Letters 51 When compared each of the countres found that Vetnam had the hghest EC 1 coeffcent. That s Vetnam has the hghest adaptably when facng the economc phenomenal that may causes an mpact to export value of rubber. It should be noted that the lagged perod shown n Table 5.2 comes from the modfcaton of the varable such that makes the model f better to the data. Ths can be seen by the results of the sgnfcance of other varables n the model. For example, when the lagged perod s 1 but the model does not f the data whch many varables n the model are nsgnfcant, Indcates that the lagged perod s not suable. However, when the model changes the lagged perod to be 2 and makes the model f better to the data; Many more varables become sgnfcant. Then the lagged perod 2 s more suable than 1. Ths s the justfcaton of the lagged perod n ths study both for the longrun and short run analyss. Table 5.3: Pooledmean group estmators results of rce Varables LongRun Coeffcen t Varables ShortRun Coeffcent All Countres Phlppne s Malaysa Vetnam Sngapore Indonesa lngdp 1 lncpi 1 lnexr 1 lnpop *** *** *** *** lngdp 2 lncpi 2 lnexr 1 lnpop (0.7700) (0.5330) (0.3130) 1549*** (0.0010) (0.4840) (0.6440) * (0.0760) *** (0.3150) ** (0.1060) (0.7750) ** (0.0160) (0.3300) (0.5010) 4.706*** (0.0010) (0.9880) *** (0.1380) *** (0.6440) Cont *** *** *** (0.3190) *** EC *** *** *** (0.2980) *** Table 5.3 shows a statstcally sgnfcant of the equlbrum adaptably n the long runs (EC 1 )appled only to Phlppnes, Malaysa, Vetnam, and Indonesa. Also shows the posve relatonshp of rce export value when run wh varables of Gross domestc product (GDP), Consumer prce ndex (CPI), and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner (EXR). That s, when the numbers of these varables ncrease wll ncrease the export value of rce.but the varable of populaton shows a negatve relatonshp wh the export value of rce. An ncrease of populaton means the lower of exported value. When compared each of the countres found that Malaysa had the hghest EC 1 coeffcent. That s Malaysa has the hghest adaptably when facng the economc phenomenal that may causes an mpact to export value of rce.

8 52 EEQEL Vol. 4, No. 1, (March 2015) C. Phasanslp Table 5.4 shows a statstcally sgnfcant of the equlbrum adaptably n the long runs (EC 1 )appled only to Phlppnes, Vetnam, and Indonesa. Also shows the posve relatonshp of cassava s export value when run wh varables of Gross domestc product (GDP), and populaton of trade partner country (POP).That s, when the numbers of these varables ncrease wll ncrease the export value of cassava. But the varable of Consumer prce ndex (CPI) and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner (EXR) shows a negatve relatonshp wh the export value of cassava. An ncrease n these varables means the lower of exported value. Table 5.4: Pooledmean group estmators results of cassava Varables lngdp 1 lncpi 1 lnexr 2 lnpop 1 LongRun Coeffcent All Countres ** (0.0420) *** (0.9000) ** (0.0120) Varables lngdp 2 lncpi 2 lnexr 1 lnpop 1 Cont EC 1 ShortRun Coeffcent Phlppnes Malaysa Vetnam (0.1670) *** *** (0.0090) ** (0.0160) (0.1270) *** (0.1250) (0.8450) (0.3920) (0.8670) (0.7870) (0.7710) * (0.0840) (0.2280) *** (0.0100) (0.9840) (0.2770) *** ** (0.0420) * (0.0780) *** (0.0030) *** (0.0020) *** *** (0.0070) *** Indonesa ** (0.0290) (0.1560) (0.2080) (0.5720) (0.2910) *** (0.0050) When compared each of the countres found that Sngapore had the hghest EC 1 coeffcent. That s Sngapore has the hghest adaptably when facng the economc phenomenal that may causes an mpact to export value of cassava Table 5.5 shows a statstcally sgnfcant of the equlbrum adaptably n the long runs (EC 1 )appled to every country. Also shows the posve relatonshp of frozen, chlled and dred fru s export value when run wh varables of Gross domestc product (GDP). That s, when the numbers of GDP ncrease wll ncrease the export value of frozen, chlled and dred fru.but varables of Consumer prce ndex (CPI),populaton of trade partner country (POP), and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner (EXR) shows a negatve relatonshp wh the export value of frozen, chlled and dred fru. An ncrease n these varables means the lower of exported value. When compared each of the countres found that Vetnam had the hghest EC 1 coeffcent. That s Vetnam has the hghest adaptably when facng the economc phenomenal that may causes an mpact to export value of frozen, chlled and dred fru.

