Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Insurance Conference. S.A. Ibrahim, CEO NYSE: RDN September 7, 2010

Transcription

1 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Insurance Conference S.A. Ibrahim, CEO NYSE: RDN September 7,

2 Safe Harbor Statements All statements made during today s investor presentation and in these webcast slides that address events, developments or results that we expect or anticipate may occur in the future are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of In most cases, forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as anticipate, may, will, could, should, would, expect, intend, plan, goal, contemplate, believe, estimate, predict, project, potential, continue or the negative or other variations on these words and other similar expressions. These statements, which include, without limitation, projections regarding our future performance and financial condition, are made on the basis of management s current views and assumptions with respect to future events. Any forward-looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance and actual results could differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking information. The forward-looking statements, as well as our prospects as a whole, are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the following: changes in general financial and political conditions, such as the failure or significantly delay of the U.S. economy to recover from the most recent recession or the U.S. economy reentering a recessionary period following a brief period of stabilization or even growth, the lack of meaningful liquidity in the capital markets or in the credit markets, a prolonged period of high unemployment rates and limited home price appreciation or further depreciation, (which has resulted in some borrowers voluntarily defaulting on their mortgages when their mortgage balances exceed the value of their homes), changes or volatility in interest rates or consumer confidence, changes in credit spreads, changes in the way investors perceive the strength of private mortgage insurers or financial guaranty providers, investor concern over the credit quality and specific risks faced by the particular businesses, municipalities or pools of assets covered by our insurance; catastrophic events or further economic changes in geographic regions where our mortgage insurance or financial guaranty insurance is more concentrated; our ability to successfully execute upon our capital plan for our mortgage insurance business (which depends, in part, on the performance of our financial guaranty portfolio), and if necessary, to obtain additional capital to support new business writings in our mortgage insurance business and the long-term liquidity needs of our holding company; a further decrease in the volume of home mortgage originations due to reduced liquidity in the lending market, tighter underwriting standards and the decrease in housing demand throughout the U.S.; our ability to maintain adequate risk-to-capital ratios and surplus requirements in our mortgage insurance business in light of ongoing losses in this business and continued deterioration in our financial guaranty portfolio, which, in the absence of new capital, may depend on our ability to execute strategies for which regulatory and other approvals are required and may not be obtained; our ability to continue to effectively mitigate our mortgage insurance and financial guaranty losses; reduced opportunities for loss mitigation in markets where housing values do not appreciate or continue to decline; changes in the level of future rescissions and claim denials, which have materially mitigated our paid losses and resulted in a significant reduction in our loss reserves; the negative impact our increased levels of insurance rescissions and claim denials may have on our relationships with customers, including the heightened risk of potential disputes and litigation; and, in the event that we are unsuccessful in defending our rescissions or denials, the need to reestablish loss reserves for, and reassume risk on, rescinded and pay additional claims; the concentration of our mortgage insurance business among a relatively small number of large customers; disruption in the servicing of mortgages covered by our insurance policies; the aging of our mortgage insurance portfolio and changes in severity or frequency of losses associated with certain of our products that are riskier than traditional mortgage insurance or financial guaranty insurance policies; the performance of our insured portfolio of higher risk loans, such as Alternative-A ( Alt-A ) and subprime loans, and of adjustable rate products, such as adjustable rate mortgages and interest-only mortgages; 2

