Group strategy update. Michel M. Liès, Group Chief Executive Officer Investors' Day, Zurich, 24 June 2013
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1 Group strategy update Michel M. Liès, Group Chief Executive Officer Investors' Day, Zurich, 24 June 2013
2 Investors' Day 2013 Group CEO's highlights Swiss Re Group strategy is unchanged Focus on execution, keeping the pressure on High growth markets contribution is growing Productivity emphasis to control expenses L&H Reinsurance is "back in the game" In-depth review, incl. pre-2004 US business Concrete actions to improve L&H profitability ROE expected to increase to 10-12% by 2015 Capital and asset management stepped up Improving ROE and EPS through deleveraging Rebalancing assets faster to mid-term plan Growing regular dividends and our business 2
3 Agenda Group strategy Michel M. Liès Group CEO High growth markets Productivity emphasis Outlook and Q&A 3
4 Swiss Re's Group strategy Unchanged, focus on execution Current position Outperform our peers Reinsurance Asset Management Admin Re Smart expansion Corporate Solutions Longevity & Health High Growth Markets Strategic goal: The leading player in the wholesale re/insurance industry 4
5 Business Unit strategies Unchanged Swiss Re Group Reinsurance Corporate Solutions Admin Re P&C L&H Strategic goal To be the world's leading reinsurer Current position The foundation of our strengths Strategic goal To be a focused, lean, global player in large commercial business Current position A key opportunity for growth Strategic goal To be a recognised force in the closed life book market Current position Providing cash dividends 5
6 Investor perceptions Feedback on Swiss Re's strategy and "equity story"? Frequency mentioned more less Swiss Re investor perception survey, May 2013; in-depth anonymised interviews with a sample of investors and analysts, conducted by Brunswick Group LLP. Unprompted "top of mind" items when asking about Swiss Re's strengths and weaknesses. Only items that were independently mentioned several times listed. 6
7 "L&H Reinsurance performance" An attractive business that plays to our strengths The vast majority of our L&H Re business performs at or above our profitability requirements We have an underperforming pre-2004 US book of business which is being addressed by management and further reduced in relative size by writing profitable new business Additional management actions which cover the entire portfolio are underway Less exposed to guarantees and interest rate risks than primary players: we are focused on biometric risks and a widening "protection gap" Slide title refers to Swiss Re investor perception survey, see slide 6. 7
8 "Admin Re " Strategy focused on three key drivers Key strategic drivers Selective Growth Value Extraction Pursue selective growth strategy to build and enhance Admin Re franchise Third party capital remains a focal point Consistent management of portfolio of assets and blocks of businesses Sale of Admin Re US business in 2012 Operational Excellence Scalable operating platform Consistent, reliable customer service Gross Cash Generation Additional achievements USD 1.2bn of dividends upstreamed to Group in the course of 2012 Additional gross cash generation of USD bn targeted for E Operational improvements to platform and cost position Group dependence reduced, arms-length agreements Risk, compliance, capital management capabilities remain at Group standards Slide title refers to Swiss Re investor perception survey, see slide 6. 8
9 "Asset management too risk adverse" Accelerated rebalancing towards our mid-term plan We accelerated the rebalancing of our assets in the first half of 2013 We plan to have moved the asset allocation towards the upper range of our mid-term plan by end of the year Asset allocation should move closer towards peers' levels, while remaining balanced overall and as a result we expect a higher running income and potential for capital appreciation Target capital structure to move closer to peers' levels, too: Group leverage to reduce by more than USD 4bn by 2016 Slide title refers to Swiss Re investor perception survey, see slide 6. 9
10 Agenda Group strategy Michel M. Liès Group CEO High growth markets Productivity emphasis Outlook and Q&A 10
11 High growth markets (HGMs) Premium growth with strong compounding effect Market premium (real) growth E CAGR Cumulative Emerging Asia MENA and Turkey 9% 14% 468% 213% Emerging Asia has so far sustained the highest growth rates Latin America 8% 173% CEE 6% 124% Sub-Saharan Africa 3% 55% High growth markets World 2% 10% 233% 34% High growth markets expected to continue to grow faster than mature markets Mature markets 1% 21% Source: Swiss Re Economic Research and Consulting 11
12 Swiss Re is broadly diversified HGM contribution growing in all geographies Swiss Re Group net premiums earned (USD 25.4bn) by region (in USD bn) Americas EMEA Asia 38% 42% 20% of which HGMs: ~3% ~3% ~9% 15% Well on track towards target of 20-25% of premiums from HGMs by 2015 Further business exposure in HGMs expected through direct investments 1 Includes fee income from policyholders 12