9 The Emprcal Econometrcs and Quantatve Economcs Letters 53 Table 5.5: Pooledmean group estmators results of frozen, chlled and dred fru Varable s lngdp 1 lncpi 1 lnexr 1 lnpop 2 LongRun Coeffcent All Countres Varables *** lngdp *** lncpi *** lnexr *** lnpop 2 Cont EC 1 ShortRun Coeffcent Phlppnes Malaysa Vetnam Sngapore Indonesa (0.4660) (0.9830) (0.1970) (0.5210) * (0.0630) * (0.0550) *** *** (0.0080) *** (0.0020) (0.2840) *** *** (0.4510) (0.1160) (0.5560) * (0.0700) ** (0.0460) ** (0.0300) ** (0.0280) ** (0.0250) *** (0.0060) (0.8540) *** (0.0030) *** (0.4500) (0.1190) ** (0.0110) (0.2140) ** * *** Table 5.6: Pooledmean group estmators results of corn Varables lngdp 1 lncpi 1 LongRun Coeffcent All Countres Varables (0.6080) lngdp *** lncpi 1 ShortRun Coeffcent Phlppnes Malaysa Vetnam Sngapore Indonesa (0.6630) (0.1830) (0.7500) ** (0.0460) ** ( ) * (0.0920) ** (0.0270) (0.4950) *** (0.0020) (0.4540) lnexr 1 lnpop ** (0.0450) lnexr ** (0.0290) lnpop (0.9620) (0.3170) (0.4780) (0.1820) ** (0.0140) (0.9840) (0.3390) (0.4250) *** (0.0090) *** Cont EC (0.3180) *** (0.3700) *** * (0.0720) (0.3170) (0.7680) (0.1640) (0.1260) ***

10 54 EEQEL Vol. 4, No. 1, (March 2015) C. Phasanslp Table 5.6 shows a statstcally sgnfcant of the equlbrum adaptably n the long runs (EC 1 ) appled only to Phlppnes, Malaysa, and Indonesa. Also shows the posve relatonshp of corn s export value when run wh varables of populaton of trade partner country (POP). That s, when the numbers of populaton varables ncrease wll ncrease the export value of corn. But the varable of Gross domestc product (GDP),Consumer prce ndex (CPI), and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner (EXR) shows a negatve relatonshp wh the export value of corn. An ncrease n these varables means the lower of exported value. When compared each of the countres found that Malaysa had the hghest EC 1 coeffcent. That s Malaysa has the hghest adaptably when facng the economc phenomenal that may causes an mpact to export value of corn. 6. Conclusons The concluson of ths study can be dvded nto 2 parts: Part 1, the panel un root test of every varable both dependent and ndependent varables. In dong so, the Levn, Ln, and Chu (LLC Test), Im, Pesaran and Shn (IPS Test), PP Test, and Augmented DckkeyFller (ADF Test) have been appled to statonary testng of data. In rubber product, the test result shows the statonary of populaton n trade partner country varables at level I(0) whle the other varables ncluded export value of rubber varables, gross domestc product (GDP) of trade partner varables, The consumer prce ndex (CPI) as a rato of Thaland and trade partner varables, and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner varables shows the statonary of data at 1 st dfferent level or. In rce product, the test result shows the statonary of populaton n trade partner country varables at level I(0) whle the other varables ncluded export value of rce varables, gross domestc product (GDP) of trade partner varables, The consumer prce ndex (CPI) as a rato of Thaland and trade partner varables, and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner varables shows the statonary of data at 1 st dfferent level or. In cassava product, the test result shows the statonary of populaton n trade partner country varables at level I(0) whle the other varables ncluded export value of cassava varables, gross domestc product (GDP) of trade partner varables, The consumer prce ndex (CPI) as a rato of Thaland and trade partner varables, and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner varables shows the statonary of data at 1 st dfferent level or. In frozen, chlled, and dred fru product, the test result shows the statonary of populaton n trade partner country varables at level I(0) whle the other varables ncluded export value of frozen, chlled, and dred fru varables, gross domestc product (GDP) of trade partner varables, The consumer prce ndex (CPI) as a rato of Thaland and trade partner varables, and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner varables shows the statonary of data at 1 st dfferent level or. In corn product, the test result shows the statonary of populaton n trade partner country varables at level I(0) whle the other varables ncluded export value of corn varables, gross domestc product (GDP) of trade partner varables, The consumer prce ndex (CPI) as a rato of Thaland and trade partner varables, and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar

