Tech Mahindra ACCUMULATE. Performance Highlights CMP. `955 Target Price `1,070. 2QFY2013 Result Update IT. Investment Period 12 months

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1 2QFY2013 Result Update IT November 5, 2012 Tech Mahindra Performance Highlights (` cr) 2QFY13 1QFY13 % chg (qoq) 2QFY12 % chg (yoy) Net revenue 1,631 1, , EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) (69)bp bp Adj. PAT* (12.5) ; Note:*exclude one-offs For 2QFY2013, Tech Mahindra reported healthy set of results which were in-line with the expectations on the revenue front but the operational performance of the company exceeded our as well as the street s expectations. We believe the increased traction in non-bt accounts and consolidation of Hutchison Global Services (HGS, US$170mn annual revenue run rate) and Comviva (~US$70mn annual revenue run rate) will offset the decline in BT and will drive growth going forward. We maintain Accumulate rating on the stock. Result highlights: For 2QFY2013, Tech Mahindra reported USD revenue of US$299mn, up 6.4% qoq, aided by acquisition of HGS (continued US$13mn). In INR terms, revenue came in at `1,631cr, up 5.7% qoq. Despite having ~150bp qoq wage hike impact, the company s EBITDA margin declined by only 69bp qoq to 20.7%, aided by continuous cost optimization measures. The PAT came in at `296cr, down 12.5%, impacted by ~`69cr forex loss. Outlook and valuation: The management indicated that the company remains confident of growth from the non-bt business with it continuing to see a robust deal pipeline across geographies. The company expects to close some of the managed services opportunities in 3QFY2013. Also, the deal pipeline looks healthy in the US and emerging markets. But the management witnessed that the decision making cycle has become elongated and decision making continues to be extremely slow as customers scrutinize every aspect of expenditure. We expect a CAGR of 10.1% and 14.1% in USD and INR revenue over FY E. We expect a 19.5% and 11.1% CAGR in EBITDA and PAT of Tech Mahindra over FY E. PAT of Tech Mahindra and Satyam for FY2014 are expected to be at `830cr and `1,225cr respectively. Taking the new share count of 23.08cr shares (post merger of Tech Mahindra and Mahindra Satyam) into account, the consolidated EPS comes in at `89.0. We value Tech Mahindra at 12x FY2013E EPS of `89.0 and maintain Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `1,070. Key financials (Consolidated, Indian GAAP) Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E Net sales 4,625 5,140 5,490 6,603 7,150 % chg Net profit ,095 1,232 1,353 % chg (30.9) (8.3) EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ACCUMULATE CMP `955 Target Price `1,070 Investment Period 12 months Stock Info Sector IT Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) 10, Beta 52 Week High / Low /537 Avg. Daily Volume 88,536 Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code 10 18,763 5,704 TEML.BO TECHM.IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 56.7 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 18.7 FII / NRIs / OCBs 15.1 Indian Public / Others 9.5 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex Tech Mahindra Ankita Somani Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

2 Exhibit 1: 2QFY2013 performance (Consolidated, Indian GAAP) (` cr) 2QFY13 1QFY13 % chg (qoq) 2QFY12 % chg (yoy) 1HFY13 1HFY12 % chg (yoy) Net revenue 1,631 1, , ,175 2, Cost of revenue 1, ,002 1, Gross profit , SG&A expense EBITDA Dep. and amortization (5.1) EBIT Interest Other income (64) (17) 59 (81) 105 PBT (17.8) Income taxes (57.1) 39 (36.1) (7.3) PAT (5.6) Minority interest PAT after minority interest (5.6) Profit from associates Exceptional item Reported PAT (12.5) Adj. PAT (12.5) Diluted EPS (12.5) Gross margin (%) (61)bp bp bp EBITDA margin (%) (69)bp bp bp EBIT margin (%) (91)bp bp bp PAT margin (%) (130)bp bp (63)bp Exhibit 2: 2QFY2013 Actual vs. Angel estimates (` cr) Actual Estimate Var. (%) Net revenue 1,631 1, EBITDA margin (%) bp PAT* (14.5) ; Note: *Excludes share of profits from Mahindra Satyam Healthy performance For 2QFY2013, Tech Mahindra reported USD revenue of US$2993mn, up 6.4% qoq, aided by acquisition of HGS. HGS contributed ~US$13mn to the revenues (one-month contribution). On organic basis, revenues grew by 1.6% qoq. USD revenues from non-bt accounts grew by ~4% qoq (organic basis) while revenue from BT declined by 2.5% qoq. In INR terms, the revenue came in at `1,631cr, up 5.7% qoq. The management indicated the possibility of further decline in the revenues from BT account going forward because of continued restructuring activity in BT, though the quantum of decline in BT will only be clearer in the coming quarters. While the revenue run rate from BT has declined in the recent quarters, Tech Mahindra s share of BT s wallet has gone up by ~2% during the restructuring period. November 5,

