Performance and Outlook

Transcription

1 Performance and Outlook November 2017 NSE: AXISBANK BSE: LSE (GDR): AXB 1

2 Safe Harbor Except for the historical information contained herein, statements in this release which contain words or phrases such as will, aim, will likely result, would, believe, may, expect, will continue, anticipate, estimate, intend, plan, contemplate, seek to, future, objective, goal, strategy, philosophy, project, should, will pursue and similar expressions or variations of such expressions may constitute "forward-looking statements". These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to our ability to successfully implement our strategy, future levels of non-performing loans, our growth and expansion, the adequacy of our allowance for credit losses, our provisioning policies, technological changes, investment income, cash flow projections, our exposure to market risks as well as other risks. Axis Bank Limited undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date thereof. 2

3 Macro Economic Picture 3

4 Growth in industrial production has been weak 14% 12% 10% 8% Growth in IIP and Components Mining Manufacturing Electricity IIP 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% (% YoY, 3MMA) -4% Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 4

5 Output parameters have partly rebounded Select output indicators 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Cement shows moderate growth Cement Production (RHS) YoY % Mn Tn HCV production picks up sharply after GST 0.1% 21-20% 15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% CV Production (RHS) YoY % 000s 15.3% -30% 30 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Steel production slows Steel Production (RHS) YoY % Car production steady 10 Mn Tn 3.7% -15% 5 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Car Production (RHS) YoY % 000s % % 200 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 5

6 Inflation continues to be benign, but upside risks from food prices, commodities and global factors remain 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% CPI Inflation and components Food+ (45.9%) Fuel+ (6.8%) Core (47.3%) CPI Combined 5.56% 4.47% 3.28% 1.76% 7% 6% 5% 4% 7% 6% 5% %YoY %YoY Urban vs Rural Core_Rural Core_Urban Core _Combined 3% Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 CPI_Rural CPI _Urban CPI _Combined 0% Sep-15-1% Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17-2% 4% 3% 2% 1% Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 6

7 In line with falling inflation, RBI continues to ease rates and the easing is being transmitted by banks Repo Rate vs Axis Bank Lending Rates 10.5% 10.15% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 8.00% Axis Bank Average Base Rate 9.00% 9.35% Axis Bank MCLR 8.25% 200 bps rate cut by RBI since Jan 15 Bank responded with a reduction of 115 bps in the Base Rate Bank has reduced its MCLR too by 110 bps since Apr % 7.0% 6.5% 6.50% 6.25% Repo Rate 6.0% 6.00% 5.5% Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 7

8 Deposit growth aided by demonetization, while credit slowed Banking system credit and deposit growth 19% 16% YoY % Credit growth Deposit growth 13% 10% 7% 4% Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct Industry Credit Growth (FYTD, ` Tn) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Services Credit Growth (FYTD ` Tn ) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Retail Credit Growth (FYTD, ` Tn) Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 8

9 Axis Bank Story 9

10 Axis Bank Today Retail franchise continues to show strong traction Strong market positioning in Payments space Continue to make investments in Digital and Analytics to build on strong position Focus remains on building a quality SME book Significant reduction in concentration risk in the Corporate segment Loan growth momentum starting to come back Credit cycle coming to its last phases. Normalization expected next year Subsidiaries continue to deliver healthy performance 10

11 The retail-ization of Axis Bank has been the bedrock of our financial performance Overall Deposits Overall Advances Overall Fee Income All figures in ` billion Bank CAGR 13% Bank CAGR 17% Bank CAGR 9% 3,580 4,144 3,388 3, ,526 2,809 3,224 1,970 2,301 2, Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Retail % - Deposits Retail % - Advances Retail % - Fee Income Retail Deposits* CAGR 18% Retail Advances CAGR 27% Retail Fees CAGR 19% 68% 75% 78% 81% 81% 33% 38% 40% 41% 45% 31% 32% 38% 40% 44% Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 * Includes CASA and Retail TD 11