13 Swiss Re's focus high growth markets Five markets jointly targeted across Swiss Re Group Mexico Turkey UAE China India South Korea Hong Kong Colombia Brazil Singapore Indonesia Chile South Africa Reinsurance and Corporate Solutions Corporate Solutions 13
14 Actions for profitable growth in the HGMs Dedicated strategies across all lines of business HGM initiatives Reinsurance: organic growth, partnerships e.g. with local market reinsurers Corporate Solutions: organic growth, new offices, acquisitions Lines of business with particular HGM angle: Nat Cat Agro Infrastructure Health and medical Solvency relief Direct investments, e.g. into HGM (re)insurers Stronger diversity of employee base 2012 HGMs 15% of Swiss Re Group premiums 1, ~11% of profits E HGMs 20-25% of Swiss Re Group premiums E (re)insurance market opportunity: Estimated premium pool of USD >100bn in reinsurance and USD ~2,000bn in primary insurance 1 Gross earned premiums for the Swiss Re Group across all business units 2 Pre-tax profits after cost of capital 14
15 Agenda Group strategy Michel M. Liès Group CEO High growth markets Productivity emphasis Outlook and Q&A 15
16 Productivity emphasis Improve efficiency, redeploy for higher returns Swiss Re's Group management expense ratio 1 "breathes" with cycle management Management expenses are used for creating leading skills in areas core to our strategy, leading to superior results e.g. underwriting Goal is not to "cut costs", rather to control management expenses at lower levels in a sustainable way, supporting financial targets 11% 10% 9% 8% Management expense ratio (Swiss Re Group) Core productivity USD m cash savings by 2015E vs 2012 All functions across Swiss Re have savings targets Additional cross-functional levers: sourcing, shared services, etc. Reinvestment Main focus on redeploying savings to higher return opportunities Controls, Culture Group tracks cost targets and audits Enforcing right mindset: Group CEO cold calls to cost centre owners 1 Definition: "Other expenses" divided by sum of "Net Premiums earned " and "Net investment income - non-participating" 16
17 Group financial targets Delivering on the targets remains our top priority ROE 700 bps above risk free average over 5 years ( ) EPS growth 10% average annual growth rate, adjusted for special dividends 1 ENW per share growth plus dividends 10% avg. annual growth rate over 5 years in % in USD in USD Q = reported ROE = 700 bps above US Gov 5 years avg E Q = reported EPS 2015E = avg. annual growth (base: 2010), adjusted for special dividends E = reported ENWPS including cumulative dividends in USD 4 = 10% avg. annual growth (base: 2010) 1 EPS CAGR of 10% has been adjusted to 5% for 2013 to account for the distribution of excess capital through the special dividend of USD 1.5bn in April Special dividend assumed to be fully reinvested and thus comparable to excess capital re-deployment via share buyback at a share price of approx. CHF 70 2 Assumes constant foreign exchange rate 3 Excl. CPCI 4 Cumulative dividends included in ENW per share were translated from CHF to USD using the fx rate of the dividend payment date; dividends included for 2011: USD 3.1 (CHF 2.75), 2012: USD 6.4 (additional CHF 3.00 or USD 3.3 on top of the 2011 dividend) 1 17
18 Agenda Group strategy Michel M. Liès Group CEO High growth markets Productivity emphasis Outlook and Q&A 18
19 Looking beyond 2015 Longer-term strategic themes (selection) Management priorities (selection) Risk pool for nat cat grows fast, attracting increasing amounts of alternative capital Capital structure and management Swiss Re Group strategy and financial targets Strong growth in high growth markets fuel demand in all lines of (re)insurance business 'Big Data' and smart analytics impact insurance underwriting, pricing and marketing Profitability requirements and targets Productivity management Swiss Re Group strategy and financial targets New distribution channels in insurance offer substantial new opportunities Talent management 19
20 Priorities for the Group CEO Perform and grow Group strategy Strategy unchanged, focus on execution, keeping the pressure on Continued emphasis on high growth markets for all business lines Productivity emphasis to control mgmt. expenses at lower levels 1 Address low returns in L&H L&H Reinsurance: ROEs expected to improve to 10-12% by Admin Re : continue to evaluate deals based on Group profitability requirements; strengthen operational efficiency; third-party capital Capital and asset management Continue active capital management in line with dividend policy, USD >4bn deleveraging planned by 2016, improving EPS and ROE 1 Asset rebalancing towards mid-term plan for credit and equity accelerated in 2013, utilising approx. USD 3bn of economic capital 1 Outperform our peers in P&C P&C Reinsurance: successful renewals at adequate rate levels expected to continue, expect net premium growth from expiry of QS Corporate Solutions: on track to achieve profitable growth targets 1 Added/updated priorities in bold 20
21 RESTRICTED DO NOT DISTRIBUTE OR MAKE COPIES Q&A
