Prakash Industries BUY. Performance Highlights. CMP Target Price `81 `124. 3QFY2011 Result Update Steel

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1 3QFY211 Result Update Steel February 11, 211 Prakash Industries Performance Highlights Particulars (` cr) 3QFY11 3QFY1 % chg (yoy) 2QFY11 % chg (qoq) Net sales (9.2) EBITDA (18.6) 91 (21.2) EBITDA margin (%) (569)bp 21.6 (286)bp Net profit (17.6) 71 (23.3) Higher realisation aid top-line growth: For 3QFY211, Prakash Industries (PIL) reported a 6.1% yoy increase in net sales to `382cr due to higher realisations and power and sponge iron sales. In December 21, PIL sold 15MW of power to CSEB at `3.15/unit. During 3QFY211, PIL sold 11kt of sponge iron (nil in 3QFY21). Billet sales increased by 17.3% to 13kt, while wire rod sales declined by 6.6% yoy to 99kt. Average net realisations for sponge iron, billet and wire rod stood at `17,9, `24, and `27,, respectively. Margin impacted due to higher iron ore cost: Raw-material cost during the quarter increased by 22.5% yoy to `239cr due to higher iron ore cost, which stood at `5,5/tonne. Consequently, EBITDA margin contracted by 569bp yoy to 18.8% and EBITDA fell by 18.6% yoy to `72cr. Depreciation increased by 22.7% yoy to `17cr on account of commissioning of new units; however, interest expense declined by 84.5% yoy to `1cr. Thus, net income fell by 17.6% yoy to `54cr. Power expansion delayed, whereas steel expansion put on hold: PIL has delayed the commissioning of the first 125MW unit (5x25MW) to June 211 (earlier January 211). The.2mn-tonne sponge iron expansion has also been delayed by three months to June 211, whereas billet expansion has been put on hold. Outlook and valuation: PIL is currently trading at 4.1x and 3.5x FY211E and FY212E EV/EBITDA, respectively. With increased sponge iron and power capacities, we expect EBITDA to witness strong growth over the coming five years. Furthermore, given the steep decline in the stock price, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of `124 (`25), valuing the stock at 4.5x FY212E EV/EBITDA. A key catalyst for the stock would be commencement of mining operations at the company s Orissa mine. Key financials Y/E March (` cr) FY29 FY21 FY211E FY212E Net sales 1,526 1,568 1,791 2,1 % chg Adj. net profit % chg (4.9) EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) BUY CMP Target Price Investment Period Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code `81 ` months PKI@IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 49.3 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 4.1 FII / NRIs / OCBs 13.5 Indian Public / Others 33.1 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex (13.9) Prakash Ind. (45.1) (58.8) (67.) Bhavesh Chauhan Tel: Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com Pooja Jain Tel: Ext: 6839 pooja.j@angelbroking.com Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Steel 1, / ,729 5,31 PRKI.BO

2 Exhibit 1: 3QFY211 performance Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY11 3QFY1 yoy % 9MFY11 9MFY1 yoy % Net sales ,268 1, Raw material % of net sales Manufacturing expenses (13.9) % of net sales Staff cost % of net sales Other expenditure (5.5) (3.2) % of net sales Total expenditure , % of net sales Operating profit (18.6) (1.) OPM (%) Other operating income EBITDA (18.6) (1.) EBITDA margins (%) Interest 1 6 (84.5) 5 2 (75.7) Depreciation Other income Exceptional items Profit before tax (2.2) % of net sales Tax 2 (99.5) % of PBT Adj. net profit (17.6) % of net sales Result highlights Higher realisation aid top-line growth PIL s net sales increased by 6.1% yoy to `382cr mainly on account of higher realisations. The company undertook production cuts during the quarter as margins were low in the steel and ferro alloy segments. In December 21, PIL sold 15MW of power to Chhattisgarh State Electricity Board (CSEB) at `3.15/unit. Sponge iron production increased by 4.% yoy to 114kt. PIL sold 11kt of sponge iron in 3QFY211 (nil in 3QFY21). Billet sales during the quarter increased by 17.3% to 13kt, while wire rod sales declined by 6.6% yoy to 99kt. Ferro alloy production fell by 3.5% yoy to 8,91 tonnes, while sales declined by 36.5% yoy to 6,16 tonnes. During the quarter, average net realisations for sponge iron, billet and wire rod stood at `17,9, `24, and `27,, respectively. February 11, 211 2

