Best Practices for Managing Entry Fee Contract Risks Repositioning Your Community for Success in a Changing World April 2, 2014

Transcription

1 Best Practices for Managing Entry Fee Contract Risks Repositioning Your Community for Success in a Changing World April 2, 2014 AV Powell ( AV@avpowell.com) 6255 Barfield Road NE, Suite 102 Atlanta, GA phone x1 fax

2 150+ CCRCs in Database

3 Typical CCRC in Database Operating for 25 Years 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(133) (150) (130) (141) (154)

4 Discussion Outline 1. Can refundable entry fee risk be mitigated? 2. Financial issues that face all CCRC 3. Summary and Q & A GAAP FSO ASOP#3 Management of: Cash flows Liabilities 3

5 Managing Entry Fee Refunds 1. Refundable contracts are not risk free 2. Funding options may be confusing Contingent (Pay-as-you-go) Actuarial discounting (ASOP#3) Future FASB will not amortize (GAAP) 4

6 Options for Funding Refunds 1. Is pay-as-you-go funding best public policy 2. If decide to self-fund Age-based pricing for refund Establish and hold liquid reserves for refund liability 3. Least risk alternatives Purchase individual/group insurance policies 100% escrow of refund liability 5

7 Categories for Disclosure of Refund Reserve Status 1. GAAP with 100% liquid funding 2. GAAP with liquid funding > ASOP#3 3. ASOP#3 with 100% liquid funding 4. ASOP#3 with liquid funding > Exp{12 months} 5. All other situations 6. Sample of 10 FL clients 50% were 4 or higher 6

8 Discussion Outline 1. Can refundable entry fee risk be mitigated? 2. Financial issues that face all CCRCs 3. Summary and Q & A GAAP FSO ASOP#3 Management of: Cash flows Liabilities 7

9 Issues that Actuaries Address (1) 1. Is lifecare economically viable? 2. What is the best CCRC contract? 3. How likely am I to outlive my financial resources? 4. Can I retire from inflation? 5. What are reasonable expectations for future fees? 8

10 Lifecare is Viable, but 1. How do you define solvency? Pay-as-go social security funding, or Defined benefit ERISA funding, i.e., ASOP#3 Management of: GAAP FSO ASOP#3 Cash flows Liabilities 9

11 Issues that Actuaries Address (2) 1. Is lifecare economically viable? 2. What is the best CCRC contract? 3. How likely am I to outlive my financial resources? 4. Can I retire from inflation? 5. What are reasonable expectations for future fees? 10

12 All Contracts Have Risk! 11

13 Future Expectations Influence Your Contract Risk Profile Increasing longevity; health care % increasing Fee-for-service Increasing longevity; health care % same Type A, B, C, D Increasing longevity; health care % decreasing Lifecare 12

14 Issues that Actuaries Address (3) 1. Is lifecare economically viable? 2. What is the best CCRC contract? 3. How likely am I to outlive my financial resources? 4. Can I retire from inflation? 5. What are reasonable expectations for future fees? 13

15 Female Entry Age Stays Constant at 80 Years 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(133) (150) (130) (148) (154)

16 Male Entry Age is 2 Years Older than Females at 82 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(133) (150) (130) (148) (154)

17 Females Live about 2 Years Longer than General Population 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(133) (150) (130) (148) (154)

18 Males Live about 6 Months Longer than General Population 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(133) (150) (130) (148) (154)

19 ILU Attrition Over 11% 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(133) (150) (129) (148) (154) Moving Avg Percentages 18

20 Issues that Actuaries Address (4) 1. Is lifecare economically viable? 2. What is the best CCRC contract? 3. How likely am I to outlive my financial resources? 4. Can I retire from inflation? 5. What are reasonable expectations for future fees? 19

21 ILU Expenses up 4.4% (Same-site up 1.0%) 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(133) $55.20 $65.44 $67.30 $ (150) $55.87 $67.14 $68.74 $ (130) $57.69 $69.60 $71.36 $ (148) $61.22 $72.09 $74.12 $ (154) $61.96 $75.26 $76.45 $

22 ALU Expenses up 3.0% (Same-site down 2.1%) 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(128) $ $ $ $ (146) $ $ $ $ (127) $ $ $ $ (145) $ $ $ $ (152) $ $ $ $

23 NUR Expenses up 1.8% (Same-site up 1.0%) 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(133) $ $ $ $ (150) $ $ $ $ (130) $ $ $ $ (148) $ $ $ $ (152) $ $ $ $

24 Monthly Fees Increased 3% to 4% 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(123) (147) (128) (146) (153) Percentages 23

25 Entry Fees Increased 2% to 3% 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(118) (147) (127) (144) (151) Percentages 24

26 Issues that Actuaries Address (5) 1. Is lifecare economically viable? 2. What is the best CCRC contract? 3. How likely am I to outlive my financial resources? 4. Can I retire from inflation? 5. What are reasonable expectations for future fees? 25

