Risk Adjusted Episodes as Benchmarks for ACOs: A Society of Actuaries Sponsored Study
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1 Risk Adjusted Episodes as Benchmarks for ACOs: A Society of Actuaries Sponsored Study Presented by Bill O Brien, FSA, MAAA Consulting Actuary Milliman Houston, TX (832) Preconference I
2 Agenda Quick Overview - What s Driving ACOs? Strategy, Strategy, Strategy Physician Group Practices Hospital Systems Preserving FFS Revenues alongside ACOs Which way will the balance tip? SOA Research Project on Accountable Care Organizations 2 October 26, 2012
3 What s driving ACOs? Accountable Care Act CMS Shared Savings Program (MSSP) CMMI Pioneer ACO Pursued mainly by physician group practices Overall shift from FFS to Value/Population-based payments that include adjustments for Quality Outcomes Bundled Payments Gain Sharing Arrangements Capitations 3 October 26, 2012
4 Differing Incentives: Hospitals vs. Physicians One Party s Savings = Another s lost Revenue Physicians Physicians primary driver of savings from hospitals Little lost revenue until near well managed New Revenue Stream opportunity Hospital savings Can be used to finance practice improvements in efficiency CMS offering partial up-front payments for small, rural practices Vast Majority of MSSPs are physician organizations Options that offer upside risk only 4 October 26, 2012
5 Differing Incentives: Hospitals vs. Physicians Hospitals One Party s Savings = Another s lost Revenue Most early Savings come from reduced hospital margins Creates conflicting incentives for FFS vs. Population-based Consensus Change is happening now and accelerating into 2014 Hospitals would need >75% of savings to replace lost margin contributions from eliminated services There is no status quo option FFS may soon be a casualty of high costs, reform Dangers: Moving too quickly before fixed costs are reduced Moving too slowly and being shut out of ACO networks, payers Physicians create an ACO and cut out the hospital 5 October 26, 2012
6 Differing Incentives: Hospitals vs. Physicians Hospital Responses Buying strategic physician practices Primary Care, Hospital-based physicians Medicare Reimbursement opportunities (e.g. Oncology) Partnering/Merging with other hospital systems Everyone is talking to Everyone Bundled Services or Capitations Controlling the revenue Requires discounting current and future services Starting an HMO Insert themselves higher in the revenue stream HMO margins offset some lost Hospital margins 6 October 26, 2012
7 Initial Population Targets Hospital system employee health plan Generally self funded; Savings (mostly) accrue to system Medicare Advantage Product simplicity Large portion of patient populations High potential for savings Medicaid Managed Care Savings offset low unit reimbursements Commercial & ASO/TPA Revenue to cover administrative costs of other products Preparation for exchanges 7 October 26, 2012
8 Balancing Act FFS payments still dominant Optimistically, may be 50% at-risk in 2-3 years Some services, specialties don t bundle easily Many providers not pursuing risk strategies preserve FFS Spillover Effect Improved Efficiency = Services eliminated = Poor FFS performance Physician Compensation Must promote/reward conflicting goals Reduced costs per episode of care Increased quality and outcome measures Increased patient services volume (FFS) 8 October 26, 2012
9 SOA Research Launched April, 2012 Multiple Milliman offices participating Goal: To develop tools and methods to help ACOs achieve and measure financial success Take episode of care analytics to next level Risk adjusted costs and utilization by service type Scheduled Publication in late October 26, 2012
10 SOA Research Approach: Risk adjust Episode of Care cost and utilization experience High-cost or avoidable service utilization Total costs by major service type (IP, OP, Pharma, Physic) Develop a financial model to estimate potential savings within Episode types, as ACO care efficiency improves; Reflect variation due to population size Develop methods for evaluating ACO results based on annual claims data. 10 October 26, 2012
11 ACO Episode Risk-Adjustment Study Entire 3 Million Population Aggregate Costs by Episode Type DRAFT Episode Type: Episodes per Thousand Member per Year Normalized Allowed Cost per Episode PMPM Asthma 41.0 $ 1,104.0 $ 3.52 Cerebral Vascular Disease 3.0 $ 8,059.0 $ 1.88 Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease 6.0 $ 2,384.0 $ 1.11 Congestive Heart Failure 2.0 $ 6,103.0 $ 0.95 Diabetes 40.0 $ 2,391.0 $ 7.44 Hyperlipidemia 68.0 $ $ 2.92 Hypertension $ $ 7.27 Ischemic Heart Disease 13.0 $ 8,742.0 $ 8.84 Joint Degeneration, localized - back 33.0 $ 3,715.0 $ 9.54 Pregnancy with Delivery 13.0 $ 12,798.0 $ Risk Adjusted Episodes $ 2,191.1 $ October 26, 2012
12 SOA Research Utilization Metrics for Risk Adjustment Medical/Surgical Hospital inpatient admissions Avoidable Emergency Room Visits Advance Imaging Services (CT, MRI, PET Scans) Physician Office Visits (Primary & Specialty) 12 October 26, 2012
13 SOA Research Cost per Episode Metrics for Risk Adjustment Total All Services Inpatient Costs Outpatient Costs Physician/Other Costs Pharmacy Costs 13 October 26, 2012
14 Episode: Ischemic Heart Disease Service Type Utilization per Thousand Episodes Normalized Allowed Cost per Unit within Episode Cost Per Episode Raw Units Risk Adj Days/Unit Days Unit per Day Raw Risk Adj Inpatient Med/Surg Admissions XX XX X X $X $X X Other Inpatient X X X $X $X X Total Inpatient X X X $X $X $XX $XX Outpatient Avoidable ER Visits XX XX $XX $XX Advanced Imaging XX XX $XX $XX ER - Urgent X X X OP Surgery X X X Radiology - General X X X Pathology X X X Therapies X X X Other Outpatient X Total Outpatient $XX $XX Professional/Other Office Visits XX XX X X ER Visits X X X Consults X X X Inpatient Surgery X X X Outpatient Surgery X X X Inpatient Visits X X X Preventive Services X X X Pathology X X X Radiology X X X Physical Therapy X X X Cardiovascular X X X Durable Medical Equip X X X Home Health X X X Other Pro/Other X Total Pro/Other $XX $XX Pharmacy Branded Drugs X X X X X X Non-Branded Drugs X X X X X X Total Pharmacy X X X X X $XX $XX Total Total All Services $XX $XX 14 October 26, 2012
15 Episode: Ischemic Heart Disease Population Full Market Scan Sample Service Type Measure Unit Mean Percentiles Raw/ Risk Adjusted 25th 50th 75th 90th 95th 99th Inpatient Med/Surg Admissions per Thousand Episodes Total Inpatient Costs Cost per Episode Outpatient Avoidable ER Visits per Thousand Episodes Advanced Imaging Total Outpatient per Thousand Episodes Cost per Episode Professional/Other Office Visits per Thousand Episodes Total Pro/Other Cost per Episode Pharmacy Branded Drugs Percentage Non-Branded Drugs Total Pharmacy Percentage Cost per Episode Total Total All Services Cost per Episode 15 October 26, 2012
16 QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION 16 October 26, 2012
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