3 Safe Harbor Statements (Continued) decrease in persistency rates of our mortgage insurance policies; The impact of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act on the financial services industry in general, and our mortgage insurance and financial guaranty businesses in particular; an increase in the risk profile of our existing mortgage insurance portfolio due to mortgage refinancing in the current housing market; further downgrades or threatened downgrades of, or other ratings actions with respect to, our credit ratings or the ratings assigned by the major rating agencies to any of our rated insurance subsidiaries at any time (in particular, the credit rating of Radian Group Inc. and the financial strength ratings assigned to Radian Guaranty Inc.); heightened competition for our mortgage insurance business from others such as the Federal Housing Administration and the Veterans Administration or other private mortgage insurers (in particular those that have been assigned higher ratings from the major rating agencies or new entrants to the industry); changes in the charters or business practices of Federal National Mortgage Association ( Fannie Mae ) and Freddie Mac, (together, the GSEs ), the largest purchasers of mortgage loans that we insure, and our ability to remain an eligible provider to both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae; changes to the current system of housing finance, including the possibility of a new system in which private mortgage insurers are not required or their services are significantly limited in scope; the application of existing federal or state consumer, lending, insurance, tax, securities and other applicable laws and regulations, or changes in these laws and regulations or the way they are interpreted; including, without limitation: (i) the outcome of existing, or the possibility of additional lawsuits or investigations, and (ii) legislative and regulatory changes (a) affecting demand for private mortgage insurance, (b) limiting or restricting our use of (or requirements for) additional capital, and the products we may offer, or (c) affecting the form in which we may execute credit protection or affecting our existing financial guaranty portfolio; the possibility that we may fail to estimate accurately the likelihood, magnitude and timing of losses in connection with establishing loss reserves for our mortgage insurance or financial guaranty businesses or premium deficiencies for our mortgage insurance business, or to estimate accurately the fair value amounts of derivative instruments in our mortgage insurance and financial guaranty businesses in determining gains and losses on these contracts; the ability of our primary insurance customers in our financial guaranty reinsurance business to provide appropriate surveillance and to mitigate losses adequately with respect to our assumed insurance portfolio; volatility in our earnings caused by changes in the fair value of our derivative instruments and our need to reevaluate the possibility of a premium deficiency in our mortgage insurance business on a quarterly basis; changes in accounting guidance from the SEC or the Financial Accounting Standards Board; and legal and other limitations on amounts we may receive from our subsidiaries as dividends or through our tax-and expense-sharing arrangements with our subsidiaries. For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties as well as certain additional risks that we face, you should refer to the Risk Factors detailed in Item 1A of Part II of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2010 and subsequent reports and registration statements filed from time to time with the SEC. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of today s investor presentation. We do not intend to, and we disclaim any duty or obligation to, update or revise any forward-looking statements made during today s investor presentation or included in these slides to reflect new information or future events or for any other reason. 3

4 Who Is Radian? Overview Radian Group Inc., headquartered in Philadelphia, provides private mortgage insurance and related risk management products and services to mortgage lenders nationwide through its principal operating subsidiary, Radian Guaranty Inc. For more than 30 years, these services have helped promote and preserve homeownership opportunities for homebuyers, while protecting lenders from default-related losses on residential first mortgages and facilitating the sale of low-downpayment mortgages in the secondary market. NYSE: RDN 4

5 Who Is Radian? Segment Overview Mortgage Insurance Radian Guaranty Inc. (B+/Ba3) $4,847.0 million (1)(2) Financial Guaranty Total Statutory Claims Paying Resources Radian Asset Assurance Inc. (BB-/Ba1) $2,406.2 million (1) (1) Amounts as of June 30, 2010 (2) Includes $974.1 million of Financial Guaranty capital. 5

6 Radian is Positioned for Long-term Success Well positioned to capitalize on long-term improvement in industry fundamentals Strengthening MI franchise by writing new, profitable business Anticipating FHA pricing changes in October Financial guaranty business and recent capital raise provide capital support Near-term uncertainties remain for legacy losses and timing of market share recapture from FHA as well as the timing and nature of GSE reform Signs of credit trend stabilization in both MI and FG businesses Two consecutive quarters of declining delinquencies; credit burn-out evident Continue writing high-quality Mortgage Insurance business 6

7 Financial Highlights Radian Group Inc. Consolidated ($ in millions except per share amount) June 30, 2010 December 31, 2009 December 31, 2008 Assets $9,374.5 $8,076.3 $8,116.1 Loss Reserves $3,781.2 $3,579.0 $3,224.5 Unearned Premiums $736.7 $823.6 $916.7 Long Term Debt $665.4 $698.2 $857.8 Stockholders Equity $1,779.6 (1) $2,005.0 $2,030.7 Book Value Per Share $13.40 (1) $24.22 $25.06 Risk to Capital Ratio (Radian Guaranty) 17.9:1 15.4:1 16.4:1 (2) (1) Reflects public offering of 50 million shares of our common stock in May 2010 resulting in additional capital of approximately $526 million after expenses. (2) Beginning June 30, 2009, risk in force on policies currently in default and for which loss reserves have been established are deducted from total risk in force used for our risk to capital calculations. Risk to capital ratios for the prior periods have not been restated to conform with this presentation. 7

