Assessing The Impact of Climate Change On U.S. Municipal Ratings
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1 Assessing The Impact of Climate Change On U.S. Municipal Ratings Kurt Forsgren Managing Director and Sector Leader US Public Finance Ratings +1 (617) Copyright 2018 by S&P Global. All rights reserved.
2 Agenda 1. Overview of S&P Global Ratings View on Climate Change 2. Corporate's Approach to Assessing Climate Change Risk 3. How Climate Change Risks Factor into Municipal Ratings 4. Importance of Issue to Key Stakeholders 5. Conclusion
3 S&P Global Ratings View on Climate Change
4 Overview of USPF and climate change Episodic weather events increasingly are viewed through the lens of climate change risk. Municipal issuers face climate change risks on two fronts: 1. Growing cost of extreme weather events 2. Gradual changes to the environment affecting land use, employment, and economic activity Source: NASA Global Climate Change
5 Impacts to Date $240 billion a year at least in damage from In 2016 there were 15 climate related disasters that cost $1 billion or more; 16 disasters in Graphic excludes Hurricanes like Maria and 76 wildfires in US in 4Q cumulative losses estimated at record $300 billion.
6 Projected Impacts Estimated $360 billion a year in climate change related events over next decade Coastal and southern states will be hit the hardest Damage is expected to be due to a combination of severe climate events and long-term environmental changes Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States Solomon Hsiang, Robert Kopp, Amir Jina, James Rising, Michael Delgado, Shashank Mohan, D. J. Rasmussen, Robert Muir-Wood, Paul Wilson, Michael Oppenheimer, Kate Larsen, Trevor Houser
7 Importance of These Issues to State and Local governments and to Investors Important to all issuers but more so to those at greater risk States are recognizing the importance of this and are taking steps to manage their risk Investors will begin looking more and more to the climate change preparedness of states in assessing overall risk Issuers Most important to those in Investors
8 Corporate's Approach to Assessing Climate Change Risk
9 Assessing Climate Change Risk in the Private Sector 717 ratings in which E&C risks were an important factor in the analysis ~10% of the nearly 9,000 research updates The majority were in oil, mining, and utility sectors.
10 Rating Actions Taken Due to E&C Risk Of these 106 research updates that listed a E&C as a key driver to the rating change: 41% were downgrades 44% were in the positive direction 56% being in the negative direction
11 How Climate Change Risks Factor into Municipal Ratings
12 Sources of Information/Disclosures Currently limited disclosures by municipals on E&C risks/mitigation plans Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) provides outline of recommended disclosures Eleven recommendations sorted into four focus areas: Governance, Strategy, Risk Management, and Metrics/Targets
13 Factoring climate change risk into ratings Overall focus on management effectiveness and planning Sectors have unique E&C risks that apply to their assets or revenue sources Often a qualitative assessment when lacking detailed information Municipal Sector Sector Specific E&C Factors Water/Sew er Utilities Electric Utilities State/Local/Municipal Enterprises All Sectors Drought planning Carbon Fuel Concentration Financial and Capital planning Potential impacts to property values
14 Assessing Municipal Resiliency Positive Resiliency considerations: Long-term management plans with adequately funded emergency funds Proper insurance coverage for the climate related risks for the region Deeper and more diverse economies Resilience is the ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from the effects of a potentially hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, restoration, or improvement of its essential basic structures. -IPCC 2012
15 How Rating and Outlook Time Horizons Align with Long-term Climate Change Risks? We assess credits on a forward looking basis < 2 years for speculative grade ( BB+ and below) < 5 years for investment grade ( BBB- and above) Many climate-related risks extend far beyond our credit ratings/outlooks Climate related policy will only be factored in when policy action is highly likely 15
16 Conclusion Climate Change will be increasingly considered in our rating analysis. Challenges remain with time horizon matching and disclosure of information Opportunities exist for municipal entities to mitigate climate change risk through proper planning and improving system resiliency
17 Q&A Reminder: you can submit questions to Kurt via the interface in the webcast window.
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