3 Tech Mahindra announced two large deal wins during the quarter, both in Europe, one with a TCV of US$100m and the other from UK ranging between US$70-80m. Exhibit 3: Trend in revenue growth for non-bt accounts (US $mn) (%) (5.5) 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 (4) (8) Non BT qoq growth Exhibit 4: Revenue trend for BT account (US $mn) (2.8) (2.5) 0 (2) (4) (%) 100 (5.5) 101 (7.8) (6) (8) 95 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 BT qoq growth (10) During the quarter, the company s revenue from telecom service providers (TSPs) (~77% contribution to revenue) grew by 1.6% qoq to `1,260cr, while revenue from telecom equipment manufacturers (TEMs; ~6% contribution to revenue) declined by 2.4% qoq to `102cr. Utilization level flat The company s utilization level remained almost flat qoq to 74% in 2QFY2013. The company s overall headcount (organic basis excluding HGS) declined for the fourth consecutive quarter, as a result of rationalization in domestic employees and due to closures in certain projects. The management indicated that the company will continue with its just-in-time hiring policy and will hire laterals on a need basis. Including HGS, the overall headcount grew by 9,849 employees, taking its total employee base to 50,479. November 5,

4 Exhibit 5: Trend in utilization rate 12,000 10,000 8, Net addition no. 6, , ,000 2, (385) (65)(184) (2,000) (1,255) (1,447) (1,627) 74 10,395 (544) (%) 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 S/w professionals BPO professionals Utilization (%) Operating margin surprises positively In 2QFY2013, despite having ~150bp qoq wage hike impact on operating margins, the company s EBITDA margin decline by only 69bp qoq to 20.7%. Tech Mahindra s operating margins were aided by continuous cost optimization measures and focus on improving profitability from lower performing projects. HGS integration also negatively impacted operating margins by ~30bp qoq. From 3QFY2012, full quarter impact of HGS will flow in. This will again have some negative impact on operating margins of the company as HGS (being a BPO) has margins that are lower than the company s average margins. Exhibit 6: Margin trend (%) QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 Gross profit margin EBITDA margin EBIT margin November 5,

5 Client pyramid The active client base of the company stood at 126. The company s top 5-10 clients drove its growth in 2QFY2013 by registering 65.5% qoq USD revenue growth, aided by HGS. The company added one client in US$50mn+ revenue bracket. Exhibit 7: Client metrics Particulars 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 US$1mn 2mn US$2mn 5mn US$5mn 10mn US$10mn 15mn US$15mn 20mn US$20mn 25mn US$25mn 50mn US$50mn Active clients Exhibit 8: Trend in revenue growth of top clients (qoq) (%) (2.8) (0.1) (10) (2.5) (5.5) (7.8) (20) (12.2) (2.5) 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 BT Next 4 accounts Next 5 accounts Outlook and valuation The management indicated that the company remains confident of growth from the non-bt business with it continuing to see a robust deal pipeline across geographies and expects to close some of the managed services opportunities in 3QFY2013. Also, the deal pipeline looks healthy in the US and emerging markets. But the management witnessed that the decision making cycle has become elongated and decision making continues to be extremely slow as customers scrutinize every aspect of expenditure. We believe the increased traction in Non-BT accounts and consolidation of HGS (US$170mn annual revenue run rate) and Comviva (~US$70mn annual revenue run rate) will offset the decline in BT and will drive growth going forward. We expect a CAGR of 10.1% and 14.1% in USD and INR revenue over FY E. November 5,

6 The PAT is expected to be supported by 1) the deep in-the-money hedges of 260mn and US$570mn with participation rates at 86.0 INR/GBP and 54.1 INR/USD, boosting forex gains for the company; and 2) healthy Mahindra Satyam s earnings. We expect a 19.5% and 11.1% CAGR in EBITDA and PAT of Tech Mahindra over FY E. PAT of Tech Mahindra and Satyam for FY2014 are expected to be at `830cr and `1,225cr respectively. Taking the new share count of 23.08cr shares (post merger of Tech Mahindra and Mahindra Satyam) into account, the consolidated EPS comes in at `89.0. We value Tech Mahindra at 12x FY2013E EPS of `89.0 and maintain Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `1,070. Exhibit 9: One-year forward PE (x) 2,500 2,200 1,900 1,600 (`) 1,300 1, Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Price Note: P/E includes share of profits from Mahindra Satyam 2QFY2011 onwards. Exhibit 10: Recommendation summary Company Reco CMP Tgt Price Upside FY2014E FY2014E FY E FY2014E FY2014E (`) (`) (%) EBITDA (%) P/E (x) EPS CAGR (%) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%) HCL Tech Accumulate Hexaware Buy Infosys Accumulate 2,379 2, Infotech Enterprises Neutral KPIT Cummins Accumulate Mahindra Satyam Accumulate MindTree Accumulate Mphasis Neutral (0.4) (0.5) NIIT^ Accumulate (1.5) Persistent Neutral TCS Accumulate 1,329 1, Tech Mahindra* Accumulate Wipro Buy Note: ^Valued on SOTP basis,* EPS CAGR includes earnings from Mahindra Satyam November 5,

