Duna House Barometer 03. August outlook: age specifications

Transcription

1 Duna House Barometer 03. August outlook: age specifications

2 Table of contents: Executive Summary 3. Transaction numbers and Demand Index 4. Home price data - August 5. Interest in the districts 6. Outlook: Age specifications 7. Transaction parameters - Budapest 8 Transaction parameters - County 9. Privacy policy, expected issues 10. 2

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY According to the Duna House Tranzaction number Estimate (DH-TE) in August 7333 real estate sales were done in the country making this month the highest in sales this year so far. The reason for this is partially can be found in seasonality, since the holiday season burdened July the most within summer months, therefore transactions missed because of it has been made up for by the market in August. If we compare transaction numbers of May-June with its approximate 6700 number with changes caused by seasonality we can see, that the market increased regardless. The more active market and the continuous market share increase of Duna House together resulted in the highest buy-sale transaction number in August 2011 in the history of the company. This record means the number of transactions, regarding the income there were better results in previous periods of the market. After the weakest month, June, this year the demand returned to its regular status of the year and August also keeps the 75 point value of July. We can say, that the demand this year remained at the same level so far, the decline of last year not yet continued. Property purchase prices show a big difference in August 2011 compared to previous months, since an increase can be seen everywhere according to the average data. If we compare the prices in August to the prices in June not July we cannot see an increase in them, rather a temporary reduction was typical in the month of July. According to our (newly introduced) quality preference analysis this month two thirds of our customers were looking for a higher quality, within this specifically high quality flats were bought in larger quantities in Budapest. Flats in need of renovation were bought mainly in the capital (1). Interest in the districts was mostly the same in August as it was in June. Interest toward inner city districts returned to the level it was on two months ago, as the favorite XIII district is beginning to get its place back as a leader. As months pass by it seems, that sellers need to lower their target price in case of houses in the capital the most, only for buyers to bargain it even a little bit lower. Sellers are able to mark the target price more accurately in cases of panel flats, but they are in a better situation, since we talk about typical flats. Altogether nor the values in Budapest, nor in the county have changed. In August we examined the age groups in finalized transactions. The main difference is, that half the buyers came from the 20-40yrs age group in the county, while it was two thirds in the capital. There is a huge difference in expectations and possibilities as well: 40-50yrs age group buys bigger and more expensive properties in the county, while in Budapest the same is true for the 10-year younger age group. In case of the sellers there is a smaller difference, the 30-40yrs age group makes up for almost half the statistic nationwide. It is interesting to see, that the highest category properties are sold by the above 50s in the capital. Transaction parameters in August are also similar to the ones in June, than to previous months, therefore because this is the umpteenth similarity we can say, that the status of the real estate market in July was by all means exceptional. In Buda every 10th buyer spent over 40M HUF on real estate, in Pest only one out of 100. Half the buyers choose flats between m 2 in the county, and in more than 6 of the cases they spend between 5-10M HUF. In Pest county the picture is more homogeneous, they buy between m 2 and there is a bigger difference in prices as well. Further information: Gábor Rutai PR and analysis leader rutai.gabor@dh.hu Mobile:

4 TRANSACTION NUMBERS AND DEMAND INDEX DH -TE (Duna House Tranzaction number Estimate) According to our estimate in August 7333 real estate sales were completed in the country making this month the highest in sales this year so far. The reason for this is partially can be found in seasonality, since the holiday season burdened July the most within summer months, therefore transactions missed because of it has been made up for by the market in August. If we compare transaction numbers of May-June with its approximate 6700 number with changes caused by seasonality we can see, that the market increased regardless. DH-TB Éves Annual tranzakciószám transaction number (KSH) (KSH) Duna DH Transaction House Becslés estimate * eddig: Sum january január february február március march április april május may június june july július *KSH (* preliminary előzetes data) augusztus august 0 DH-TB method The most important indicator number of real estate market conditions is the annual transaction number of buying and selling. The official data is provided by KSH. (We marked these with blue.) The DH-TE is an estimate, that shows an approximate mid-year data. It is based on the official data provided by KSH and the rate of transaction numbers conducted by Duna House. The estimate starts from this direction and is based on the monthly transaction numbers of Duna House, and it also contains professional corrections, that can have an effect on its actual market share. These can be as follows: the effect of the exchange rate of Swiss franc to the real estate market, the rate of priority mandates, loan disbursement data by MNB and the performance of Duna House Hitel Centrum (loan center), the ratio of purchases made by loan/cash, sample checks made by the Land Registry Office, etc. DH - Demand Index After the weakest month, June, this year the demand returned to its regular status of the year and August also keeps the 75 point value of July. We can say, that the demand this year remained at the same level so far, the decline of last year not yet contiued August July June May April March February January December November October September August July June May April March February January About the Demand Index We base the index on the activity of our new customers registered by our approximately 1100 realtors nationwide. Correction factors are the number of realtors and workdays of each month. The Demand Index is a useful indicator for those who need to know the reaction of the buyers side to political decisions or options offered by the financial sector is also an offer-rich market, so this is a valuable index for sellers as well. The Demand Index is a quantitative index, it does not have an immediate connection with transaction numbers. This latter one is a matter of quality, that greatly depends on the mood of the market and bank products as well. 4

