Market Outlook 18 July 24 July 2016

Transcription

1 Highlight Treasury Division TMU 01 :(66) TMU 02 :(66) TMU 03 :(66) Market Outlook 18 July 24 July 2016 Last Week: Last week, the dollar index gained against the basket of major currencies as the much stronger-than-expected U.S. employment payrolls. The dollar rose against the yen and fell against the pound sterling, as a surprise decision from the Bank of England (BOE) and expectations of stimulus from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) returned risk appetite to markets. In Thailand, there were tremendous capital inflows in both debt and capital markets during the week which supported the Thai Baht to appreciate passing the resistance level at THB/USD. This Week: During this week, the market will focus on the outcome of Thursday s (21/7) European Central Bank (ECB) meeting to see if the policymakers will step up easing measures to offset the fallout from the Brexit vote. If there are some surprise stimulus programs, the currencies like the euro and the pound will instantly edge down. For the Baht, we expect that it will not move much but still in an appreciated trend because of the capital inflows. The range of the Thai Baht would be between THB/USD and THB/USD.. USD Last week, the dollar index gained against the basket of major currencies as the much stronger-than-expected U.S. employment payrolls report pushed investors to price back in the chance of an increase in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve before the end of the year. The dollar rose against the yen and fell against the pound sterling, as a surprise decision from the Bank of England (BOE) and expectations of stimulus from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) returned risk appetite to markets. On Thursday (14/7), the Federal Reserve policymakers appear to be in no hurry to raise U.S. interest rates despite signs that the U.S. economy is near full employment. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, speaking with reporters in St. Louis, repeated his position that only a single rate rise is needed for the next couple of years unless some unexpected shock moves the economy to a better or worse state. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan comment that the fed should raise U.S. interest rates only gradually and patiently, low rates and excessive accommodation can cause distortions investment and hiring, but it is very important to make the effort to

2 normalize rates. Moreover, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, a non-voter this year at the Fed, said it was possible the Fed could raise rates once, or even twice, this year, if data allowed it. Graph: Dollar Index (DXY) Source: Reuter Comments: This week, we expect the dollar to move in an appreciating trend due to an improvement in risk appetite amid a bounce in equities. However, the dollar is expected to fall in a long-term as expectations that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates any time soon. EUR & GBP The euro opened on Monday (11/7) at /52 USD/EUR, stable against the U.S. dollar compared to previous closing level on Friday (8/7) at /54 USD/EUR. However, the euro appreciated against the U.S. dollar during the week as risk appetite surged after the data on Friday (8/7) showed the better-than-expected U.S. job data. However, On Wednesday (13/7), Eurostat said that the Euro zone industrial production fell to a seasonally adjusted -1.2% in May, from 1.4% in the April, but analysts had expected Euro zone industrial production to fall -0.8%. Moreover, the Euro zone CPI remained unchanged at 0.1% in June compared to previous month. The euro was supported against the U.S. dollar after the BOE held the policy rate

3 unchanged at 0.5%. During last week, the euro moved in a range of USD/EUR before it closed level on Friday (15/7) at /36 USD/EUR. The pound opened on Monday (11/7) at /51 USD/GBP, appreciated against the U.S. dollar compared to the previous week closing level on Friday (8/7) /56 USD/GBP. The pound rose above the 1.30 level against the dollar on Monday (11/7), supported by prospects that Theresa May would become the next U.K. prime minster after Andrea Leadsom, one of the two candidates from Britain s ruling Conservative Party to succeed Prime Minister David Cameron pulled out of the race. The decision removed some of the political uncertainty that has hit the pound since David Cameron announced his decision to step down in the wake of the shock June 23 vote to exit the European Union. But the pound remained under pressure amid mounting expectations for a rate cut from the Bank of England at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Thursday (14/7). Moreover, the pound jumped to the highest level since late June against the dollar on Thursday (14/7) after The monetary policy committee of the Bank of England (BOE) voted eight-to-one to leave the interest rates on hold at 0.5%, dashing expectations for a rate cut, and to leave its quantitative easing program unchanged at 375 billion. While, Bank of England governor Mark Carney hinted that the BOE could approve fresh stimulus measures when meets again on August 4. During last week, the pound moved between the range of USD/GBP before closing level on Friday (17/6) at /71 USD/GBP last week. Graph: EUR and GBP Daily QEUR= Cndl, QEUR=, Bid 15/07/2016, , , , , , (+0.15%) 08/07/ /07/2016 (GMT) Price USD July 2016 Auto

