Major economic developments and outlooks

Transcription

1 1 Majr ecnmic develpments and utlks 1) Thailand s ecnmic grwth was firmer than expected, mainly frm strength in dmestic demand especially private investment ) Exprts shw signs f bttming ut and are pised t recver gradually, returning nrmal in 1 H ) Lking ahead, risks t ecnmic grwth decline given signs f stabilizatin in the glbal ecnmy ) Inflatin utlk remains benign due t subdued cst pressure and the limited impact f minimum wage hike n dmestic prices ) Financial stability risks still warrant clse mnitring in the perid ahead

2 1 Dmestic demand mmentum appeared strng in 1 H Dmestic demand expanded mre than prjected in 1 Q and Q Private investment resumed acceleratin n the back f unfinished recnstructin especially in the IC industry Machinery imprts cntinued edging higher in Q Cnsumptin expanded favrably partly frm the hastened car delivery by autmakers under the first-time car buyer scheme, while nn-autmbile cnsumptin cntinued t expand 1 Investment prspects will remain sund ging frward Majr supprtive factrs: Recnstructin cntinuing frm late 1 Prductin adjustments aiming t 8 Accmmdate grwing dmestic demand Shift tward greater capital intensity, given labr shrtage and rising wages Prepare fr pprtunity in neighbring g cuntries Pssible crwding-in effect f public infrastructure prjects Business cnfidence, cnducive mnetary cnditins, and lwered crprate incme taxes Ttal amunt f prmtin certificate issuances (accumulative fr each year) Billin baht Jan Apr Jul Oct Surce: Office f the Bard f Investment (BOI)

3 1 while cnsumptin mmentum is likely t be sustained The first-car scheme, with the ttal number f applicants exceeding ne millin, will cntinue t supprt cnsumptin in 1 Lwered persnal incme taxes will translate int higher dispsable incme Other supprtive factrs include husehld s strng incme prspects partly frm the minimum wage hike, cnsumer cnfidence, and accmmdative mnetary cnditins Seasnally adjusted, mma (1 = 1) Jan 11 Ttal Retail Sales Index Excluding sale f mtr vehicles* Apr Jul Oct Jan 1 Apr Jul Oct Nte: *Sale f mtr vehicles accunts fr % f the index. Surce: Revenue Department and Bank f Thailand s calculatins Exprts appear t have bttmed ut and are pised t recver gradually, returning nrmal in 1 H Incipient signs f recvery have been bserved in mst prducts and markets Merchandise exprts are 1 expected t recver gradually, 9 in line with prjected recvery 8 in trading partners ecnmies 7 Exprt value f majr prducts (excl. gld) Seasnally adjusted, mma (May 1 = 1) 1 %YY Prjected value f exprts f gds 11 Exprts excl. gld Agriculture (1.%) Agr-manu (1.%) Electrnics (1.7%) Electrical Appliances (.1%) Autmtive (1.%) Nv Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nv Surce: Custms Department and Bank f Thailand s calculatins

4 Thailand s grwth utlk imprves verall %YY Oct 1 Jan 1 Oct 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 GDP Grwth Private Investment Private Cnsumptin Exprts f Gds and Services Risks t ecnmic grwth decline with increased stability in the glbal ecnmy Risks decline mainly frm: Lwer prbability f Greece s exit frm the eur area, given recent prgresses n public debt prblems Prgresses n fiscal cncerns Wrse-case assumptins n trading partners ecnmic grwth %YY 1 Trading partners GDP %YY Oct Jan in the U.S., thugh uncertainty remains regarding debt ceiling and sequestratin Prjectin perid Oct 1 (Wrse Case) Jan 1 (Wrse Case) 8

5 Given reduced glbal ecnmic risks, the grwth fan chart is dwnward-skewed t an extent lesser than in the previus prjectin GDP grwth frecast Last IR Lwer Bund (Oct 1) Last IR Upper Bund (Oct 1) Annual change (%) Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q1 1 Nte: The fan chart cvers 9 percent f the prbability distributin. 9 Inflatin utlk remains benign Demand pressure is pised t rise slightly with dmestic demand strength Iflti Inflatin frecasts But cst pressure will remain subdued: Oil price tends t stabilize p.11 Nn-fuel cmmdity price is viewed t mderate given sft utturns in 1 Q The impact f the minimum wage hike n price levels is assessed t be limited Overall risks t inflatin remain largely unchanged, in line with businesses flattening inflatin expectatins 1* 1 1 Cre Inflatin (.1) (1.7) Headline Inflatin (.) (.8) Nte: *Outturns ( ) Inflatin Reprt Octber 1 1

6 Dwnside risks t inflatin decrease in tandem with dmestic demand strength Headline inflatin frecast Cre inflatin frecast Annual change (%) Annual change (%) last IR upper bund (Oct 1) last IR lwer bund (Oct 1) 8 Last IR lwer bund (Oct 1) Last IR upper bund (Oct 1) Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q Q1 11 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q1 1-1 Nte: The fan charts cver 9 percent f the prbability distributin. 1 Financial stability risks still warrant clse mnitring Vlatility f capital flws Risks frm acceleratin in credits and husehld debts Impact f the secnd-rund minimum wage hike n grwth and inflatin 1

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