Gold: Explorer BUREY GOLD LIMITED (BYR) BYR.asx Speculative Buy. Is it a Doozy or is it a Match?
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- Ralph Marshall
- 5 years ago
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1 Gold: Explorer Burey Gold Limited BUREY GOLD LIMITED (BYR) Is it a Doozy or is it a Match? Burey Gold Limited has commenced a maiden RC drilling program at the Douze Match anomaly in the northern zone of the Giro project, northeast DRC. A doozy is something outstanding or unique of its kind and the Douze Match anomaly looks to be the largest soil anomaly on the project. The anomaly extends over 4km x 2.5km which is (~2-3x) larger than the anomaly at the Kebigada shear zone. Drilling of the Douze Match prospect has potential to discover similar mineralisation to what has already been discovered at the Kebigada shear zone in the southern part of the project. Our initial estimates suggest the Kebigada shear zone prospect has potential to define a multi-million ounce deposit at mineable grades and a low strip ratio. We expect further mineralisation to be discovered throughout the Giro project where soil anomalies have previously had a strong correlation with underlying primary mineralisation. Randgold continues to consolidate a world class goldfield Randgold Resources (RRS.lse) recently entered into a joint venture with Moku Goldmines AG, a company controlled by Israeli billioire Dan Gertler and the state gold miner, Sokimo. Rangold acquired (51%) of the tenement which lies directly between Giro and Kibali for an undisclosed amount. Randgold now holds a large footprint in the northeastern DRC and is likely to continue consolidating the field. The Giro project remains one of the last tenements Randgold will be looking to do a deal on. Earlier this year, Randgold signed other joint ventures in the northeastern DRC with the TSX-listed Kilo Goldmines (KGL.tsx-v), Deveron Resources (DVR.tsx-v) and Loncor Resources (LN.tsx). Randgold has a clear strategy to discover world-class gold deposits with potential to deliver 3Moz with a 20% IRR at US$1,000/oz gold price. Randgold is of the view that the northeastern DRC is one of the few areas in Africa where this potential remains unexplored. Mangote and Douze Match RC drilling commences The Mangote and Douze Match group of anomalies has a number of artisal and historic workings where mining has focussed on sheared and quartz veined BIFs adjacent to granites. Burey has commenced an RC drilling program which will test for shallow oxide mineralisation and identify the underlying mineralised structures which sourced the gold in soil anomalies at the Mangote and Douze Match prospects. Large orebody at Kebigada with more ounces to be found We believe the Kebigada shear zone has already shown potential to host a multi-million ounce deposit and we like the opportunity to discover further large deposits along the ~30km corridor. We look forward to strong newsflow from the maiden RC drilling program at Douze Match and the potential to delineate further multi-million ounce deposits. Assuming further exploration success a maiden resource for Giro could potentially be released in CY16 and first production from Giro as a stand-alone project would be at least 3-4 years away although sooner if Giro was to be treated at the nearby (~30km) Kibali processing plant. We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation and price target of 5.3cps. Share Price (last): BYR.asx Speculative Buy Price Target - 12 months $0.053 Brief Business Description: African focussed explorer Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion New gold discovery on the Kilo-Moto gold belt in northeast DRC. Similar host rocks to the nearby 17Moz Kibali project Chairman & MD Klaus Eckhof (Executive Chairman) Mark Calderwood (Non-Exec Director) Top Shareholders Cong Mao Huai 16.9% Naboo Consulting Group 15.0% Perseus Mining Limited 8.5% Company Address L1, Suite 5, 55 Salvado Road Subiaco WA 6901 Issued Capital 962.2m - diluted ITM 962.2m - diluted fully m Market Cap - diluted ITM - diluted fully Cash - est Debt EV EV/Resource Oz (Au) Resource (Moz Au) Scott Williamson Resources Alyst Ph: E: scott_williamson@hartleys.com.au 20 May 2016 Hartleys Limited ABN (AFSL ) 141 Page St Georges 1 of 5 Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Further information concerning Hartleys regulatory disclosures can be found on Hartleys website $0.024 $23.1m $23.1m $37.5m $2.5m $0.4m $21.0m 0.02 A$ 50. M Jun-15 Burey Gold Limited Sep-15 Jan-16. May-16 Hartleys has assisted in the completion of part of capital raisings in the past 12 months for BYR, for which it has earned fees. Hartleys has also provided corporate advice within the past 12 months and continues to provide corporate advice to BYR, for which it has earned fees and continues to earn fees. Hartleys has a beneficial interest in 32.5m options in BYR. The alyst has a beneficial interest in BYR Volume - RHS Source: IRESS BYR Shareprice - LHS Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS
