Countryside Properties PLC Capital Markets Day - 27 June CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
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1 Countryside Properties PLC Capital Markets Day - 27 June CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
2 Introduction Ian Sutcliffe 1 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
3 Agenda 2:00pm 2:15pm 2:40pm 3:05pm 3:35pm 4:05pm 4:30pm- 5.00pm Introduction and current trading Ian Sutcliffe Housebuilding growth Phillip Lyons / Iain McPherson Partnerships bid opportunities Jim Dodd / Rebecca Worthington Coffee and break outs PRS, standard house types and modular build Ian Kelley / Les Brown Westleigh Mike Scott / Matt Moore Wrap up and Q&A Ian Sutcliffe Drinks & canapés 2 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
4 Our strategy is working Growth Industry leading strategic land Increasing Partnerships opportunity Strong growth from mixed tenure delivery Returns Operating margin increasing Low capital model Asset turn and earnings growth drive ROCE Resilience Balanced business model Lower reliance on private sales Balance sheet strength 3 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
5 Capital allocation Organic growth of Partnerships Organic growth of Housebuilding Acquisitions and geographic expansion Increased shareholder returns 4 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
6 Current trading in line with expectations Open sales outlets up 25% at 60 (2017: 48) Average weekly site visitors up 3% YoY Net reservation rate at 0.88 (2017: 0.89) House price inflation of 3% Build cost inflation at 3% to 4% Full Q3 trading statement on 26 July 2018 Source: Data for 38 week period 5 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
7 Housebuilding growth Phillip Lyons and Iain McPherson 6 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
8 Experienced management team HOUSEBUILDING Phillip Lyons Chief Executive Housebuilding 1 years service 35 years experience David Everett MD Central 29 years service 43 years experience Chris Bladon MD East 20 years service 20 years experience Iain McPherson MD South 4 years service 23 years experience Paul Beaney MD Millgate 22 years service 27 years experience Andrew Carrington MD Strategic Land 14 years service 23 years experience 7 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
9 Strong Housebuilding growth and improving returns COMPLETIONS OPERATING MARGIN 24% CAGR 1,197 1, bps 17.6% % 15.9% 16.6% E E OPERATING PROFIT ( m) % CAGR RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED +540bps 21.0% 18.0% 16.6% 22.0% E E Note: Group financials are shown on an adjusted basis to include the proportional contribution of the joint ventures and associate and exclude non-underlying items; 2018 figures based on consensus 8 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
10 Areas of operation in economic resilient geographies Active CAMBRIDGESHIRE Sites focused within 50 miles of London Future Office SUFFOLK No exposure to Central London (zones 1 and 2) Target areas of economic resilience BUCKINGHAMSHIRE HERTFORDSHIRE ESSEX Target owner occupiers and affordable housing OXFORDSHIRE GREATER LONDON Four regional offices with further growth capacity BERKSHIRE SURREY KENT HAMPSHIRE WEST SUSSEX EAST SUSSEX 9 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
11 Repositioning sales price points Owner occupiers 96% in HY18 First Time Buyers 49% in HY18 Average Selling Price actively managed down Average square footage reduced from 1,456 FY15 to 1,251 in FY18 No reduction in build quality or strength of location Help to Buy 44% of HY18 completions PRIVATE AVERAGE SALES PRICE ( 000) c E Note: 2018 figures based on company information 10 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
12 Strong growth and capital discipline HOUSEBUILDING TNAV 26% CAGR E Continued earnings growth driving TNAV Improvement in asset turn (1.3x in FY17) and operating margin driving ROCE Capital allocation focused on enabling strategic land Flexibility from option structured land Surplus land and commercial sales generating up to 15m profit per year Funds invested in legacy sites reduced from 74m in FY15 to 13m in FY18 Note: 2018 figures based on consensus 11 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
13 Improving portfolio of site performance ROCE 24% GM = 100m total site revenue 50%+ 40% 30% 20% 10% Mill Hill Horsted Park 25% ROCE Harold Wood 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Gross margin 12 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