27 What is Your Pricing Philosophy? If lifetime costs = $600,000 Should you collect < $540,000 or $660,000 or more 26

28 Fundamental Pricing Policy 1. Pay-as-go social security funding OR 2. Defined benefit ERISA funding, i.e., ASOP#3 Management of: GAAP FSO ASOP#3 Cash flows Liabilities 27

29 Entry Fees Cover Nearly 30% of Future Liabilities 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(122) (139) (119) (137) (142) Percentages 28 Comparative Statistics

30 Prepayment and Inflation Drives Reserve Accumulation 29

31 Issues that Actuaries Address (6) 6. Are refundable fees worth the risk? 7. How should solvency be measured? 8. How have actuarially sound CCRCs fared? 9. Does financial regulation work? 10. Can I assess relative financial risk among CCRCs? 30

32 Does FFS Reduce Resident Risk? 1. Higher probability of depleting resources 2. Refund resale risk transferred to resident 3. Reality is unregulated whole life insurance $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Lifetime costs Monthly fee add'l Month fee Entry fee 31

33 Issues that Actuaries Address (7) 6. Are refundable fees worth the risk? 7. How should solvency be measured? 8. How have actuarially sound CCRCs fared? 9. Does financial regulation work? 10. Can I assess relative financial risk among CCRCs? 32

34 The SOLVENCY Criteria 1. Current reserves funded 2. New entrant fees adequate Satisfactory Actuarial Balance (ASOP#3) 3. Meet debt covenants 4. Unified funded status 33

35 What If Don t Adopt ASOP#3? 1. Doesn t meet regulation in some states 2. Won t necessarily run out of cash 3. Ponzi-like fee structure 4. Legacy passed on to future Boards 5. Not meeting fiduciary responsibility? 6. Unable to avoid potential financial crisis 34

36 Issues that Actuaries Address (8) 6. Are refundable fees worth the risk? 7. How should solvency be measured? 8. How have actuarially sound CCRCs fared? 9. Does financial regulation work? 10. Can I assess relative financial risk among CCRCs? 35

37 Benchmark ILU Occupancy: 88% (Same-site constant) 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(133) (150) (130) (148) (154) Percentages 36

38 Benchmark ALU Occupancy: 92% 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(127) (145) (126) (143) (150) Percentages 37

39 Benchmark NUR Occupancy: 91% ` 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(129) (147) (128) (146) (147) Percentages 38

40 Actuarial Funding is Marketable (Same-site constant) 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(122) (139) (119) (137) (142) Percentages 39

41 Typical Fees Show 10% Surplus (Same-site up 1.2%) 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(133) (150) (130) (148) (154) Percentages 40

42 In % of our Clients were SAB 25th 50th Average 75th (116) Percentages 41

43 75% of our Clients are SAB (Same-site down 2.3%) 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(120) (134) (105) (123) (135) Percentages 42

44 Project Liquid Reserves to More than Double in 10 Years 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(118) (131) (115) (132) (132)

45 Liquid Assets Fund Nearly Half of the Target Liabilities 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(122) (139) (118) (136) (141) Percentages 44

46 Entry Fees Cover Nearly 30% of Future Liabilities 25th 50th Average 75th 2008(122) (139) (119) (137) (142) Percentages 45

47 Issues that Actuaries Address (9) 6. Are refundable fees worth the risk? 7. How should solvency be measured? 8. How have actuarially sound CCRCs fared? 9. Does financial regulation work? 10. Can I assess relative financial risk among CCRCs? 46

48 Can Regulation Be Effective? 1. Can t legislate full occupancy 2. Allows some entry fee contracts to opt out 3. Designating as challenged acerbates issues 4. Conflicts with GAAP interpretations 5. Financing institutions already regulate cash 47

49 Issues that Actuaries Address (10) 6. Are refundable fees worth the risk? 7. How should solvency be measured? 8. How have actuarially sound CCRCs fared? 9. Does financial regulation work? 10. Can I assess relative financial risk among CCRCs? 48

50 Can You Quantify CCRC Financial Risks Credibly & Reliably? 1. Assumptions, Assumptions, Assumptions 2. Trends in ILU occupancy 3. Relationship between revenues, expenses, and earnings 4. Plans for capital renovations 5. Greenfield and rebuilding occupancy 49

51 Discussion Outline 1. Can refundable entry fee risk be mitigated? 2. Financial issues that face all CCRC 3. Summary and Q & A GAAP FSO ASOP#3 Management of: Cash flows Liabilities 50

52 Managing Entry Fee Refunds 1. Industry adopt funding liabilities, not cash flows 2. Promote ASOP#3 for all entry fee contracts, but not required 3. Full disclosure of entry funded status, and/or 4. Minimum refund reserves = 10% of GAAP liability 51

53 Implementation Challenges 1. Consumer education 2. Universal stakeholder buy-in on approach 3. Perceived value of additional costs 4. Consistent definitions What constitutes and entry fee Minimum number of contracts to qualify 52