3 Exhibit 2: Production volume (tonnes) 3QFY1 4QFY1 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 yoy % qoq % Sponge iron 81,663 19,573 95, 13, , Billet 132,96 139, , , ,986 (1.7) (12.7) Structural steel 6,139 3,26 9, Wire rod 19,2 17,83 114, 112,944 1,99 (7.4) (1.6) Ferro alloy 11,646 12,258 11,53 1,951 8,91 (3.5) (26.1) Power (mn units) Exhibit 3: Sales volume (tonnes) 3QFY1 4QFY1 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 yoy % qoq % Billets 11,89 5,236 9, 18, 13, (27.7) Structural steel 4,439 28,643 1, Wire rod 15,511 19, , 111, 98,598 (6.6) (11.2) Ferro alloy 9,699 8,932 9,3 8,5 6,16 (36.5) (27.5) Margin impacted by higher iron ore cost Raw-material cost increased by 22.5% yoy to `239cr due to higher iron ore cost, which stood at `5,5/tonne. As a result, EBITDA margin contracted by 569bp yoy to 18.8%, which led to EBITDA declining by 18.6% yoy to `72cr. Depreciation cost increased by 22.7% yoy to `17cr on account of commissioning of new units; however, interest expense declined by 84.5% yoy to `1cr. Effective tax rate was almost nil as PIL was entitled for MAT credit on account of power sales. Thus, net income fell by 17.6% yoy to `54cr during the quarter. Exhibit 4: EBITDA margin trend Exhibit 5: Net profit trend (`cr) (%) (`cr) (5) (1) (15) (2) (%) 2QFY1 3QFY1 4QFY1 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 2QFY1 3QFY1 4QFY1 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS) Adj. Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS) February 11, 211 3

4 Key concall takeaways The average cost of purchased iron ore during the quarter was `5,5/tonne. PIL incurred capex of `45cr in 9MFY211. For the next four years, the company plans to spend `6cr per year to fund its expansion projects. Net debt at the end of the quarter stood at `1cr. During 2QFY211, PIL had received the mining plan approval for its Sirkaguttu iron ore mine in Orissa. The company expects to receive forest and environmental clearance by 2HCY211. PIL witnessed exceptionally low demand for steel in 3QFY211. Hence, the company cut its steel production and instead sold power to CSEB at an average rate of `3.15/unit. Nevertheless, steel price products rose by ~25% during December 21 January 211 and iron ore prices rose by 15% in January 211. Merchant power rates have also increased in the past one month. PIL has delayed the commissioning of the first 125MW unit (5x25MW) to June 211 (earlier January 211). The.2mn-tonne sponge iron expansion has also been delayed by three months to June 211, whereas billet expansion has been put on hold. Two units of 1MW each are expected to come on stream by March 212 and March 213, respectively. Investment rationale Expanding capacity to address imbalance and enhance integration levels: Currently, PIL sources ~3% of its sponge iron requirement from third parties. In its bid to reduce this dependence on external parties, PIL is expanding its sponge iron capacity from.6mn tonnes to.8mn tonnes by FY212. Net long on power from FY212: PIL is expanding its power capacity from 1MW to 775MW by March 215E. The company is setting up a 625MW coal-based power plant, with each unit being set up in 12 months starting from 1HFY212. The company will have a surplus of 4MW in FY212, which the company plans to sell in the merchant power market. Captive iron ore production to aid margin growth: During 2QFY211, PIL received the mining plan approval for its Sirkaguttu iron ore mine in Orissa. The company expects to receive forest and environmental clearance quickly by 2HCY211, as clearance is required from the state government only. The company will steadily move towards a fully integrated business model with the grant of new iron ore and coal mines along with the existing Chotia coal mine, thus improving margins drastically. We expect EBITDA per tonne to improve by `3, 4, after it commences iron ore production. February 11, 211 4

5 Outlook and valuation PIL is currently trading at 4.1x and 3.5x FY211E and FY212E EV/EBITDA, respectively. On P/B basis, it is trading at.6x and.5x FY211E and FY212E, respectively. With increased sponge iron and power capacities, we expect EBITDA to witness strong growth over the coming five years. Furthermore, given the steep decline in the stock price, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised Target Price of `124 (earlier `25), valuing the stock at 4.5x FY212E EV/EBITDA. A key catalyst for the stock would be commencement of mining operations at PIL s Orissa mine. We have lowered our production and sales estimates to factor in the delay in expanding the sponge iron capacity. Further, we have raised our 4QFY211 and FY212 realisation estimates as we now build in higher product prices. Overall, our net sales estimates stand lower for FY211 and FY212. Also, we have lowered our profitability estimates for FY212 as we expect raw-material prices to remain firm during FY212. Exhibit 6: Change in estimates (` cr) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Upgrade/(downgrade) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Net sales 2,68 2,432 1,791 2,1 (13.4) (17.7) EBITDA (17.4) (18.1) EBITDA margin (%) (1)bp (1)bp PBT (18.3) (17.9) Net income (18.3) (17.9) Net margin (%) (94)bp (4)bp Exhibit 7: EPS Angel forecast v/s consensus Year (`) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%) FY211E (1.2) FY212E (8.9) Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research February 11, 211 5

