Brigade Enterprises. Stable performance BUY RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY19 14 NOV 2018

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1 INDUSTRY REAL ESTATE CMP (as on 13 Nov 2018) Rs 177 Target Price Rs 306 Nifty 10,583 Sensex 35,144 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg BRGD IN No. of Shares (mn) 136 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 24/333 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 17 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 325/157 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (6.5) (32.8) (37.4) Relative (%) 0.1 (31.7) (43.8) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Promoters FIs & Local MFs FPIs Public & Others Source : BSE Parikshit D Kandpal, CFA parikshitd.kandpal@hdfcsec.com Kunal Bhandari kunal.bhandari@hdfcsec.com Stable performance 2QFY19 revenue came in at Rs 8.3bn (+70%YoY, +18% QoQ, 30% beat) and was higher by Rs 3.1bn on account of IND AS 115. EBIDTA margins decreased 119bps YoY to 26.5%. APAT was Rs 683mn (+67% YoY, +8% QoQ, 20% beat) and is higher by Rs 255mn on account of IND AS 115 accounting treatment. BEL launched 0.5/0.4mn sqft in Resi/ Commercial in addition to 0.7mn sqft already launched in 1QFY19. The annual showcase held in Jul-18 has driven the uptick in sales of ~0.8mn sqft in 2QFY19. Realization was muted at Rs 5,719/sqft (-3% YoY, +12% QoQ). Gross leasing stood at 0.5mn sqft in 2QFY19 (~Rs 0.3bn of annual potential) even as momentum in GIFT city is tepid (could take >12 months to reach a reasonable occupancy). BEL s share in upcoming launches is 8.84mn sqft (Resi/ Commercial 6.4/2.3mn sqft) in addition to 2 hotels (~300 keys), with construction work already started in the Mysore hotel (154 keys). With a ramp up in the annuity portfolio we expect leasing to contribute Rs 3.7bn in FY20E. We maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP of Rs 306/sh. RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY19 14 NOV 2018 Brigade Enterprises BUY Highlights of the quarter Hospitality segment improving trend: While ARRs are holding well across stabilized hotels, there is some pressure on occupancy due to increased competitive supply and demand shift to other micro markets. Despite this BEL is taking measures to maintain profitability with focus on F&B etc. The 3 new hotels have also shown improvement. BEL continues to eye a minority stake sale to PE funds. Launches to drive pre sales: Brigade is targeting ~10mn sqft (gross) of launches in YTDFY19E (~8mn sqft in Resi) out of this ~80% has better visibility with projects like Brigade Utopia (~3mn sqft of integrated mixed use), 3 senior living residences in Bangalore, ~1mn sqft commercial in Bangalore, Next phase of Xanadu, Chennai etc. Near Term outlook: ~40% of future launches would cater to affordable housing. There could be a splurge in this category by competitors in the Bengaluru market. Despite overall sentiment improving, realizations could be under pressure in the near future with substantial inventory in the market and a lot of new launches in affordable segment/ outskirts. Financial Summary (Consolidated) Year Ending March (Rs mn) 2QFY19 2QFY18 YoY (%) 1QFY19 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Sales 8,259 4, , ,241 18,972 32,309 32,923 EBITDA 2,188 1, , ,744 5,545 8,640 8,819 APAT ,531 1,507 3,304 2,947 Diluted EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV / EBITDA (x) RoE (%) HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