7 Company Background Tech Mahindra was founded in 1986 as a joint venture between Mahindra Group and British Telecom (BT). Later on, it started servicing other external clients as well (solely in the telecom industry), though still it derives ~37% of its revenue from BT. In June 2009, Tech Mahindra acquired a 42.7% stake in erstwhile Satyam Computers (now Mahindra Satyam). Profit and loss statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP) Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E Net sales 4,625 5,140 5,490 6,603 7,150 Cost of revenues 2,871 3,403 3,678 4,278 4,801 Gross profit 1,754 1,737 1,811 2,326 2,350 % of net sales SG&A expenses ,019 1,037 % of net sales EBITDA 1,133 1, ,307 1,313 % of net sales Dep. and amortization % of net sales EBIT ,114 1,106 % of net sales Interest expense Other income, net of forex (39) 117 Profit before tax ,129 Provision for tax % of PBT Recurring PAT Share from associates Exceptional item (9) (143) (68) - - Minority interest Profit aft minority interest ,095 1,232 1,353 Adjusted PAT ,163 1,232 1,353 Fully diluted EPS (`) November 5,

8 Balance sheet (Consolidated, Indian GAAP) Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E Equity capital Preference capital Share premium Profit and loss 1,783 2,198 2,998 4,144 5,402 Other reserves Net worth 2,887 3,351 4,051 5,197 6,455 Secured loans Unsecured loans 1, Total debt 2,135 1,183 1, Other long term liability Long-term provisions Minority interest Total capital employed 5,035 5,088 5,796 6,867 7,875 Gross block 1,131 1,287 1,514 1,670 1,870 Accumulated depreciation (527) (670) (832) (1,025) (1,232) Net block Capital WIP Total fixed assets Investments 3,015 2,870 3,427 3,956 4,510 Deferred tax asset, net Long term loans and advances Inventories Sundry debtors 1,042 1,036 1,317 1,411 1,528 Cash and cash equivalents Loans and advances Sundry creditors (461) (247) (365) (377) (416) Other liabilities (129) (558) (608) (600) (600) Provision (277) (162) (151) (198) (215) Working capital 1,068 1,061 1,081 1,590 1,992 Total capital deployed 5,035 5,088 5,796 6,867 7,875 November 5,

9 Cash flow statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP) Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E Pre tax profit from operations ,005 1,012 Depreciation Expenses (deferred)/written off/others (9) (99) Pre tax cash from operations ,374 1,683 1,742 Other income/prior period ad (39) 117 Net cash from operations ,468 1,643 1,859 Tax (144) (132) (144) (218) (299) Cash profits ,324 1,425 1,560 (Inc)/dec in Sundry debtors (140) 6 (281) (94) (117) Inventories (0) Loans and advances (377) (53) 81 (128) (64) Sundry creditors (8) (214) Others (14) Net trade working capital (539) 55 (44) (170) (126) Cashflow from operating activities ,280 1,256 1,434 (Inc)/dec in fixed assets (407) 104 (333) (186) (230) (Inc)/dec in investments (2,580) 145 (557) (529) (554) (Inc)/dec in other non current assets (8) (305) 83 (20) (30) Cashflow from investing activities (2,995) (57) (807) (735) (814) Inc/(dec) in debt 2,135 (952) (56) (144) (279) Inc/(dec) in deferred revenue Inc/(dec) in equity/premium Inc/(dec) in minority interest 3 2 (16) - - Addition to reserves on amalgamation 288 (144) (394) - - Dividends (50) (61) (82) (87) (95) Cashflow from financing activities 2,381 (736) (498) (181) (344) Cash generated/(utilized) (320) 48 (25) Cash at start of the year Cash at end of the year November 5,

10 Key Ratios (Consolidated, Indian GAAP) Y/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE (%) Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios( x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days November 5,

11 Research Team Tel: Website: DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Tech Mahindra 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%) November 5,

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