Religare Investment Call
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- Abraham Gaines
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1 Oct-17 v-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 BUY CMP (Rs) 190 Target Price (Rs) 247 Potential Upside 29.7% Sensex 33,349 Nifty 10,030 Key Stock data BSE Code NSE Code Bloomberg AMBUJA CEM ACEM:IN Shares o/s, Cr (FV 1) Market Cap (Rs Cr) 37,817 3M Avg Volume 37,52, week H/L 289/189 Shareholding Pattern (%) Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Promoter FII DII Others Year relative price performance Research Analyst ACL Nifty 50 Mehernosh Panthaki, CA Mehernosh.panthaki@religare.com Revenue growth intact, but margins disappoint Ambuja Cements Ltd (ACL) reported subdued numbers for Q3CY18. While revenue growth at 12.7% YoY was in line with our estimates, the company disappointed on the profit front with a marginal 1.1% growth in EBITDA and 34.4% YoY decline in PAT. EBITDA margins contracted 158bps YoY to 13.7%, impacted by higher power & fuel and freight cost. However, notwithstanding 1-2 quarters of muted growth, we remain positive on ACL s long term growth prospects, given the anticipated revival in the cement demand and company s efforts towards brand building & distribution expansion. We maintain Buy on the stock with revised target price of Rs 247. Q3CY18 Result Update: Net Revenue (standalone) grew by 12.7% YoY to Rs 2,613.9cr, led by healthy volume growth of 9% (at 5.5 MT) and decent improvement in realizations. Healthy demand environment in the company s key markets resulted in good volume offtake, while increasing sales of premium products (Compocem, Roof Special and Cool Walls) kept the realizations healthy. The cement capacity utilization stood at 74% during the quarter, compared to 68% in Q3CY17. EBITDA grew marginally by 1.1% YoY to Rs 358.2cr, while EBITDA margins contracted 158bps YoY to 13.7%, impacted by higher power & fuel (+13.1%), freight cost (+19.1% due to rise in diesel prices) and other expenses (+15.1%). Lower other income (down 68.5% YoY on the back of absence of dividend income from its subsidiary ACC) and a sharp rise in the effective tax rate (+1001bps to 28.9%) impacted the PAT, which de-grew 34.4% YoY to Rs 178.6cr. Other key highlights: i) ACL is looking to set up a 3.1 MTPA (9,500 TPD) clinkerisation plant at Marwar Mundwa in Rajasthan. An initial investment of Rs.1,391cr towards the first phase of 1.7 MTPA (5000 TPD) capacity has been approved and is expected to commission in H2CY20. This would increase the total installed capacity to 31.4 MTPA, thus resulting in improved volume growth visibility over long term; ii) Focus would remain on steadily increasing sale of premium products going forward. Outlook & Valuation Led by anticipated revival in demand (especially in rth & West) and company s efforts towards brand building & distribution expansion, ACL s standalone net revenue, EBITDA and PAT are estimated to grow by 10%, 8.9% & 8.8% CAGR respectively over CY17-19E. Volume offtake is likely to remain healthy. Further, increasing sale of fast growing premium products would result in better realizations going forward. Moreover, the commencement of new clinkerisation facility in Rajasthan (from H2CY20) would wane out the ongoing concerns over capacity constraints and provide volume growth visibility over long term. While rising power & fuel prices and increasing freight cost will continue to put pressure on the margins in the near term, we expect the same to be offset by cost efficiency measures going ahead. We estimate a meaningful margin improvement in CY19E. Leverage free balance sheet, healthy cash flows and healthy dividend pay-outs should provide valuation comfort. Based on poor performance on the profit front, we have downgraded our EBITDA and PAT estimates by 5-11% for CY18 & CY19. We maintain Buy on the stock with revised target price of Rs 247. Financial Summary standalone Particulars, Rs cr CY16 CY17 CY18E CY19E Net Revenue 9, , , ,612.8 EBITDA 1, , , ,295.5 EBITDAM (%) APAT , , ,469.3 APATM (%) EPS (Rs) ROE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) October 29, 2018
2 P&L Account - standalone Particulars (cr) Q3CY18 Q3CY17 Y-o-Y % Q2CY18 Q-o-Q % Net Revenue 2, , , Raw Material Consumed Stock Adjustment (78.4) Purchase of Finished Goods Total Material Cost Gross Profit 2, , , Employee Expenses Other Expenses 1, , , EBITDA EBITDAM (%) bps bps Depreciation EBIT Other Income Interest PBT Tax Tax Rate (% on PBT) ,001bps bps PAT PATM (%) bps bps EPS
