Capital Confidence Barometer

Transcription

1 Real Estate, Hospitality and Construction June 2014 ey.com/realestate 10th edition Capital Confidence Barometer Confidence high despite slow momentum Economic outlook Resilient confidence Access to capital A penchant for leverage Growth strategies Parallel priorities M&A Deal metrics improving

2 Confidence high despite slow momentum Although robust growth rates may be flattening, confidence in fundamentals remains high, helping to fuel optimism about future dealmaking. Key findings 57% 84% 51% 39% 54% 33% 41% see the global economy improving view credit availability as stable or improving plan to use debt to finance deals are focused on growth expect global M&A volumes to improve expect to pursue an acquisition believe the valuation gap is less than 10% 2

3 RHC companies are prepared and well-positioned for growth. A note from Howard Roth, Global Real Estate, Hospitality and Construction Leader Our latest Capital Confidence Barometer reflects the beginnings of a transition from growth to stability for real estate, hospitality and construction (RHC) companies. Respondents have strong confidence in the economy the overwhelming majority believe the economy is improving or stable, up significantly from a year ago. Despite certain factors hindering respondents confidence employment is lagging and geopolitical factors remain a risk overall sentiment is strong, especially for indicators, such as corporate earnings and short-term market stability. In the context of the last six years, this outlook is excellent news for the RHC sector. In addition, healthy debt markets and access to credit are fueling RHC companies refinancing and acquisition plans, with executives increasingly willing to take on debt, while keeping debt-to-capital ratios healthy. This access to capital is not only allowing companies to position themselves for growth, but also providing favorable conditions for mergers and acquisitions. On the other hand, this Barometer also finds RHC acquisition intentions relatively flat vs. six months and a year ago. It also shows a shift in companies Capital Agenda priorities away from investing in favor of optimizing performance and raising capital. Given respondents broader optimism on the economy, we believe that executives are not shying away from growth, but preparing for it. Internally, RHC companies are creating appropriate capital structures, and externally, they are conducting rigorous diligence on potential acquisitions. At the same time, RHC companies are increasingly looking to higher-risk organic strategies. In this new post-crisis environment, RHC companies are prepared and well-positioned for growth. A note from Pip McCrostie, EY Global Vice Chair, Transaction Advisory Services For leading global corporates, striking a balance between risk and reward has rarely been so difficult. Companies are grappling with geopolitical instability, a fragile global economic recovery, and seismic shifts in megatrends, such as structural changes in the workforce and digital transformation all at a time of unprecedented shareholder activism. Many executives are now navigating this complexity with parallel priorities. Value is being sought today through a renewed focus on cost-management strategies and returning rewards to increasingly active shareholders. At the same time, some executives are also seeking value creation and top-line revenue through innovative organic growth and measured dealmaking. Larger, more transformational M&A is on the strategic growth agenda. Pipelines point to only modest increases in deals as low volume becomes the hallmark of a low-growth environment. Increased deal values, rather than volumes, will likely be making headlines in the coming year. After a prolonged financial crisis and M&A market malaise, companies and boards are opting for quality rather than quantity. 3

4 Economic outlook confidence remains strong, but may be slowing Executives are moving beyond a recovery mind-set, anticipating growth and stability. RHC respondents appear confident in the strength of the global economy and in economic indicators across the board. As ever, economic pressures and geopolitical shocks are factored into companies risk profiles, but for now, economic signals are strengthening interest rates are expected to remain at historically low levels, and in developed economies, relative political stability has brought stability to capital markets. For RHC companies, this environment bodes well for dealmaking in the medium to long term. Strengthening economic confidence The majority of RHC respondents continue to have a positive view of the global economy. Overall, the prevailing sentiment is that the economy is improving or stable, with an overwhelming majority of respondents (93%) taking that view. Those who say the economy is declining decreased significantly, to 7%. For RHC respondents, this view may be driven by fiscal and political calm in many geographies and by low interest rates from central banks around the globe. Economic confidence not reflected in job creation expectations Job creation expectations have decreased for the RHC sector, with plans to add to the workforce having dropped significantly, from 44% six months ago to 30%. Because employment and wages in the global economy are key drivers of real estate demand, RHC companies may also be feeling the impact of global employment plans, which have also declined. Global megatrends converging to shape business and acquisition strategies Macro trends affect corporate strategies among all companies, and they can have a direct impact on both business and acquisition behavior. When asked which trend could have the greatest impact over the next 12 months, more than half of RHC executives pointed to the trend commonly called the future of work skill shortages, competition for talent and changing employer/employee obligations, among other issues. Digital transformation (e.g., big data, cloud and mobile technologies) is seen as having the least impact a surprise, given how technologies are driving changes in the way real estate is used, as well as how RHC businesses operate. 4