8 Net Fair Value Liability of Financial Guaranty Contracts ($ in millions) Balance Sheet NIMs June 30, 2010 FG Derivatives and VIEs Total Trading securities $ - $ 88.1 $ 88.1 Derivative assets Other assets Total assets Derivative liabilities VIE-debt at fair value Accounts payable and accrued expenses Total liabilities , ,361.7 Total fair value net liabilities $ $ $ 1,131.3 Present value of estimated credit loss payments* $ $ $ * Represents the present value of our estimated credit loss payments (net of estimated recoveries) for those transactions where we currently anticipate paying net losses, calculated using a discount rate of approximately 3%, which approximates our current investment yield. At an investment yield of 5%, our total expected credit losses would decrease by approximately $127.8 million to $549.8 million, primarily related to FG derivatives and VIEs. 8

9 First-Lien Domestic Portfolio Projected Net Profit ($ in billions) June 30, 2010 December 31, 2009 Gross Portfolio Losses (1) $8.5 $8.9 Net present value of expected premiums $2.7 $2.8 Net present value of expected losses and expenses (2) $(4.5) $(4.3) Reserve for premiums and losses established, net of reinsurance recoverables $2.9 $2.8 Cumulative Claims Frequency Net projected premium excess $1.1 $1.3 All First-lien (net of denials and rescissions) Primary Only (net of denials and rescissions) ~11.9% ~12.1% ~13.4% ~13.7% (1) Nominal losses prior to rescission and denial estimates, and reinsurance and structuring benefits. (2) Present value after rescission and denial estimates, and reinsurance and structuring benefits. 9

10 MI Transformation: Focused on High Quality New Business 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY H 2010 Prime Alt A A Minus & Below $2.7 billion in new mortgage insurance written (NIW) in 2Q10 Increase from $1.9 billion in Q1; 100% prime credit quality; 79% with FICO of 740 or above; 21% market share Improved pricing environment New business has shown significantly lower early defaults, which is a good indication of sound underwriting practices 10 10

11 Opportunity for Private MI Market to Recapture FHA Share Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Actual Private MI Penetration 6.2% 3.7% 3.5% 2.7% 3.5% 3.6% Estimated incremental penetration for select FHA buckets at 100%: Current MI State FHA 720+ FICO/80-95% LTV 1.4% 1.9% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% Subtotal Potential MI Market (current footprint) Expand LTV: FHA 720+ FICO and > 95% LTV Expand FICO Floor: FHA FICO/80-95% LTV Potential Private MI Penetration (assuming regain 100% incremental FHA) 7.6% 5.6% 6.3% 5.6% 6.4% 6.5% 2.4% 3.5% 5.2% 5.5% 4.7% 6.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 11.1% 10.4% 13.4% 13.1% 13.0% 14.4% Estimated Incremental MI Penetration of 2.9% to 10.8% from FHA FHA currently maintains a much larger share of the insured market than it has historically, including a significant amount of high-fico business We expect to slowly recapture market share as FHA implements new pricing in October 11

12 Credit Enhanced Market: Private MI vs. FHA Share Private MI industry increased share in Q2 MI/FHA Market Segmentation 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 73.5% 78.4% 83.9% 85.4% 85.4% 81.3% 14.6% 18.7% Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 MI FHA Based on actual dollars generated in credit enhanced market only 12

13 Managing the Legacy Portfolio Primary Mortgage Insurance Default Rates by Quarter 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.3% 5.9% 6.8% 7.6% 8.4% 9.7% 12.0% 13.2% 14.8% 17.0% 18.0% 17.6% 17.2% 0.0% Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Primary Total Primary Prime Primary Alt A Primary SubPrime Six consecutive months decline in delinquencies in Expect to pay approximately $1.5 billion in claims for Expect ultimate claims to be reduced by rescissions and claim denials of loans originated in poor underwriting periods of late 2005 through 2008; loan modification programs may provide further benefit. 13

14 Managing the Legacy Portfolio Default Rates for Recent Vintages 30.0% 25.0% % 2H H % 10.0% Wt. Avg % 0.0% # of quarters since origination Second half of 2008 was a turning point in Radian s book, with improved credit performance in that period and thereafter as a result of tightened credit guidelines book has significantly lower early default activity than any previous vintage. 14