2 SUMMARY MODEL Burey Gold Limited Share Price May-16 BYR $0.024 Speculative Buy Key Market Information Directors Company Details Share Price $0.024 Klaus Eckhof (Executive Chairman) L1, Suite 5, 55 Salvado Road Market Capitalisation $23.1m Mark Calderwood (Non-Exec Director) Subiaco WA 6901 Net Cash (debt) $2.1m Susmit Shah (Non-Exec Director/Co-Sec) Issued Capital 962.2m Kevin Thomson (Non-Exec Director) Issued Capital (fully diluted ITM options) 962.2m Mark Gasson (Exploration Mager) Options 601.8m Issued Capital (fully diluted all options) m EV $21.0m Top Shareholders m shs % Cong Mao Huai % 12Mth Price Target $0.053 Naboo Consulting Group % Perseus Mining Limited % Projects Interest Location Commodity Giro 55% DRC Gold (Au) Balatindi 75% Guinea Cu, Au, U Resources Mt Grade Metal Interest Investment Summary New gold discovery in northeast DRC. Host rocks similar to the nearby 17Moz Kibali project currently operated by Randgold and Anglogold Ashanti. Giro is a large, lower grade mineralised system with associated high grades along the Kebigada shear zone. The Giro prospect remains open at depth and along strike, with a number of further targets to be tested along the ~30km structural corridor over the coming months. Newsflow Project Q2 CY16 RC drilling at Douze Match Giro Q3 CY16 Drill results, interpretation, follow-up drilling Giro Q4 CY16 Maiden resource estimate Giro P&L FY2014F FY2015F FY2016F Unpaid Capital No (m) $ (m) Ave Pr % Ord Options Net Revenue 31-Dec % Total Costs 31-Jul % EBITDA 31-Dec % Deprec/Amort 31-Dec % EBIT 31-Dec % Net Interest % Pre-Tax Profit Tax Expense NPAT loss loss loss Abnormal Items Reported Profit loss loss loss Comments African focussed explorer, with a new gold discovery on the Kilo-Moto belt in northeastern DRC. High quality board and magement team with a proven track record of first-class discoveries, project developments, gold production and deals with majors. Alyst: Scott Williamson Phone: Last Updated: 20/05/2016 Sources: IRESS, Company Information, Hartleys Research Page 2 of 5
3 PRELIMINARY PRICE TARGET METHODOLOGY A maiden resource for the Giro prospect could potentially be released in 2016 Prelimiry price target of 5.3cps We consider the Giro project to be in the mid-stages of exploration with a significant gold discovery at the Giro prospect. The Company is now embarking on further drilling of prospects along the ~30km trend to discover further gold mineralisation. As yet no JORC-compliant resources have been delineated and the Company is likely to continue exploration before embarking on resource infill drilling. We have modelled (simulation only) a potential +1Moz open pit operation, using estimated opex and capex based on a ~200Kozpa operation over an 8 year mine life. Our initial simulation model is highly speculative and assumes a sizeable resource (at good open pit grades) can be defined and converted to a mining inventory, and the project can be successfully funded into production. Assuming more drill success, mineralised continuity and favourable metallurgy a maiden resource for Giro could potentially be released in CY16. First production from Giro as a stand-alone project would be at least 3-4 years away although sooner if Giro was to be treated at the nearby Kibali processing plant. Burey is primarily an explorer with a gold discovery which may be commercially viable as a stand-alone project or as an addition to the nearby 17Moz Kibali project. Our prelimiry price target is derived from both a discounted cashflow alysis of a potential gold operation at Giro, cash and our perception of exploration value of the current mineralisation in combition with the potential to discover other gold deposits within the project area. Our BYR valuation and price target is considered highly speculative and will be updated as resources are defined and development studies progress. Fig. 1: Hartleys BYR Price Target Price Target Methodology Weighting Spot 12 Month Giro project (NPV@14) - risked 2g/t Au OP - simulation 20% $0.09 $0.11 Exploration value - no development 60% $0.05 $0.05 Current Cash Backing 20% $0.00 $0.00 Risk weighted composite $ Months Price Target $0.053 Shareprice - Last $ mth total return (% to 12mth target + dividend) 122% Source: Hartleys Estimates Page 3 of 5
