An integrated economic valuation and Key features accounting framework for business planning, pricing, reserving, and steering
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2 EVM methodology An integrated economic valuation and accounting framework for business planning, pricing, reserving, and steering Shows direct connection between risk taking and value creation Provides consistent economic framework for evaluating risk taking outcomes and capital management decisions Enables comparing economic returns across businesses and product lines for capital allocation decisions on a risk-adjusted basis Key features Market consistent valuation of all assets and liabilities Exclusion of potential future new business (closed book approach) Recognition of all profits on new business at inception and of changes in estimates as they occur Best estimates of future projected cash flows on a discounted basis Performance is after capital costs Segregation between underwriting and investment activities Segmentation of P&C Re, L&H Re, Corporate Solutions and Admin Re balance sheet and income statement consistent with US GAAP methodology 2
3 2013 EVM financial highlights Strong investment and underwriting performance Significant 16% increase in EVM premiums and fees, USD 36.7bn EVM profit USD 4.0bn Excellent new business profit of USD 2.2bn, driven by higher volumes in P&C Re and L&H Re and organic growth in Corporate Solutions Strong investment profit of USD 1.3bn, with gains in equity, alternative investments and fixed income Previous years' business profit of USD 0.5bn, driven by positive reserve development in P&C Re and Corporate Solutions, partially offset by the recapture of US life business, negative development in post-level term (PLT) business in the US, and reserve strengthening for Group disability business in Australia EVM income USD 6.3bn Increase of USD 1.1bn compared to 2012 Economic net worth increased by 9.6% to USD 37.2bn Economic net worth per share USD (2012: USD 98.87) 3
4 EVM key figures illion, unless otherwise stated P&C Re L&H Re Corporate Solutions Admin Re Group items Total FY 2013 Total FY 2012 Premiums and fees EVM income EVM profit (loss) of which new business of which previous years' business of which investment activities New business profit margin 17.5% 4.9% 7.6% n/a n/a 9.6% 13.8% New business EROC 20.9% 12.7% 13.7% n/a n/a 15.3% 19.3% P&C Re L&H Re Corporate Solutions Admin Re Economic net worth (ENW) Economic net worth per share Group items 1 Total Economic Net Worth is after consolidation adjustments 4
5 P&C Reinsurance Continued strong underwriting performance PV new business premiums and fees +10% EVM profit a New business profit margin % +0.2pts % % Premium growth was mainly driven by the expiry of a major quota share retrocession agreement at the end of 2012 The increase was partially offset by reduced cessions on large quota share transactions in Europe New business profit USD 1.7bn due to strong underwriting performance Previous years' business profit USD 0.9bn, driven by favourable reserve development Investment profit USD 0.9bn, driven by gains from the overall short position as interest rates increased, gains from credit investments as spreads tightened and gains from equities as global markets rose New business profit margin reflects strong underwriting performance 5
6 L&H Reinsurance Strong new business growth PV new business premiums and fees EVM profit As New business profit margin +20% -5.5pts % % 4.9% Increase in premiums and fees, due to new large transactions The increase was partially offset by large longevity deals in 2012 which were not repeated in New business profit USD 0.6bn, mainly driven by Life business Previous years' business loss of USD 0.8bn, due to the recapture of US life business, assumption changes for PLT business in the US and reserve strengthening for Group disability business in Australia Investment loss of USD 0.1bn, driven by rising interest rates on the overall long duration position Profit margin decreased due to higher capital requirements of new large transactions 6
7 Corporate Solutions Continued profitable growth PV new business premiums and fees +40% EVM profit A New business profit margin % +0.4pts % Continued growth across most lines of business Gross premium 1 increased 13% to USD 3.9bn in 2013 Strategy to attain USD 4 5bn of gross premiums by 2015 is on track 292 New business profit USD 154m Previous years' business profit USD 203m, driven by favourable reserve development and lower regulatory capital requirements Investment profit USD 224m, driven by gains in credit and equities, including insurance derivative accounted business EVM Profit on basis of TFC 2 to Swiss Re Group USD 548m 7.2% New business profit margin improved mainly due to quality of business growth 1 Present value of premiums and fees before reinsurance 2 Estimated total financial contribution (TFC) of Corporate Solutions business written within Swiss Re Group and includes development of historic loss reserves remaining in Reinsurance for the previous years' business profit 7
8 Admin Re Strong investment performance PV new business premiums and fees EVM profit Gross cash generation (GCG) % FY FY 2013 No premiums and fees in 2013 as no new transactions were executed in the year 2012 result was driven by two large UK longevity transactions, largely retroceded to L&H Re 112 EVM profit mainly driven by strong investment result in credit as spreads tightened, and favourable mortality assumption changes USD 357m dividends paid to the Group in GCG of USD 521m includes USD 120m from business transfer to L&H Re Prior year included USD 804m cash proceeds and release of capital related to sale of Admin Re US business 1 Gross cash generation (GCG) is the change in excess capital over and above the target capital position 8
