SINA Corporation (L) Lower Weibo value, target price on revised methodology; still Neutral COMPANY UPDATE. Neutral. Equity Research.

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "SINA Corporation (L) Lower Weibo value, target price on revised methodology; still Neutral COMPANY UPDATE. Neutral. Equity Research."

Transcription

1 COMPANY UPDATE Neutral Equity Research Lower Weibo value, target price on revised methodology; still Neutral What's changed Following Weibo s recent monetization effort amid a challenging online advertising environment, we are lowering our 12-month SOTP-based TP to US$64 from US$70 on a lower/higher valuation for Weibo/portal. We are also cutting 2012E-14E EPS by 43%/18%/15% on weaker revenues and tighter margins, including higher Weibo costs. Maintain Neutral. Implications 1. Sina organized a Weibo marketing event focused on enterprise accounts in Xiamen on April Sina released an upgraded Enterprise Weibo 2.0 in mid-april offering more customization and data analytics, with potential monetization via display ads, sponsored events/apps, and analytical tools. 2. We believe advertiser take-up of Enterprise Weibo is conditional upon volume/quality of user traffic generated through these accounts in turn dependent on level of resources invested to manage such owned media. Activating this ecosystem to drive social commerce is key to monetization, in our view. Our discussions with agencies yielded mixed feedback. 3. Sina has rolled out Weibo display ads mainly targeted at large (existing Sina) advertisers for 2Q12, which we think could be bundled into portal display ad revenues and offer limited revenue boost initially. Targeted ads for SMEs planned for 2H12 could require even more time to ramp, given the novelty of the ad formats and a less prepared advertiser pool. Valuation Despite an expected 2H ad recovery, rising Weibo-related costs weigh on Sina s profitability. We believe upside to Sina s valuation is increasingly dependent on its Weibo monetization strategy; Weibo is 23% of our SOTPbased TP for Sina (we now value portal at 15X 2012E ex-sbc NOPAT). Key risks Downside: Social media regulations; weaker-than-expected 2H12 ad growth recovery. Upside: better Weibo monetization; cost control. INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Neutral Investment Profile Low Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th Asia Pacific Media and Entertainment Peer Group Average High Growth Returns * Multiple Volatility * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document. Key data Current Price ($) month price target ($) Market cap ($ mn / US$ mn) 3,643.2 / 3,643.2 Foreign ownership (%) -- 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E EPS ($) New EPS revision (%) 0.0 (43.2) (17.5) (15.3) EPS growth (%) (46.8) (62.9) EPS (dil) ($) New (4.64) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) (26.3) CROCI (%) Price performance chart May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 SINA Corporation (L) NASDAQ Composite (R) 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute (16.2) (36.6) (56.0) Rel. to NASDAQ Composite (17.0) (41.4) (57.8) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 5/08/2012 close. Coverage View: Neutral Catherine Leung Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies catherine.leung@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Fei Fang fei.fang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research

2 SINA Corporation: Summary Financials Profit model ($ mn) 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Balance sheet ($ mn) 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Total revenue Cash & equivalents Cost of goods sold (208.7) (265.6) (317.5) (367.6) Accounts receivable SG&A (180.3) (189.9) (194.5) (211.7) Inventory R&D (59.4) (91.5) (113.9) (127.8) Other current assets Other operating profit/(expense) (0.7) Total current assets ,151.1 EBITDA Net PP&E Depreciation & amortization (21.7) (40.6) (50.9) (60.4) Net intangibles EBIT 33.8 (2.9) Total investments Interest income Other long-term assets Interest expense Total assets 1, , , ,719.0 Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. (280.1) Others (67.9) Accounts payable Pretax profits Short-term debt Income tax (5.0) (7.3) (4.5) (9.3) Other current liabilities Minorities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Net income pre-preferred dividends Other long-term liabilities Preferred dividends Total long-term liabilities Net income (pre-exceptionals) Total liabilities Post-tax exceptionals (363.7) 61.6 (28.1) (30.9) Net income (302.1) Preferred shares Total common equity 1, , , ,361.4 EPS (basic, pre-except) ($) Minority interest EPS (basic, post-except) ($) (4.64) EPS (diluted, post-except) ($) (4.64) Total liabilities & equity 1, , , ,719.0 DPS ($) Dividend payout ratio (%) BVPS ($) Free cash flow yield (%) Growth & margins (%) 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Ratios 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Sales growth CROCI (%) EBITDA growth (50.0) (32.2) ROE (%) (26.3) EBIT growth (64.0) (108.7) NM ROA (%) (20.0) Net income growth NM (44.3) 88.1 ROACE (%) EPS growth (1,387.3) (44.8) 86.2 Inventory days NM NM NM NM Gross margin Receivables days EBITDA margin Payable days EBIT margin 7.0 (0.5) Net debt/equity (%) (63.4) (64.0) (64.7) (68.3) Interest cover - EBIT (X) NM 0.2 NM NM Cash flow statement ($ mn) 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Valuation 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E Net income pre-preferred dividends D&A add-back P/E (analyst) (X) Minorities interests add-back (0.3) (1.1) (1.1) 0.0 P/B (X) Net (inc)/dec working capital (19.7) (3.9) (26.7) (29.8) EV/EBITDA (X) Other operating cash flow EV/GCI (X) Cash flow from operations Dividend yield (%) Capital expenditures (54.9) (59.9) (52.9) (43.6) Acquisitions Divestitures Others (163.3) Cash flow from investments (218.2) (59.9) (52.9) (43.6) Dividends paid (common & pref) Inc/(dec) in debt Common stock issuance (repurchase) Other financing cash flows Cash flow from financing Total cash flow (209.4) Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Analyst Contributors Catherine Leung catherine.leung@gs.com Fei Fang fei.fang@gs.com Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2

3 Weibo marketing update: Focus on enterprise pages Focus on enterprise accounts Sina organized a Weibo marketing forum on April in Xiamen. At the event, Sina announced the official launch of Weibo s advertising platform, with particular focus on Weibo enterprise accounts, including the release of version 2.0 and an enterprise application open platform. Since April, when Weibo officially began offering paid advertising solutions, nearly 100 companies have purchased ad inventory on Weibo. Over 130,000 enterprise accounts have been created on Weibo. Enterprise accounts version 2.0 released in April Sina released the upgraded version 2.0 of enterprise accounts in mid-april, concurrently with the official start of monetization. The new version aims to provide a richer interface and more analytical tools to enterprise users, to encourage them to create more engaging content and drive more traffic through these pages. Highlighted features of the new version include the following: New enterprise page interface. The new interface shows key social metrics on the landing page: 1) net number of fans acquired in the previous day; 2) active fans as a percentage of total fans; and 3) exposure index, or visit frequency of the enterprise account. Content analysis. An analytical tool that tracks the popularity of content types, including text, video, music, votes, etc. Hyperlink analysis. An analytical tool that tracks the frequency of user-embedded links being clicked, forwarded, and commented on by other Weibo users. Fan behavioral analysis. More data provided about the enterprise s Weibo fan base, including activity rate by day/hour, and device usage (mobile or PC). Account analysis. Traffic statistics to the enterprise Weibo page, such as unique visitors, page views, user time spent, etc. Open API. Enterprise-specific apps developed by both Sina and third-party developers are available through the open platform, such as coupon management and customer service. Exhibit 1: Sina Weibo enterprise account version 2.0 data analytics overview Data center Marketing analysis Fans analysis Page analysis Enterprise Weibo index Weibo interaction Statistical managemen t Hyperlink analysis Quality of fans Traits of fans Habits / behavior Page traffic Visitor analysis Net adds of fans # of posts # of selfcreated posts Number of fans Gender Active hours Page views New visitors Percentage of active fans # forwarded # of forwards Quality of fans Age Active days Unique visitors Repeat visitors Weibo exposure index # commented # of comments Tag Terminal technology Average user time spent Weibo exposure index Private messages Location Source: Compiled by Goldman Sachs Research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3