22 Corporate calendar & contacts Corporate calendar 08 August 2013 Second Quarter 2013 results Conference call 09 September 2013 Investors and Media meeting Monte Carlo 07 November 2013 Third Quarter 2013 results Conference call 20 February 2014 Annual Results Conference call Investor Relations contacts Hotline Eric Schuh Ross Walker Chris Menth Lorenz Fichter Simone Fessler
23 Cautionary note on forward-looking statements Certain statements and illustrations contained herein are forward-looking. These statements (including as to plans objectives, targets and trends) and illustrations provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or current fact. Forward-looking statements typically are identified by words or phrases such as anticipate, assume, believe, continue, estimate, expect, foresee, intend, may increase and may fluctuate and similar expressions or by future or conditional verbs such as will, should, would and could. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause Swiss Re s actual results of operations, financial condition, solvency ratios, liquidity position or prospects to be materially different from any future results of operations, financial condition, solvency ratios, liquidity position or prospects expressed or implied by such statements or cause Swiss Re to not achieve its published targets. Such factors include, among others: further instability affecting the global financial system and developments related thereto, including as a result of concerns over, or adverse developments relating to, sovereign debt of euro area countries; further deterioration in global economic conditions; Swiss Re s ability to maintain sufficient liquidity and access to capital markets, including sufficient liquidity to cover potential recapture of reinsurance agreements, early calls of debt or debt-like arrangements and collateral calls due to actual or perceived deterioration of Swiss Re s financial strength or otherwise; the effect of market conditions, including the global equity and credit markets, and the level and volatility of equity prices, interest rates, credit spreads, currency values and other market indices, on Swiss Re s investment assets; changes in Swiss Re s investment result as a result of changes in its investment policy or the changed composition of its investment assets, and the impact of the timing of any such changes relative to changes in market conditions; uncertainties in valuing credit default swaps and other credit-related instruments; possible inability to realise amounts on sales of securities on Swiss Re s balance sheet equivalent to their mark-to-market values recorded for accounting purposes; the outcome of tax audits, the ability to realise tax loss carryforwards and the ability to realise deferred tax assets (including by reason of the mix of earnings in a jurisdiction or deemed change of control), which could negatively impact future earnings; the possibility that Swiss Re s hedging arrangements may not be effective; the lowering or loss of one of the financial strength or other ratings of one or more Swiss Re companies, and developments adversely affecting Swiss Re s ability to achieve improved ratings; the cyclicality of the reinsurance industry; uncertainties in estimating reserves; uncertainties in estimating future claims for purposes of financial reporting, particularly with respect to large natural catastrophes, as significant uncertainties may be involved in estimating losses from such events and preliminary estimates may be subject to change as new information becomes available; the frequency, severity and development of insured claim events; acts of terrorism and acts of war; mortality, morbidity and longevity experience; policy renewal and lapse rates; extraordinary events affecting Swiss Re s clients and other counterparties, such as bankruptcies, liquidations and other credit-related events; current, pending and future legislation and regulation affecting Swiss Re or its ceding companies, and the interpretation of legislation or regulations by regulators; legal actions or regulatory investigations or actions, including those in respect of industry requirements or business conduct rules of general applicability; changes in accounting standards; significant investments, acquisitions or dispositions, and any delays, unexpected costs or other issues experienced in connection with any such transactions; changing levels of competition; and operational factors, including the efficacy of risk management and other internal procedures in managing the foregoing risks. These factors are not exhaustive. Swiss Re operates in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Swiss Re undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This communication is not intended to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and does not constitute an offer for the sale of, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities in any jurisdiction, including the United States. Any such offer will only be made by means of a prospectus or offering memorandum, and in compliance with applicable securities laws. 23
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