2 Revenue: Rs 8.3bn (+70%YoY, +18% QoQ, 30% beat) and was higher by Rs 3.1bn on account of IND AS 115 EBIDTA margins: 26.5% (- 119bps YoY, +81bps QoQ). EBIDTA: Rs 2.2bn (+63% YoY, +22%QoQ, 24% beat) APAT: Rs 683mn (+67% YoY, +8% QoQ, 20% beat) and is higher by Rs 255mn on account of IND AS 115 Launches: 2QFY19 Resi 0.5mn sqft, commercial: 0.4mn sqft (in addition to 1QFY19 when 2 real estate projects of 0.7mnsqft (BEL 0.6mn sqft share) were launched) Additionally 154keys hotel at Mysore commenced construction (9th hotel) Quarterly Financial Snapshot (Consolidated) Particulars (Rs mn) 2QFY19 2QFY18 YoY (%) 1QFY19 QoQ (%) 1HFY19 1HFY18 YoY (%) Net Sales 8,259 4, , ,250 10, Construction Expenses (4,624) (2,474) 86.9 (3,817) 21.1 (8,440) (5,417) 55.8 Employee Expenses (501) (413) 21.3 (463) 8.2 (964) (798) 20.8 Other Operating Expenses (946) (618) 53.1 (916) 3.3 (1,862) (1,579) 17.9 EBITDA 2,188 1, , ,984 2, Interest Cost (697) (605) 15.2 (628) 11.0 (1,325) (1,212) 9.3 Depreciation (339) (321) 5.6 (317) 6.9 (655) (638) 2.7 Other Income + Exceptional PBT 1, , Minority Interest , (5) - Share of associates/ci 4 5 (20.0) 6 (34.4) Tax (464) (148) (313) 48.2 (777) (289) Exceptional items APAT , Margin Analysis (Consolidated) 2QFY19 2QFY18 YoY (bps) 1QFY19 QoQ (bps) 1HFY19 1HFY18 YoY (bps) Material Expenses % Net Sales Employee Expenses % Net Sales (245) 6.6 (56) (135) Other Operating Expenses % Net Sales (130) 13.1 (165) (298) EBITDA Margin (%) (119) Tax Rate (%) APAT Margin (%) (17) 9.0 (76) Pre-sales Trend 2QFY19 2QFY18 YoY (%) 1QFY19 QoQ (%) 1HFY19 1HFY18 YoY (%) Sales Volume (mn sqft) Sales Value (Rs mn) 4,597 2, , ,782 3, Average Realization (Rs/sqft) 5,719 5,915 (3.3) 5, ,510 5,892 (6.5) Page 2

3 Gross debt increased to Rs 31.3 bn; net D/E increased QoQ from 0.83x to 0.89x (old AS) BEL has to incur Rs 16bn in asset capex and Rs 2.3bn in land over the next three years With Rs 25.1bn expected pretax cash flows from real estate projects; BEL is placed well to meet the capex requirement We expect BEL s ongoing projects to generate pre-tax surplus of Rs 25.1bn. Timing shall be crucial to meet the heavy Rs 7-8bn of annual capex over FY19-20E Consolidated gross debt increased to Rs 31.3 bn; net D/E increased from 0.83x to 0.89x (old AS) BEL s consolidated 2QFY19 net D/E increased to 0.89x vs 0.83x QoQ (Consolidated net debt increased to Rs 27.0bn). This was primarily on account of an increase of Rs 1.2 bn in lease rental debt to Rs 19.6 bn. Real Estate debt increased marginally by Rs 1.1bn. Cost of debt has increased to 9.33%, as compared to 9.18% in 1QFY19 but reduced significantly vs 10.6% in 2QFY18. We expect consolidated gross debt to increase to Rs 39.9bn by FY20E as BEL will incur heavy capex (Rs 7-8bn annually) over FY19-20E. Net D/E will peak at 1.4x in a worst-case scenario. Debt/Equity Ratio Trend (X) (Consolidated) (Rs mn) 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 Net debt 12,856 17,902 18,546 19,256 19,026 19,533 18,481 20,115 23,120 25,772 25,650 27,008 Net worth - Old AS 14,579 18,003 18,873 20,834 21,201 23,091 27,807 28,194 28,543 28,890 30,903 30,346 Net worth - IND AS ,443 27,008 Net D/E (x) - Old AS Net D/E (x) - IND AS Details Of Ongoing Projects Ongoing BEL projects Ongoing SPV projects Stock sales Total Area (mn sqft) Total Launched Saleable Area Less: LO Share Co Share Of Saleable Area Sold Till Date To Be Sold Estimated Sale value (Rs mn) Value Of Sold Units 17,547 7,787-22,334 Value Of Unsold Units 20,119 6,636 4,258 31,013 Total Sale Value - a 37,666 11,423 4,258 53,347 Collection Till Date On Sold Units - b 10,692 3,657-14,349 Balance Collection (Including Sold Units) - c = a-b 26,974 7,766 4,258 38,998 Estimated Cost For Projects (Incl Land/NRD) - d 25,549 6,582 3,145 35,276 Cost Incurred Till Date - e 13,970 4,286 3,145 21,401 Balance Cost To Be Incurred f = d-e 11,579 2,296-13,875 Pre-tax Surplus - g = c-f 15,395 5,470 4,258 25,123 Page 3