5 Positive economic factors Q: What is your perspective on the state of the global economy today? Improving Stable Declining 7% 15% 15% 22% 36% 37% 48% 57% 63% 93% say the global economy is either improving or stable Q: With regard to employment, which of the following does your organization expect to do in the next 12 months? Global respondents 17% 52% 31% 11% 41% 48% 10% 48% 42% RHC respondents 13% 57% 30% 10% 46% 44% 15% 45% 40% 30% of RHC executives intend to create jobs/hire talent Reduce workforce numbers Keep current workforce size Create jobs/hire talent Q: Which of these global trends is most likely to impact your business and acquisition strategy over the next 12 months? Select up to two. Future of work Global rebalancing Rethinking government Resourceful planet Digital transformation 53% 47% 42% 37% 37% 32% 30% 30% 24% 36% 53% expect future of work issues to drive their business and acquisition strategies Business strategy Acquisition strategy 5

6 Economic outlook, cont d Geopolitical instability a challenge Political instability top-of-mind for respondents Geopolitical shocks have consistently checked RHC respondents economic and business confidence. Corporate leaders now factor macro risk into their business, even as specific events affect near-term confidence. Executives also identify emerging markets as a key risk, fueled by both political instability and slowing growth. The management of quantitative easing and rising interest rates does not rate highly for RHC respondents, which is surprising given its impact on pricing, economic growth and financing conditions all crucial components for real estate investors. Confidence seen across key financial indicators RHC respondents report strong confidence across financial metrics. Our respondents perceptions of these indicators are up in nearly all categories, and confidence in corporate earnings and short-term market stability has increased significantly. 6

7 Q: What do you believe to be the greatest economic risk to your business over the next 6-12 months? Increased global political instability Continued slower growth in key emerging markets Inability to effectively manage quantitative easing (tapering) Pace of structural reforms in Eurozone In ation De ation 2% 13% 11% 9% 30% 35% 35% view global political instability as the greatest economic risk to their businesses Q: Please indicate your level of confidence in the following: Corporate earnings Credit availability Short-term market stability 22% 30% 39% 59% 49% 49% 53% 51% 49% 59% have confidence in corporate earnings Equity valuations/ stock market outlook 39% 32% 35% 7

8 Access to capital a penchant for leverage More than half of RHC executives plan to put debt to work in the next year, saying it will be their primary source of deal financing. RHC respondents indicate that credit markets continue to be healthy as they have for some time. But now executives report a growing willingness to add leverage to their balance sheets. With debt financing increasingly available often at very low cost and very favorable terms more and more companies are looking to use debt to finance deals. Strong confidence in credit availability RHC executives are confident in the strength and stability of the global credit markets. When asked about credit availability at the global level, 49% see it improving vs. 53% six months ago, and 35% view it as stable vs. 33% six months ago. We are seeing an increase in the availability of credit, coupled with overall stabilization in credit conditions. New entrants to the lending market and a variety of forms of credit are contributing to the health of the market. This persistent confidence in the availability of financing particularly for larger, well-rated firms provides a favorable platform for dealmaking. Shift in deal financing from equity to debt As RHC executives seek to maximize returns, we see a dramatic increase in planned debt usage as a percentage of purchase price. The currently advantageous terms on debt financing are spurring an uptick in the use of leverage, which allows RHC companies to make tighter pricing work, and could increase M&A activity. More than half of respondents cited debt as their primary source of deal financing vs. 37% six months ago and 30% one year ago, while the number of respondents planning to use equity as their primary source fell to 10% from 23% six months ago and 21% one year ago. Notably, the shift to debt, which could present more risk for RHC respondents, is mitigated by the maintenance of healthy debt-to-capital ratios (a strong majority are below 50%). 8