3 P&L Account - standalone Net Revenue 9, , , ,612.8 Growth (%) (2.8) Material Expenses Employee Expenses Other Operating Expenses 6, , , ,665.0 EBITDA 1, , , ,295.5 EBITDAM (%) EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation EBIT , , ,702.8 Other Income Interest PBT 1, , , ,012.7 Tax PAT , , ,469.3 PAT Growth (%) (0.6) 18.3 EPS EPS Growth (%) (9.8) 34.0 (0.6) 18.3 Balance sheet - standalone SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital Reserves 18, , , ,321.7 Total Shareholders Funds 19, , , ,718.8 Total Debt Net Deferred Taxes Long Term Provisions & Oth TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 19, , , ,252.2 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 5, , , ,170.9 CWIP Investments 11, , , ,844.7 LT Loans & Advances and Oth- 1, , , ,400.2 Total n-current Assets 19, , , ,315.8 Inventories , , ,252.6 Trade Receivables Cash & Equivalents 2, , , ,350.3 ST Loans & Advances and Oth Total Current Assets 4, , , ,766.2 Trade Payables , , ,140.3 Other Current Liabilities & 2, , , ,689.5 Total Current Liabilities 3, , , ,829.8 Net current Assets , , ,936.4 TOTAL APPLICATION OF 19, , , ,252.2
4 Cash Flow statement - standalone Reported PBT 1, , , ,012.7 n-operating & EO items Interest Expenses Depreciation Working Capital Change Tax Paid OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 1, , , ,038.0 Capex 5,553.5 (428.2) (502.1) (600.0) Free Cash Flow 7, , , ,438.0 Investments (9,618.6) n-operating income Others (32.5) 89.0 (118.6) (135.3) INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (3,725.8) (62.1) (368.1) (449.4) Debt Issuance / (Repaid) (7.0) 8.4 (1.2) (1.1) Interest Expenses (74.2) (107.2) (85.9) (81.6) FCFE 7, , , ,355.2 Dividend (667.2) (857.8) (953.1) (1,012.7) Others (64.8) (41.0) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (726.4) (997.5) (1,030.0) (1,082.6) EO items NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (2,817.2) Closing Cash 2, , , ,350.3 Key Financial ratios - standalone PROFITABILITY (%) GPM EBITDAM APATM RoE RoCE EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) Fixed Asset Turnover (x) Cash Conversion Cycle (days) Debt/Equity (x) Interest Coverage (x) PER SHARE DATA EPS CEPS BV Dividend VALUATION P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield (%)
5 Before you use this research report, please ensure to go through the disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 and Research Disclaimer at the following link : Specific analyst(s) specific disclosure(s) inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 is/are as under: Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest, compensation Research Analyst (RA) [Please note that only in case of multiple RAs, if in the event answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) below, are given separately] S.. Statement Answer Tick appropriate I/we or any of my/our relative has any financial interest in the subject company? [If answer is yes, nature of Interest is given below this table] I/we or any of my/our relatives, have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance? Yes I / we or any of my/our relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance? I/we have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have received any compensation for products or services other than brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report? I/we have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company? I/we have been engaged in market making activity for the subject company? Nature of Interest ( if answer to F (a) above is Yes : Name(s) with Signature(s) of RA(s). [Please note that only in case of multiple RAs and if the answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) above, are given below] Copyright in this document vests exclusively with RBL. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without prior written permission from RBL. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. Research Disclaimer:
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RAMCO S HOLD Target Price: Rs 503 Deleveraging story playing out Ramco Cements total debt reduced by a massive Rs 5 bn to Rs 22 bn in FY16. The company generated total EBITDA of Rs 11.5 bn in FY16 and
More informationCrisil. Institutional Equities. 3QCY17 Result Update ACCUMULATE. Weak SME Rating Revenues & Currency Movement Play Spoilsport
3QCY17 Result Update Institutional Equities Crisil 18 October 2017 Reuters: CRSL.BO; Bloomberg: CRISIL IN Weak SME Rating Revenues & Currency Movement Play Spoilsport Crisil s 3QCY17 performance was below
More informationMahindra & Mahindra Ltd.