4 After a muted FY18, we expect pre-sales to pick up over FY19-20E on the back of 8.8mn sqft of residential/commercial new launches and unsold inventory (conso) of 6.2mn sqft 15% FY19-20E rental growth FY19E PAT higher on rerecognition of reversed revenue due to IND AS 115 without recognition of period costs. Key Assumptions and Estimates Volume assumptions Residential - Brigade share (mn sqft) Estimates Growth (%) Comments FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E (19.7) After a muted FY18, we expect pre-sales to pick up over FY19-20E on the back of a strong pipeline of residential/commercial new launches and unsold inventory (conso) of 6.2mn sqft Average rate (Rs/sqft) 5,726 6, Price trend to remain sluggish in FY19 Sales value - Brigade share (Rs mn) 14,001 11, (14.4) Rental Income: Gross area for lease (mnsf) Addition of new assets will lead to a gradual ramp-up of annuity 41.0 portfolio Average Occupancy (%) (1,000.0) Brigade leased space (mnsf) Multiplied by average occupancy Average Rental (Rs/sqft/month) (16.6) (6.7) Rental trend in line with product mix Brigade share - Net rental income (Rs mn) 3,363 3, % FY19-20E rental growth Earnings forecast Residential Sales (Rs mn) 26,690 26, Revenue to improve as recognition hurdles are met over FY19- (1.6) 20E Rental income (Rs mn) 2,863 3, Rental growth in line with new lease addition mentioned above Hospitality (Rs mn) 2,755 3, % FY19-20E growth in line with hospitality assets addition Total 32,309 32, EBIDTA (Rs mn) 8,640 8, EBIDTA Margin (%) (380.3)bps 4.4bps Margins to remain flattish Net interest expense* 2,674 3, Interest to increase marginally PAT (Rs mn) 3,304 2, FY19E PAT higher on re-recognition of reversed revenue due to (10.8) IND AS 115 PAT Margin (%) bps (127.3)bps EPS (Rs) (10.8) Cash flows forecast CFO - a 6,282 7,629 CFI - b (7,046) (8,792) Increased capex to result in negative FCFF FCF - a+b (764) (1,163) CFF-c (2,072) 1,573 Total change in cash - a+b+c (2,836) 409 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Page 4