9 Swing toward debt Q: Please indicate your level of confidence in credit availability at the global level: 16% 35% 49% 14% 33% 53% 18% 31% 51% Declining Stable Improving 84% believe that credit availability is either improving or stable Q: What is the likely primary source of your company s deal financing in the next 12 months? 10% 23% 21% 51% 30% 37% 40% 49% 39% Equity Debt Cash Q: What is your company s current debtto-capital ratio? Less than 25% 25% 49.9% 50% 74.9% 22% 20% 24% 28% 31% 33% 40% 37% 37% 51% plan to use debt as their primary source of deal financing 75% 100% 10% 10% 8% 9

10 Access to capital, cont d Changing reasons for refinancing Extension of maturities and reduction in interest costs drive refinancing In the past six months, there has been a significant shift in the primary purpose of refinancing, from retiring maturing debt to extending maturities. This shift, coupled with a desire to reduce interest costs, which rose from 2% of respondents six months ago to 22%, suggests that respondents are taking advantage of currently (and potentially short-lived) attractive financing terms. This shift implies that RHC executives feel that their capital structures are largely optimized and they can move away from defensive measures and toward future M&A activities. Various factors, including the upward pressure on interest rates from the US Federal Reserve tapering its bond-buying program, could be contributing to the presumed urgency. 10

11 Q: Does your company plan to refinance loans or other debt obligations in the next 12 months? Q: What will be the primary purpose of your refinancing? No 59% 55% 68% Yes 41% 45% 32% Extend maturity (short-term debt extension) Reduce interest cost Optimizing the capital structure (non-stressed situation) Remove restrictive covenants 2% 4% 3% 38% 32% 26% 22% 11% 16% 19% 42% 13% 38% indicate that the primary purpose of refinancing is to extend maturities Retire maturing debt 11% 18% 43% 11

12 Growth strategies parallel priorities RHC executives are compelled to consider higher-risk organic strategies. RHC executives indicated less enthusiasm for growth in the near term. The search for growth after years in which companies were rewarded for consistency and a lack of risk-taking is directing executives away from a singular focus on their core offerings. RHC companies are considering a new mix of products and services and optimizing capital for future growth initiatives. Cost reduction is no longer just an operational issue but also a strategic imperative which could mean an uptick in M&A activity as companies take advantage of scale and cost synergies in acquisitions. Balanced focus on growth and cost reduction The pressure remains on companies to grow, in spite of slower long-term GDP growth. But lessons learned from the global financial crisis mean that closer scrutiny of cost structures and operational efficiency is now the norm. We now see a balanced focus on growth and cost reduction as RHC executives have shifted some of their focus away from growth toward maintaining stability over the next 12 months. Companies begin to innovate and pursue higher-risk organic strategies Companies have begun to consider higher-risk approaches to organic growth. We see a major increase in companies looking to new geographies and markets as well as investing in R&D and new products, reflecting the increasingly global and diverse nature of many real estate organizations. Accordingly, lower-risk strategies have become less popular. Just 31% of respondents indicated that they were more rigorously focusing on core products/existing markets, down from 39% over the last six months. And a focus on new sales channels has all but disappeared. Greater focus on organic growth vs. acquisition The percentage of planned growth explicitly assigned to acquisition is less than the amount assigned to organic growth. However, 45% of RHC respondents still expect to assign 25% or more of their planned growth to acquisition. As RHC companies begin to exhaust organic opportunities, the drive toward M&A is likely to increase. 12

13 Exploring new markets Q: Which statement best describes your organization s focus over the next 12 months? 4% 22% 2% 9% 3% 15% 34% 24% 35% Survival Maintain stability Growth 58% 55% 39% 39% are now focused on growth Q: What is the primary focus of your company s organic growth over the next 12 months? Lower-risk strategies Higher-risk strategies More rigorous focus on core products/ existing markets New sales channels 0% 17% 17% 31% 39% 32% Investing in new geographies/markets Changing mix of existing products and services Exploiting technology to develop new markets/products 12% 17% 15% 15% 15% 12% 15% 8% 30% 69% of companies consider pursuing higher-risk growth strategies Increase R&D/product introductions 2% 12% 11% Q: What percentage of your planned growth for the current fiscal year is explicitly assigned to acquisition? Less than 25% 25% 50% Greater than 50% 8% 37% 55% 45% indicate that 25% or more of their planned growth is explicitly assigned to acquisition 13

