Hong Kong Assured Lives Mortality and Critical Illness Experience Study

Transcription

1 The Actuarial Society of Hong Kong Hong Kong Assured Lives Mortality and Critical Illness Experience Study Prepared by the Experience Committee of the Actuarial Society of Hong Kong Presented by Daisy Ning FSA, RGA Reinsurance Company Tinny Tsun FSA, RGA Reinsurance Company November 29, 2010

2 Agenda Overview & Background Summary of Data Mortality Experience Critical Illness Experience Cause of Claim Study Lapse/Surrender Experience Acknowledgement Questions 2

3 Overview The study was conducted by the Experience Committee of the Actuarial Society of Hong Kong 23 insurance companies in Hong Kong have participated Objectives: To review the industry s mortality and critical illness experience using recent data. As a continuing project for the Experience Committee. 3

4 Background Data was collected from 23 HK life insurance companies Study Period: 1/1/ /31/2006 This study examined the mortality and CI experience on business issued on full underwriting and simplified issue basis Group policies and substandard cases were excluded Data was validated for reasonableness HKA01 mortality table was used to calculate the actual/expected ratios SOA experience tool was used to calculate the exposures and expected results 4

5 Participating Companies American International Assurance Co Ltd Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A. Aviva Life Insurance Co Ltd Blue Cross (Asia-Pacific) Insurance Ltd BOC Group Life Assurance Co Ltd CIGNA Worldwide Life Insurance Co Ltd China Life Insurance (Overseas) Company Ltd Dah Sing Life Assurance Co Ltd Fortis Insurance Company (Asia) Ltd Hang Seng Insurance Co Ltd Hong Kong Life Insurance Ltd HSBC Life (International) Ltd ING Life Insurance Co (Bermuda) Ltd Manulife (International) Ltd MassMutual Asia Ltd Metropolitan Life Insurance Company of Hong Kong Ltd New York Life Insurance Worldwide Ltd Principal Insurance Co (HK) Ltd Prudential Assurance Co Ltd Standard Life (Asia) Ltd Sun Life Hong Kong Ltd Transamerica Life Insurance Co Zurich Life Insurance Company Limited 5

6 Summary of Data Age 0 to 100 (Age last birthday) Gender Male, female, unknown Smoking status non-smoker, smoker, aggregate/unknown Duration 0, 1 and 2+ Non-medical, medical, simplified, unknown 6

7 Volume of Data All Life Volume of Data Inforce Exposures Deaths Gender ASHK08 ASHK03 ASHK08 ASHK03 Males 11,339,608 6,647,148 13,558 7,939 Females 11,545,129 6,392,732 7,757 4,006 Total 22,884,737 13,039,880 21,315 11,945 All CI Volume of Data Inforce Exposures CI Claims Gender ASHK08 ASHK03 ASHK08 ASHK03 Males 2,489,527 1,793,295 2,850 1,865 Female 3,188,186 2,186,571 4,840 2,802 Total 5,677,714 3,979,866 7,690 4,667 7

8 Exposure Distributions 8

9 Exposure Distributions 9

10 Average Sum Assured 10

11 Mortality Experience

12 Actual to Expected 12

13 Actual to Expected 13

14 Year by Year Results - Mortality Life Only, Duration 2+ Year A/E Lives A/E Amounts % 78% % 80% % 73% % 77% % 57% % 71% 14

15 Claim Lag 15

16 Selection Effect Life Only Gender Duration ASHK08 Dur 0/2+ A/E Lives Lives ASHK03 Dur 0/2+ A/E Lives Lives Males 0 41% 53% 44% 50% 1 62% 80% 69% 78% 2+ 77% 88% Females 0 31% 39% 28% 32% 1 50% 64% 55% 62% 2+ 78% 88% 16

17 Smoker Differentials 17

18 Underwriting Methods Life Only Underwriting Method Actual Claims A/E Lives Medical 6,982 67% Non-Medical 16,699 74% Simplified Issue % Unknown 2,020 63% Majority of the SI claims are from one company No information on the data submitted or how they categorized simplified issues SI results might be distorted so readers should be cautious when using the figures. 18

19 Critical Illness Experience

20 Critical Illness Claim Rate by Age Band 20

21 Results Comparing with ASHK03 All CI Male Female ASHK08 ASHK03 % Diff ASHK08 ASHK03 % Diff Age standardized CI rates per mille % % Crude rates per mille % % A/E ratio (compare to HKA01) 105% 109% 96% 235% 228% 103% 21

22 Year by Year Results Critical Illness All CI Males, Duration 2+ Females, Duration 2+ Year A/E Lives A/E Amounts A/E Lives A/E Amounts % 113% 255% 284% % 96% 229% 252% % 110% 248% 251% % 106% 237% 254% % 99% 217% 232% % 104% 235% 252% 22

23 Claim Lag 23

24 Selection Effect All CI Gender Duration ASHK08 Dur 0/2+ A/E Lives Lives ASHK03 Dur 0/2+ A/E Lives Lives Male 0 85% 81% 84% 77% 1 106% 101% 104% 95% % 109% Female 0 172% 73% 173% 76% 1 248% 105% 218% 96% % 228% 24

25 Smoker Differentials 25

26 Underwriting Methods Underwriting Method All CI Male Actual Claims A/E Lives Female Actual Claims A/E Lives Medical % % Non-Medical 2, % 3, % Simplified Issue 24 92% % Unknown % % Majority of the SI claims are from one company Exposures are too little so data is not credible SI results might be distorted so readers should be cautious when using the figures. 26

27 Cause of Claim Study

28 Cause of Claim - Mortality * About 5% of unknown cause of claims had been excluded 28

29 Cause of Claim Mortality * About 5% of unknown cause of claims had been excluded 29

30 Cause of Claim Critical Illness * About 5% of unknown cause of claims had been excluded 30

31 Cause of Claim Critical Illness * About 5% of unknown cause of claims had been excluded 31

32 Lapse/Surrender Experience

33 Implied Rate of Exit by Duration Life Only A/E Lives A/E Amounts A/E Lives A/E Amounts Year Duration 0 Duration 0 Duration 1+ Duration % 14% 10% 9% % 13% 7% 7% % 9% 6% 6% % 10% 5% 5% Life + CI A/E Lives A/E Amounts A/E Lives A/E Amounts Year Duration 0 Duration 0 Duration 1+ Duration % 17% 11% 11% % 15% 9% 9% % 13% 7% 7% % 11% 6% 6% 33

34 Acknowledgement All the Participating Companies who had contributed their data for the study. Special thanks to the Experience Committee who had spent considerable time and effort to complete this study. Credit to the SOA experience study tool. Thanks to the Audience who came to this evening talk. 34

35 Questions? Q & A 35