15 Total Loss Reserves ($ in millions) $4,000 $3, $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1, , , , ,656.7 $1,000 $500 $ , Q Q 2010 Mortgage Insurance Financial Guaranty Reserves per delinquent loan have increased significantly during

16 Primary Loans in Default Q Q Missed payments # % # % 3 payments or less 25, , payments 50, , payments or more 61, , Total number of loans in default 138, % 143, % Aging of delinquent loans caused by modification efforts and foreclosure moratoriums 16

17 Loss Management Preserving Capital and Protecting Homeownership Alliances and Partnerships Hope Now HOPE LoanPort Special Servicer Partnerships Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Delaware Valley Outreach Implemented face-to-face borrower education and assistance outreach initiative Average of 40,000 letters sent to distressed borrowers each month (60, 90 and 120 days late) Deployed on-site counselors at servicer locations FastAdvance Provides quick, partial claims advances for servicers to assist distressed borrowers in modifying loan terms or structuring a customized payment plan Does not require borrower repayment 17

18 Current Cumulative Rescission Rates By Quarter Claim Received Claim Received Quarter Cumulative Rescission Rate (1) Percentage of Claims Resolved (2) STRUCTURED Q % 100% Q % 100% Q % 100% Q % 99% Q % 98% Q % 96% Q % 93% Q % 75% FLOW Q % 100% Q % 100% Q % 99% Q % 99% Q % 97% Q % 95% Q % 91% Q % 73% TOTAL Q % 100% Q % 100% Q % 99% Q % 99% Q % 97% Q % 95% Q % 92% Q % 74% (1) Rescission rates represent the ratio of claims rescinded or denied to claims received (by claim count) and represent (as of June 30, 2010) the cumulative rate for each quarter based on number of claims received during that quarter. Until all of the claims received during the periods shown have been resolved, the rescission rates for each quarter will be subject to change. (2) For each quarter, represents the number of claims that have been internally resolved as a percentage of the total number of claims received for that specific quarter. A claim is considered internally resolved when it is either paid or it is concluded that the claim should be denied or rescinded. For the first and second quarters of 2010, a significant portion of claims received in those quarters have not been internally resolved; therefore, we do not believe the cumulative rescission rates for those periods are presently meaningful. 18

19 Primary Insurance In Force Default Rollforward June 30, 2010 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 YTD 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Beginning Default Inventory 121, , , , , ,914 Plus: New Defaults 39,449 42,564 39, ,508 32,661 27,749 Less: Cures (20,623) (18,957) (18,875) (86,322) (29,141) (24,984) Less: Claims Paid (including those charged to a deductible or captive) (3,493) (4,623) (5,148) (16,744) (4,828) (6,517) Less: Rescissions and denials (1,865) (1,771) (2,546) (7,422) (2,347) (2,147) Less: Terminations of Modified Pool Transactions * - - (12,575) (12,575) (4,429) - Ending Default Inventory 134, , , , , ,015 * We include modified pool in our primary insurance in force. These transactions had the effect of reducing our primary insurance in force by $7.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009 and $2.6 billion in the first quarter of

20 Financial Guaranty Product Line and Sector Mix $81.3 billion in net par outstanding as of June 30, 2010 Public Finance Structured Finance Sector Dollars (in billions) Percentage Sector Dollars (in billions) Percentage General Obligations $ % Healthcare & Long Term Care Utilities Asset-Backed: Mortgage and MBS CDOs $ % Transportation Education Asset-Backed: Commercial and Other Escrowed Par * Asset-Backed: Consumer Housing Other Public Finance Other Structured Finance Subtotal $ % Subtotal $ % * Represents public finance net par outstanding for legally defeased bond issues where our financial guaranty policy has not been extinguished but cash or treasury securities have been deposited in an escrow account for the benefit of bond holders. The accounting standard regarding accounting for financial guarantee insurance contracts requires that these contracts continue to be accounted for as outstanding contracts despite the elimination of substantially all risk. 20

21 Financial Guaranty CDO Portfolio $40.1 billion Net Par Outstanding as of June 30, 2010 Asset Type Distribution ($ in billions) Total CDO Exposure written on a direct basis is $39.0 billion (97.2% of CDO exposure) Total CDO Exposure within the assumed portfolio is $1.1 billion, representing 334 policies (2.8% of CDO exposure) CDO-Trust Preferred, $2.2, 5.5% CLO-Corporate Loans <$0.01, <0.01% Second-to-Pay CLO Corporate Loans, $0.8, 2.0% Assumed CDOs, $1.1, 2.8% CDO of ABS, $0.5, 1.2% CDO-CMBS, $1.8, 4.5% CDO- Corporate Assets $33.6, 83.8% CDO-Corporate Cash Flow, $0.1, 0.2% 21