4 Quality of enterprise pages can vary widely The value that companies derive from Sina Weibo enterprise pages depends on how much resources they devote to engaging users, by managing both the content on the enterprise pages as well as on microblog posts. Management can involve both nonpaid owned media (e.g., conversation-provoking posts) and paid media (e.g., premium placement of posts). On the nonpaid side, companies can opt to manage their enterprise accounts in-house, or outsource to advertising agencies (typically PR departments) or other third-party consulting firms; Sina does not currently provide owned media management. Sina can provide paid solutions to supplement owned media. The creation of a virtuous cycle whereby companies generating value through their enterprise pages are likely to continuously invest more resources in improving the quality of these pages, which in turn should attract more user traffic is important to the success of the Weibo enterprise pages, in our view. Sina provided some examples of companies they believe are successfully operating enterprise pages, such as Wrigley s, e-tailer Mougujie, and auto dealerships. While we view these case studies as incrementally encouraging, our conversations with advertising agencies suggest successes represent the minority and advertiser uptake has been slow. This could be partially explained by some agencies yet to recommend their advertiser clients to upgrade to the new version 2.0, as they observe the progress and gather feedback from their peers, before expending resources. Monetization: Social commerce could require stronger social connections We believe the key factors along which companies are likely to evaluate the value of enterprise pages are reach, relevancy and engagement which together will determine the monetization potential of enterprise pages, whether through advertising or other value-added services such as applications or data analysis. Reach refers to the amount of user traffic driven by the enterprise account. Relevancy refers to the quality of users, which for example for e-commerce companies could be measured by conversion rates from visitors to purchasers. Engagement refers to the ability of the brand to establish a dialogue with potential customers, and could include less quantifiable factors such as brand image perception. Weibo enterprise pages appear mainly targeted at e-commerce companies or companies with online platforms that enable tracking of eventual transactions (for example, a bank that can track the number of sign-ups for credit cards). Within this social commerce context leveraging the ability of friends to influence each other in stimulating shopping interest and purchasing decisions we believe Weibo s incomplete evolution into a fullfledged social network could hinder the platform s ability to realize social commerce. We continue to believe the ability of Weibo to strengthen social connections beyond serving primarily as a social media platform should be important to improve its effectiveness for advertisers, based on the factors above. Advertiser education could take time Sina continues to pursue advertising on two tracks: Display ads. Weibo has rolled out display advertising inventory for 2Q12, mainly targeting large branded advertisers (many of them already advertisers on Sina s portal, which enables cross-selling or bundling opportunities). Please see our April 16, 2012 note, Publication of Weibo 2Q12 ad rates marks official monetization start. Targeted ads, through a self-serve advertising platform to be released in 2H12 and which will target more small-medium advertisers. Despite being self-serve, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4

5 advertisers will require some handholding, in our view, considering the novelty of Weibo s advertising formats. While display ads are a familiar format, targeted ads (particularly on social platforms) are less so within China s online advertising industry. This results from a combination of issues: previously low penetration rates of online advertising budgets plus rapid growth of the internet population directing online budgets to chasing reach rather than efficiency; a dearth of sophisticated paid social advertising solutions available in the market, for example with China s largest social network Tencent only recently more aggressively promoting its targeted advertising system; and lack of a reliable measurement standard. Moreover, Sina Weibo s advertising formats are relatively new (even compared to Tencent s targeted advertising system, which appeal to performance-based advertising budgets and a more ready pool of potential advertisers, such as its open platform thirdparty app developers). We expect Sina to rely on third-parties, including advertising agencies and consulting firms revenue ramp could be slow given that the education process will take time. 20-F disclosures Sina filed its 20-F on April 27, with new information disclosed. Impact of CRIC privatization. CRIC was privatized by its majority shareholder E- House on April 20; CRIC shareholders will receive 0.6 E-House shares plus cash consideration of US$1.75 for every CRIC share; Sina s prior 34% stake in CRIC will thus translate into a 24.9% stake in E-House. We expect Sina to account for its E- House stake under the equity method (similar to CRIC, with one quarter in arrears) starting from 3Q12. Based on Bloomberg consensus, E-House is expected to generate a non-gaap net profit of US$46.8mn in 2012E and US$68.6mn. Sina stated in the 20-F that its earnings from equity investments may decline as a result. Weibo shareholding. Sina s subsidiary T.CN has granted options equivalent to another 1.1% of shares (fully diluted) in 2011, bringing total options equivalent to about 17.0% of T.CN. The fair value options at grant date were US$1.0mn and US$4.2mn, respectively. Valuation Weibo valuation lowered to US$1.0bn We are lowering our Weibo valuation to US$1.0bn from US$3.2bn in our SOTP valuation. Our Weibo valuation comprises 23% of our Sina total valuation of US$4.3bn. We revise our valuation methodology from previously using probability weighting valuations for base-case and bull-case scenarios based on Sina being primarily a social media-plus platform versus evolving into a full-fledged social network. Our previous base-case valued Weibo at US$2.4bn and our bull-case valued it at US$5.4bn. We had assumed 75%/25% probability weightings. We change our valuation methodology as we believe Weibo can now be evaluated based on its financial performance, following rapid user growth over the past two years and given the official start of monetization in 2Q12. We now value Weibo on a DCF valuation, based on 15.5% discount rate and terminal growth of 8% using 2020E as the terminal year. We have not applied a Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5

6 discount to the DCF valuation despite the inherent unpredictability of the profitability path, as Weibo is in early stages of monetization, even though comparable companies trade at substantial discounts to their DCF values (see Exhibit 2). We compile our comparables companies list based on these criteria, considering there is no listed similar business model as Weibo: less proven revenue/profit generation but rapid growth in a social platform s user base. We assume Weibo will primarily generate revenues through advertising rather than user fees (for apps). We forecast Weibo advertising revenues of US$8.3mn in 2012E and US$44.6mn in 2013E, which are effectively unchanged. For reference, we estimate that Tencent will generate revenues of Rmb37.4mn (US$5.9mn) in 2012E and Rmb232.2mn (US$36.9mn) in 2013E from its targeted advertising platform, which the company began more heavily promoting earlier this year. Assuming about 30% of Sina Weibo and Tencent s registered user bases are active on a monthly basis, this equates to Rmb0.05 revenue per monthly active user for Sina and Rmb0.01 for Tencent in 2012E. Although we assume similar activity rates, we believe that user engagement could be an equally, if not more, important metric. In our April 21, 2011 report, Weibo social network potential priced in; downgrade to Sell, we discuss the monetization implications between a social media platform (such as Sina Weibo) versus a social network (Tencent). We can rationalize higher revenue per user for Sina based on its portal brand influence and cross-selling opportunities. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6