9 Investment activities Strong performance in 2013 Outperformance -10% EVM profit EVM income -10% Positive performance on equities and alternative investments as well as fixed income investments. Equity markets rallied in 2013 while credit spreads tightened Overall short duration position led to actual assets further outperforming the liabilitybased benchmark in an environment of increasing interest rates Result was driven by gains in equities and alternative investments as global markets rallied, and credit investments as spreads tightened Overall short position resulted in net gain as interest rates increased Positive EVM income as equity markets rallied, credit spreads tightened and risk free rates increased while assets were positioned short EVM income down by 10% mainly due to less credit spread tightening in 2013 than in
10 Economic net worth (ENW) Strong increase driven by EVM income ENW 31 Dec 2012 Changes in EVM accounting principles EVM income Dividends Other ENW 31 Dec 2013 Changes in accounting principles related to revised methodology for the EVM valuation of tax assets and liabilities "Other" includes foreign exchange translation gains and losses, and movements in treasury shares 10
11 Reconciliation EVM economic net worth to US GAAP shareholders' equity Total Reinsurance P&C Re L&H Re Solutions Re items consolidation) Corporate Admin Group (after USD billions US GAAP shareholders equity at 31 Dec Discounting Mark-to-market on assets and debt Reserving basis GAAP margins Other Recognition differences Goodwill and other intangibles Additional tax liability Other Frictional capital costs Economic net worth at 31 Dec Additional discounting compared to US GAAP increased in 2013 driven by higher risk free interest rates Lower US GAAP margins mainly driven by the impact of business recaptured in the first quarter 2013 ENW of Admin Re lower than US GAAP equity mainly due to lower discount rates in EVM for liabilities compared to the locked-in discount rates under US GAAP 11
12 Group financial targets On track ROE 700 bps above risk free average over 5 years ( ) EPS growth 10% average annual growth rate, adjusted for special dividends 1 ENW per share growth plus dividends 10% avg. annual growth rate over 5 years in % in USD in USD 2 +5% +10% E avg E = reported ROE = 700 bps above US Gov 5 years E 2015E = reported EPS = avg. annual growth (base: 2010), adjusted for special dividends E 2015E = reported ENWPS including cumulative dividends in USD 4 = 10% avg. annual growth (base: 2010) Delivering the financial targets remains Swiss Re's top priority 1 Target EPS growth rate has been adjusted from 10% to 5% for 2014 to account for the proposed CHF 4.15 per share special dividend (approx USD 1.6bn) expected to be distributed in April Methodology is in line with the approach taken for the special dividend of CHF 4.00 per share paid in April Assumes constant foreign exchange rate 3 Excl. CPCI 4 Cumulative dividends included in ENW per share were translated from CHF to USD using the fx rate of the dividend payment date; dividends included for 2011: USD 3.1 (CHF 2.75), 2012: USD 6.4 (CHF 3.00, or USD 3.3, in addition to the 2011 dividend), 2013: USD 14.5 (CHF 7.50, or USD 8.05, in addition to the 2011 and 2012 dividends) 12
13 Appendix 13 13
14 EVM segmental income statement 2013 Reinsurance P&C Re L&H Re Corporate Solutions illions Total Underwriting result New business result Premium and fees Claims and benefits Commissions Expenses Taxes Capital costs Other New business profit (loss) Previous years' business profit (loss) Underwriting profit (loss) Investment result Outperformance (underperformance) Expenses Taxes Capital costs Other Investment profit (loss) EVM profit (loss) Change in market value of debt Release of current year capital costs Additional taxes EVM income Admin Re Group items 14
15 EVM balance sheet December 2013, illions Reinsurance P&C Re L&H Re Corporate Solutions Admin Re Group items Consolidation Assets Investments Cash and cash equivalents In-force business assets External retrocession assets Other assets Total assets Liabilities In-force business liabilities External retrocession liabilities Provision for capital costs Future income tax liability Debt Other liabilities Total liabilities Total Economic net worth (ENW)
16 MCEV and EVM 2013 comparison MCEV recognises higher value than EVM USD bn Economic net worth 31 Dec 2013 Differences Differences Non-Life Life business1 business1 Other differences MCEV 31 Dec 2013 (estimate) MCEV uses swap yield curves are used as reference rates, compared to government rates in EVM No credit for liquidity premiums is reflected in either EVM or MCEV Differences between EVM and MCEV are mainly related to capital costs EVM frictional capital costs are 4% on EVM capital and approximately 2% on leverage MCEV costs for residual non-hedgeable risks are 3% on 99.5% Value-at-Risk, resulting in lower capital costs than EVM 1 Distinction between Life and Non-Life business is based on the type of business rather than Swiss Re's business segments 16
17 EVM developments 2013 As of 1 January 2013, the methodology for the EVM valuation of tax assets and liabilities was revised. The cumulative effect upon initial adoption was recognised as an increase of USD 0.3 billion in the opening balance of ENW As of 1 January 2013, frictional capital costs are charged to consumers of leverage using a term structure for the funding rates. Previously, a flat rate of 2% was applied 2014 The application of frictional capital costs will be revised. Parent companies will benefit from a funding credit for business that provides net liquidity. In addition, funding rates charged to users of funding will be lowered Swiss Re's risk tolerance framework will be applied to the calculation and allocation of risk capital costs 17