22 Financial Guaranty CDO Portfolio Trust Preferred (TruPs) CDO Exposure as of June 30, 2010 ($ in millions) TruPs CDO CDS Scheduled Termination Date TruPs CDO Maturity Date Net Par Outstanding Subordination after defaults Subordination after defaults and deferrals Interest Coverage Ratio June 30, 2010 March 31,2010 June 30, 2010 March 31, /2014 (1) 12/2036 $ % 11.9% 17.7% 142.0% 154.9% 2 10/2014 (1) 7/2037 $ % 23.4% 23.7% 154.6% 169.0% 10/2016 (1) 7/2037 $ % 23.4% 23.7% 154.6% 169.0% 3 11/2014 (1) 9/2037 $ % 28.4% 27.9% 291.4% 282.8% 11/2016 9/2037 $ % 28.4% 27.9% 291.4% 282.8% 4 3/2015 (1) 9/2036 $ % 41.9% 40.5% 170.1% 173.4% 9/2036 9/2036 $ % 41.9% 40.5% 170.1% 173.4% 5 7/2016 (1)(2) 7/2036 $ % 4.7% 7.3% 76.1% 91.8% 6 12/2016 3/2037 $ % 21.0% 22.8% 152.3% 157.8% 7 8/2017 (1) 12/2035 $ % 24.4% 24.0% 167.2% 163.0% 8 12/2017 (1) 6/2036 $ % 26.5% 27.7% 202.1% 197.0% 6/2036 6/2036 $ % 26.5% 27.7% 202.1% 197.0% 9 1/2033 1/2033 $ % 47.3% 46.8% 299.6% 239.4% 10 9/2033 9/2033 $ % 37.8% 36.2% 422.1% 416.2% 11 12/ /2033 $ % 34.5% 34.3% 340.7% 356.7% 12 10/ /2034 $ % 31.5% 31.4% 350.4% 428.8% 13 9/2035 9/2035 $ % 32.3% 32.3% 146.8% 146.6% 14 12/ /2036 $ % 36.5% 36.8% 352.1% 368.3% 15 12/ /2037 $ % 17.5% 20.2% 113.5% 117.4% 16 10/ /2040 $ % 27.9% 26.5% 170.3% 193.0% $ 2,160.4 (1) Our counterparties under these contracts may require that we pay them the outstanding par on our insured obligations if a CDO event of default exists on the scheduled CDS termination date. (2) This TruPs CDO experienced an interest shortfall in October 2009, which constitutes an event of default pursuant to the related indenture. 22

23 Financial Guaranty CDO Portfolio CMBS Exposure as of June 30, 2010 ($ in millions) Par Outstanding Radian Asset Attachment- Detachment Points (1) Total # of Reference Obligations Size of Each Reference Obligation Average Subordination of Reference Obligations Total Delinquencies (Average of Reference Obligations) Rating $ % - 30% 27 $72 32% 9.1% AAA % - 30% % 7.7% AAA % - 30% % 7.8% AA % - 50% % 8.1% BBB $1,831.0 Of these four synthetic CDOs of CMBS, two are rated AAA internally, one is rated AA internally and the fourth is rated BBB internally. These four CDOs contain 127 CMBS tranches (the Reference Obligations ) issued as part of 88 securitizations. 68 of the Reference Obligations are rated AAA by Moody s or Standard & Poor s. The total balance of the Reference Obligations equals $6.8 billion; however, the loan collateral supporting these 127 tranches consist of approximately 15,000 loans with a balance of approximately $187 billion. Underlying loan collateral is well diversified both geographically and by property type. (1) Radian Attachment Point is the percentage of the losses in the collateral pool that must occur before we are obligated to pay claims. The detachment point is the point where the percentage of losses reach a level where we cease to have an obligation to pay claims on additional losses. For example, a 7.0% attachment point on a $1.0 billion collateral pool means that we are not obligated to pay claims until there are $70.0 million of losses and a 50% detachment point means that our obligation to pay claims for losses ceases when the deal reaches an aggregate of $500 million of losses. 23