5 HOME PRICE DATA - August We show our home price data in comparison with July This comparison uses simple averages, so they do not mean trends. Our home price indexes will be recalculated next month based on the 3rd quarter. july Panel HU august m2 price unit price m2 price unit price East West july Brick HU august East West july Panel Bp august Buda Pest july Brick Bp august Buda Pest D.town quality preferences- Budapest Needs renovation 1 Property purchase prices show a big difference in August 2011 compared to previous months, since an increase can be seen everywhere according to the average data. If we compare the prices in August to the prices in June not July we cannnot see an increase in them, rather a temporary reduction was tipical in the month of July. In case of the sellers there is a smaller difference, the 30-40yrs age group makes up for almost half the statistic nationwide. It is interesting to see, that the highest category properties are sold by the above 50s in the capital. As we can see from DH-TE data the least amount of buys-sales were made in July, buyers concentrated more at higher quality, and the demand toward lesser quality flats in need of renovation was high. According to our (newly intruduced) quality preference analysis this month two thirds of our customers were looking for a higher quality, within this spacifically high quality flats were bought in larger quantities in Budapest. Flats in need of renovation were bought mainly in the capital (1). quality preferences- country Needs renovation Very good 3 Acceptable 2 Very good 28% Acceptable 2 Good 3 Good 39% 5

6 INTEREST IN THE DISTRICTS Districts July August Budapest 01. ker. 8% 9% Budapest 02. ker Budapest 03. ker. 1 1 Budapest 04. ker. Budapest 05. ker. 1 1 Budapest 06. ker. 1 Budapest 07. ker. 1 Budapest 08. ker. 9% 1 Budapest 09. ker. 1 1 Budapest 10. ker. 5% Budapest 11. ker. 19% 19% Budapest 12. ker. 1 1 Budapest 13. ker. 1 19% Budapest 14. ker. 1 Budapest 15. ker. 5% Budapest 16. ker. 5% 5% Budapest 17. ker. Budapest 18. ker. 5% 5% Budapest 19. ker. Budapest 20. ker. Budapest 21. ker. Budapest 22. ker. Budapest 23. ker. II. XII. XXII. XI. III. I. V XIII. VI. VII. XXI. VIII. IV. IX. XIV. XX. Method: Our potential buyers mark districts (can be several ones!), that can be of their interest with our realtor at a personal meeting. We use these data to create the popularity map shown above. XV. XIX. XXIII. X. XVI. XVIII. XVII. Interest in the districts was mostly the same in August as it was in June. Interest toward inner city districts returned to the level it was on two months ago, as the favourite XIII district is beginning to get its place back as a leader. The south Pest region can be considered to be behind the others, yet a slow increase was seen during the past 3 months, so potential buyers do not consider it impossible to move into these districts if they find a good buy here. BARGAIN - August 2011 HOUSE PANEL FLATS BRICK FLATS ALTOGETHER Change in target price Bargain Budapest 1 Pest county 1 Region 1 8% Budapest 8% 5% Region 1 Budapest 1 5% Region 1 Budapest 1 5% Region 1 As months pass by it seems, that sellers need to lower their target price in case of houses in the capital the most, only for buyers to bargain it even a little bit lower (14+). Sellers are able to mark the target price more accurately in cases of panel flats, but they are in a better situation, since we talk about typical flats. Altogether nor the values in Budapest (11+5%), nor in the county (12+) have changed. Change in target price is the difference shown between the first recorded target price in the mandate and the last recorded target price in the presence of the buyer. The bargain shows the further price reduction agreed by the buyer and the seller during meetings. The two numbers together clearly show the price difference between the one the seller decided and the one at the sale. 6