7 Exhibit 2: Sina Weibo DCF valuation at US$1.0bn or US$15.0 per share Weibo DCF Analysis 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Advertising revenues % yoy growth NA 436% 110% 77% 56% 37% 31% 31% 31% No. advertisers % yoy growth NA 215% 40% 18% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% as % of Sina's total 10% 30% 40% 45% 48% 51% 54% 57% 60% Average spend per advertiser (US$ mn) % yoy growth NA 70% 50% 50% 42% 30% 25% 25% 25% as % of overall average 20% 30% 42% 58% NA NA NA NA NA Applications revenues, net Weibo registered users % yoy growth 55% 10% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% % buying apps 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Price per app (Rmb) Gross apps revenue Sina's revenue share 0% 20% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Total Weibo revenues Bandwidth costs % yoy growth 58% 40% 20% 20% 18% 16% 15% 15% 15% Other cost of revenues - server/network eqpt depreciation Total cost of revenues Gross profit (38.1) (24.7) Gross margin NM NM 9.8% 38.4% 53.0% 60.1% 65.0% 69.3% 73.1% Total Weibo expenses % yoy change 47% 19% 9% 15% 13% 11% 11% 11% 11% Operating profit (155.3) (149.8) (118.4) (78.0) (16.5) Operating margin NM NM NM NM NM 13.4% 26.9% 38.2% 47.8% NOPAT (155.3) (149.8) (118.4) (78.0) (16.5) Depreciation and amortization Gross cash flow (142.7) (138.5) (108.2) (68.8) (8.2) Capex (42.0) (37.8) (34.0) (30.6) (27.6) (24.8) (22.3) (20.1) (18.1) % yoy change 20% -10% -10% -10% -10% -10% -10% -10% -10% Free cash flow (184.7) (176.3) (142.2) (99.4) (35.8) Terminal value 4,645.0 Total free cash flow (184.7) (176.3) (142.2) (99.4) (35.8) ,967.5 WACC calculation DCF summary results Equity component Valuation (US$ mn) 1,006 Equity market premium 6.5% Value per share (US$) Risk free rate 4.5% Beta 2.0 Cost of equity 15.5% Debt component Cost of debt 6.5% Tax rate 25.0% After-tax cost of debt 4.9% Long-run debt-to-capital ratio 0.0% WACC 15.5% Terminal growth rate 8.0% Exit FCF multiple 13 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Sina portal valuation increased to US$2.4bn from removing Weibo costs We are raising our portal valuation to US$2.4bn from US$0.6bn in our SOTP valuation. Our portal valuation comprises 56% of our Sina total valuation of US$4.3bn. The higher valuation is primarily due to removal of Weibo costs, as we now separately value Weibo based on its financial forecasts. We now apply a target 15X to the portal s 2012E ex-sbc NOPAT of US$162mn, lowered from 25X previously because we had previously assigned a substantial valuation premium to its investments in Weibo, which we believe also benefited the portal s performance though depressing profits. Our portal profit estimate now excludes Weiborelated costs of US$164mn, although we recognize there could be some shared costs. We base our target multiple on 1.25X PEG, off 12% earnings CAGR in 2012E-2015E, assuming that portal revenues grow at a CAGR of about 13%, mainly driven by pricing increases and incrementally better monetization of less-prime inventory as advertising budgets Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7

8 continue to shift online, but offset by gradually falling margins due to more costly and bandwidth-intensive content, as well as higher tax rates. We had previously estimated a NOPAT CAGR of 17%. Lowering target price to US$64 from US$70 As shown by Exhibit 3, our revised 12-month SOTP-based target price of US$64, down from US$70, incorporates a lower valuation for Weibo (US$1.0 bn, down from US$3.2bn) but a higher valuation for Sina s portal (US$2.4bn, up from US$0.6bn). Exhibit 3: Sina sum-of-parts valuation yields a US$64 target price 2012E pre- NOPAT SBC NOPAT per share (US$mn) (US$) Multiple (X) Value (US$ mn) Value GS comments (US$/share) Advertising , X PEG off 12% E advertising pre-sbc NOPAT CAGR MVAS Other operations E-House stake % holding company discount on market value of E-House Net cash % discount to 2012E net cash (including ST investments) Sina Weibo (155.3) 1, Total , Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Sensitivity analysis Recognizing the difficulty of forecasting revenues given that Weibo is in the early stages of monetization, we also provide a sensitivity analysis. Bull case: Our bull case assumes Sina Weibo can double 2013E revenues to US$89mn (relative to our base case of US$45mn), with an accelerated CAGR of 90% in 2013E-2016E (relative to our base case CAGR of 80%). Assuming Weibo turns profitable in 2015E with a 34% operating margin and that its operating margin stabilizes at 45% in the long term, our DCF valuation would increase to US$3.4bn or US$50 per share. This would result in a SOTP-based implied value for Sina of US$100, US$36 higher than our target price. Bear case: Our bear case assumes Sina Weibo generates only half of our 2013E revenues, or US$23mn (relative to our base case of US$45mn), with a decelerated CAGR of 70% in 2013E-2016E (relative to our base case CAGR of 80%). Assuming the company shrinks its cost structure in this circumstance to turn Weibo profitable in 2015E and improve operating margins to 30% by 2020E, our DCF valuation would decrease to US$100mn or US$1.5 per share. This would result in a SOTP-based implied value for Sina of US$50, US$14 lower than our target price. Although our bull-bear case scenarios suggest more upside rather than downside from our target price, we note this analysis does not fully take into account the probability of either scenario. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8

9 Disclosure Appendix Reg AC I, Catherine Leung, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment Profile The Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investment context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentile ranking within the region's coverage universe. The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility adjusted for dividends. Quantum Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. GS SUSTAIN GS SUSTAIN is a global investment strategy aimed at long-term, long-only performance with a low turnover of ideas. The GS SUSTAIN focus list includes leaders our analysis shows to be well positioned to deliver long term outperformance through sustained competitive advantage and superior returns on capital relative to their global industry peers. Leaders are identified based on quantifiable analysis of three aspects of corporate performance: cash return on cash invested, industry positioning and management quality (the effectiveness of companies' management of the environmental, social and governance issues facing their industry). Disclosures Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s) Catherine Leung: Asia Pacific Media. Asia Pacific Media: Ambow Education Holding Ltd., Baidu.com, Inc., Changyou.com, Ctrip.com International, Dangdang, Daum Communications, Dish TV India, Focus Media, NCsoft, New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (ADR), NHN, S.M.Entertainment, Shanda Games Limited, SINA Corporation, Sohu.com, SouFun Holdings Limited, Sun TV Network, Television Broadcasts, Tencent Holdings, Vipshop Holdings Limited, Xueda Education Group, Youku.com Inc., Zee Entertainment Enterprises. Company-specific regulatory disclosures The following disclosures relate to relationships between The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research. Goldman Sachs beneficially owned 1% or more of common equity (excluding positions managed by affiliates and business units not required to be aggregated under US securities law) as of the second most recent month end: SINA Corporation ($55.08) Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: SINA Corporation ($55.08) Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: SINA Corporation ($55.08) Goldman Sachs has received compensation for non-investment banking services during the past 12 months: SINA Corporation ($55.08) Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: SINA Corporation ($55.08) Goldman Sachs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: SINA Corporation ($55.08) Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 9

