Analyst s Handbook: S&P 500 Energy

Transcription

1 Analyst s Handbook: S&P Energy September, Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Mali Quintana aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Energy 1 S&P : Energy 2 S&P /4/6 Energy YTD 3 Earnings 4 Revenues & Margins 5 Earnings Growth & Valuation 6 September, / Analyst s Handbook: S&P Energy www.

3 Figure 1. S&P ENERGY STOCK PRICE INDEX* S&P Energy / day moving average. * Ratio scale. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics..55 Figure S&P ENERGY (as a ratio of S&P ) / Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 199, then weekly. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation..15. Page 1 / September, / Analyst s Handbook: S&P Energy www.

4 Figure 3. S&P ENERGY 9/ S&P INTEGRATED OIL & GAS (CVX OXY XOM) S&P : Energy 9/ S&P OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES (BHI FTI HAL NOV SLB) 9/ S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION (APA APC CHK COG COP CRC CXO DVN EOG EQT HES MRO MUR NBL NFX PXD RRC SWN XEC) 9/ S&P OIL & GAS DRILLING (DO HP RIG) S&P OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING (MPC PSX TSO VLO) 9/ / day moving average Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 2 / September, / Analyst s Handbook: S&P Energy www.

5 S&P /4/6 Energy YTD All Sectors Energy Sector Drilling Equipment & Services Integrated Exploration & Production Figure 4. S&P LargeCap S&P 4 MidCap S&P 6 SmallCap Refining & Marketing Storage & Transportation Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation Page 3 / September, / Analyst s Handbook: S&P Energy www.

6 Figure 5. Earnings S&P ENERGY OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. 4 Figure 6. S&P ENERGY NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* Sep NERI Jul.5 Aug Sep * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Page 4 / September, / Analyst s Handbook: S&P Energy www.

7 8 7 6 Figure 7. S&P ENERGY REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Revenues & Margins Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly Figure 8. S&P ENERGY PROJECTED PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (4.8) * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 5 / September, / Analyst s Handbook: S&P Energy www.

8 75 Figure 9. S&P ENERGY LTEG VS STEG (percent) Earnings Growth & Valuation LTEG* (.6) STEG* (58.9) STEG capped at 8% * STEG: 12- month (52-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: 5-year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. 6 Figure. S&P ENERGY VALUATION 6 4 Forward P/E* (27.5) Relative P/E** (1.5) PEG Ratio*** (1.1) Relative P/E capped at 3. PEG capped at * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus 5-year LTEG forecast. Page 6 / September, / Analyst s Handbook: S&P Energy www.

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