Risk-based land use planning

Transcription

1 Risk-based land use planning Wendy Saunders, James Beban, Margaret Kilvington, Independent Social Research

2 What is risk based planning? Not new Developed as part of PhD Envirolink Tools funding to further develop Policy and consents Consequences driven assessment approach Risk engagement based on international good practice in risk communication

3 Five step process 1. Know your hazard 2. Determine severity of consequences 3. Evaluate likelihood of event 4. Risk-based approach to policy and resource consents 5. Monitoring & Evaluation

4 Step 1 Know your Hazard Scope scale & timing of planning decision Identify team & resources needed Identify key stakeholders, likely conflict, issues of trust Review available hazard information, identify gaps, uncertainties and assumptions Assess complexity of hazard/risk situation Assess existing hazard & risk perceptions Review and decide on public engagement approach Begin internal communication strategy (political representatives etc. & external notification (first level communication) Step 5 Monitor & Evaluate Evaluate risk reduction effectiveness Evaluate acceptance of control options, residual risks & long term outcomes Evaluate communication & engagement strategy Step 2 Determine severity of consequences Undertake consequences analysis Validate & update hazard information with stakeholders Record decisions and assumptions for transparency. Step 4 Take risk-based approach Determine levels of risk for policy Determine consent categories based on quantitative levels of risk Identify & consider assessment criteria Identify & consider risk mitigation options Validate with stakeholders & ground truth for perverse outcomes Step 3 Evaluate likelihood of event Assess the likelihood of single and cumulative hazard events Record decisions and assumptions for transparency

5 Why is risk-based planning important? Current approach is resulting in increased risk Learning from Christchurch? Proposed RMA changes

6 Step 1: Know your hazard Will inform policy, sets a baseline level of risk Tasks: Scope scale & timing of planning decision Identify team & resources needed Review available hazard information, identify gaps, uncertainties and assumptions Assess complexity of hazard/risk situation Information management

7 Step 2: Determine consequences Severity of Impact Built Economic H&S Social/Cultural Buildings Critical Buildings Lifelines Catastrophic (V) Significant irreparable damage to >50% buildings and items of cultural significance within hazard zone >50 % of affected buildings within hazard zone > 25 % of critical facilities within hazard zone unable to function Out of service for > 1 month (affecting > 30,000 people) OR suburbs out of service for > 6 months (affecting < 300 people) 10% of regional GDP > 100 dead > 1000 inj. Major (IV) Significant permanent damage to 25-50% of buildings and items of cultural significance within hazard zone % of affected buildings within hazard zone 25-50% of buildings within hazard zone suffer major damage, functionality compromised Out of service for 1 week 1 month (affecting > 30,000 people) OR suburbs out of service for 6 weeks to 6 months (affecting < 300 p eople) 1-10% of regional GDP dead injured Moderate (III) Temporary damage to 25-50% of buildings and items of cultural significance within hazard zone 10-20% of affected buildings within hazard zone 25-50% of buildings within hazard zone suffer moderate damage but still functional Out of service for 1 day to 1 week (affecting > 30,000 people) OR suburbs out of service for 1 week to 6 weeks (affecting < 300 people) 0.1-1% of regional GDP 1 10 dead injured Minor (II) Minor temporary damage to buildings and items of cultural significance 1-10% of affected buildings within hazard zone All buildings within hazard zone able to fully function, minor damage only. Out of service for 2 hours to 1 day (affecting > 30,000 people) OR suburbs out of service for 1 day to 1 week (affecting < 300 people) % of regional GDP <= 3 dead 1 10 injured Insignificant (I) Repairable minor damage to items of cultural significance. < 1% of affected buildings within hazard zone No damage within hazard zone, fully functional Out of service for up to 2 hours (affecting > 30,000 people) OR suburbs out of service for up to 1 day (affecting < 300 people) <0.01% of regional GDP No dead No injuries

8 Step 3: Evaluate likelihood 5 Almost certain 4 Likely 3 Possible 2 Unlikely 1 Rare

9 Likelihood table Level Descriptor Description Indicative frequency 5 Almost certain The event will occur on a regular basis Up to once every 10 years 4 Likely The event has occurred several times or more in your lifetime 3 Possible The event might occur once in your lifetime 2 Unlikely The event does occur somewhere from time to time 1 Rare Possible but not expected to occur except in exceptional circumstances Once every years Once every years Once every ,000 years 10,001 years plus

10 Step 4: Determining levels of risk - policy Consequences Likelihood Risk Level of risk 1-9 Acceptable Tolerable Intolerable

11 Step 4: Determining levels of risk - consents Consequences Likelihood Risk Level of risk Consent 1-4 Acceptable Permitted 5-9 Acceptable Controlled Tolerable Restricted Discretionary Tolerable Discretionary Intolerable Non complying, prohibited

12 Determining levels of risk policy & consents Consequences Likelihood I II III IV V Likelihood Risk Level of risk Consent 5 Almost certain 1-4 Acceptable Permitted 4 Likely 5-9 Acceptable Controlled 3 Possible Tolerable Restricted Discretionary 2 Unlikely Tolerable Discretionary 1 Rare Intolerable Non complying, prohibited

13 Step 5: Monitor & review Evaluate risk reduction effectiveness Policies Consents Evaluate acceptance of control options, residual risks & long term outcomes

14 Summary RMA may soon require natural hazard risks to be considered in s6 Framework for implementing risk-based planning Community engagement in the process essential Toolkit available August 2013 Contact for more information