10 Goldman Sachs had a non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with: SINA Corporation ($55.08) Goldman Sachs makes a market in the securities or derivatives thereof: SINA Corporation ($55.08) Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships Goldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Sell Global 31% 54% 15% 48% 41% 36% As of April 1, 2012, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,507 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below. Price target and rating history chart(s) Stock Price Currency : U.S. Dollar Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history ,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Stock Price 0 1,500 Jun 24 B N M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research for ratings and price targets; FactSet closing prices as of 3/31/2012. Rating Feb 16, 2011 to N from B Covered by Catherine Leung, Apr 20, 2011 to S from N Price target as of Nov 17, 2010 Index Price Price target at removal Not covered by current analyst NASDAQ Composite The price targets show n should be considered in the context of all prior published Goldman Sachs research, w hich may or may not have included price targets, as w ell as developments relating to the company, its industry and financial markets. Regulatory disclosures Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/comanaged public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs usually makes a market in fixed income securities of issuers discussed in this report and usually deals as a principal in these securities. The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Goldman, Sachs & Co. and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711/NYSE Rules 472 restrictions on communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts. Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the Goldman Sachs website at Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd and its affiliates are not authorised deposit-taking institutions (as that term is defined in the Banking Act 1959 (Cth)) in Australia and do not provide banking services, nor carry on a banking business, in Australia. This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act, unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. Brazil: Disclosure information in relation to CVM Instruction 483 is available at Where applicable, the Brazil-registered analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, as defined in Article 16 of CVM Instruction 483, is the first author named at the beginning of this report, unless indicated otherwise at the end of the text. Canada: Goldman, Sachs & Co. has approved of, and agreed to take responsibility for, this research in Canada if and to the extent it relates to equity securities of Canadian issuers. Analysts may conduct site visits but are prohibited from accepting payment or reimbursement by the company of travel expenses for such visits. Hong Kong: Further information on the securities of covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained on request from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. India: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited; Japan: See below. Korea: Further information on the subject company or companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch. New Zealand: Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited and its affiliates are neither "registered banks" nor "deposit takers" (as defined in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989) in New Zealand. This research, and any access to it, is intended for "wholesale clients" (as defined in the Financial Advisers Act 2008) unless otherwise agreed by Goldman Sachs. Russia: Research reports distributed in the Russian Federation are not advertising as defined in the Russian legislation, but are information and analysis not having product promotion as their main purpose and do not provide appraisal within the meaning of the Russian legislation on appraisal activity. Singapore: Further information on the covered companies referred to in this research may be obtained from Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: W). Taiwan: This material is for reference only and must not be reprinted without permission. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as retail clients in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 10

11 Services Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Goldman Sachs research on the covered companies referred to herein and should refer to the risk warnings that have been sent to them by Goldman Sachs International. A copy of these risks warnings, and a glossary of certain financial terms used in this report, are available from Goldman Sachs International on request. European Union: Disclosure information in relation to Article 4 (1) (d) and Article 6 (2) of the European Commission Directive 2003/126/EC is available at which states the European Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Connection with Investment Research. Japan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer under the Financial Instrument and Exchange Law, registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau (Registration No. 69), and is a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) and Financial Futures Association of Japan (FFAJ). Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption tax. See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitions Buy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional Investment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists represent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return. Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target and associated time horizon are stated in each report adding or reiterating an Investment List membership. Coverage groups and views: A list of all stocks in each coverage group is available by primary analyst, stock and coverage group at The analyst assigns one of the following coverage views which represents the analyst's investment outlook on the coverage group relative to the group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Attractive (A). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is favorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Neutral (N). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is neutral relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Cautious (C). The investment outlook over the following 12 months is unfavorable relative to the coverage group's historical fundamentals and/or valuation. Not Rated (NR). The investment rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Goldman Sachs policy when Goldman Sachs is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances. Rating Suspended (RS). Goldman Sachs Research has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, because there is not a sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. Coverage Suspended (CS). Goldman Sachs has suspended coverage of this company. Not Covered (NC). Goldman Sachs does not cover this company. Not Available or Not Applicable (NA). The information is not available for display or is not applicable. Not Meaningful (NM). The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. Global product; distributing entities The Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs produces and distributes research products for clients of Goldman Sachs on a global basis. Analysts based in Goldman Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN ); in Brazil by Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.; in Canada by Goldman, Sachs & Co. regarding Canadian equities and by Goldman, Sachs & Co. (all other research); in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. European Union: Goldman Sachs International, authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom; Goldman Sachs AG, regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also distribute research in Germany. General disclosures This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Other than certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. Goldman Sachs conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, and brokerage business. We have investment banking and other business relationships with a substantial percentage of the companies covered by our Global Investment Research Division. Goldman, Sachs & Co., the United States broker dealer, is a member of SIPC ( Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, our proprietary trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research. The analysts named in this report may have from time to time discussed with our clients, including Goldman Sachs salespersons and traders, or may discuss in this report, trading strategies that reference catalysts or events that may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed in this report, which impact may be directionally counter to the analysts' published price target expectations for such stocks. Any such trading strategies are distinct from and do not affect the analysts' fundamental equity rating for such stocks, which rating reflects a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding equity and credit analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11

12 individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Fluctuations in exchange rates could have adverse effects on the value or price of, or income derived from, certain investments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should review current options disclosure documents which are available from Goldman Sachs sales representatives or at Transaction costs may be significant in option strategies calling for multiple purchase and sales of options such as spreads. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request. In producing research reports, members of the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs Australia may attend site visits and other meetings hosted by the issuers the subject of its research reports. In some instances the costs of such site visits or meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers concerned if Goldman Sachs Australia considers it is appropriate and reasonable in the specific circumstances relating to the site visit or meeting. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client websites. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or available to third-party aggregators, nor is Goldman Sachs responsible for the redistribution of our research by third party aggregators. For all research available on a particular stock, please contact your sales representative or go to Disclosure information is also available at or from Research Compliance, 200 West Street, New York, NY Goldman Sachs. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 12

Potential asset restructuring of Sinopharm subsidiary

Potential asset restructuring of Sinopharm subsidiary COMMENT Estimates Unchanged Potential asset restructuring of Sinopharm subsidiary Equity Research News On December 27, Sinopharm (1099.HK, Neutral), Shanghai Shyndec Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (Shyndec Pharma,

More information

Lenovo announces agreement to acquire IBM s x86 server business

Lenovo announces agreement to acquire IBM s x86 server business COMMENT Equity Research Lenovo announces agreement to acquire IBM s x86 server business News Lenovo announced it had reached agreement with IBM to acquire IBM s x86 server hardware and related maintenance

More information

Hong Kong Banks: Rising funding divergence as rates rise

Hong Kong Banks: Rising funding divergence as rates rise 5 January 2017 : Rising funding divergence as rates rise Bank deposit campaigns are back in Hong Kong taking a cue from the rising HIBOR. HIBOR has now caught up with LIBOR despite the HKD being strong

More information

Apr premium: Still weak life FYP; P&C slightly below expectation

Apr premium: Still weak life FYP; P&C slightly below expectation Equity Research Apr premium: Still weak life FYP; P&C slightly below expectation Ping An/Taiping 4M premium: Life FYP growth remained weak; P&C premium below our expectation Ping An and Taiping have reported

More information

1H11 earnings to triple yoy; we expect further re-rating. Buy

1H11 earnings to triple yoy; we expect further re-rating. Buy COMMENT 1H11 earnings to triple yoy; we expect further re-rating. Buy News CNBM announced that 1H11 net income will rise by at least 200% yoy as a combined result of higher cement ASPs and sales volume.