14 Industry-leading strategic land 4.5 years owned land with over 10 years controlled at current volume Average 10% discount to OMV protects value Over 6bn of GDV contained within the land bank, delivering 1.5bn GM Annual land and infrastructure spend of approximately 180m 29% of land bank owned Open Market 15% Legacy 2% 212 plots 3,050 plots 19,741 Plots Strategic 83% 16,479 plots Legacy sites coming to an end Strategically sourced land underpins future growth Note: As at 31 March CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
15 Resilient mix of sites in high quality locations Strong locations which are resilient to economic change Target growth areas and transport corridors, where infrastructure underpins demand Strategic land promotion avoids direct competition for land Focus on delivering low rise family housing Continued focus on placemaking and high quality design adding value LANK BANK BY SITE SIZE 1, Average c. 200 plots PHASING LAND BY SOURCE 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Strategic plots Other plots 14 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
16 Increased use of standard house types Simplifies process, improving both build time and quality 35 standard houses with 12 core house types Over 70% of HY18 completions used standard house types Standard details, components and specifications across the HB division 93% compliance to group procurement deals Design quality, street scene and place making maintained The Elder, 1,051 sq ft, 3 bed Hawfinch, 1,589 sq ft, 4 bed 15 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
17 Driving operational efficiency Build cost inflation in line with house price inflation at around 3% Operational efficiencies from Procurement Prelims Variation orders Loss and damage Build quality Contra charging Operating margins underpinned by further efficiencies Increased volume driving overhead efficiency DRIVING OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY 7.3% 6.3% 5.0% 5.2% 17.6% 16.6% 15.6% 15.9% E Operating margin Overhead as a % turnover Note: Group financials are shown on an adjusted basis to include the proportional contribution of the joint ventures and associate and exclude non-underlying items; 2018 figures based on consensus 16 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
18 Continued growth and improving returns Significant improvements made on all KPIs Continuous improvement in build quality, customer satisfaction and health and safety Strategic land bank underpinning future growth Increased scale and operational efficiency improving returns Highly focused strategy delivered by very experienced management team Medium term targets Completions (units) 10%+ p.a. Operating margin 19%+ ROCE 25%+ 17 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
19 Partnerships New Business Rebecca Worthington and Jim Dodd 18 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
20 Experienced management team PARTNERSHIPS SOUTH Graham Cherry Chief Executive Partnerships South 38 years service 38 years experience Andy Fancy MD North and South London 3 years service 27 years experience Mike Woolliscroft MD West London 4 years service 18 years experience Rob Wilkinson MD East London 6 years service 15 years experience Jim Dodd MD New Business 29 years service 29 years experience Andrew Cornelius FD Partnerships South 2 years service 13 years experience PARTNERSHIPS NORTH Ian Kelley Chief Executive Partnerships North 22 years service 40 years experience John Grealis MD Manchester 14 years service 25 years experience Mark Hadfield MD Merseyside 5 months service 21 years experience John Gilbert MD West Midlands 1 years service 21 years experience Gary Belcher MD South Midlands 2 months service 34 years experience Julian Kirk Commercial Director 10 years service 33 years experience Les Brown Regional Director 13 years service 40 years experience 19 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
21 Where Partnerships operates REGIONAL SPLIT FY17 Revenue 51% 49% Completions 39% South 61% North REGIONAL PRIVATE ASP HY18 North 250,000 South 472, CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
22 Outstanding growth and returns COMPLETIONS 1,711 24% CAGR 1,874 2,192 3, E OPERATING MARGIN 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% TARGET 13.9% 16.2% 16.7% 16.8% E OPERATING PROFIT ( m) 42% CAGR RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED 80% TARGET 70% 77.4% 76.4% 72.1% 69.4% 60% % 40% E 30% E Note: Group financials are shown on an adjusted basis to include the proportional contribution of the joint ventures and associate and exclude non-underlying items; 2018 figures based on consensus 21 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
23 All sites performing well ROCE 17% GM = 100m total site revenue 100%+ 80% 60% 40% 50% ROCE 20% Source: Company information 22 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 26%+ Gross margin Partnerships North Partnerships South