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 3QFY2019 Result Update Automobile February 15, 2019 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. Performance Update Y/E March (` cr)
More informationAmbuja Cement Ltd. Tough two quarters ahead. Source: Company, India Infoline Research,*Standalone
Change in Estimates Rating Target Ambuja Cement Ltd Tough two quarters ahead Accumulate Sector: Cement Sector View: Neutral Analyst: Hemant Nahata research@indiainfoline.com Stock Data Sensex: 23,759 52
More informationBUY. NTPC Ltd Power RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 GEOJIT RESEARCH Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH NTPC Ltd Power BSE CODE: 532555 NSE CODE: NTPC Bloomberg
More informationNear-term pressure, but long-term outlook positive
INDUSTRY IT CMP (as on 2 Nov 2015) Rs 1,812 Target Price Rs 2,050 Nifty 8,051 Sensex 26,559 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg ECLX IN No. of Shares (mn) 30 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 55/843 6m avg traded value (Rs mn)
More informationNestle India. Institutional Equities. 1QCY18 Result Update. Resurgence Continues BUY. Sector: FMCG CMP: Rs8,981 Target Price: Rs10,700 Upside: 19%
1QCY18 Result Update Institutional Equities Nestle India 11 May 218 Reuters: NEST.BO; Bloomberg: NEST IN Resurgence Continues Nestle India (NEST) reported strong overall performance during 1QCY18 driven
More informationICICI BANK Ltd. BUY CMP (Rs.) 334 Target (Rs.) 382 Potential Upside 15% Tide set to turn favourably... For private circulation only
Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Volume No.. III Issue No. 160. ICICI BANK Ltd. Feb. 08, 2018 BSE Code: 532174 NSE Code: ICICIBANK Reuters Code:
More informationHealty cigarette-driven growth
INDUSTRY FMCG CMP (as on 27 Jul 2017) Rs 289 Target Price Rs 353 Nifty 10,021 Sensex 32,383 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg ITC IN No. of Shares (mn) 12,161 12,162 MCap (Rs bn)/(us$ mn) 3,509/54,743 6m avg traded
More informationJamna Auto Industries
2QFY19 Result Update Institutional Equities Jamna Auto Industries Reuters: JMNA.NS; Bloomberg: JMNA IN Performance Below Expectations; Retain Buy Due To Strong Outlook Jamna Auto s 2QFY19 earnings were
More informationPower Mech Projects. Institutional Equities. 2QFY18 Result Update BUY. Strong Business Scalability Likely; Retain Buy
2QFY18 Result Update Power Mech Projects 23 November 217 Reuters: POMP.BO; Bloomberg: POWM IN Strong Business Scalability Likely; Retain Buy Power Mech Projects (PMPL) posted 2QFY18 consolidated revenues
More informationAsian Granito BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `270 Target Price `351. Outlook and valuation. 3QFY2017 Result Update Ceramics
3QFY2017 Result Update Ceramics January 25, 2017 Asian Granito Performance Highlights Quarterly Data (` cr) 3QFY17 3QFY16 % yoy 2QFY17 % qoq Revenue 247 236 4.3 265 (7.1) EBITDA 34 27 25.3 31 7.2 Margin
More informationEmkay. Demand environment remain weak. Century Plyboards. Result highlights. Slowdown in plywood segment impacted revenue growth
Century Plyboards India Equity Research Others January 29, 2016 Result Update Emkay Your success is our success Demand environment remain weak CMP Rs150 Target Price Rs166 ( ) Rating Upside ACCUMULATE
More informationCMP* (Rs) 1,458 Upside/ (Downside) (%) 10 Bloomberg Ticker. ABB IN Market Cap. (Rs bn) 309 Free Float (%) 25 Shares O/S (mn) 212
2QCY17 Result Update July 20, 2017 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 309 Free Float (%) 25 Shares O/S (mn) 212 Well-placed in Power T&D Hi-tech Space; Order Book Remains Robust India s revenue rose by 6.0% YoY to Rs23.3bn
More informationNestle India Ltd. RESULT UPDATE
RESULT UPDATE 15th May 2017 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 India Equity Institutional Research II Result Update Q1CY17 II 15th May, 2017 CMP INR 6819 Target INR 7075 Potential Upside
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1QCY212 Result Update Construction May 14, 212 ITD Cementation India Performance highlights Y/E December 1QCY12 4QCY11 % chg (qoq) 1QCY11 % chg (yoy) Total operating income 384 327 17.6 344 11.5 Operating
