Future Fit Risk Engineering 2017 Global Risk Engineering Conference

Transcription

1 Future Fit Risk Engineering 2017 Global Risk Engineering Conference

2 Autonomous vehicles

3 What are the main underlying root causes of crashes?

4 The main causes of crashes Speed Fatigue Impairment Distraction 4

5 Where do crashes occur?

6 Fatalities by road type 7% 38% 55% CARE (EU road accidents database) or national publications. Last update: May

7 Who is being injured in crashes?

8 2,958 injuries 71 fatalities Other 46% 22% 18% 8% 6% CARE (EU road accidents database) or national publications. Last update: May

9 What collision types are generating the claims costs?

10 UK Insurance data Claim type % 0-10 MPH MPH MPH 50+ MPH Parking Low Medium High Car rear to rear 32% 1,550M 550M 350M Junction 15% 750M 400M Single vehicle 15% 400M 350M 250M 150M Reversing 9% 700M Head on 6% 100M 350M Parking 4% 350M Vulnerable road user 4% 100M 250M Lane change 4% 50M 200M Other 10% 250M 200M 150M 100M Total 1,700M 2,200M 2,100M 1,150M Source: Thatcham modelling using member data & UK EDR data 10

11 What are Advanced Driver Assistance Systems?

12 ADAS video 12

13 ADAS availability in the UK All new cars on sale New cars launched Not available Optional Standard Source Thatcham research 13

14 Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB)

15 AEB mitigation effect on rear end collisions 60% 50% Severe Moderate Cosmetic 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source Thatcham research 15

16 Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) Research shows that 75% of all collisions occur at speeds less than 25mph in so called City driving environments AEB leads to a 38% reduction in real-world rear-end crashes Third party injury claims on the Golf VII (with AEB) were 45% lower than its equivalent Source Thatcham research 16

17 UK Insurance data AEB effect? Claim type % 0-10 MPH MPH MPH 50+ MPH Parking Low Medium High Car rear to rear 32% 1,550M 550M 350M Junction 15% 750M 400M Single vehicle 15% 400M 350M 250M 150M Reversing 9% 700M Head on 6% 100M 350M Parking 4% 350M Vulnerable road user 4% 100M 250M Lane change 4% 50M 200M Other 10% 250M 200M 150M 100M Total 1,700M 2,200M 2,100M 1,150M Source: Thatcham modelling using member data & UK EDR data 17

18 UK Insurance data other ADAS effect? Claim type % 0-10 MPH MPH MPH 50+ MPH Parking Low Medium High Car rear to rear 32% 1,550M 550M 350M Junction 15% 750M 400M Single vehicle 15% 400M 350M 250M 150M Reversing 9% 700M Head on 6% 100M 350M Parking 4% 350M Vulnerable road user 4% 100M 250M Lane change 4% 50M 200M Other 10% 250M 200M 150M 100M Total 1,700M 2,200M 2,100M 1,150M Source: Thatcham modelling using member data & UK EDR data 18

19 The move to Self Driving Vehicles (SDVs)

20 Current developments 20

21 Levels of autonomy The role of the vehicle Level 5 Fully autonomous Level 4 Highly autonomous Driver not required in most situations No driver required The vehicle s systems can cope in most situations Level 3 Conditionally autonomous Level 2 Partially autonomous Some monitoring required, and in a position to resume control Monitoring system at all times Longitudinal AND latitudinal control. Performance limits recognised where driver control requested Longitudinal AND latitudinal control in specific situations Level 1 Assisted Longitudinal OR latitudinal control The role of the driver Longitudinal OR latitudinal control 21

22 Current developments 22

23 SDVs what are the challenges?

24 All stakeholders will need to work together Government policymakers and all societal stakeholders Vehicle manufacturing industry, suppliers and associations Vehicle manufacturers and consumer associations Insurers, associations and financial regulators Cost and benefit case for society and economy Technical operating standards Marketing and technical performance Definition of insurance models Field operational trials Currently underway in various countries around the World 24

25 Some challenges Moral/ethical choices: where an autonomous car's intelligence software is forced to choose between multiple courses of action, all of which cause harm. Ethical machines? Software / sensor / system reliability. Cyber Security: a car's computer could potentially be compromised, as could a communication system between cars. 25

26 Some challenges Drivers being inexperienced if situations arose requiring manual driving. Terrorism/Criminality: Driverless cars could potentially used by terrorists or other criminals e.g. they could be loaded with explosives and used as autonomous bombs. Ethical machines? 26

27 Future mobility

28 What does your future fleet look like?

29 Societal benefits of Self Driving vehicles Autonomous vehicles predominate 8% 23% 55% Vehicles Emissions Crashes Self-driving taxis predominate 46% 81% 86% Calculations based on model city with tidal-style traffic and approx. 5M inhabitants and 1.34M taxis and private vehicles, modelled over a 10 year horizon; assumes powertrain mix shift for both private vehicles and taxis; Source: World Economic Forum; BCG analysis 29

30 Motor premiums decline by 2040 Moderate disruption Significant disruption 45% 74% Moderate disruption Significant disruption 55% 78% Moderate disruption Significant disruption 40% 66% Source: Morgan Stanley research, BCG analysis. 30

31 The future of motor insurance Declining market Shift to Commercial Lines The future Possible new entrants Growth in emerging markets 31

32 Open forum

33 Summary

34 Zurich Insurance Company Ltd Thank you 34

35 Zurich Insurance Company Ltd The information contained in this document is intended as a general description of certain types of services and insurance covers available to qualified customers. Zurich Insurance Company Ltd or any of its subsidiaries and its employees do not assume any liability of any kind whatsoever, resulting from the use, or reliance upon any of the information contained herein. It does not replace or complement your individual insurance policy, which is the only source for terms and conditions of your respective insurance cover. This is intended as a general description of certain types of services and insurance covers available to qualified customers through subsidiaries within the Zurich Insurance Group Ltd. including, in the United States, Zurich American Insurance Company, 1299 Zurich Way, Schaumburg, Illinois 60196, and, in Canada, Zurich Insurance Company Ltd, 100 King Street West, Toronto ON M5X 1C9, and, outside the US and Canada, Zurich Insurance Plc, Ballsbridge Park, Dublin 4, Ireland (and its EU branches), Zurich Insurance Company Ltd, Mythenquai 2, 8002 Zurich, Zurich Australian Insurance Limited, 5 Blue St., North Sydney, NSW 2060 and further entities, as required by local jurisdiction. 35