4 Daily QGBP= Cndl, QGBP=, Bid 15/07/2016, , , , , , (+0.24%) 08/07/ /07/2016 (GMT) July 2016 Price USD Auto Source: Reuters Comments: During this week, the market will focus on the outcome of Thursday s (21/7) European Central Bank (ECB) meeting to see if the policymakers will step up easing measures to offset the fallout from the Brexit vote. Moreover, the U.K. will release the employment report (20/7), retail sales (21/7) and manufacturing PMI (22/7). Hence, we believe that both the EUR and the GBP will move within the range of USD/EUR and USD/GBP this week. AUD & NZD The Australian dollar opened at /42 USD/AUD on Monday (11/7), appreciated from the previous Friday (8/7) closing level at /08 USD/AUD. At the beginning of the week, the aussie recovered as Malcolm Turnbull was likely to remain the title as Australia s Prime Minister after the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, had finally conceded election defeat. On Tuesday (12/7), the aussie gained sharply after the National Australia Bank (NAB) announced the business confidence index which rose to 6 unit in June from a reading of 3 in May. Furthermore, the aussie, as a commodity currency, was still supported as an increasing in oil prices after a pipeline leak in Iraq and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that the global demand for the crude production would rise in On Wednesday (13/7), the aussie slightly dropped against the dollar as the China s trade surplus dropped to USD billion in June from USD billion in May. On Thursday (14/7), the aussie gained despite a disappointing job data in Australia0. The employment change added only 7,900 jobs in June, lower than the expectation of a 10,000 jobs increased while the unemployment rate for June rose by 5.8%, up from 5.7% in the previous month. At the end of the week, the aussie rebounded as the major trading partner, China, showed that China Q2-GDP rose 6.7%, higher than the expectation of 6.6% and the industrial production rose 6.2% in June from 5.9%

5 otherwise expected. During the week, the Australian dollar moved in the range of USD/AUD and closed on Friday (15/7) at /47 USD/AUD. The New Zealand dollar opened at /81 USD/NZD on Monday (11/7), appreciated from the previous Friday (8/7) closing level at /61 USD/NZD. Although, there weren t much of the New Zealand s economic datas in this week, the kiwi still moved in an appreciating trend as an increasing in oil prices. At the end of the week, the kiwi dropped sharply against the dollar after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said it would publish an unscheduled update of the economy on July 21. However, investors believed that the RBNZ still concern over the low inflation and they might cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) when they meet in August. During the week, the New Zealand dollar moved in the range of USD/NZD and closed on Friday (15/7) at /85 USD/NZD. Graph: AUD and NZD Daily QAUD= Cndl, QAUD=, Bid 20/07/2016, , , , , , (-0.09%) 07/07/ /07/2016 (GMT) July 2016 Price USD Auto Daily QNZD= Cndl, QNZD=, Bid 20/07/2016, , , , , , (-0.34%) 07/07/ /07/2016 (GMT) Price USD July Auto

6 Source: Reuter Comments: This week, we believe that both currencies will move in a depreciating trend as investors concern over the official view the economy and their monetary policy while the key events of the both currencies are RBA monetary minutes (19/7) and the RBNZ economic update (21/7). Furthermore, the economic data such as consumer price inflation (CPI) of the New Zealand (18/7) and the NAB quarterly business confidence of the Australia (21/7) are in focus. We expect the Australia and the New Zealand dollar to move in the range of USD/AUD and USD/NZD respectively. JPY The JPY opened on Monday (11/7) at /73 JPY/USD, little depreciated from Friday s close at /60 JPY/USD. On Monday, the yen fell against the greenback after the U.S. reported a robust jobs data on Friday (8/7) which saw investors price back in the chance of an increase in interest rates by Federal Reserve before the end of the year. Moreover, the yen weakened as hopes of more monetary stimulus from the BoJ rises after a weekend election victory by Japan s ruling coalition. Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, immediately announced after the victory that he would add further fiscal stimulus which is to continue Abenomics and try to succeed in his aim of bringing the Japanese economy back to life, as well as increasing inflation. Ruling party, also, had told Reuters before the election that the government was ready to spend more than 10 trillion yen. That is causing the yen slide at the moment. In additional, the Monday s new that Britain would have a new prime minister by Wednesday had also boosted risk sentiment, which had served to further dent the yen. The safe-haven yen had tumbled 4% against the dollar; however, the yen rebounded modestly on Wednesday (13/7) after its biggest two-day falls as the strong risk appetite that had taken hold across markets at the start of the week faded a little. At the end of the week, the yen surrendered its early gain on Thursday (14/7) ahead of BoE meeting and hit a three-week low against the dollar on Friday (15/7) at JPY/USD. During a week, the yen move in a range of JPY and closed at JPY/USD