6 Exhibit 8: EV/EBITDA band 8, (` cr) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Apr-2 Apr-3 Apr-4 Apr-5 Apr-6 Apr-7 Apr-8 Apr-9 Apr-1 14x 11x 8x 5x 2x Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 9: P/E band (`) Apr-4 Apr-5 Apr-6 Apr-7 Apr-8 Apr-9 Apr-1 2x 15x 1x 5x Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 1: P/BV band 7 (`) x 3x 2x 1x Apr-2 Apr-3 Apr-4 Apr-5 Apr-6 Apr-7 Apr-8 Apr-9 Apr-1 Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research February 11, 211 6

7 Exhibit 11: Recommendation summary Companies CMP Target Price Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) (`) (`) (` cr) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E SAIL Accumulate 65, Tata Steel Buy 57, JSW Steel 859 1,47 Buy 21, Bhushan Steel Accumulate 8, Godawari Power Buy Sarda Energy Buy Prakash Ind Buy 1, Monnet Ispat Neutral 2, February 11, 211 7

8 Profit & Loss Statement Y/E March (` cr) FY27 FY28 FY29 FY21 FY211E FY212E Gross sales 1,49 1,42 1,71 1,691 1,968 2,171 Less: Excise duty Net sales 933 1,254 1,526 1,568 1,791 2,1 Other operating income Total operating income 933 1,254 1,526 1,568 1,791 2,1 % chg Total expenditure ,228 1,213 1,425 1,493 Net raw materials ,94 1,168 Other mfg costs Personnel Other EBITDA % chg (% of Net sales) Depreciation EBIT % chg (% of Net sales) Interest charges Other income (% of PBT) Share in profit of asso Recurring PBT % chg (4.8) Extra. Inc/(Expense) 24 (9) 6 (2) - - PBT (reported) Tax (% of PBT) PAT (reported) Add: Earnings of asso Less: Minority interest Extra. Expense/(Inc.) PAT after MI (reported) ADJ. PAT % chg (4.9) (% of Net sales) Basic EPS (`) Fully Diluted EPS (`) % chg (4.9) 12.3 (4.5) 37.1 February 11, 211 8

9 Balance Sheet Y/E March (` cr) FY27 FY28 FY29 FY21 FY211E FY212E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity share capital Reserves & surplus ,244 1,712 2,92 Shareholders funds ,29 1,366 1,851 2,231 Share warrants Minority interest Total loans Deferred tax liability (78) () Total liabilities 1,93 1,37 1,38 1,738 2,323 2,93 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross block 1,341 1,384 1,524 1,783 2,533 3,133 Less: Acc. depreciation Net Block ,75 1,757 2,259 Capital work-inprogress Goodwill Investments Current assets Cash Loans & advances Other Current liabilities Net current assets Mis. exp. not written off Total assets 1,93 1,37 1,38 1,738 2,323 2,93 February 11, 211 9

10 Cash flow statement Y/E March (` cr) FY27 FY28 FY29 FY21 FY211E FY212E Profit before tax Depreciation Change in working capital 6 (11) 31 (4) (49) (43) Less: Other income 17 (38) (8) (25.6) - - Direct taxes paid Cash flow from operations (Inc.)/ Dec. in fixed assets (73) (169) (233) (32) (65) (72) (Inc.)/ Dec. in investments (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans and advances - (2) () Other income (25) Cash flow from investing (98) (167) (23) (317) (65) (72) Issue of equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans (98) (66) (92) Dividend paid Others (16) Cash flow from financing (82) 69 (92) Inc./(Dec.) in cash 75 (53) 7 (2) (85) Opening cash bal Closing cash bal February 11, 211 1

11 Key ratios Y/E March FY27 FY28 FY29 FY21 FY211E FY212E Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book value DuPont analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of debt (post tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (gross block) Inventory (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest coverage February 11,

12 Research Team Tel: Website: DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Prakash Industries 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) February 11,

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