14 Growth strategies, cont d Optimizing leads the RHC Capital Agenda Q: On which of the following capital management issues is your company placing the greatest attention and resources? Raising: A company s ability to raise capital is integral to achieving its growth imperatives and financial well-being. And with credit increasingly available and more attractive, significantly more companies now indicate a desire to take on more leverage, which signals that increased and larger dealmaking may be on the horizon. Global respondents 28% 14% 24% RHC respondents 16% 31% Raising Investing 19% Global respondents The Capital Agenda 3% 5% 9% RHC respondents Preserving Optimizing 2% 6% 9% Preserving: A company s ability to access liquidity, control costs and engage with key stakeholders is essential to preserving capital amid shifting market forces. Since most companies were forced to focus on preservation in order to survive, they are now able to concentrate on other areas of their Capital Agenda. 14

15 Investing: Major increases in raising and optimizing capital have come at the expense of investment. This is a sign of companies setting the stage for later inorganic growth. Boardrooms with longer-term plans for acquisitions are now focused less on speed than on building dealmaking capacity and rigor. Sizable changes in the way RHC executives are allocating capital Global respondents 22% 52% 40% RHC respondents 22% 42% 45% Global respondents 47% 29% 27% RHC respondents 45% 36% 27% Optimizing: Companies continue to employ a disciplined approach to optimization with an enhanced focus on governance and fiscal rigor. With capital structures largely optimized, today they are primarily focused on refinancing to retire maturing debt and position themselves for more leverage. 15

16 M&A deal metrics improving Dealmaking fundamentals are in place. Global economic indicators point to a favorable dealmaking environment ahead. Our respondents are aligned with global trends, indicating positive expectations for deal fundamentals: greater deal volumes and narrowing valuation gaps. Although high prices may make dealmaking challenging, many RHC companies appear well-positioned to undertake M&A. We can expect companies to conduct rigorous due diligence a legacy of the last financial crisis. Optimism on deal volumes RHC respondents are bullish on deal volumes, with 54% expecting improvement in the next 12 months. In fact, the number of executives expecting deal volumes to improve is significantly higher than the number of executives expecting no change, and very few expect a decline. At the same time, only one-third of respondents expect to pursue acquisitions themselves, relatively flat with six months and one year ago. When RHC companies do take action, the core fundamentals are in place for dealmaking including growing confidence in the global economy and financial markets, and widely available credit. Valuation gap narrows As the economy recovers, the gap between the price that companies are willing to pay and what sellers are willing to accept is shrinking. More than 40% of RHC respondents believe the valuation gap is less than 10%, and a significant majority (85%) expect the gap to contract or stay the same. This alignment on asset pricing may be an early indication of increased dealmaking in the medium to long term. 16

17 Favorable deal environment Q: What is your expectation for M&A/ deal volumes in the next 12 months? Q: Do you expect your company to pursue an acquisition in the next 12 months? Improve Remain the same Decline 8% 38% 54% 40% 30% 20% 10% 33% 31% 25% 25% 34% 29% 35% 32% 33% 31% 54% expect M&A/deal volumes to improve in the next 12 months 0% Apr 12 Oct 12 Global RHC Q: Do you believe the valuation gap today between buyers and sellers is: No gap Less than 10% 10% 20% 21% 30% More than 30% 8% 2% 9% 10% 7% 7% 17% 16% 23% 13% 29% 33% 33% 50% 42% Q: : Do you expect the valuation gap between buyers and sellers in the next 12 months to: Contract Stay the same Widen 15% 11% 23% 21% 24% 29% 50% 62% 65% 41% believe the valuation gap is less than 10% 17

18 M&A, cont d Inward focus shifts to a competitive market outlook Gaining share in new markets continues to be the primary focus RHC respondents indicate that the two main drivers for their planned acquisition activity are the same as six months ago. These include gaining share in new markets (64%) and gaining share in existing markets (48%). A significant decrease took place in those citing gaining share in existing markets, which fell to 48% vs. 63% six months ago. We see a strong decrease in those seeking to reduce costs, perhaps indicating that respondents have shifted from an inward focus to a competitive market outlook. 18

19 Q: What are the main drivers of your company s planned acquisition in your chosen market/country? Gain share in new markets (product or geography) Gain share in existing markets Leverage distribution networks Access to technology/ intellectual property Reduce cost and improve pro tability/margin 5% 20% 15% 20% 14% 10% 11% 20% 33% 48% 53% 53% 64% 68% 63% 64% cite gaining share in new markets as the primary driver of planned acquisitions 19