24 Partnerships land bank 21,698 plots REGIONAL SPLIT TENURE SPLIT North 42% South 58% PRS 11% Private 57% Affordable 32% PLOTS IN LAND BANK BY SITE SIZE SITE SOURCE 1,500+ units 31% <300 units 30% Estate Regeneration 38% Brownfield 57% 700-1,500 units 13% units 26% Greenfield 5% Note: As at 31 March 2018, excluding Westleigh 23 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
25 Accelerating Partnerships opportunity 9 years of secured work at current volumes CONTROLLED LAND BID PIPELINE Targeting a bid win rate of twice utilisation Significant wins this month and good progress with further wins expected this year 14,914 7,187 17,528 7,350 21,698 4,072 17,626 30,559 35,827 29,495 52,138 39,277 Bid pipeline split 72% South, 28% North 7,727 10,718 25,386 Rapidly increasing opportunities 12,861 Excludes Westleigh 4,891 plots in land bank and 13,000 plots in pipeline HY16 HY17 HY18 Land Bank Preferred Bidder 6,332 5,173 HY16 HY17 HY18 Bids in progress Future bids Note: Excludes 4,891 Westleigh plots 24 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
26 Partnerships procurement Bids smaller and faster to deliver Bids usually larger and more complex Direct Negotiation When used: Housing Associations or private land Development Panels Public sector land with flow of opportunities OJEU Single opportunity public sector land OJEU = Official Journal of the European Union (Public Procurement Process) 25 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
27 Targeted bidding We focus on bids that play to our strengths Positive early engagement helps alignment with partner Creation of communities, requiring significant range of skill sets Structure of deal creating sharing of risk and reward Scoresheets reflecting our strengths and so good chance of winning Typical OJEU bid score sheet: Quality 70% Design and planning 30% Programme and delivery 15% Supply chain 15% Partnership working 10% Engagement 10% Added social value 10% Ability to fund 10% Financial 30% Land premium 70% Sales overage 15% Planning overage 15% 26 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
28 Evolving trends in Partnerships opportunities No real change in bid competition Council participation and asset retention Providing long term revenue streams in lieu of premium Viability achieved through multisite packages Financial support through funding arrangements Residential led town centre regeneration Providing HAs with development solutions 27 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
29 Typical bid timeline creates barrier to entry Selection questionnaire Bid submission Selection of preferred bidder Contract Start on site Information gathering Soft market testing Invitation to tender Bipartite negotiations Planning, S106, vacant possession -24 months -18 months -12 months -9 months -3 months +3 months +12 months +30 months 28 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
30 Partnerships expanding opportunity Continued financial outperformance Excellent visibility of future growth Medium term targets Increasing scale of opportunity Track record gives competitive advantage New geographies drive step change in delivery Completions (units) Operating margin ROCE 10-15%+ p.a. 15%+ 50%+ 29 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
31 PRS, standard house types and modular build Ian Kelley and Les Brown 30 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
32 Benefits of mixed tenure Proven business model Accelerating rate of growth PRS and affordable forward funded Improved site efficiency Sales price growth Greater resilience PRS 31% 362 Partnerships 1,172 Homes Private 41% 482 Affordable 28% 328 Note: As at 31 March 2018; excludes Westleigh 31 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
33 Growth of mixed tenure Private PRS Affordable 3,270 1,711 36% 27% 1,874 27% 39% 2,192 38% 33% 37% 34% 29% E Note: 2018 based on consensus; 2018 includes a 6 month contribution from Westleigh 32 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
34 Economics of PRS Accelerates development Opportunity to double production rates on larger sites Allows us to develop larger sites Increases absorption and pace of place making Optimises supply chain and prelims Improves returns Units are forward sold and paid on monthly valuation Improves asset turn Improves cash flow Increases ROCE Increases resilience Mixed tenure delivery reduces reliance on private sales Resilient earnings underpinned by deal structure Margins set by phase Lower time based costs 33 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