24 Key Takeaways Well positioned to capitalize on long-term improvement in industry fundamentals Strengthening MI franchise by writing new, profitable business Anticipating FHA pricing changes in October Financial guaranty business and recent capital raise provide capital support Near-term uncertainties remain for legacy losses and timing of market share recapture from FHA as well as the timing and nature of GSE reform Signs of credit trend stabilization in both MI and FG businesses Two consecutive quarters of declining delinquencies; credit burn-out evident Continue writing high-quality Mortgage Insurance business 24

25 Visit for Radian s Q2 Results Video Video Highlights What are the trends in the quarter that may be of interest to investors? What impacted your reserves in the quarter, and what is the biggest driver of that number? Did Radian write more new business in the second quarter, and what was your market share? How will you regain market share from the FHA? What are the most important points you would like investors to understand? 25

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27 Portfolio Management Mortgage Insurance Risk in Force and Primary New Insurance Written by Product ($ in millions) RIF $ At Quarter End Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Prime $27,500 $27,405 $27,095 $26,760 $26,541 Alt A 4,712 4,562 4,204 3,977 3,818 A minus & below 2,634 2,552 2,466 2,391 2,306 Pool MI 2,841 2,806 2,698 2,589 2,541 Second Liens NIMS International 3,776 3, $42,235 $41,475 $37,463 $36,578 $35,983 NIW For the Quarter $5,499 $3,446 $2,414 $1,897 $2,654 Prime 99.9% 99.9% 99.9% 99.9% 100.0% Alt A A minus & below 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% - 27

28 Primary Default Data Flow Only June 30, 2010 Origination Year # of Defaults Prime Loans Default Rate Prime Loans # of Defaults Alt-A Loans Default Rate Alt-A Loans # of Defaults A Minus and Below Default Rate A Minus and Below # of Total Flow Loans in Default Total Flow Default Rate 2003 and Prior 10, % 1, % 2, % 14, % , % 1, % 1, % 8, % , % 2, % 1, % 12, % , % 5, % 2, % 20, % , % 8, % 8, % 41, % 1H , % % 1, % 11, % 2H , % % % 3, % % % % % Total 74, % 20, % 18, % 113, % 28

29 Captive and SmartHome Reinsurance Benefits ($ in millions) Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Captive Reinsurance Premiums Ceded $ 37.5 $ 31.0 $ 26.8 $ 25.5 $ 24.7 % of Total Primary Premiums 18.3% 14.3% 12.5% 12.6% 12.1% NIW Subject to Captives $ $ $ 39.9 $ 0.3 $ (0.2) % of Primary NIW 7.8% 4.2% 1.7% <1% (<1%) Primary IIF included in Captives 34.8% 29.9% 29.3% 29.5% 28.8% Primary RIF included in Captives 39.0% 33.6% 31.5% 31.1% 30.5% Ceded Reserves $ $ $ $ $ SmartHome Transactions Premiums Ceded $ 2.9 $ 2.4 $ 2.9 $ 2.3 $ 2.6 % of Total Primary Premiums 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% Primary IIF included in SmartHome 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% Primary RIF included in SmartHome 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% Ceded Reserves $ 96.3 $ $ $ $

30 Financial Guaranty Net Par Outstanding by Product $81.3 billion as of June 30, 2010 ($ in billions) Reinsurance Direct Public Finance Direct Structured 6/30/ /31/2009 6/30/

31 Financial Guaranty CDO Portfolio Ratings Distribution for CDOs: $40.1 billion Net Par Outstanding as of June 30, 2010 ($ in billions) Ratings (1) Number of CDO Contracts/Policies Net Par Outstanding Percentage of CDO Net Par Outstanding AAA 335 $ % AA A BBB BIG (2) $ % (1) Ratings are based on Radian Asset s internal ratings. (2) BIG Below Investment Grade. 31