5 We value the residential Real Estate business at Rs 41/share, Commercial Annuity assets at Rs 309/share, Hospitality at Rs 101/share, Land Bank at Rs 88/share We reduce net debt (economic interest) and balance land payments at Rs 215/share and Rs 17/share respectively, to arrive at a total SOTP valuation of Rs 306/share We maintain BUY on BEL with a TP of 306 Valuation Sum Of The Parts: NAV Target To Rs 306/sh Rs mn Rs/share Comments Gross NAV Residential/Commercial Sale 5, NAV based on the methodology discussed Land Bank 12, NAV based on the methodology discussed Gross NAV Office/Retail/Malls 41, NAV based on the methodology discussed Hotels 13, x FY20E EV/EBIDTA Total GAV (Rs mn) 73, Gross net asset value Less: Net Debt 29, FY19E net debt (economic interest) Less: Unpaid Land Cost 2, As per 2QFY19 presentation NAV 41, Source: HDFC sec Inst Research SOTP valuation We have adopted DCF methodology to arrive at BEL s NAV/share. We value the Residential Real Estate business at Rs 41/share, Commercial Annuity Assets at Rs 309/share, Hospitality at Rs 101/share, Land bank at Rs 88/share and reduce net debt and balance land payments at Rs 215/share and Rs 17/share, respectively, to arrive at a total SOTP valuation of Rs 306/share. We don t ascribe any NAV discount to BEL, as we have only valued projects that have visibility over the next five years. We have valued the land bank beyond that period at current market rates. Real estate development: NAV calculation methodology We have divided BEL s entire land bank (with launch visibility over the next five years) into Residential projects (based on the information given by the company). We have arrived at the sales price/sq ft and anticipated sales volumes for each project, based on our discussions with industry experts. We have deducted the cost of construction based on our assumed cost estimates, which have been arrived at after discussions with experts. We have further deducted marketing and other costs that have been assumed at 5% of the sales revenue. We have deducted income tax based on the tax applicable for the project. The resultant cash inflows at the project level have been discounted, based on WACC of 12% (cost of equity 17% based on beta of 1.6x and debt/equity ratio of 0.5x). All the project-level NAVs have then been summed up to arrive at the NAV of the company. For commercial office/retail space, we have discounted rentals using 12% WACC for the forecasted period and terminal value using the cap rate of 7.7%. For land beyond the five-year visibility, we have valued at the current market price. We have valued Hotels at 15x FY19E EV/EBIDTA From the NAV, we have deducted the net debt (economic interest) and likely outgo on balance land payments to arrive at the final valuation of the company. Page 5

6 1% increase in average base sale price impacts our NAV positively by 1.9% Every 100bps increase in sales price inflation impacts our NAV positively by 5.2% 100bps increase in cost inputs decreases our NAV by 3.4% 100bps increase in discounting rate impacts our NAV negatively by 4.6% We have revised our estimates to reflect the impact of re-recognition of Rs ~23bn reversed sales which would be spread across FY19-20E NAV sensitivity analysis Sensitivity to property prices Our model is sensitive to changes in the assumptions regarding property prices. For every 1% change in the base property prices (see exhibit above for base price assumptions), the NAV will change by approximately 1.9%. NAV Sensitivity To Change In Average Sale Price % change in sale price (10) (5) NAV/share (Rs) Change in NAV (%) (19.3) (9.5) Sensitivity of NAV to changes in sales inflation In our base case, we have assumed annual sale price inflation at 5%. For every 100bps increase in the annual sale price inflation, the NAV will increase by ~5.2%. NAV Sensitivity To Change In Sales Inflation Sales inflation rates (%) NAV/share (Rs) Change in NAV (%) (10.9) (5.4) Change in Estimates (Consolidated) Sensitivity of NAV to changes in cost inflation In our base case, we have assumed the cost of inflation to be 6%. For every 100bps increase in construction cost inflation, the NAV will change by about 3.4%. NAV Sensitivity To Change In Cost Inflation Cost inflation rates (%) NAV/share (Rs) Change in NAV (%) (3.4) (6.9) The combined impact of a 100bps increase in sales price inflation and cost inflation will be a NAV increase of 1.8%. Sensitivity of NAV to changes in the discount rate In our base case, we have assumed a discount rate of 16%. For every 100bps increase in the discount rate, the NAV will fall by 4.6%. NAV Sensitivity To Change In WACC WACC rates (%) NAV/share (Rs) Change in NAV (%) (4.6) (9.1) Rs mn FY19E FY20E New Old % Change / bps New Old % Change / bps Revenues 32,309 20, ,923 25, EBIDTA 8,640 6, ,819 7, EBIDTA Margins (%) (285.7) (171.3) APAT 3,304 1, ,947 1, Adj. EPS (INR) Page 6

