MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT NO 2 OF 2014: CARROTS

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1 Tons Rand MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT NO 2 OF 214: CARROTS 1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this document is to analyze the carrot marketing environment. This analysis will be updated on a quarterly basis and the interval covered in the current issue is from January 213 to March 214. The period is subdivided into five, three months long quarters. The main issues discussed in the review are the trends in production, pricing, monthly sale in the national fresh produce markets, exports, imports, growth and volatility. 2. PRODUCTION TRENDS Figure 1 below illustrates the quarterly production volume and gross value of carrot Figure 1: Quarterly production of carrots Quarters Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Volume (Tons) Gross Value (Rand) Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF The period under review opened with fairly moderate volumes and values of Carrots production in January214. As evidenced on the graph above, carrot production has maintained an unsteady trend throughout the period under analysis from quarter 1 of 213 to quarter 1 of 214. The lowest production of carrot was recorded in Q1 214 at tons while the highest production was recorded in Q3 213 at

2 Rand/ton tons. The lowest gross value of carrots production was recorded in Q3 213 at R while the highest production value was recorded in Q4 213 at R Quarterly production value for carrots was R in quarter 1 of 214 which was lower when compared to the quarterly production value in the previous quarter (quarter 4 of 213) and 33.5% higher when compared to the production value during the corresponding period in the previous season (quarter 1, 213). 3. PRICING TRENDS Figure 2 below illustrates the quarterly producer prices of carrots. Quarterly producer price for carrots was R in quarter 1 of 214. This represents an increase of 5.7% when compared to the quarterly producer price of the same product in the previous quarter (quarter 4, 213) and a decline of 58% when compared to the price during the same time in the previous season (quarter 1, 213). Carrot quarterly producer price increased in quarter mainly due to a 35.8% decrease in carrot output in the same quarter. R 5 R 4 5 R 4 R 3 5 R 3 R 2 5 R 2 R 1 5 R 1 Figure 2: Quarterly producer prices for carrots R 5 Quarters R Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Price (Rand/tons) Source: Statistics and Economic Analysis, DAFF 4. Exports Figure 3 below illustrates the quarterly export volumes and values of carrots. Quarterly export volume of carrot was tons in quarter 1 of 214, which represents an increase of 16% when compared to what was exported during the previous quarter (quarter 4, 213) and 36% when compared to the export volume of carrots exported during the corresponding period in 213 (quarter 1 of 213). The quarterly value of carrot export was R in quarter 1 of 214 which was 25% higher than the previous quarter (quarter 4, 213) and the 2

3 Volume (tons) Value (Rand) value increased by 81% when compared to the quarterly export value for the same time in the previous season (quarter 1, 213). It was more profitable to export carrot in quarter 1 of 214 when compared to quarter 1 of 213, since high export values were recorded for less volumes exported Figure 3: Quarterly Carrots Exports Quarters Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Volume (tons) Value (Rand) Source: Quantec Easy data 5. Imports Figure 4 below indicate the quarterly volume and value of carrots imports. Carrot imports were highly unstable and irregular throughout the period under analysis. The highest level of import volume was in Q1 of 213 and the lowest in Q Quarterly import volume for carrots was.1 tons in quarter 1 of 214, which was 98% lower compared to what was imported in the previous quarter (quarter 4, 213). Carrot imports were 99% lower in the first quarter of 214 when compared to the volume imported during the corresponding period in 213 (quarter 1 of 213). The quarterly import value of Carrot was R71 in quarter 1 of 214 which was lower than the quarterly import value in the previous quarter (quarter 4, 213). 3

4 Volume ( tons) Value (Rand) Figure 4: Quarterly Carrot Imports Quarters Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Volume (Tons) Value ( Rand) Source: Quantec Easy data 4

5 6. GROWTH, VOLATILITY & STABILITY ANALYSIS The carrot industry growth rate was calculated from regression analysis results. The volatility and stability measures were determined by calculating the coefficient of variation for the various carrot industry statistical series. The formula for the coefficient of variation is as follows: V x i N where: V = Coefficient of Variation = Standard deviation = mean = observation in quarter i x i N = Number of quarters The outcomes of these growth and volatility calculations are presented in Table 1. They are calculated using quarterly statistics and covered the same five-quarter period under review beginning in January 213 and ending in March 214. Table 1: Carrots industry Growth Rates and Coefficients of Variation (January 213 March 214) Category Subcategory Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation Production Volume -.417%.154 Gross Value of Production Value 8.72%.149 Producer Prices Value 9.14%.146 Export Volume 6.9%.67 Export Value 13.4%.157 Import Volume %.768 Import Value %.787 Source: Calculated from Statistics and Economic Analysis Data As shown in Table 1, on average carrot production volume, gross value of production, producer price, export volume, export value, import volume and import value had coefficients of variation that were less than 1, indicating low levels of volatility throughout the period under review. Carrots industry has experienced positive growth in terms of gross value of production, export volume and export value. The industry has experienced negative growth in terms of production volume, import volume and import value. 5

6 7. Acknowledgements Acknowledgement is given to the following information sources: 7.1 Directorate: Statistics and Economic Analysis Quantec Easy Data For more information contact: Director: Marketing Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Private Bag X 15 Arcadia 7 Tel: (12) Fax: (12) MogalaM@daff.gov.za Website: http//. Deputy Director: Commodity Marketing Tel: (12) Fax: (12) ElvisNak@daff.gov.za Horticulture (Vegetables): Agricultural Economist Tel: (12) Fax: (12) PaulaR@daff.gov.za Disclaimer: This document and its contents have been compiled by the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the purposes of detailing the carrot industry. Anyone who uses this information does so at his/her own risk. The views expressed in this document are those of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries with regard to the industry, unless otherwise stated. The Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries therefore, accepts no liability for losses incurred resulting from the use of this information. 6