7 OUTLOOK: AGE SPECIFICATIONS In August we examined the age groups in finalized transactions. The main difference is, that half the buyers came from the 20-40yrs age group in the county, while it was two thirds in the capital. There is a huge difference in expectations and possibilities as well: 40-50yrs age group buys the bigger and more expensive properties in the county, while in Budapest the same is true for the 10-year younger age group. In case of the sellers there is a smaller difference, the 30-40yrs age group makes up for almost half the statistic nationwide. It is interesting to see, that the highest category properties are sold by the above 50s in the capital. age of a buyers in Budapest Age Purchase price Apartm. size BUYERS age of a buyers in country side < Age Purchase price Apartm. size < < SELLERS age of a sellers in country side age of a sellers in Budapest Age Sale price Apartm. size < Age Sale price Apartm. size <

8 5% 5% 9% 8% 9% 8% % % 4 39% 5 9% % % 18% 28% % DUNA HOUSE TRANSACTION PARAMETERS BUDAPEST We categorized flat purchases on the two sides of the capital in July 2011 (blue) and August 2011 (red). Parameters in August are also similar to the ones in June, than to previous months, therefore because this is the umpteenth similarity we can say, that the status of the real estate market in July was by all means exceptional. In Buda every 10th buyer spent over 40M HUF on real estate, in Pest only one out of 100. BUDA PEST Apartm. size (m2) Under 20 Above 160 Under 20 Above 160 Apartm. size (m2) m2 price (1000 Ft) Under 50 Above 400 Under 50 Above 400 m2 price (1000 Ft) Apartm. price (million Ft) Above 40M Above 40M 2011 july 2011 august 8

9 5% % 18% % % % 5% % % % DUNA HOUSE TRANSACTION PARAMETERS COUNTY We categorized flat purchases in Pest county and in the region in July 2011 (blue) and August 2011 (red). Half the buyers choose flats between m2 in the county, and in more than 6 of the cases they spend between 5-10M HUF. In Pest county the picture is more homogeneous, they buy between m2 and there is a bigger difference in prices as well. NATIONAL (Without Central-Hungary) Apartm. size (m2) PEST COUNTY Apartm. size (m2) Under 20 Above 160 Under 20 Above 160 m2 price m2 price Under 50 Above 400 Under 50 Above 400 Apartm. price (million Ft) Apartm. price (million Ft) Above 40M Above 40M 2011 july 2011 august 9

10 PRIVACY POLICY Statistics and estimates published in Duna House Barometer are the sole property of Duna House. Statistics and estimates of Duna House Barometer were only meant to provide information, Duna House does not accept any responsibility for their completeness and correctness. Statistical information and estimates published in Duna House Barometer can be used for private use, anyone can use it for their own discretion freely with the following conditions: Statistics and estimates published in Duna House Barometer cannot be changed, they can only be published in an unchanged format. Statistics and estimates published in Duna House Barometer can only be published with marking their source: Source: Duna House Barometer" must be placed in the beginning or at the end of the text. The text sorrounding it must, if there is any, undoubtfully point at Duna House Barometer, as a source. Any different usage from the above conditions are considered unlawful, therefore punishable according to civil law. Duna House can demand the termination of unlawful activities and full compansation for damages caused. In case of breaking rules concerning links, Duna House has the right to immediately delete the link pointing at its web site and demand compensation for damages caused. EXPECTED ISSUES Time of issue October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012 Topic rd quarter + September data October 2011 data November 2011 data Complete th quarter + December data Duna House Barometer is available on our web site on the 8th of every month (if at the weekend, then on the next business day). If you would like to receive Duna House Real Estate Barometer regularly or download our previous issues please visit our site. 10