More informationHDFC Bank. BUY CMP (Rs.) 1,807 Target (Rs.) 2,000 Potential Upside 11%
Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17. Volume No.. I Issue No. 147 HDFC Bank Oct. 31, 2017 BSE Code: 500180 NSE Code: HDFCBANK Reuters Code: HDBK.NS
More informationGraphite India BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `88 `109. 1QFY2012 Result Update Capital Goods
1QFY2012 Result Update Capital Goods July 25, 2011 Graphite India Performance Highlights Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY2012 4QFY2011 % chg (qoq) 1QFY2011 % chg (yoy) Net sales 319 303 5.1 258 23.3 EBITDA 61 59
More informationAmbuja Cement. Realisations-driven beat SELL RESULTS REVIEW 2QCY17 25 JUL Highlights of the quarter
INDUSTRY CEMENT CMP (as on 24 July 2017) Rs 268 Target Price Rs 220 Nifty 9,966 Sensex 32,246 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg/Reuters ACEM IN No. of Shares (mn) 1,986 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 531/8,273 6m avg traded
More informationKEI Industries BUY. Performance Update. CMP Target Price `433 `508. 4QFY2018 Result Update Cable. Historical share price chart.
May- Aug- Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 4QFY2018 Result Update Cable May 21, 2018 KEI Industries Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY18 4QFY17 % yoy 3QFY18
More informationCrompton Greaves Consumer Electricals
INDUSTRY APPLIANCES CMP (as on 27 Oct 2017) Rs 219 Target Price Rs 268 Nifty 10,323 Sensex 33,157 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg CROMPTON IN No. of Shares (mn) 627 MCap (Rs bn)/(us$ mn) 137/2,106 6m avg traded
More informationStrong volumes, offset by costs
RESULTS REVIEW 3QCY17 25 OCT 2017 Ambuja Cement SELL INDUSTRY CEMENT CMP (as on 24 Oct 2017) Rs 282 Target Price Rs 220 Nifty 10,208 Sensex 32,607 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg/Reuters ACEM IN No. of Shares
More informationKey estimate revision. Year CY14 87,383 11,148 6, CY15E 1,20,126 17,838 9,
: price: EPS: How does our one year outlook change? We retain our positive view on EIM on the back of expected improvement in volume and margin at Royal Enfield (RE) and expected revival in VECV on the
More informationHOLD. Nestle. Good Performance Irrespective of GST Pangs. Target Price: Rs6,624. Institutional Equity Research. 2QCY17 Result Update July 27,2017
2QCY17 Result Update July 27,2017 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 657 Free Float (%) 37.3 Shares O/S (mn) 96 Good Performance Irrespective of GST Pangs Nestlé India has reported a good set of numbers for 2QCY17 in
More informationCompany Overview. Financial Performance
Apr/15 May/15 Jun/15 Jul/15 Aug/15 Sep/15 Oct/15 Nov/15 Dec/15 Jan/16 Feb/16 Mar/16 Monarch Networth Capital Limited CMP: 26.00 March 23, 2016 Stock Details BSE code 511551 BSE ID MONARCH Face value (
More informationNTPC Ltd. Results in line with estimates, BUY for attractive valuations. Power. EBITDA margins up at 26% (+700bps QoQ): EBITDA margins
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 NTPC Ltd 11 May 2012 105 Power Result Review Rating: BUY Current Price: Rs 148 Target Price: Rs 189 Upside:
More informationCummins India Ltd Bloomberg Code: KKC IN
Company Update Margins Under Pressure; Domestic Recovery Underway Half-yearly revenue was flat; margins were under pressure: Cummins India revenue, EBITDA and PAT for H1FY17 reached to Rs.24,784mn, Rs.4,649mn
More informationFY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
13-Aug-15 09-Aug-16 06-Aug-17 03-Aug-18 Result Update STRONG BUY * August 13, 2018 Dalmia Bharat Result Update Top-line growth led by improved realization & volume growth The company posted a revenue of
More informationMaruti Suzuki India BUY. Performance Update. CMP `6,705 Target Price `8,552. 2QFY2019 Result Update Automobile. Historical share price chart
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 2QFY2019 Result Update Automobile November 3, 2018 Maruti Suzuki India Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY19
More informationNTPC Ltd. BUY CMP (Rs.) 163 Target (Rs.) 188 Potential Upside 15% For private circulation only. Volume No.. II Issue No. 164.
Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18. Volume No.. II Issue No. 164 NTPC Ltd. March 7, 2018 BSE Code: 532555 NSE Code: NTPC Reuters Code: NTPC.NS Bloomberg
More informationTV Today Network BUY. Performance Update CMP. `323 Target Price `498. 3QFY2019 Result Update Media. Investment Period 12 Months
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 3QFY2019 Result Update Media February 14, 2019 TV Today Network Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY19 3QFY18
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RESULTS REVIEW Share Data Market Cap Rs. 168.6 bn Price Rs. 795.80 BSE Sensex 16,741.30 Reuters Bloomberg Avg. Volume (52 Week) ABB.BO ABB IN 0.11 mn 52-Week High/Low Rs. 856.95 / 344 Shares Outstanding
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May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 4QFY2018 Result Update Automobile May 30, 2018 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. Performance Update Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY18 4QFY17
More informationAmara Raja Batteries BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP `1,010 Target Price `1,167. 2QFY2017 Result Update Auto Ancillary. 3-year price chart
2QFY217 Result Update Auto Ancillary November 8, 216 Amara Raja Batteries Performance Highlights BUY CMP `1,1 Target Price `1,167 Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY16 3QFY15 % chg (yoy) 2QFY16 % chg (qoq) Net Sales
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2QFY18 Result Update Institutional Equities KCP 5 December 2017 Reuters: KCP.BO; Bloomberg: KCPL IN Other Income Drives PAT; High International Coal Price Is Cause For Concern KCP reported a weak set of
More informationBUY. Efforts on cost cutting paying off RAMCO CEMENTS. Target Price: Rs 435. Key highlights. Key drivers FY15 FY16E FY17E
RAMCO S BUY Target Price: Rs 435 Efforts on cost cutting paying off Q2 EBITDA at Rs 2.8 bn (up 30% YoY) was ahead of our estimates due to lower-than-expected costs. Average costs (excluding freight) declined
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INDUSTRY IT Processing CMP (as on 23 May 218) Rs 17 TP Rs 23 Nifty 1,43 Sensex 34,345 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg BLSIN IN No. of Shares (mn) 12 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 18/255 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 89
More informationColgate-Palmolive. Q2FY18 Result Update Volume pressure continues; Soft A&P aids Margin. Sector: FMCG CMP: ` 1,063. Recommendation: HOLD
Colgate-Palmolive Q2FY18 Result Update Volume pressure continues; Soft A&P aids Margin Sector: FMCG CMP: ` 1,063 Recommendation: HOLD Market Statistics Current stock price (`) 1,063 Shares O/S (cr.) 27.2
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Auto OEM: 3-Wheelers Atul Feb Auto 03, 2015 Ltd India Research Stock Broking Bloomberg Code: ATA IN Stable quarter led by surge in exports volumes (TP revised ) : Operating revenue, EBITDA and PAT grew
More informationJK Lakshmi Cement BUY. Performance Highlights CMP. `63 Target Price `79. 4QFY2012 Result Update Cement. Investment Period 12 Months
4QFY2012 Result Update Cement May 22, 2012 JK Lakshmi Cement Performance Highlights Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY2012 3QFY2012 % chg qoq 4QFY2011 % chg yoy Net revenue 527 440 19.7 417 26.3 Operating profit 113
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