32 Financial Guaranty Corporate CDO Portfolio Credit Exposure to Direct Corporate CDOs as of June 30, 2010 ($ in billions) Year of Scheduled Maturity (1) Number of CDO Contracts / Policies Aggregate Net Par Exposure Initial Average # of Sustainable Credit Events (2) (6) Current Average # of Sustainable Credit Events (3)(6) Minimum # of Sustainable Credit Events (4) (6) Average # of Current Remaining Names in Transaction (5) $ Total 84 $33.6 (1) No directly insured corporate CDO transactions are scheduled to mature in 2015 or All of our directly insured corporate CDO transactions are scheduled to mature on or before December (2) The average number of sustainable credit events at the inception of each transaction. Average amounts presented are simple averages. (3) The average number of sustainable credit events determined as of June 30, Average amounts presented are simple averages. (4) The number of sustainable credit events for the one transaction with the fewest remaining sustainable credit events scheduled to mature in the year of scheduled maturity indicated. (5) The current average number of different corporate entities in each of the transactions. (6) The number of sustainable credit events represents the number of credit events on different corporate entities that can occur within a single transaction before we would be obligated to pay a claim. It is calculated using the weighted average exposure per corporate entity and assumes a recovery value of 30% to determine future losses (unless the parties have agreed upon a fixed recovery, then such fixed recovery is used to determine future loss). 32

33 Financial Guaranty Direct Corporate CDO Portfolio Underlying Collateral Ratings as of June 30, 2010 Ratings Distribution by Notional* ($ in billions) AAA, $0.7, 0.3% AA, $6.1, 2.5% A, $48.9, 20.4% N/R, $7.4, 3.1% CCC and below, $9.0, 3.8% B, $18.4, 7.7% BBB $ % BB, $45.6, 19.1% * Indicated ratings category reflects the lower of the ratings assigned to the underlying corporate entities by Moody s or S&P. 33

34 Financial Guaranty Direct CDO of ABS June 30, 2010 ($ in millions) Type of Collateral as a Percentage of Total Pool Year Insured Legal Final Maturity Net Par Outstanding RMBS SubPrime RMBS CMBS CDO of ABS CDO of CDO Other Total Collateral Pool S&P Rating Moody's Rating Internal Rating Radian Asset Attachment Point Radian Asset Detachment Point % 39.5% 17.4% 16.0% 4.2% 6.2% 100.0% CC Ca CC * 100.0% * Due to the substantial deterioration of the underlying collateral in this transaction, we currently expect losses from the remaining collateral will exceed the remaining subordination. Based on currently anticipated cash flows, we expect to begin paying claims related to interest shortfalls in 2012, and possibly earlier if performance is worse than expected. Due to the structure of this transaction, we do not expect to be obligated to pay claims related to principal shortfalls until sometime between 2036 and the legal final maturity date for the transaction in

35 Financial Guaranty Non-CDO Domestic RMBS Portfolio Breakdown by Asset Type: $579.5 million Domestic RMBS as of June 30, 2010 ($ in millions) Net Par Outstanding % of RMBS Portfolio Direct Total* Assumed Non- HELOCs Assumed HELOCs Assumed Total % 2006/2007 Vintage Ratings AAA AA A BBB BIG** SubPrime $ Policies 37.9% $ Policies 50.7% $ Policies 43.5% $ Policy 5.8% $ Policies 49.3% 2.9% / 12.0% 22.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 76.6% Prime $ Policies 27.6% $ Policies 75.0% $ Policies 0.5% $ Policies 24.5% $ Policies 25.0% 3.3% / 15.3% 65.3% 1.5% 25.2% 0.0% 8.0% Alt A $ Policies 31.0% $ Policies 33.9% $ Policies 46.3% $ Policies 19.9% $ Policies 66.2% 30.2% / 11.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 79.8% Second to Pay $ Policies 3.5% $0 0 Policies 0.0% $ Policies 100.0% $0 0 Policies 0.0% $ Policies 100.0% 0.0% / 100.0% 0.0% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 81.7% Total RMBS $ Policies 100.0% $ Policies 50.4% $ Policies 34.5% $ Policies 15.1% $ Policies 49.6% 11.4% / 15.7% 32.6% 1.2% 7.3% 0.0% 58.9% * Radian Asset has no direct HELOC exposure. No Direct RMBS has been written since 2005, and no direct SubPrime RMBS has been written since ** All of the BIG exposure is on Radian Asset s Watch List and reserves have been established for this exposure as needed. Note: Ratings are based on Radian Asset s internal ratings. 35

36 Contacts Emily Riley Vice President Financial Communications Terri Williams-Perry Investor Relations Specialist NYSE: RDN 36

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