7 Graph: JPY Daily QJPY= Cndl, QJPY=, Bid 20/07/2016, , , , , +0.13, (+0.12%) 07/07/ /07/2016 (GMT July 2016 Price /USD Source: Reuters Comments: The focus now will be on the BoJ policy meeting during July 28-29th whether the BoJ will expand monetary stimulus. The yen is expected to move between JPY/USD next week. THB Last week, the Thai Baht opened on Monday morning (11/7) at 35.18/20 THB/USD, appreciating from Friday s (8/7) closed level at 35.24/26 THB/USD. Despite a better US Nonfarm Payrolls data which was released at 287,000 positions higher than the expectation of 175,000 positions, the Thai Baht gradually appreciated against the US Dollar due the speculation that the US Federal Reserve (FED) would maintain the Fed Fund Rate at 0.25% - 0.5% for a while. As a result, there were tremendous capital inflows in both debt and capital markets in Thailand during the week which supported the Thai Baht to pass the resistance level at THB/USD. On Friday (15/7), Mr. Somkid Jatusripitak, the Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand, commented on an appreciation of the Thai Baht which he viewed it as an acceptable level. The money would go to the places that offer higher return and this applied to the capital flows to Thailand which has a stronger economic foundation. Moreover, Mr. Somkid assured that the Bank of Thailand would be capable of stabilizing the financial markets. Similarly, Mr. Veerathai Santiprabhob, the Governor of the Bank of Thailand (BOT), insured that the BOT possessed several monetary tools which could

8 be employed to the consequences from financial volatility and capital flows. During last week, the Thai Baht was traded in the range of THB/USD before it closed at 34.95/97 THB/USD. Graph: THB Daily QTHB=D3 08/07/ /07/2016 Cndl, QTHB=D3, Trade Price 19/07/2016, , , , , , (+0.07%) Price July Source: Reuters Comments: In this week, the Thai Baht is expected to appreciate further because of the capital inflows. The range of the Thai Baht would be between THB/USD and THB/USD. FX Forecast Currency Support Resistance USD/THB EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/JPY

9 Economic Calendar Last Week Date Event Period Surv(M) Actual Prior 11-Jul NZ Card Spending Retail MoM Jun 0.50% 1.20% -0.30% 11-Jul NZ Card Spending Total MoM Jun % -0.60% 11-Jul JN Machine Orders MoM May 3.20% -1.40% % 11-Jul JN Machine Orders YoY May -8.70% % -8.20% 11-Jul JN Money Stock M2 YoY Jun 3.40% 3.40% 3.40% 11-Jul JN Money Stock M3 YoY Jun 2.80% 2.90% 2.80% 11-Jul AU Home Loans MoM May -2.00% -1.00% 1.70% 11-Jul AU Investment Lending May % -5.00% 11-Jul AU Owner-Occupier Loan Value MoM May % 0.10% 11-Jul JN Machine Tool Orders YoY Jun P % % 11-Jul FR Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Jun Jul IT Industrial Production MoM May 0.10% -0.60% 0.50% 11-Jul IT Industrial Production WDA YoY May 1.10% -0.60% 1.80% 11-Jul IT Industrial Production NSA YoY May % -0.30% 11-Jul CA Housing Starts Jun 189.5k 218.3k 188.6k 11-Jul CA Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Jul Jul US Labor Market Conditions Index Change Jun Jul UK BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY Jun % 0.50% 12-Jul AU ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index Jul Jul JN PPI MoM Jun -0.10% -0.10% 0.20% 12-Jul JN PPI YoY Jun -4.20% -4.20% -4.20% 12-Jul AU NAB Business Conditions Jun Jul AU NAB Business Confidence Jun Jul AU Credit Card Purchases May -- $A26.0b $A23.5b 12-Jul AU Credit Card Balances May -- $A51.9b $A51.8b 12-Jul JN Tertiary Industry Index MoM May -0.70% -0.70% 1.40% 12-Jul GE Wholesale Price Index MoM Jun % 0.90% 12-Jul GE Wholesale Price Index YoY Jun % -2.30% 12-Jul GE CPI MoM Jun F 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 12-Jul GE CPI YoY Jun F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 12-Jul GE CPI EU Harmonized MoM Jun F 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 12-Jul GE CPI EU Harmonized YoY Jun F 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 12-Jul CH Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Jun 0.80% 9.70% -1.00% 12-Jul US NFIB Small Business Optimism Jun Jul US Wholesale Inventories MoM May 0.20% 0.10% 0.60% 12-Jul US Wholesale Trade Sales MoM May 0.50% 0.50% 1.00%