More information

Slower-than-expected sales growth; stabilizing margins; Neutral

Slower-than-expected sales growth; stabilizing margins; Neutral COMPANY UPDATE Neutral Equity Research Slower-than-expected sales growth; stabilizing margins; Neutral What's changed We recently spoke to Dahua management and key industrial player, Hikvision. Highlights

More information

In line with expectations; steady NT growth, financing LT capacity

In line with expectations; steady NT growth, financing LT capacity EARNINGS REVIEW Siasun Robot&Automation Co., Ltd Neutral Equity Research In line with expectations; steady NT growth, financing LT capacity What surprised us Siasun Robot & Automation reported 1H15 earnings

More information

Buy. Coolpad Group Ltd (L) Coolpad and JD.com make strategic cooperation agreement; CL-Buy ACTION. Return Potential: 23% Equity Research

Buy. Coolpad Group Ltd (L) Coolpad and JD.com make strategic cooperation agreement; CL-Buy ACTION. Return Potential: 23% Equity Research ACTION Buy Return Potential: 23% Equity Research Coolpad and JD.com make strategic cooperation agreement; CL-Buy Source of opportunity According to Phoenix Tech (March 11), Coolpad and JD.com, the largest

More information

Enel details synergies with Endesa potential upside to estimates

Enel details synergies with Endesa potential upside to estimates December 12, 2007 COMMENT Enel SpA (ENEI.MI) 8.35 Enel details synergies with Endesa potential upside to estimates News Enel held a presentation in London today (December 12) detailing the synergies they

More information

In line with expectations: Still waiting for a margin recovery

In line with expectations: Still waiting for a margin recovery EARNINGS REVIEW Buy In line with expectations: Still waiting for a margin recovery What surprised us ZTE reported 1H12 revenue/gpm/opm/net income of Rmb42.6bn/24.6%/ 2.9%/Rmb245mn, vs. our estimates of

More information

In line with expectations; peak MUs delivery in 2014E; Neutral

In line with expectations; peak MUs delivery in 2014E; Neutral EARNINGS REVIEW Neutral In line with expectations; peak MUs delivery in 2014E; Neutral What surprised us CSR Corporation (CSR) FY13 revenue/net profit came in +4%/-1% vs. GH estimates with yoy changes

More information

FX Swaps and Forwards

FX Swaps and Forwards Dollar Funding of Second-to-Last Resort September 218 Zach Pandl Goldman, Sachs & Co. +1 212-92-5699 zach.pandl@gs.com Co-Head of Global FX, Rates and EM Strategy Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business

More information

The Private Sector Financial Balance As a Predictor of Financial Crises

The Private Sector Financial Balance As a Predictor of Financial Crises The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. The Private Sector Financial Balance As a Predictor of Financial Crises September 7, 1 Jan Hatzius Goldman, Sachs & Co. +1-9-39 jan.hatzius@gs.com Chief Economist Goldman

More information

Why is the market so excited about Intel being a foundry for Apple?

Why is the market so excited about Intel being a foundry for Apple? COMPANY UPDATE Sell Equity Research Why is the market so excited about Intel being a foundry for Apple? What's changed The market is once again excited about the prospect that Intel could be a foundry

More information

Roger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852)

Roger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852) Goldman Sachs Research Precious Metals Gold caught in a tug-of-war May 2014 Roger Yuan Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. (+852) 2978-6128 roger.yuan@gs.com The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do

More information

Russia gas supply favors gas utilities in the long term

Russia gas supply favors gas utilities in the long term Russia gas supply favors gas utilities in the long term Equity Research Russia gas supply may change long-term gas supply dynamics According to Chinanews.com, China and Russia reached an agreement for

More information

Economic and Fiscal Effects of the Affordable Care Act

Economic and Fiscal Effects of the Affordable Care Act Economic and Fiscal Effects of the Affordable Care Act Alec Phillips US Economics/Washington alec.phillips@gs.com (22) 637-3746 January 214 Goldman Sachs Global Macro Research Investors should consider

More information

Below expectations; yields still pressured, cost control is key

Below expectations; yields still pressured, cost control is key EARNINGS REVIEW Sell Below expectations; yields still pressured, cost control is key What surprised us Cathay Pacific reported FY16 revenue of HK$92,751mn (-9% yoy) with a net loss of HK$575mn (-110% yoy).

More information

Weigao sold remaining 50% interest in JWMS to Biosensors

Weigao sold remaining 50% interest in JWMS to Biosensors Weigao sold remaining 50% interest in JWMS to Biosensors Equity Research Weigao sold 50% equity interest in JWMS to Biosensors In an SPA agreement signed on June 11, Weigao sold its remaining 50% equity

More information

Long-term erosion of underlying rents offset by acquisitions; Sell

Long-term erosion of underlying rents offset by acquisitions; Sell COMPANY UPDATE Sell Equity Research Long-term erosion of underlying rents offset by acquisitions; Sell What's changed Cofinimmo reported 3Q16 earnings 6% above our expectations and 3Q16 NAV slightly below

More information

Above expectations: better margin at GL; resilient perf. elsewhere

Above expectations: better margin at GL; resilient perf. elsewhere EARNINGS REVIEW Neutral Equity Research Above expectations: better margin at GL; resilient perf. elsewhere What surprised us SJM 1Q16 EBITDA was HK$838mn (-2% qoq excluding a one-off charge in 4Q15 on

More information

GS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research. March 31, Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co

GS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research. March 31, Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research The CLO market shows signs of life GS Global ECS Credit Strategy Research March 31, 11 Alberto Gallo, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-917-33-31 alberto.gallo@gs.com

More information

Jeffrey Currie Goldman, Sachs & Co

Jeffrey Currie Goldman, Sachs & Co The New Oil Order September 217 Jeffrey Currie Goldman, Sachs & Co. +1 212-357-681 jeffrey.currie@gs.com Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a

More information

Targeted RRR cut: Small liquidity ease; more loosening needed

Targeted RRR cut: Small liquidity ease; more loosening needed Equity Research Targeted RRR cut: Small liquidity ease; more loosening needed 50bp RRR cut for banks meeting agriculture/mse loans thresholds Following the State Council s May 30 announcement of a targeted

More information

Ping An shares pledged or used as collateral by CP Group

Ping An shares pledged or used as collateral by CP Group COMMENT Ping An shares pledged or used as collateral by CP Group News On Nov 12, Ping An announced that Thailand s Charoen Pokphand Group (CP), Ping An s largest shareholder with 17.33% stake as of Nov

More information

Coal prices: April NDRC benchmark prices show further weakness

Coal prices: April NDRC benchmark prices show further weakness Equity Research Coal prices: April NDRC benchmark prices show further weakness April: NDRC and Qinhuangdao coal price trends diverged further National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) just reported

More information

Channels and technology in focus; takeaways from China LED Day

Channels and technology in focus; takeaways from China LED Day Equity Research Channels and technology in focus; takeaways from China LED Day LED takeaways: Second annual GS China LED Forum We hosted meetings at the Guangzhou International Lighting Exhibition and

More information

Down to Neutral following outperformance

Down to Neutral following outperformance ACTION Removed from Pan-Europe Buy List Down to Neutral following outperformance Equity Research What happened We downgrade Ryanair to Neutral from Buy on outperformance. Our unchanged 12-month price target

More information

China: Automobiles. Data Update: Introducing 2015 EPS estimates. Equity Research. Changes and Implications

China: Automobiles. Data Update: Introducing 2015 EPS estimates. Equity Research. Changes and Implications Data Update: Introducing 2015 EPS estimates Equity Research Changes and Implications We are introducing our 2015 EPS estimates for the following companies in our China automobile universe. We do not view

More information

Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Issues for investors

Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Issues for investors Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Issues for investors Andrew Gray Head of Environmental, Social & Governance Research Executive Director, Goldman Sachs JBWere 8 October 2008 ETS Update of where its at

More information

Slack and Monetary Policy

Slack and Monetary Policy Slack and Monetary Policy Late Exit Jan Hatzius Chief Economist Jan.Hatzius@gs.com 1-90-09 September, 01 Goldman Sachs Global Macro Research Investors should consider this report as only a single factor

More information

Above expectations: Balancing act to attain higher recurring income

Above expectations: Balancing act to attain higher recurring income EARNINGS REVIEW Buy Equity Research Above expectations: Balancing act to attain higher recurring income What surprised us CKP reported 2016 underlying profit of HK$18bn, up 16% yoy (vs 2015 s stub), and