7 Income Statement (Consolidated) Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Sales 20,379 20,241 18,972 32,309 32,923 Growth (%) 55.5 (0.7) (6.3) Material Expenses 11,584 10,025 8,448 18,147 17,754 Employee Expenses 1,252 1,433 1,545 1,916 2,203 Other Operating Expenses 2,642 3,040 3,434 3,606 4,147 EBIDTA 4,902 5,744 5,545 8,640 8,819 EBIDTA (%) EBIDTA Growth (%) (3.5) Other Income Depreciation 1,059 1,226 1,377 1,664 2,001 EBIT 4,170 4,861 4,651 7,464 7,311 Interest 1,990 2,465 2,594 2,674 3,029 Exceptional items PBT 2,180 2,396 1,942 4,791 4,282 Tax ,437 1,285 PAT 1,378 1,660 1,314 3,354 2,997 Minority Interest (63) Share of associates EO items (net of tax) APAT 1,240 1,531 1,507 3,304 2,947 APAT Growth (%) (1.5) (10.8) EPS EPS Growth (%) (1.5) (10.8) Balance Sheet (Consolidated) As at March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital 1,132 1,137 1,361 1,361 1,361 Reserves 14,246 15,813 21,510 24,416 26,965 Total Shareholders Funds 15,378 16,950 22,871 25,776 28,326 Minority Interest 1,238 2,274 2,231 2,281 2,331 Long Term Debt 15,004 15,885 26,331 27,331 32,331 Short Term Debt 9,583 9,878 7,566 7,566 7,566 Total Debt 24,587 25,763 33,897 34,897 39,897 Deferred Taxes Long Term Provisions & Others 1,153 1,127 1,725 1,762 1,800 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 42,976 46,569 60,745 64,785 72,779 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 3,499 4,794 8,171 13,407 18,306 CWIP 13,967 15,637 21,291 21,291 22,791 Goodwill Investments + Inv. Property 8,787 10,009 10,380 10,380 10,380 Other Non Current Assets 4,473 4,852 6,927 7,865 9,176 Inventories 23,067 22,639 21,795 24,410 26,851 Debtors ,770 1,787 1,805 Cash & Equivalents 1,089 1,363 3, ST Loans & Advances, Others 3,458 3,624 4,205 4,224 4,442 Total Current Assets 28,044 28,000 31,048 30,864 33,950 Creditors 4,240 5,161 5,265 5,528 5,804 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 11,597 11,605 11,850 13,862 16,063 Total Current Liabilities 15,837 16,767 17,115 19,066 21,867 Net Current Assets 12,207 11,233 13,933 11,798 12,083 Misc Expenses & Others TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 42,976 46,568 60,745 64,785 72,779 Page 7

8 Cash Flow (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Reported PAT 1,614 1, ,354 2,997 Non-operating & EO items (252) (218) (336) (488) (493) Interest expenses 1,990 2,465 2,594 2,674 3,029 Depreciation 1,059 1,226 1,377 1,664 2,001 Working Capital Change (1,025) (1,134) (4,141) (921) 94 OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 3,387 3, ,282 7,629 Capex (9,084) (3,686) (9,140) (7,534) (9,285) Free cash flow (FCF) (5,697) 292 (8,652) (1,252) (1,656) Investments (396) 340 (1,703) INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (9,480) (3,346) (10,842) (7,046) (8,792) Share capital Issuance /Misc , Debt Issuance 9,036 1,747 8,002 1,000 5,000 Interest expenses (2,239) (2,350) (2,232) (2,674) (3,029) Dividend (543) (1) (408) (398) (398) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 6,307 (579) 10,317 (2,072) 1,573 NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (38) (2,836) 409 Non-operating and EO items , Closing Cash & Equivalents 1,089 1,363 3, Key Ratios (Consolidated) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin APAT Margin RoE Core RoCE RoCE EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) Asset Turnover (x) Inventory (days) Debtors (days) Payables (days) Cash Conversion Cycle (days) Debt/EBITDA (x) Net D/E Interest Coverage PER SHARE DATA EPS (Rs/sh) CEPS (Rs/sh) DPS (Rs/sh) BV (Rs/sh) VALUATION P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA OCF/EV (%) FCF/EV (%) (12.0) 0.6 (15.9) (2.1) (2.6) FCFE/Market Cap (%) 4.6 (1.3) (12.0) (12.2) 1.3 Dividend Yield (%) Page 8

9 RECOMMENDATION HISTORY Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Brigade Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 TP Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Date CMP Reco Target 15-Nov BUY Jan NEU Apr BUY May BUY Aug BUY Oct BUY Nov BUY 306 Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period Page 9

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