35 Sigma framework agreement Builds on existing relationship with Sigma Over 2,000 PRS homes delivered to date Framework agreement targeting further 5,000 homes over 3 years Supports continued expansion of our Partnerships model particularly into newer regions Supports continued expansion of our Partnerships model on larger sites Allows us to deliver homes quicker and provide greater future resilience Hamilton Square, Atherton 34 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
36 Sigma PRS active and future sites Continuous market demand for a range of products Active Future Pipeline of opportunities Successful formula easily transferred to Westleigh geography Average site size of c. 120 units, with 40% PRS on site Move to larger mixed tenure sites MERSEYSIDE FLINTSHIRE CHESHIRE GREATER MANCHESTER STAFFORDSHIRE SHROPSHIRE WEST MIDLANDS 35 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
37 Standard house types introduction Ellesmere, 855 sq ft, 3 bed semi/terrace Ashop, 1075 sq ft, 3 bed detached Stamford, 900 sq ft, 3 bed semi Glasson, 1,380 sq ft, 4 bed detached 36 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
38 100% use of standard house types House type Sq ft OM Affordable PRS Irwell 662 Colne 710 Grantham 850 Weaver 850 Ellesmere 855 Longford 893 Stour 913 Longmere 919 Ashwell 952 Ashbourne 991 New Stamford 1,005 Walton 1,022 Dee 1,062 Ashop 1,075 New Calder 1,094 Dunham 1,199 Lymington 1,215 Baybridge 1,258 Tamar 1,292 Oakham 1,317 Glasson 1,396 PRS 1 Bed Apt 511 PRS 2 Bed Apt 613 Affordable 2 Bed 829 Affordable 3 Bed 971 Affordable 4 Bed 1, standard house types used across Partnerships North 80% of dwellings for sale utilise the eight most popular house types Crossover with PRS and affordable product Different elevations for local markets Plans to extend these to Westleigh geography 37 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
39 Improved productivity from modular People Health and safety Efficiency of site management Reduced site labour Quality Factory conditions, controlled environment Proven manufacturing process with automation Quality assurance of product before delivery to site Cost and Environmental Reduced waste Reduced vehicle movements Increased ROCE Efficiency Faster build times (10 weeks) Allows management to spend more time focused on other opportunities 38 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
40 39 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
41 Modular housing factory, Warrington 40 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
42 Modular Housing factory floor plan Optimising stud saw Optimising panel saw Materials storage - studs Materials storage - panels Raw material deliveries Raw material deliveries Sub frame assembly area Line 1 Line 3 window installation window installation Line 2 Panel wrapping area Raw material deliveries Completed panels out Completed panels out Staff areas Materials storage windows, VCL etc Completed panel storage Training & Offices 41 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
43 Modular build exploded panel KEY: mm facing brick 2. 50mm external cavity 3. 9mm OSB & TF200 thermo breather paper 4. 38xx89mm C16 top rail 5. 38x140mm C16 timber stud mm Hybris insulation 7. Vapour control layer 8. VCL clip creating 35mm service zone 9. 35mm service zone / for services installation on the site mm plasterboard 11. Cables for sockets / switches 12. Electrical socket 42 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
44 Production costs reduced and wider benefits Investment to secure supply chain and savings on site Small reduction in cost per panel from in-sourcing but not about cost Payback expected in 2-3 years Provides savings on prelims per plot FY19 production of 500 units utilising six different house types and for six different sites 43 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
45 Westleigh Mike Scott and Matt Moore 44 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
46 Rationale for the Westleigh deal Step change in Partnership growth, delivering 1,200 homes p.a. Significant regional expansion in complementary geographies Resilient business; 92% affordable, with scope to grow mix of tenures Strong cultural fit Skilled labour force with low turnover Own timber frame factory producing 1,200 units p.a. EPS accretive from day one 45 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
47 Westleigh complementary to existing geography COUNTRYSIDE PRE WESTLEIGH COMBINED GROUP Merseyside Manchester Housebuilding Westleigh Westleigh Westleigh Yorkshire East Midlands South Midlands Partnerships South West Midlands 46 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
48 Economics of the deal Enterprise value of up to million on debt and cash-free basis Financed wholly from existing facilities Includes a deferred earn-out of c million 6.5x EBITDA multiple based on first year of operation Deal completed based on 30 November 2017 balance sheet with profit adjustment to 12 April 2018 Partnerships model is asset light creates intangible assets Delivering*: 1,159 homes of which 92% affordable Revenue of 150.6m Operating profit of 15.6m Gross assets of 76.1m * Unaudited for the year ended 31 March CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
49 Investing in growth Business case not dependent on synergies Some synergies will be delivered Buying gains through increased size Modest central services savings over time Increasing investment Grow headcount to underpin growth Increase capacity of offices Future investment in upgrading Westframe Westleigh brand retained, but phased out over time 48 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
50 Accelerates growth of Partnerships division Partnerships c.78% of completions and c.54% of operating profit by 2019 COMPLETIONS OPERATING PROFIT Partnerships Housebuilding 78% Partnerships Housebuilding 54% 51% 70% 46% 65% ,192 1, F 2019F F 2019F Note: 2018 and 2019 based on company information 49 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
51 Good cultural fit with Countryside 25 years of building relationships Over 80 LA and RP partners Key relationships providing 75% of output Strong focus on developing our people Investors in People Gold 58 apprentices in the business 50 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
52 Land bank by status and timeline Four years supply of controlled land Significant bid pipeline Sites sourced directly with partner; little tender activity Over 70% of pipeline with largest regional RP partners Over 10 years supply in the pipeline Opportunity for larger mixed tenure development CONTROLLED LAND 4,891 BID PIPELINE 14,500 9,300 5,200 Land Bank Preferred Bidder Bids in progress Future bids Note: As at 31 March CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
53 Existing sites and future pipeline map East Midlands focus, around Leicester Head Office Active Future Office New, larger offices in Leamington and Sheffield Growth into South Midlands and South Yorkshire NORTH YORKSHIRE SOUTH YORKSHIRE Significant opportunities with existing Westleigh and Countryside partners DERBYSHIRE NOTTINGHAM- SHIRE LINCOLNSHIRE STAFFORDSHIRE RUTLAND WEST MIDLANDS LEICESTERSHIRE CAMBRIDGESHIRE WORCESTER- SHIRE WARWICKSHIRE NORTHAMPTON- SHIRE 52 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
54 Evolution of tenure mix Current tenure mix is 92% affordable Acquisition increases opportunities for private and PRS delivery Change in tenure mix brings margin expansion UNITS BY TENURE Private Affordable PRS Ability to leverage relationship with Sigma for PRS 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Note: Based on company information 53 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
55 Westframe factory, Leicester Westframe formed in ,000 sq. ft. production facility Supplies all Westleigh output 46 employees in two shifts 54 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
56 Wrap up and Close Ian Sutcliffe 55 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
57 Key takeaways Strategy is working and delivering ahead of IPO expectations Both divisions growing in scale and performing well: Housebuilding has been repositioned and is delivering results Partnerships continues to outperform with increased opportunity Strength and breadth of management in both divisions Consistent with maintaining our strong focus on quality Differentiated business model providing growth and resilience 56 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
58 Group Partnerships Housebuilding Delivering our performance commitment 2018 IPO target Consensus 2018 Medium term plan Completions Completions (units) 1,200+ 1,297 10%+ p.a. Operating margin 18%+ 17.8% 19%+ ROCE 20%+ 22.0% 25%+ Completions Completions (units) 2,400+ 3, %+ p.a. Operating margin 15% ROCE 50%+ 16.8% 73.8% 15%+ 50%+ Completions (units) 3,600+ 4, %+ p.a. Operating margin 17%+ 16.7% 17%+ ROCE 28%+ 32.2% 35%+ Note: Group financials are shown on an adjusted basis to include the proportional contribution of the joint ventures and associate and exclude non-underlying items; 2018 figures based on consensus 57 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
59 Questions? 58 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
60 Investor Contact Victoria Prior Investor Relations & Strategy Director Tel: CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
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