More information

Data Update: Updating for 3Q16 sales - Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen

Data Update: Updating for 3Q16 sales - Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen Equity Research Data Update: Updating for 3Q16 sales - Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen Changes and Implications We factor in 3Q16 sales for Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen, and update our earnings estimates for Yue Yuen

More information

Economic Outlook Too Much of a Good Thing

Economic Outlook Too Much of a Good Thing The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Economic Outlook Too Much of a Good Thing April 1, 1 Jan Hatzius Goldman, Sachs & Co. +1 1-9-39 jan.hatzius@gs.com Chief Economist Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business

More information

Meeting with management continue to buy ahead of NT catalysts

Meeting with management continue to buy ahead of NT catalysts COMPANY UPDATE Buy Meeting with management continue to buy ahead of NT catalysts What's changed Yesterday, we had the opportunity to sit down with Teva s CEO (Shlomo Yanai) and CFO (Eyal Desheh) where

More information

Hong Kong: Telecom Services

Hong Kong: Telecom Services Equity Research HKT: Factoring in rights issue; TP implies 14/15E div yield 4.8%/5.7% Potential revenue synergies not factored in by management There have been no surprises at CSL a month after the completion

More information

The Lasting Effects of Uncertainty

The Lasting Effects of Uncertainty The Lasting Effects of Uncertainty 2008-09 cardiac arrest (a big outlier ): a (Bayesian) investor takes time (i.e., new evidence) to reshape her asset return distribution. Who has direct memories of 1929-33?

More information

PICC P&C to acquire a 24.7% stake in PICC Health

PICC P&C to acquire a 24.7% stake in PICC Health COMMENT PICC P&C to acquire a 24.7% stake in PICC Health Equity Research News PICC P&C announced on Jun 23 that it has entered into an agreement to acquire a 24.73% stake in PICC Health through a share

More information

Still positive post outperformance; 12m PT to 96, remain Buy

Still positive post outperformance; 12m PT to 96, remain Buy COMPANY UPDATE Buy Still positive post outperformance; 12m PT to 96, remain Buy What's changed We update our Galapagos estimates after 2016 results and the latest news. Incorporating the latest Phase 2

More information

Credit crunch is near-term bearish, long-term bullish. David Greely Goldman Sachs & Co

Credit crunch is near-term bearish, long-term bullish. David Greely Goldman Sachs & Co The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION ABOUT TRANSACTIONS IN WHICH WE ARE INVOLVED GOES HERE. Energy Outlook: Credit crunch is near-term bearish, long-term bullish November 2008

More information

Italy: Banks. Fine tuning estimates ahead of 3Q10 results. Positive trend in NII and margins near term

Italy: Banks. Fine tuning estimates ahead of 3Q10 results. Positive trend in NII and margins near term Fine tuning estimates ahead of 3Q10 results Positive trend in NII and margins near term We expect 3Q2010 results (to be reported next week) to show: 1) moderate loan growth (+3% yoy according to Bank of

More information

Property investment and new starts growth weak in Jan-Feb 2014

Property investment and new starts growth weak in Jan-Feb 2014 Equity Research Property investment and new starts growth weak in Jan-Feb 214 Property sales volume flat yoy, ASP down 4% yoy in Jan-Feb 214 National commodity property transaction volumes in Jan-Feb came

More information

Roaring Louder (23 24 June)

Roaring Louder (23 24 June) 25 June 2018 10:26AM EDT Roaring Louder (23 24 June) Though our model correctly predicted that England and Belgium would win their matches, the margins of victory England 6 1 Panama (vs GS 1.87 0.57),

More information

Wireless telecoms: The end of growth?

Wireless telecoms: The end of growth? The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research Wireless telecoms: The end of growth? Presentation to the GSMA Leadership Summit February 25, 2013 Coverage view: Neutral Tim Boddy Goldman Sachs International

More information

Contextualizing the potential impact of natural catastrophes

Contextualizing the potential impact of natural catastrophes COMMENT Contextualizing the potential impact of natural catastrophes News Parts of Yancheng city in Jiangsu province were affected by a mix of hail, thunder, tornado, and heavy rainfall on Thursday, Jun

More information

MIIT issues TD-LTE licenses to three operators, as expected

MIIT issues TD-LTE licenses to three operators, as expected MIIT issues TD-LTE licenses to three operators, as expected Equity Research MIIT issues TD-LTE licenses; CM three-mode smartphone On Dec. 4, MIIT announced it has granted TD-LTE licenses to China Mobile

More information

Revisiting Staples P/E under China s new normal growth outlook

Revisiting Staples P/E under China s new normal growth outlook Equity Research Revisiting Staples P/E under China s new normal growth outlook Revisit China Staples sector target P/E on more moderate growth Our China Branded Staples coverage 12mth fwd P/E (Biostime,

More information

What do Chow Sang Sang/Hengdeli results tell us about HK retail?

What do Chow Sang Sang/Hengdeli results tell us about HK retail? Equity Research What do Chow Sang Sang/Hengdeli results tell us about HK retail? Three implications from CSS/Hengdeli results Chow Sang Sang, a leading HK gold jeweler, and Hengdeli, a HK Swiss watch retailer,

More information

Developing Domestic Capital Markets to Finance Innovation Capacity in China and India

Developing Domestic Capital Markets to Finance Innovation Capacity in China and India Developing Domestic Capital Markets to Finance Innovation Capacity in China and India Sandra Lawson Senior Global Economist Goldman Sachs September 24, 27 China Outpaces India in FDI, But India s Upturn

More information

Leju Holdings (LEJU US)

Leju Holdings (LEJU US) Equity Research Property Leju Holdings (LEJU US) Hold (Initiation) Target price: US$16.00 Fairly valued major real estate services provider; initiate at Hold Major real estate services provider in China

More information

1Q16 retail sales point to softer core brand momentum

1Q16 retail sales point to softer core brand momentum COMMENT 1Q16 retail sales point to softer core brand momentum Equity Research News Anta reported 1Q16 retail sales growth, and 4Q16 forward trade fair orders growth. It is first worth noting that Anta

More information

Downgrading to Sell as structural issues begin to weigh on growth

Downgrading to Sell as structural issues begin to weigh on growth April 1, 2010 ACTION Sell Return Potential: (12%) Downgrading to Sell as structural issues begin to weigh on growth Source of opportunity We are downgrading RIM to Sell from Neutral with a 12-month price

More information

Americas: Transportation. 3Q Preview: Low earnings expectations; remain defensive for now. Equity Research

Americas: Transportation. 3Q Preview: Low earnings expectations; remain defensive for now. Equity Research October 10, 2012 Americas: Transportation 3Q Preview: Low earnings expectations; remain defensive for now Equity Research Key themes We expect 3Q results will be a non-event for the transportation sector.