12 We have been able to grow retail advances faster than Industry by focusing on our core strengths Banking Industry Retail Advances Axis Bank Retail Advances ` 000 cr 15% CAGR ` 000 cr 27% CAGR 898 1,010 1,166 1,323 1, Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 * Personal Loans from RBI reports on Sectoral deployment of Bank Credit Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Granular Growth Leverage Branch Channel Focus on existing customers 1.54 Customer* Growth (in mn) % Sourcing through branches % Sourcing from existing customers 72% 68% 66% 65% 45% 47% 50% 41% 36% 58% Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 * Include unique customers availing retail loans, rural loans and credit cards 12

13 We have strong market position across Digital Payment Solutions Axis Bank Market Standing Across Products Product Credit Cards 1 Debit Cards 2 Mobile Banking 3 Point of Sale Terminals Forex Cards Savings Accounts Market share 11% 7% 17% 16% 44% 4% Ranking 4 th 4 th 1 st 2 nd 1 st 8 th Source: RBI, Internal Data 1- based on cards issued; 2 based on card spends at point of sale terminals ; 3 based on value (RBI August 2017 data) Savings Accounts data is based on RBI figures as on 31 March

14 Our Cards Issuance business continues to grow and deepen the franchise Cards in Force Market Share 5.6% 7.2% 8.2% 9.9% 11.2% Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Cards Spends Market Share Market Share grew 2X in last 4 years 5.8% 7.1% 8.0% 8.7% 3.9% FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 Source: RBI Data Reports 14

15 We are ranked #1 in mobile spends market share (in ` Crores) Market Share in Mobile Banking (by Value) Our Mobile Banking Spends and Volumes 29% YOY Axis Bank 17.1% % YOY ICICI Bank 17.1% HDFC Bank 16.3% State Bank of India 12.8% 36,745 37,536 41,501 29,760 23,279 Source: RBI data for August 2017 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Mobile transaction volumes (in mn) 15

16 Freecharge helps us augment our digital capabilities and execution capacity More than 2x Customer Base High Frequency Use-cases Digital Distribution Popular Digital-only Brand World Class Team with a start-up mind-set 100% API based Technology Stack Through Freecharge, we intend to. Leverage Payments as a Hook (UPI, QR etc) Target digitally-native, mobile-first SA customers Source and service loans (PL, Cards, Consumer Loans) digitally 16

17 SME - focus remains on building a quality book All figures in ` Crores SME Loan growth 87% of SME exposure* have rating of at least SME3 14% 15% 10% 10% 5% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 14% 14% 14% 14% 15% 45,857 43,208 49,172 47,918 52,718 66% 66% 66% 64% 65% Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 YOY Growth SME 1 SME 2 SME 3 SME 4 SME 5-7 * Only includes standard exposure 17

18 Corporate loan book is now of much better quality with reduced concentration risk Incremental sanctions have been to better rated corporates Concentration Risk is reducing Percentage of sanctions rated A- & above Exposure to Top 20 single borrowers as a % of Tier I Capital 74% 81% 79% 79% 85% 85% 287% 68% 209% 155% 154% 162% 142% 124% 118% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY18 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 18

19 Corporate loan growth driven by Working Capital loans Trend in domestic and overseas corporate loan growth Working Capital loan growth has been strong All figures in ` Crores 19% 158, ,197 10% YOY 10% 33,308 45,148 36% YOY 7% 6% 3% 124, ,049 3% YOY Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Domestic advances Q2FY17 Term loan Q2FY18 Working Capital loan Overseas loan growth in Q2 has been driven by higher disbursements to marquee domestic financial institutions 19

20 Key Balance Sheet parameters continue to report healthy growth All figures represent YOY growth Savings Bank Deposits Current Account Deposits 37% 20% 27% 19% 22% 21% 16% 30% 28% 9% Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Advances Total Assets 18% 10% 10% 12% 16% 18% 15% 11% 11% 13% Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 20

21 Core Operating Profit engine continues to be steady Operating Profit and Core Operating Profit All figures in ` Crores 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 4,640 4,375 4,291 4,100 3,947 3,777 3,565 3, % 3, % 3, % 2.87% 2.39% Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 8% YOY 5% YOY Operating Profit Core Operating Profit (excludes trading profit) Operating Profit Margin Net Profit 1,225 1,306 36% YOY 67% QOQ Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 21