11 The Emprcal Econometrcs and Quantatve Economcs Letters 55 and a currency of trade partner varables shows the statonary of data at 1 st dfferent level or. From the result of statonary testng usng 4 dfferent methods found that the data s statonary. That s, the data s effcency enough to test wh panel contegraton. Even though, the data has dfferent level of statonary but stll be able to estmated usng pooled mean group estmator (PMGE) whch consdered beng the advantage of usng pooled mean group estmators. Part 2, the results on economc factors usng pooled mean group estmator (PMGE).Such economc factors ncluded the export value of agrcultural products, gross domestc product (GDP) of trade partner, the consumer prce ndex (CPI) as a rato of Thaland and trade partner, and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner, and number of populaton n trade partner country all created an mpact to Tha s export value of agrcultural products. The results of estmaton are as follow: 1. The estmaton of rubber export value shows a posve relatonshp wh number of populaton n trade partner country, that s, the hgher n number of populaton n trade partner country leads to a hgher value of rubber exported. But the estmaton shows a negatve relatonshp wh the consumer prce ndex (CPI) of trade partner meanng an ncrease n CPI leads to a decrease n value of rubber exported. The export value of rubber s contegrated wh economc factors of Phlppnes, Vetnam, Sngapore, and Indonesa n the long run. 2. The estmaton of rce export value shows a posve relatonshp wh gross domestc product (GDP) and yearly average exchange rate between US dollar and a currency of trade partner of trade partner, that s, the hgher n number of gross domestc product of trade partner or an apprecaton of trade partner s currency leads to a hgher value of rce exported. The export value of rce s contegrated wh economc factors of Phlppnes, Malaysa, Vetnam, and Indonesa n the long run. 3. The estmaton of cassava export value shows a posve relatonshp wh gross domestc product (GDP) and number of populaton n trade partner s country, that s, the hgher n number of gross domestc product of trade partner or an ncrease n number of populaton leads to a hgher value of cassava exported. But the estmaton shows a negatve relatonshp wh the consumer prce ndex (CPI) of trade partner meanng a declne n CPI causes n ncrease n cassava export value.the export value of cassava s contegrated wh economc factors of Phlppnes, Vetnam, Sngapore, and Indonesa n the long run. 4. The estmaton of frozen, chlled, and dred fru export value shows a posve relatonshp wh gross domestc product (GDP) of trade partner, that s, the hgher n number of gross domestc product of trade partner leads to an ncrease n value of frozen, chlled, and dred fru exported. But the estmaton shows a negatve relatonshp wh the consumer prce ndex (CPI) of trade partner meanng a decrease n CPI causes n ncrease n frozen, chlled, and dred fru export value. The export value of frozen, chlled, and dred fru s contegrated wh economc factors of Phlppnes, Malaysa, Vetnam, Sngapore, and Indonesa n the long run. 5. The estmaton of corn export value shows a posve relatonshp wh number of populaton n trade partner s country, that s, the hgher n number of populaton n trade partner country leads to a hgher value of corn exported. But the estmaton shows a negatve relatonshp wh the consumer prce ndex (CPI) of trade partner meanng an ncrease n CPI

12 56 EEQEL Vol. 4, No. 1, (March 2015) C. Phasanslp leads to a decrease n value of corn exported. The export value of corn s contegrated wh economc factors of Phlppnes, Malaysa, and Indonesa n the long run. ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would lke to express my specal thanks of gratude to my advser Asst.Prof. Kanchana Chokethaworn and Dr. Chukat Chaboonsr who gave me the golden opportuny to do ths wonderful research, whch also helped me a lot n tranng and I came to know about so many new thngs and theores. I am really thankful to them. Secondly I would also lke to thank my parents and frends who helped me a lot n fnshng ths thess whn the lmed tme. REFERENCES Ch, M.M Exchange Rate Volatly and Exports: New Emprcal Evdence from the Emergng East Asan Economes. Retreved December 7, 2014, from 1/WE_Ch_Rzov_Wllenbockel.pdf Dechumnouyporn, Weeruta and Komsan Surya Roles of nformaton and communcaton technology on export competveness of Tha small and medumszed enterprses, The Emprcal Econometrcs and Quantatve Economcs Letters 2, 1 (March 2012): Department of Internatonal Trade Promoton Introducton to exportng. Accessed:8 June2014, Fromhttp:// Department of Trade Negotatons Major trade partner of Thaland and ASEAN. Accessed:8 June 2557, From Furuoka, Fumaka Exports and Economc Growth n ASEAN Countres. The IUP Journal of Appled Economcs, 2, pp Mahydeen, Jamlah Mohd A Pooled Mean Group Estmaton on ICT Infrastructure and Economc Growth n ASEAN5 Countres. Retreved December 7, 2014, from vol6n o2/bab08.pdf Mngmaneenakn, Wanrag Prncple of nternatonal ecomony. Ffth edon, Bangkok: Dogya Group. Mnstry of Agrculture and Cooperatves Towards ASEAN communy 2015 of agrcultural sector. Accessed:14 June2014, From wt_news.php?nd=6 Pesaran, H Pooled Mean Group Estmaton of Dynamc Heterogeneous Panels.Retreved Febuary 14, 2014, fromhttp:// pmge.pdf Reyna, O. T Panel Data Analyss Fxed & Random Effects. Retreved December 7, 2014, from Srkamporn, Boonchuay Prncple of econometrcs.bangkok:thammasat Unversy. Surya, Komsan An Analyss of Export Growth Slowdown Problem of Thaland n 1990s. Master thess, Faculty of Economcs, Chulalongkorn Unversy.