20 M&A, cont d Top cross-border investment destinations Q: Which are the top countries (outside your local market) in which your company is most likely to invest? Top five destination countries 5. UK 2. US 4. Brazil 20

21 1. China 3. Philippines China and the US are top investment targets Investment destinations continue to evolve as companies challenge their growth strategies and underlying risk tolerance. RHC companies are diversifying across emerging and developed markets intended investment in the US and UK signals a return of confidence in established economies. Respondents are also eyeing BRIC and non-bric emerging markets China, Brazil and the Philippines given that these countries benefits, especially their growing middleincome populations, outweigh their significant challenges, including access, political and currency risk and slowing growth. Top destinations: RHC 1. China 2. US 3. Philippines 4. Brazil 5. UK Global 1. China 2. US 3. India 4. UK 5. Germany 21

22 Notes About this survey The Global Capital Confidence Barometer gauges corporate confidence in the economic outlook and identifies boardroom trends and practices in the way companies manage their Capital Agendas EY s framework for strategically managing capital. It is a regular survey of senior executives from large companies around the world, conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Our panel comprises select global EY clients and contacts and regular EIU contributors. In March, we surveyed a panel of more than 1,600 executives in 54 countries; half were CEOs, CFOs and other C-level executives. 22

23 Notes More than 800 global companies would qualify for the Fortune 1000 based on revenue. Of the 135 RHC respondents, 51% per were C-level executives, 30% were an SVP/VP/Director and 19% headed a business unit or department. 30% of RHC respondents have revenue of US$500m to US$999m; 26% have revenue of US$1b to US$4.9b; and 10% have revenue of more than US$5b. 23

24 Contacts Global Howard Roth Global Real Estate Leader Rick Sinkuler Global Real Estate Markets Leader Christoph Ehrhardt Global Transaction Real Estate Leader Africa Sandile Hlophe Africa Asia-Pacific Maggie Eather China Ross Hamilton Oceania ross.hamilton@au.ey.com Seng Leong Teh Association of Southeast Asian Nations seng-leong.teh@sg.ey.com Satoshi Yamada Japan satoshi.yamada@jp.ey.com Hong Yeol Yoo Korea hong-yeol.yoo@kr.ey.com Canada Ray Drost Canada ray.e.drost@ca.ey.com Europe Olga Arkhangelskaya Russia and CIS olga.arkhangelskaya@ru.ey.com Marco Daviddi Italy, Portugal and Spain marco.daviddi@it.ey.com Tristan Dhondt Belgium and the Netherlands nldhond1@nl.ey.com Fraser Greenshields United Kingdom and Ireland fgreenshields@uk.ey.com Anna Kicinska Central and Southern Europe anna.kicinska@pl.ey.com Paul Larsen Nordics paul.larsen@no.ey.com Emmanuel Picard France, Maghreb and Luxembourg emmanuel.picard@fr.ey.com Christian Schulz-Wulkow Germany, Switzerland and Austria christian.schulz-wulkow@de.ey.com India Randhir Kochhar India randhir.kochhar@in.ey.com Israel Guy Vardi Israel guy.vardi@il.ey.com Latin America Rafael Aguirre Mexico and Central America rafael.aguirre@mx.ey.com Viktor Andrade South America viktor.andrade@br.ey.com Middle East and Northern Africa Yousef Wahbah Middle East and Northern Africa yousef.wahbah@ae.ey.com US Troy Jones US West troy.jones@ey.com Gary Koster US Northeast gary.koster@ey.com Mark Lunt US Southeast mark.lunt@ey.com Mark Molepske US Central mark.molepske@ey.com Mike Straneva US Southwest michael.straneva@ey.com EY Assurance Tax Transactions Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. About EY s Global Real Estate Center Today s real estate sector must adopt new approaches to address regulatory requirements and financial risks, while meeting the challenges of expanding globally and achieving sustainable growth. EY s Global Real Estate Center brings together a worldwide team of professionals to help you succeed a team with deep technical experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The Center works to anticipate market trends, identify the implications and develop points of view on relevant sector issues. Ultimately it enables us to help you meet your goals and compete more effectively EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. DF0184 CSG/GSC2014/ ED 0115 This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice.