Slaying the Dragon Improving Company and Individual Returns on Investments in Actuarial Education. Mike McDougall

Transcription

1 Slaying the Dragon Improving Company and Individual Returns on Investments in Actuarial Education Mike McDougall

2 01 Presentation agenda 1. The business case 2. Performance summary 3. Performance analysis 1. Uncontrollable 2. Previously controllable 3. Controllable 4. Cost and benefits 5. Return PG 1

3 02 The Business Case Excellent low risk investment for able students Benefits Low unemployment risk High financial returns High job satisfaction and range reward Costs Direct costs of education Time and opportunity costs Risks Failure Sub optimal performance Opportunity cost PG 2

4 03 Performance summary The preparation 800 enter university actuarial programmes 400 join ASSA The quest exemptions granted per year exam attempts per year exam passes per year (41%) The victory 80 new Fellow members per year PG 3

5 04 Performance summary Subjects Attempts Passes % A % A % A % A % F % F % Total % Pass rates do not include exemptions Only students registered through ASSA included in F1 results PG 4

6 05 Performance analysis Uncontrollable factors Gender Race Previously controllable factors University SAADP Exemptions Controllable factors Region Session Employer Interventions PG 5

7 06 Uncontrollable factor - Gender Female Male Exemptions Attempts Index +4-2 Female students outperform male Not significant except at A301 level Persistence or obstinance? PG 6

8 07 Uncontrollable factor - Race Black Coloured Indian White Other Exemptions Attempts Index Race is a significant factor in exam performance Significant difference in number of exemptions Correlation not causation PG 7

9 08 Previously controllable factor - University Alpha Bravo Charlie Delta Echo Foxtrot Other Exemptions Attempts Index Marked performance differences between universities Not significant when allowing for uncontrollable factors Alpha best performer when allowing for uncontrollable factors Different performance hubs PG 8

10 09 Previously controllable factor - SAADP SAADP Comparable Exemptions Attempts Index South African Actuaries Development Programme SAADP perform well in subjects covered at universities SAADP underperform at F2 level Support vs selection PG 9

11 10 Previously controllable factor - Exemptions Students Attempts Index Students with more exemptions perform better Zero exemption group PG 10

12 11 Controllable factor - Region Gauteng Western Cape Other Attempts Index Western Cape out performs Gauteng at all subject levels Difference most marked at A2 level Significant at A2 even after allowance for uncontrollable and previously controllable PG 11

13 12 Controllable factor - Session Session 1 Session 2 Attempts Index +1-1 In aggregate no marked difference A301 significantly better in 1 st session F1 significantly better in 2 nd session PG 12

14 13 Controllable factor Employer (1) Audit Bank Consult L/T insure Reinsure S/T insure Exemptions Attempts Index Marked differences in performance across sectors Marked differences in student university performance (exemptions) PG 13

15 14 Controllable factor Employer (2) A B C D E F G M Self Un Exempt Attempts Index Marked and consistent difference between employers Some differences statistically significant Self employed amongst the brightest but underperform in exams Unemployed perform at A1 and A2 levels Need to assess against uncontrollable & previously controllable factors PG 14

16 15 Controllable factor Employer (3) A B C D E F G M Self Un Index Attributed Balance Attribute determined by uncontrollable and previously controllable factors Marked differences Possible factors: Study benefits Success culture Breadth of experience and exposure PG 15

17 16 Controllable factor Employer (4) Study benefits Time Financial Acknowledging success Financial Promotion Recognition Culture Failure not an option Students are expected to pass every exam they sit An honourable failure is acceptable Passing an exam is an exceptional achievement PG 16

18 17 Controllable factor Education Interventions A301 A302 F1 F2 Counselling Courses & mock exams No intervention Only exam sessions included Counselling follows prior failure Possible selection effect Small numbers but clear performance impact PG 17

19 18 Performance analysis - Factors summary Impact Comment Uncontrollable factors Gender Minor Most significant at A301 Race Significant White students outperform Black Previously controllable factors University Clear differences Differs by subject range SAADP Significant Strong performance in A subjects Exemptions Marked More exemptions better performance Controllable factors Location Marked Significant at A2 level Session Not overall A301 & F1 have clear differences Employer Marked Some consistent variances Intervention Marked Small numbers but clear difference PG 18

20 19 Costs and Benefits : Costs R 000 All exemptions No exemption star Average student Direct costs Time cost to employer Time cost to student Total cost Average student as summarised in section 6.1 of paper Time cost to employer median study leave as per Table 16 in 3x salary 100% study leave for 1 st attempt, 50% for 2 nd then zero Student time cost different between recommended hours and study 1x salary PG 19

21 20 Costs & Benefits : Benefits to Student PV of earnings over 40 year career PV (R m) Premium Base (actuarial graduate no exemptions) years to TASSA years to AMASSA years to FASSA years to FASSA years to FASSA years to FASSA TASSA Technical member of ASSA; pass all A1 & A2 subjects AMASSA Associate member of ASSA; TASSA plus A3 subjects FASSA Fellow member of ASSA; AMASSA plus F1 & F2 subjects Calculations include salary but no bonus, 13 th cheque or other earnings PG 20

22 21 Costs & Benefits : Benefits to Employer Value components Increased billable hours Increased billable rate / value of work Considerations Continued tenure One year flow vs present value 1 year consulting value R 000 Successful senior student Newly qualified Change Hourly rate % Net billable hours % Net revenue % PG 21

23 22 Optimising return on investment Key drivers of return Exam pass rate Revenue enhancement on pass Key investment components Direct cost of exams Opportunity cost of time Cost of additional support Assumptions Causal link between interventions and performance Benefit only realised in the next session no carry over PG 11

24 23 Optimising return on investment value to student F2 exam (Values R 000) 1 st attempt 2 nd attempt 3 rd attempt No interventions Online tuition (R5 100) Counselling (R2 830) Measure of incremental increase in value of life time earnings Significant increase in value for small outlay PG 23

25 24 Optimising return on investment value to employer F2 exam (Values R 000) 1 st attempt 2 nd attempt 3 rd attempt No interventions Online tuition (R5 100) Counselling (R2 830) Measures incremental value of 2 years net consulting revenue Cost of study leave and opportunity cost of unpaid leave exceeds cost of intervention PG 24

26 25 In conclusion Exam performance Differences by race University and SAADP have impact Controllable factors impacting performance Region Employer Interventions Return on investment Opportunity and indirect costs Revenue enhancement Optimised through boosting pass rate PG 25

27 26 Thank you & comments PG 26