10 Date Event Period Surv(M) Actual Prior 12-Jul US JOLTS Job Openings May Jul NZ Food Prices MoM Jun % -0.50% 13-Jul AU Westpac Consumer Conf Index Jul Jul AU Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM Jul % -1.00% 13-Jul JN Industrial Production MoM May F % -2.30% 13-Jul JN Industrial Production YoY May F % -0.10% 13-Jul JN Capacity Utilization MoM May % -1.00% 13-Jul FR CPI EU Harmonized MoM Jun F 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% 13-Jul FR CPI EU Harmonized YoY Jun F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 13-Jul FR CPI MoM Jun F 0.20% 0.10% 0.20% 13-Jul FR CPI YoY Jun F 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 13-Jul FR CPI Ex-Tobacco Index Jun Jul SP CPI Core MoM Jun % 0.30% 13-Jul SP CPI Core YoY Jun 0.80% 0.60% 0.70% 13-Jul CH Exports YoY CNY Jun 0.30% 1.30% 1.20% 13-Jul CH Imports YoY CNY Jun -1.20% -2.30% 5.10% 13-Jul CH Trade Balance CNY Jun b b b 13-Jul SP CPI EU Harmonised MoM Jun F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 13-Jul SP CPI EU Harmonised YoY Jun F -0.90% -0.90% -0.90% 13-Jul SP CPI MoM Jun F 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 13-Jul SP CPI YoY Jun F -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% 13-Jul CH Trade Balance Jun $45.65b $48.11b $49.98b 13-Jul CH Exports YoY Jun -5.00% -4.80% -4.10% 13-Jul CH Imports YoY Jun -6.20% -8.40% -0.40% 13-Jul IT CPI FOI Index Ex Tobacco Jun Jul IT CPI EU Harmonized YoY Jun F -0.30% -0.20% -0.30% 13-Jul UK Bank of England Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys 13-Jul EC Industrial Production SA MoM May -0.80% -1.20% 1.10% 13-Jul EC Industrial Production WDA YoY May 1.30% 0.50% 2.00% 13-Jul US MBA Mortgage Applications Jul % 14.20% 13-Jul US Import Price Index MoM Jun 0.50% 0.20% 1.40% 13-Jul US Import Price Index YoY Jun -4.60% -4.80% -5.00% 13-Jul CA Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM Jun % 1.80% 13-Jul CA Teranet/National Bank HP Index Jun Jul CA Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY Jun % 9.00% 13-Jul CA Bank of Canada Rate Decision Jul % 0.50% 0.50% Bank of Canada Releases Monetary 13-Jul CA Policy Report 14-Jul US Monthly Budget Statement Jun $19.0b $6.3b $50.5b 14-Jul US U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 14-Jul NZ ANZ Job Advertisements MoM Jun % 0.20% 14-Jul NZ BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Jun