More information

Transforming into O2O marketing; execution is key; Buy

Transforming into O2O marketing; execution is key; Buy COMMENT Transforming into O2O marketing; execution is key; Buy Equity Research News Recently we visited Ozner Water to discuss its O2O (Online to offline, and vice versa) marketing strategy, given market

More information

Americas: Managed Care. 10 years of health reform. We have a published a new 10-year industry model

Americas: Managed Care. 10 years of health reform. We have a published a new 10-year industry model October 19, 2009 10 years of health reform We have a published a new 10-year industry model As we near the final weeks for health reform efforts in Congress, we have published a new, interactive 10 year

More information

Shenhua Reuters: 1088.HK, Bloomberg: 1088 HK; YCM Reuters: 1171.HK, Bloomberg: 1171 HK

Shenhua Reuters: 1088.HK, Bloomberg: 1088 HK; YCM Reuters: 1171.HK, Bloomberg: 1171 HK 20 December 20 China Coal Market Decelerating production growth Firm spot coal prices expected in 2006: China s coal production in November only grew by 3.1% Y/Y, highlighting the production disruption

More information

Yubin Fu Goldman Sachs International+ 44(20)

Yubin Fu Goldman Sachs International+ 44(20) The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research 中国金属需求之 硬着陆 China s metals hard landing 转型 - 需求 - 展望 Transition-Demand-Outlook November 2015 Yubin Fu Goldman Sachs International+ 44(20)7552-9350 yubin.fu@gs.com

More information

Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$20.77

Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$20.77 Equity Research Information Technology May 24, 216 Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$2.77 Full-year earnings forecast trimmed as 1Q16 results miss; maintain Buy but lower target price

More information

Realization of tariff cuts should help lift stock overhang; positive

Realization of tariff cuts should help lift stock overhang; positive Equity Research Realization of tariff cuts should help lift stock overhang; positive Positive surprise: coal-fired power tariff cut of Rmb1.4cents/kWh The ational Development and Reform Commission (DRC)

More information

3QFY09 revenues in line but adjusted margins beat KIE. No changes in estimates for FY E

3QFY09 revenues in line but adjusted margins beat KIE. No changes in estimates for FY E India Daily Summary - January 29, 2009 LUPIN January 29, 2009 Pharmaceuticals LUPN.BO, Rs562 Rating Sector coverage view Target Price (Rs) BUY Attractive 950 52W High -Low (Rs) 782-438 Market Cap (Rs bn)

More information

Measuring the TBTF effect on bond pricing: Supplemental data

Measuring the TBTF effect on bond pricing: Supplemental data Measuring the TBTF effect on bond pricing: Supplemental data Data discussion This publication gives further information on the methodology used in our paper published on May 22, 2013, Measuring the TBTF

More information

View from the market Jahangir Aziz

View from the market Jahangir Aziz S T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D C O N F I D E N T I A L View from the market Jahangir Aziz 202-585-1254 jahangir.x.aziz@jpmorgan.com Mar-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 INR: India

More information

Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ Q16 results in line, renewed growth outlook; maintain Buy with target price of HK$20.

Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ Q16 results in line, renewed growth outlook; maintain Buy with target price of HK$20. Equity Research Information Technology Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$2.77 2Q16 results in line, renewed growth outlook; maintain Buy with target price of HK$2.77 2Q16 results in

More information

Coal: Potential resumption of production control likely a non-event

Coal: Potential resumption of production control likely a non-event Equity Research Coal: Potential resumption of production control likely a non-event The potential resumption of 276-day production arrangement On 15 Feb, Bloomberg reported that China National Development

More information

Europe Telecom Services

Europe Telecom Services Europe Telecom Services Estimate changes, no change in view The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. June 22, 2006 Europe Telecom Services We have made some housekeeping adjustments to our forecasts for a number

More information

China: Automobiles Autoshow: Smaller luxury, expanding middle, rising local brands. Equity Research

China: Automobiles Autoshow: Smaller luxury, expanding middle, rising local brands. Equity Research Equity Research 2013 Autoshow: Smaller luxury, expanding middle, rising local brands Three new product trends at the 2013 Shanghai Autoshow We attended the 2013 Shanghai Autoshow on April 20 and noticed

More information

Global Themes and Risks

Global Themes and Risks The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research Global Themes and Risks April 2013 Abby Joseph Cohen, CFA Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-212-902-4095 abby.cohen@gs.com Rachel Siu Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1-212-357-0493

More information

Asia Equity Strategy Research Analysts Sakthi Siva

Asia Equity Strategy Research Analysts Sakthi Siva Asia Pacific Equity Research Investment Strategy Asia Equity Strategy Research Analysts Sakthi Siva 65 6212 3027 sakthi.siva@credit-suisse.com Kin Nang Chik 852 2101 7482 kinnang.chik@credit-suisse.com

More information

AutoZone, Inc. EQUITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY UPDATE OUTPERFORM. Quick Read: Sales a Bit Soft, But Results Solid. September 22, 2016

AutoZone, Inc. EQUITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY UPDATE OUTPERFORM. Quick Read: Sales a Bit Soft, But Results Solid. September 22, 2016 EQUITY RESEARCH QUARTERLY UPDATE September 22, 2016 Stock Rating: OUTPERFORM 12-18 mo. Price Target $900.00 AZO - NYSE $751.45 3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 14% 52-Wk Range $819.54-$681.01 Shares Outstanding 30.8M

More information

SH-HK Connect (Part 3): The quant perspective

SH-HK Connect (Part 3): The quant perspective Strategy SH-HK Connect (Part 3): The quant perspective Quant-related implications for the A-share market Portfolio Strategy Research Impact of foreign investors to filter through in phases Changes in factor

More information

A key milestone in defense reform; AVIC injects assets into Chengfei

A key milestone in defense reform; AVIC injects assets into Chengfei Equity Research A key milestone in defense reform; AVIC injects assets into Chengfei AVIC announces Rmb16bn fighter jet asset injection into Chengfei; AVIC entities, inc. AviChina, to subscribe to Chengfei

More information

BUY. Suprajit Engineering (SEL) Automobiles

BUY. Suprajit Engineering (SEL) Automobiles Suprajit Engineering (SEL) Automobiles Strong performance. Suprajit Engineering reported a consolidated net profit of `210 mn in 3QFY16, which was 2% higher than our estimates. Phoenix Lamps was consolidated

More information

Technology. Internet The Mobile App Economy. Citigold Private Client 4Q Selection is key...

Technology. Internet The Mobile App Economy. Citigold Private Client 4Q Selection is key... Technology Internet The Mobile App Economy Selection is key... After generating over 120% returns in 2013, Citi s Internet index of 79 companies is down 2.3% YTD through 10 October 2014, as compared to

More information

Result review. mln) Key forecast table (MYR

Result review. mln) Key forecast table (MYR Result review Evergreen Fibreboard Hold To Buy Buy May 18, 2010 Materials Forest Products Malaysia Bloomberg EVF MK Reuters EVGN.KL Recommendation Buy Issuer credit rating Not Rated 12-month target price

More information

Rmb is back in the hot seat

Rmb is back in the hot seat 13 October 2016 China Musings: Hedging and monetizing Rmb depreciation risk in the equity market Rmb is back in the hot seat Since the National Day holidays (Oct 1 to 7), the CNY fixing and CNH have both

More information

Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ Strong earnings recovery ahead amid continued revenue momentum; maintain Buy

Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ Strong earnings recovery ahead amid continued revenue momentum; maintain Buy Equity Research Information Technology Mar 29, 216 Kingsoft (3888 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$24.7 Strong earnings recovery ahead amid continued revenue momentum; maintain Buy FY1 results in

More information

Release Date Conference Call Time (Eastern) Contact Co. Guidance Consensus May 9 May 10 8:30am TBA NA $0.29

Release Date Conference Call Time (Eastern) Contact Co. Guidance Consensus May 9 May 10 8:30am TBA NA $0.29 April 19, 2018 Company Sponsored Research Morning Meeting Note Earnings Preview OTC Markets Group Inc. (OTCM) Equity Research Forecast 10% EPS Growth In 1Q:18, Aided By Lower Taxes; View OTCM As Well Positioned

More information

Macau trip takeaway: GGR momentum remained solid during CNY

Macau trip takeaway: GGR momentum remained solid during CNY Equity Research Macau trip takeaway: GGR momentum remained solid during CNY Solid GGR in CNY; Maintain 16% GGR growth forecast in 2014E We visited Macau Friday, Feb 7 and came back feeling confident about