22 Size of stressed asset pool has been reducing steadily BB and Below pool has reduced significantly in the last 6 quarters All figures in ` Crores Watch List (WL) outstanding WL + Restructuring* dispensations Low Rated Corporate portfolio (BB and Below) 26,797 27,411 22,628 20,295 19,542 21,929 20,788 19,685 19,460 13,789 16,193 14,500 13,032 15,815 11,091 9,436 7,941 6,052 10,087 Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Size of BB and Below portfolio reflects cumulative impact of Upgrades / Downgrades and Slippages from the pool. * Includes Restructured Accounts, SDR, S4A and 5:25, etc 22

23 Long term trend in Credit Cost Trend in Credit Cost : FY03 to H1FY18 We expect normalization by the second half of FY % 2.30% 2.56% Credit Cost (excluding RBS impact) = 1.83% 1.35% 1.11% Long Term Average* = 94bps 0.50% 0.61% 0.99% 0.70% 0.54% 0.61% 0.62% 0.61% 1.11% 0.02% 0.21% FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY18 * For the period from FY03 to FY17 23

24 Shareholder return metrics have seen moderation Return on Assets (in %) Return on Equity (in %) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1 FY18* FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1 FY18* Diluted EPS (`) Book Value Per Share (`) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1 FY18* Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 * annualized 24

25 Subsidiaries Performance 25

26 Axis Finance : Has started contributing meaningfully All figures in ` Crores Axis Finance has grown its overall book strongly driving over 7x growth in Income in 3 years 57% CAGR* 4,672 3, , , FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 *3yr CAGR FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Growth in PAT has been steady 16.3% 16.4% 18.9% 71% CAGR* Major Highlights The Income and PAT for H1FY18 stood at `341 Cr and `101 Cr, up 19%YOY and 32%YOY respectively One of the lowest Cost-to-income in the industry 8.9% FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 ROE * 3yr CAGR Advances average maturity at 18 months; 97% of all advances secured Highest Credit Rating for CPs and NCDs by Crisil and India Ratings 26

27 Axis Capital : Continues to maintain its leadership position Equity League tables topper over the last decade Revenue from Operations All figures in ` Crores 194 * Number of deals Source: Primedatabase (FY07 to FY17) FY15 FY16 FY17 Profit After Tax Major Highlights The Income and PAT for H1FY18 stood at `152 Cr and `68 Cr, up 21%YOY and 39%YOY respectively Axis Capital was awarded Best Investment Bank by Finance Asia Ranked No 1 ECM banker having executed deals worth `992 bn since April 2015 FY15 FY16 FY17 Ranked No 1 in Equity and Equity Linked Deals over the last decade 27

28 Axis Securities : Significant growth in customer additions Trend in customer base (in mn) Total Revenue All figures in ` Crores 46% CAGR* FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 * 3yr CAGR FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Non Broking Broking Healthy growth in profit Major Highlights 52 63% CAGR* The Total Revenue and PAT for H1FY18 stood at `438 Cr and `26 Cr, up 32%YOY and 44%YOY respectively Total Customer base as at end of September 2017 stood at 1.59 mn, up 37%.YOY 12 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 * 3yr CAGR Jumped 6 ranks in NSE Unique Traded Client numbers - from 11 th to 5 th in 2 years More than 30% clients trade through AxisDirect mobile app making it one of the highest in the industry 28

29 Axis AMC : Consistently gaining market share ~4x jump in Average AUM in 3 years Gross Revenue 52% CAGR* 48,829 All figures in ` Crores , ,939 23, FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 * 3yr CAGR FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Growth in Profit has been strong Major Highlights The Income and PAT for H1FY18 stood at `354 Cr and `38 Cr, up 43%YOY and 52%YOY respectively Added 0.45 mn investors in last one year taking its overall inverstor folios to 2.4 mn, as at end of Sept FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Average AUM for the quarter ended Q2FY18 stood at ` Crores, up 46% YOY. Easy App & Easy sell: Online platforms for Investors and distributors. 29

30 Thank You 30