11 Date Event Period Surv(M) Actual Prior 14-Jul UK RICS House Price Balance Jun 10% 16% 19% 14-Jul JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Jul b 428.2b 14-Jul JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Jul b 210.2b 14-Jul JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Jul b 244.3b 14-Jul JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Jul b 113.9b 14-Jul AU Consumer Inflation Expectation Jul % 3.50% 14-Jul NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence Index Jul Jul NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM Jul % 2.30% 14-Jul AU Employment Change Jun 10.0k 7.9k 17.9k 14-Jul AU Unemployment Rate Jun 5.80% 5.80% 5.70% 14-Jul AU Full Time Employment Change Jun k 0.0k 14-Jul AU Part Time Employment Change Jun k 17.9k 14-Jul AU Participation Rate Jun 64.80% 64.90% 64.80% 14-Jul AU New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM Jun % -1.10% 14-Jul AU New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY Jun % 1.70% 14-Jul NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings Jun % 68.50% 14-Jul JN Tokyo Condominium Sales YoY Jun % % 14-Jul UK Bank of England Bank Rate Jul % 0.50% 0.50% 14-Jul UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Jul 375b 375b 375b 14-Jul US Initial Jobless Claims Jul k 254k 254k 14-Jul CA New Housing Price Index MoM May 0.20% 0.70% 0.30% 14-Jul US Continuing Claims Jul k 2149k 2124k 14-Jul CA New Housing Price Index YoY May 2.20% 2.70% 2.10% 14-Jul US PPI Final Demand MoM Jun 0.30% 0.50% 0.40% 14-Jul US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Jun 0.10% 0.40% 0.30% 14-Jul US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM Jun 0.10% 0.30% -0.10% 14-Jul US PPI Final Demand YoY Jun 0.00% 0.30% -0.10% 14-Jul US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Jun 1.00% 1.30% 1.20% 14-Jul US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY Jun % 0.80% 14-Jul US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Jul Jul NZ REINZ House Sales YoY Jun % 13.60% 15-Jul CH Industrial Production YoY Jun 5.90% 6.20% 6.00% 15-Jul CH Industrial Production YTD YoY Jun 5.90% 6.00% 5.90% 15-Jul CH Retail Sales YoY Jun 9.90% 10.60% 10.00% 15-Jul CH Retail Sales YTD YoY Jun 10.20% 10.30% 10.20% 15-Jul CH Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Jun 9.40% 9.00% 9.60% 15-Jul CH GDP YTD YoY 2Q 6.60% 6.70% 6.70% 15-Jul CH GDP SA QoQ 2Q 1.60% 1.80% 1.10% 15-Jul CH GDP YoY 2Q 6.60% 6.70% 6.70% 15-Jul CH New Yuan Loans CNY Jun b b 985.5b 15-Jul CH Aggregate Financing CNY Jun b b 659.9b 15-Jul CH Money Supply M2 YoY Jun 11.40% 11.80% 11.80% 15-Jul CH Money Supply M1 YoY Jun 22.60% 24.60% 23.70%

12 Date Event Period Surv(M) Actual Prior 15-Jul CH Money Supply M0 YoY Jun 6.10% 7.20% 6.30% 15-Jul EC EU27 New Car Registrations Jun % 16.00% 15-Jul TH Foreign Reserves Jul $179.2b $178.7b 15-Jul TH Forward Contracts Jul $16.1b $15.7b 15-Jul IT Trade Balance Total May m 4520m 15-Jul IT Trade Balance EU May m 918m 15-Jul UK Construction Output SA MoM May -1.20% -2.10% 2.50% 15-Jul UK Construction Output SA YoY May -3.50% -1.90% -3.70% 15-Jul IT General Government Debt May b b 15-Jul EC Trade Balance SA May 25.0b 24.5b 28.0b 15-Jul EC Trade Balance NSA May 25.0b 24.6b 27.5b 15-Jul EC CPI MoM Jun 0.20% 0.20% 0.40% 15-Jul EC CPI YoY Jun F 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 15-Jul EC CPI Core YoY Jun F 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% 15-Jul CA Manufacturing Sales MoM May -0.80% -1.00% 1.00% 15-Jul US Retail Sales Advance MoM Jun 0.10% 0.60% 0.50% 15-Jul US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Jun 0.40% 0.70% 0.40% 15-Jul US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Jun 0.30% 0.70% 0.30% 15-Jul US Retail Sales Control Group Jun 0.30% 0.50% 0.40% 15-Jul US CPI MoM Jun 0.30% 0.20% 0.20% 15-Jul US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Jun 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 15-Jul US CPI YoY Jun 1.10% 1.00% 1.00% 15-Jul US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Jun 2.20% 2.30% 2.20% 15-Jul US CPI Index NSA Jun Jul US CPI Core Index SA Jun Jul US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Jun % 1.10% 15-Jul US Empire Manufacturing Jul Jul CA Existing Home Sales MoM Jun % -2.80% 15-Jul US Industrial Production MoM Jun 0.30% 0.60% -0.40% 15-Jul US Capacity Utilization Jun 75.10% 75.40% 74.90% 15-Jul US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Jun 0.30% 0.40% -0.40% 15-Jul US Business Inventories May 0.10% 0.20% 0.10% 15-Jul US U. of Mich. Sentiment Jul P Jul US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Jul P Jul US U. of Mich. Expectations Jul P Jul US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Jul P % 2.60% 15-Jul US U. of Mich Yr Inflation Jul P % 2.60%