18 Corporate calendar & contacts Corporate calendar 24 March 2014 Annual General Meeting Briefing Conference call 11 April th Annual General Meeting Zurich 7 May 2014 First Quarter 2014 results Conference call 3 July 2014 Investors' Day London 6 August 2014 Second Quarter 2014 results Conference call 7 November 2014 Third Quarter 2014 results Conference call Investor Relations contacts Hotline Investor_Relations@swissre.com Eric Schuh Ross Walker Chris Menth Simone Lieberherr Simone Fessler
19 19
20 Cautionary note on non-gaap financial measures This presentation includes information on Economic Value Management ( EVM ) which contains non-gaap financial measures. EVM is not based on US GAAP, which are the principles in accordance with which Swiss Re prepares its consolidated financial statements, and should not be viewed as a substitute for US GAAP financial measures. Among other items, the EVM income statement (and its components) should not be viewed as a substitute for the income statement (and its line items) included as part of Swiss Re s US GAAP consolidated financial statements, and the Economic net worth figure should not be viewed as a substitute for shareholders equity as reported in Swiss Re s US GAAP consolidated balance sheet. Nonetheless, Swiss Re believes that EVM provides meaningful additional measures to evaluate its business. 20
21 Cautionary note on forward-looking statements Certain statements and illustrations contained herein are forward-looking. These statements (including as to plans objectives, targets and trends) and illustrations provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or current fact. Forward-looking statements typically are identified by words or phrases such as anticipate, assume, believe, continue, estimate, expect, foresee, intend, may increase and may fluctuate and similar expressions or by future or conditional verbs such as will, should, would and could. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause Swiss Re s actual results of operations, financial condition, solvency ratios, liquidity position or prospects to be materially different from any future results of operations, financial condition, solvency ratios, liquidity position or prospects expressed or implied by such statements or cause Swiss Re to not achieve its published targets. Such factors include, among others: further instability affecting the global financial system and developments related thereto; deterioration in global economic conditions; Swiss Re s ability to maintain sufficient liquidity and access to capital markets, including sufficient liquidity to cover potential recapture of reinsurance agreements, early calls of debt or debt-like arrangements and collateral calls due to actual or perceived deterioration of Swiss Re s financial strength or otherwise; the effect of market conditions, including the global equity and credit markets, and the level and volatility of equity prices, interest rates, credit spreads, currency values and other market indices, on Swiss Re s investment assets; changes in Swiss Re s investment result as a result of changes in its investment policy or the changed composition of its investment assets, and the impact of the timing of any such changes relative to changes in market conditions; uncertainties in valuing credit default swaps and other credit-related instruments; possible inability to realise amounts on sales of securities on Swiss Re s balance sheet equivalent to their mark-to-market values recorded for accounting purposes; the outcome of tax audits, the ability to realise tax loss carryforwards and the ability to realise deferred tax assets (including by reason of the mix of earnings in a jurisdiction or deemed change of control), which could negatively impact future earnings; the possibility that Swiss Re s hedging arrangements may not be effective; the lowering or loss of one of the financial strength or other ratings of one or more Swiss Re companies, and developments adversely affecting Swiss Re s ability to achieve improved ratings; the cyclicality of the reinsurance industry; uncertainties in estimating reserves; uncertainties in estimating future claims for purposes of financial reporting, particularly with respect to large natural catastrophes, as significant uncertainties may be involved in estimating losses from such events and preliminary estimates may be subject to change as new information becomes available; the frequency, severity and development of insured claim events; acts of terrorism and acts of war; mortality, morbidity and longevity experience; policy renewal and lapse rates; extraordinary events affecting Swiss Re s clients and other counterparties, such as bankruptcies, liquidations and other credit-related events; current, pending and future legislation and regulation affecting Swiss Re or its ceding companies, and the interpretation of legislation or regulations; legal actions or regulatory investigations or actions, including those in respect of industry requirements or business conduct rules of general applicability; changes in accounting standards; significant investments, acquisitions or dispositions, and any delays, unexpected costs or other issues experienced in connection with any such transactions; changing levels of competition; and operational factors, including the efficacy of risk management and other internal procedures in managing the foregoing risks. These factors are not exhaustive. Swiss Re operates in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Swiss Re undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This communication is not intended to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and does not constitute an offer for the sale of, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities in any jurisdiction, including the United States. Any such offer will only be made by means of a prospectus or offering memorandum, and in compliance with applicable securities laws. 21
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