More information

Company Report. TCL Comm (2618 HK) Strong FY15E ahead backed by solid product roadmap in smartphone/wearables/apps/cloud; Reiterate BUY BUY

Company Report. TCL Comm (2618 HK) Strong FY15E ahead backed by solid product roadmap in smartphone/wearables/apps/cloud; Reiterate BUY BUY Company Report China Merchants Securities (HK) Co.Ltd. Hong Kong Equity Research TCL Comm (2618 HK) Strong FY15E ahead backed by solid product roadmap in smartphone/wearables/apps/cloud; Reiterate BUY

More information

Pricing power returns to broadband; Raise ARPU estimates by 8%

Pricing power returns to broadband; Raise ARPU estimates by 8% Equity Research Pricing power returns to broadband; Raise ARPU estimates by 8% Second price hike in fixed broadband and 4G network launch Hong Kong telcos witnessed two major changes in May with a second

More information

Lotte Hi-Mart ( KS)

Lotte Hi-Mart ( KS) (071840 KS) Margins to improve in 2H Retail Results Comment May 12, 2014 (Maintain) Buy Target Price (12M, W) 89,000 Share Price (5/9/14, W) 72,300 Expected Return 23% OP (, Wbn) 187 Consensus OP (, Wbn)

More information

Video March 1, StratTV at the TMT Conference. Watch the video: Related Research

Video March 1, StratTV at the TMT Conference. Watch the video: Related Research March 1, 2016 Video StratTV at the TMT Conference MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Adam S. Parker, Ph.D. Adam.Parker@morganstanley.com Video March 1, 2016 +1 212 761-1755 Watch the video: Related Research US Equity

More information

Goodbaby (1086 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ H16 results miss, but margin expansion continues. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary

Goodbaby (1086 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$ H16 results miss, but margin expansion continues. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Goodbaby (1086 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$4.20 1H16 results miss, but margin expansion continues Maintain Buy Net profit rose 21% YoY to HK$107m in 1H16,

More information

A snapshot of the life of an applied economist

A snapshot of the life of an applied economist The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research A snapshot of the life of an applied economist Kasper Lund-Jensen +44 (0) 20 7552 0159 kasper.lund-jensen@gs.com Goldman Sachs International November

More information

DBIQ Update DBLCI - OY Roll Report - January 2008

DBIQ Update DBLCI - OY Roll Report - January 2008 Index Research Global Markets Research Europe 3 January 2008 DBIQ Update DBLCI - OY Roll Report - January 2008 The report lists the DBLCI-OY contracts which will be rolled in January 2008. No contracts

More information

BUY SREI (SREI) Banks/Financial Institutions

BUY SREI (SREI) Banks/Financial Institutions .dot SREI (SREI) Banks/Financial Institutions Buoyancy in infrastructure to drive business, upgrade to BUY. We find Srei s stock attractive at the current levels on account of (1) its inexpensive valuations,

More information

Peak Sport (1968 HK)

Peak Sport (1968 HK) Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Sport (1968 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$2.41 Signing of NBA All-Star player to enhance brand equity and ease concerns Signing of Dwight Howard to enhance

More information

Anta Sports (2020 HK)

Anta Sports (2020 HK) Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Anta Sports (2020 HK) Buy (maintained) Target price: HK$18.50 Strong FY14 results; order book momentum maintained FY14 results above expectation Net profit jumped

More information

March car market +13.6% yoy; we see Japanese brands recovering but pricing risk remains

March car market +13.6% yoy; we see Japanese brands recovering but pricing risk remains April 9, 214 China: Automobiles Equity Research March car market +13.6% yoy; we see Japanese brands recovering but pricing risk remains March car market up 13.6% yoy On April 9, ChinaAutoMarket released

More information

Alphabet Inc. GOOGL - NASDAQ Neutral -1

Alphabet Inc. GOOGL - NASDAQ Neutral -1 COMPANY UPDATE / TARGET CHANGE ESTIMATE CHANGE Key Metrics GOOGL - NASDAQ - as of 5/1/17 $932.82 Price Target $1,000.00 52-Week Range $672.66 - $935.82 Diluted Shares Outstanding (mil) 702.0 Market Cap.

More information

Solid longer-term growth outlook; coverage view to Attractive

Solid longer-term growth outlook; coverage view to Attractive Solid longer-term growth outlook; coverage view to Attractive Equity Research Near-term trends stable for managed care and providers We upgrade our coverage view for Managed Care to Attractive from Neutral.

More information

Chart 2: Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) Year-over-year % change, 3MMA. Chart 1: China Real GDP Growth 12% QoQ Annualized 70% 10% Infrastructure 50%

Chart 2: Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) Year-over-year % change, 3MMA. Chart 1: China Real GDP Growth 12% QoQ Annualized 70% 10% Infrastructure 50% Chart 1: China Real GDP Growth 12% 1 YoY QoQ Annualized 8% 6% 4% 2% 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 Source: NBS, FactSet J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Chart 2: Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) Year-over-year % change,

More information

Global laser update: higher power/microelectronics trending, R&D spends strong; Buy Han s

Global laser update: higher power/microelectronics trending, R&D spends strong; Buy Han s November 4, 2016 China: Capital Goods Equity Research Global laser update: higher power/microelectronics trending, R&D spends strong; Buy Han s Global laser leaders sales up by teens in China/ Asia, higher

More information

Alphabet Inc. GOOGL - NASDAQ Neutral -1

Alphabet Inc. GOOGL - NASDAQ Neutral -1 COMPANY UPDATE / ESTIMATE CHANGE / TARGET CHANGE Key Metrics GOOGL - NASDAQ - as of 10/30/17 $1,033.13 Price Target $1,100 52-Week Range $743.59 - $1,063.62 Diluted Shares Outstanding (mil) 703.5 Market

More information

Negative preannouncement

Negative preannouncement Estimate Change Equity United States Electronics NEUTRAL Negative preannouncement PC demand creates FQ3 shortfall Last night, Seagate announced that FQ3 (March) results would be below expectations due

More information

Globe Union Industrial Corp

Globe Union Industrial Corp Globe Union Industrial Corp To acquire UK kitchen/bathroom product distributor - ALERT Acquiring 100% of PJH in UK: Globe Union announced late last night that the company will acquire 100% of a kitchen/bathroom

More information

Daphne (210 HK) Hold (maintained) Target price: HK$1.07. Takeaways from company visit. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary.

Daphne (210 HK) Hold (maintained) Target price: HK$1.07. Takeaways from company visit. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary. Equity Research Consumer Discretionary Daphne (21 HK) Hold (maintained) Target price: HK$1.7 Takeaways from company visit Maintain Hold We recently visited Daphne to gain a more in-depth insight into its

More information

In line with expectation: Some good progress but still early

In line with expectation: Some good progress but still early EARNINGS REVIEW Neutral In line with expectation: Some good progress but still early What surprised us NCI 1H16 results were mostly in line with expectations. New business value was Rmb4bn, +18% yoy vs.

More information

Europe Energy: Oil - Refining

Europe Energy: Oil - Refining Europe Energy: Oil - Refining Downgrading the sector to Neutral and rating changes on the back of Neste s profit warning The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. December 13, 2005 Europe Energy: Oil - Refining Neste

More information

Pico Far East Holdings Limited

Pico Far East Holdings Limited e 20 Pico Far East Holdings Limited Recent major contract wins indicate accelerating business momentum Overweight HK$2.39 01 e 20 Price Target: HK$2.80 Business update: Pico Far East announced it has won

More information