13 This Week Date Event Period Surv(M) Actual Prior 18-Jul NZ Performance Services Index Jun Jul NZ CPI QoQ 2Q 0.50% 0.40% 0.20% 18-Jul NZ CPI YoY 2Q 0.50% 0.40% 0.40% 18-Jul UK Rightmove House Prices MoM Jul % 0.80% 18-Jul UK Rightmove House Prices YoY Jul % 5.50% 18-Jul CA Int'l Securities Transactions May b 15.52b 18-Jul CA Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Jul Jul US NAHB Housing Market Index Jul Jul US Total Net TIC Flows May -- -$11.0b $80.4b 19-Jul US Net Long-term TIC Flows May -- $41.1b -$79.6b 19-Jul AU ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index Jul Jul AU HIA House Affordability Index 2Q Jul UK CPI MoM Jun 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 19-Jul UK CPI YoY Jun 0.40% 0.50% 0.30% 19-Jul UK CPI Core YoY Jun 1.30% 1.40% 1.20% 19-Jul UK Retail Price Index Jun Jul UK RPI MoM Jun 0.20% 0.40% 0.30% 19-Jul UK RPI YoY Jun 1.50% 1.60% 1.40% 19-Jul UK RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) Jun 1.50% 1.70% 1.50% 19-Jul UK PPI Input NSA MoM Jun 1.10% 1.80% 2.60% 19-Jul UK PPI Input NSA YoY Jun -0.80% -0.50% -3.90% 19-Jul UK PPI Output NSA MoM Jun 0.20% 0.20% 0.10% 19-Jul UK PPI Output NSA YoY Jun -0.50% -0.40% -0.70% 19-Jul UK PPI Output Core NSA MoM Jun 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% 19-Jul UK PPI Output Core NSA YoY Jun 0.60% 0.70% 0.50% 19-Jul UK House Price Index YoY May % 8.20% 19-Jul EC Construction Output MoM May % -0.20% 19-Jul EC Construction Output YoY May % -0.40% 19-Jul GE ZEW Survey Current Situation Jul Jul GE ZEW Survey Expectations Jul Jul EC ZEW Survey Expectations Jul Jul US Housing Starts Jun 1165k 1189k 1164k 19-Jul US Housing Starts MoM Jun 0.20% 4.80% -0.30% 19-Jul US Building Permits Jun 1150k 1153k 1138k 19-Jul US Building Permits MoM Jun 1.20% 1.50% 0.70% 20-Jul AU Westpac Leading Index MoM Jun % 0.21% 20-Jul AU Skilled Vacancies MoM Jun % 1.00% 20-Jul JN Nationwide Dept Sales YoY Jun % -5.10% 20-Jul JN Tokyo Dept Store Sales YoY Jun % -4.50% 20-Jul GE PPI MoM Jun 0.20% 0.40% 0.40%