4 RISKS Fig. 2: Key assumptions and risks for valuation Assumption Risk of not realising assumption Downside risk to share price if assumption is incorrect Comment Project ownership can be maintained Low Meaningful We assume BYR project tenure agreements are enforceable and the Company will retain mineral ownership and exploitation rights. Medium sovereign risk Medium Meaningful We assume the DRC remains a stable country with favourable laws for foreign investment and the repatriation of potential future earnings. Model parameters for our prelimiry BYR valuation and price target Favourable commodity prices Medium Meaningful We have made a number of large assumptions in our BYR prelimiry valuation, based on incomplete information (ie no resources, reserves, or development studies). BYR has no production history. Any changes to our assumptions have both upside and downside risks. Low Meaningful BYR remains sensitive to changes in commodity prices (particularly gold), exchange rates and market sentiment. Though with no current operations, direct impact from commodity prices is limited. Upside from exploration Medium Moderate BYR is currently well funded for planned exploration activities (~A$2.0m in estimated cash). The Company also has options which could provide additiol future funding. We consider the Company s ground to be highly prospective and under-explored, and a potentially significant gold discovery has already been made at Giro. However lack of further exploration success would have a negative impact on the Company. Conclusion At this stage we consider the assumptions have a low to medium risk of not being achieved. Source: Hartleys Research Page 4 of 5
5 HARTLEYS CORPORATE DIRECTORY Research Trent Barnett Head of Research Mike Millikan Resources Alyst Scott Williamson Resources Alyst Simon Andrew Energy Alyst Janine Bell Research Assistant Corporate Fince Dale Bryan Director & Head of Corp Fin. Richard Simpson Director Paul Fryer Director Ben Wale Associate Director Ben Crossing Associate Director Stephen Kite Associate Director Scott Weir Associate Director Rhys Simpson Mager Registered Office Level 6, 141 St Georges TcePostal Address: PerthWA 6000 GPO Box 2777 Australia Perth WA 6001 PH: FX: info@hartleys.com.au Note: persol addresses of company employees are structured in the following manner:firstme_lastme@hartleys.com.au Hartleys Recommendation Categories Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce / Take profits Sell No Rating Speculative Buy Share price appreciation anticipated. Share price appreciation anticipated but the risk/reward is not as attractive as a Buy. Altertively, for the share price to rise it may be contingent on the outcome of an uncertain or distant event. Alyst will often indicate a price level at which it may become a Buy. Take no action. Upside & downside risk/reward is evenly balanced. It is anticipated to be unlikely that there will be gains over the investment time horizon but there is a possibility of some price weakness over that period. Significant price depreciation anticipated. No recommendation. Share price could be volatile. While it is anticipated that, on a risk/reward basis, an investment is attractive, there is at least one identifiable risk that has a meaningful possibility of occurring, which, if it did occur, could lead to significant share price reduction. Consequently, the investment is considered high risk. Institutiol Sales Carrick Ryan Justin Stewart Simon van den Berg Chris Chong Digby Gilmour Veronika Tkacova Wealth Magement Nicola Bond Bradley Booth Adrian Brant Nathan Bray Sven Burrell Simon Casey Tony Chien Tim Cottee David Cross Nicholas Draper John Featherby Ben Fleay James Gatti John Goodlad Andrew Gribble David Hainsworth Neil Inglis Murray Jacob Gavin Lehmann Shane Lehmann Steven Loxley Andrew Macughtan Scott Metcalf David Michael Jamie Moullin Chris Munro Michael Munro Ian Parker Charlie Ransom (CEO) Conlie Salvemini Mark Sandford David Smyth Greg Soudure Sonya Soudure Dirk Vanderstruyf Samuel Williams Jayme Walsh Disclaimer/Disclosure The author of this publication, Hartleys Limited ABN ( Hartleys ), its Directors and their Associates from time to time may hold shares in the security/securities mentioned in this Research document and therefore may benefit from any increase in the price of those securities. Hartleys and its Advisers may earn brokerage, fees, commissions, other benefits or advantages as a result of a transaction arising from any advice mentioned in publications to clients. Hartleys has assisted in the completion of part of capital raisings in the past 12 months for Burey Gold Limited ("Burey"), for which it has earned fees. Hartleys has also provided corporate advice within the past 12 months and continues to provide corporate advice to Burey, for which it has earned fees and continues to earn fees. Hartleys has a beneficial interest in 32,500,000 options in Burey Gold Limited Any fincial product advice contained in this document is unsolicited general information only. Do not act on this advice without first consulting your investment adviser to determine whether the advice is appropriate for your investment objectives, fincial situation and particular needs. Hartleys believes that any information or advice (including any fincial product advice) contained in this document is accurate when issued. Hartleys however, does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Hartleys, its officers, agents and employees exclude all liability whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted by law. Page 5 of 5
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