14 Date Event Period Surv(M) Actual Prior 20-Jul GE PPI YoY Jun -2.40% -2.20% -2.70% 20-Jul JN Convenience Store Sales YoY Jun % 20-Jul EC ECB Current Account SA May b 20-Jul EC Current Account NSA May b 20-Jul UK Claimant Count Rate Jun 2.20% % 20-Jul UK Jobless Claims Change Jun 3.5k k 20-Jul UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY May 2.30% % 20-Jul UK Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY May 2.40% % 20-Jul UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths May 5.00% % 20-Jul UK Employment Change 3M/3M May 73k -- 55k 20-Jul IT Current Account Balance May m 20-Jul US MBA Mortgage Applications Jul % 20-Jul EC Consumer Confidence Jul A Jul 27-Jul TH Car Sales Jun Jul NZ Net Migration SA Jun Jul CH Swift Global Payments CNY Jun % 21-Jul AU NAB Business Confidence 2Q Jul AU RBA FX Transactions Government Jun m 21-Jul AU RBA FX Transactions Market Jun m 21-Jul AU RBA FX Transactions Other Jun m 21-Jul CH Bloomberg July China Economic Survey 21-Jul NZ Credit Card Spending MoM Jun % 21-Jul NZ Credit Card Spending YoY Jun % 21-Jul JN All Industry Activity Index MoM May -1.10% % 21-Jul JN Supermarket Sales YoY Jun % 21-Jul JN Machine Tool Orders YoY Jun F % 21-Jul FR Business Survey Overall Demand Jul Jul FR Business Confidence Jul Jul FR Manufacturing Confidence Jul Jul FR Production Outlook Indicator Jul Jul FR Own-Company Production Outlook Jul Jul UK Bloomberg July United Kingdom Economic Survey 21-Jul SP Trade Balance May m 21-Jul UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM Jun -0.60% % 21-Jul UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY Jun 4.80% % 21-Jul UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM Jun -0.60% % 21-Jul UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY Jun 5.00% % 21-Jul UK Public Finances (PSNCR) Jun b 21-Jul UK Central Government NCR Jun b 21-Jul UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Jun 9.2b b

15 Date Event Period Surv(M) Actual Prior 21-Jul UK PSNB ex Banking Groups Jun 9.5b b 21-Jul EC ECB Main Refinancing Rate Jul % % 21-Jul EC ECB Deposit Facility Rate Jul % % 21-Jul EC ECB Marginal Lending Facility Jul % % 21-Jul EC ECB Asset Purchase Target Jul EU80b Jul US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jun Jul CA Wholesale Trade Sales MoM May 0.20% % 21-Jul EC ECB President Draghi Speaks to Press After Rate Decision 21-Jul US Initial Jobless Claims Jul k k 21-Jul US Continuing Claims Jul k k 21-Jul US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Jul Jul US FHFA House Price Index MoM May 0.40% % 21-Jul US Bloomberg Economic Expectations Jul Jul US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Jul Jul US Existing Home Sales Jun 5.48m m 21-Jul US Existing Home Sales MoM Jun -0.90% % 21-Jul US Leading Index Jun 0.20% % 22-Jul JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Jul b 22-Jul JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Jul b 22-Jul JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Jul b 22-Jul JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Jul b 22-Jul CH MNI July Business Indicator 22-Jul JN Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Jul P Jul FR Markit France Manufacturing PMI Jul P Jul FR Markit France Services PMI Jul P Jul FR Markit France Composite PMI Jul P Jul GE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Jul P Jul TH Foreign Reserves Jul $179.2b 22-Jul TH Forward Contracts Jul $16.1b 22-Jul GE Markit Germany Services PMI Jul P Jul GE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Jul P Jul EC ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters 22-Jul IT Industrial Sales MoM May % 22-Jul IT Industrial Sales WDA YoY May % 22-Jul IT Industrial Orders MoM May % 22-Jul IT Industrial Orders NSA YoY May % 22-Jul EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul P Jul EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jul P Jul EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jul P Jul UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Jul P Jul UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Jul P

16 Date Event Period Surv(M) Actual Prior 22-Jul UK Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Jul P Jul IT Retail Sales MoM May -0.20% % 22-Jul IT Retail Sales YoY May 1.00% % 22-Jul CA Retail Sales MoM May 0.00% % 22-Jul CA Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM May 0.30% % 22-Jul CA CPI NSA MoM Jun 0.10% % 22-Jul CA CPI YoY Jun 1.40% % 22-Jul CA Consumer Price Index Jun Jul CA CPI Core MoM Jun -0.10% % 22-Jul CA CPI Core YoY Jun 2.00% % 22-Jul CA CPI SA MoM Jun 0.40% % 22-Jul CA CPI Core SA MoM Jun 0.20% % 22-Jul US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jul P