The Effectiveness of Alberta s Pre-suppression Preparedness System Judi Beck

Transcription

1 The Effectiveness of Alberta s Pre-suppression Preparedness System Judi Beck Introduce FERIC & WFORC; Review Preparedness Planning Process; Review Alberta s PPS; PPS Evaluation Project;

2 Wildland Fire Operations Research Centre Ray Ault Greg Baxter Judi Beck Gary Dakin 1176 Switzer Drive Hinton, AB Canada T7V 1V3 Fax: (780)

3 ACFIRE Marv Clark, FERIC Dennis Driscoll, SRD Don Podlubny, SRD Marty Alexander, CFS Con Dermott/Lou Foley, Vanderwell Warren Kehr, Weldwood Archie Jacobs, Millar Western Kelly O Shea, Alpac

4 Pre-suppression Preparedness Systems Fire management organisations use a presuppression preparedness system (PPS) to help preposition the optimum number and type of initial attack resources that are required to minimise wildfire losses and suppression costs, based on: Potential Fire Occurrence; Potential Fire Behaviour; Values at Risk; Suppression Difficulty. Pre-suppression preparedness Planning should also invoke suitable prevention and detection activities, and recommend appropriate support resources. 4

5 Potential Fire Occurrence Potential Fire Behaviour PPS supports tactical day-to-day decision making. Values at Risk Suppression Productivity SFMS images courtesy of Peter Englefield, Canadian Forest Service

6 Potential Fire Occurrence Potential Fire Behaviour PPS supports tactical day-to-day decision making. WTRS supports strategic long term decision making. Values at Risk Suppression Productivity SFMS images courtesy of Peter Englefield, Canadian Forest Service

7 Forecasted Weather Inputs - lightning - precipitation - temperature, RH, Wind Speed & Direction Forecasted Intermediate Outputs - FWI & FBP Forecasted FOP - Number, Location and Time of Arrival of Self-Sustaining Fires U ltimate PPS Forecasted Suppression Priorities - Values at Risk - Potential Losses based on Fire Growth Modelling Forecasted Suppression Productivity - Crew Travel Times - Estimated Time, Size and Location of Fire at Containment Optimum Location and Number of Suppression Resources Required to Maintain IA Objectives

8 U ltimate PPS Preposition IA Resources so that Values lost to wildfire are minimized subject to constraints: - crew safety - crew numbers - budget

9 C ommon Agency Approach to PPS Preposition IA Resources so that Area lost to wildfire is minimized subject to constraints: - crew safety - crew numbers - budget

10 C ommon Agency Approach to PPS Preposition IA Resources to maximize the number of fires actioned before they obtain a specified maximum area subject to the following constraints: - crew safety - crew & aircraft numbers - budget

11 A lberta s PPS For each Fire Zone, pre-position suppression resources at any one of a number of predetermined locations to ensure that percent coverage objectives are met subject to several constraints. Percent coverage defines the proportion of a Fire Zone area that one or more suppression resources can reach before a fire exceeds 2 ha in size.

12 Percent Coverage objectives must be met between May 1st and October 31st, and vary as a function of the rank of the mean Head Fire Intensity (HFI) for the Zone: Mean HFI Rank Coverage Requirements 1 No Coverage Required 2, 3, 4 80 % 5, 6 > 80 % Constrained such that: A lberta s PPS - If the rank of the mean HFI > 1, cells with HFI Rank 5 and High Values at Risk must be covered by 2 Initial Attack resources; and, - Cells with HFI Rank 2 do not require any IA resources - Cell size for Zone PPS planning is 1000 m x 1000 m (100 ha)

13 STRUCTURE OF THE PRESUPPRESSION PREPAREDNESS SYSTEM USING SFMS PHYSICAL FIRE PARAMETERS FUELS TOPOGRAPHY WEATHER FIRE BEHAVIOR PREDICTION MANAGEMENT PARAMETERS Policy & guidelines ATTACK SIZE OBJECTIVE RESOURCES: TYPE, AMOUNT, AVAILABILITY & LOCATION CROWNING POTENTIAL RATE OF SPREAD AREA & PERIMETER GROWTH % COVERAGE OBJECTIVE BASED ON HFI RANK HEAD FIRE INTENSITY SPATIAL FIRE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SFMS) ATTACK TIME ANALYSIS RESOURCE POSITIONING RESOURCE DEPLOYMENT COVERAGE ASSESSMENT Duty Officer FIRE RISK MANAGEMENT Values at Risk Priorities Lightning & Human Caused Risk FIRE BEHAVIOR KNOWLEDGE & EXPERTISE SUPPORT RESOURCE DEPLOYMENT INITIAL ATTACK RESOURCE DEPLOYMENT Modifiers Ignition Probability Multi-Fire Starts Holdover Potential Resistance to Control RESOURCE Type, Capabilities & Training PRESUPPRESSION PREPAREDNESS PLAN Kurt Frederick, Jan. 31, 1999 Kurt Frederick, Forest Protection, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development

14 SFMS images courtesy of Kurt Frederick, Forest Protection, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development

15 SFMS images courtesy of Kurt Frederick, Forest Protection, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development

16 Coverage Assessment Coverage: 82% The SFMS Resource Optimization Routines are NOT used Operationally! Kurt Frederick, Forest Protection, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development

17 Time to crown fire =.9 mins. Time to reach 2.0 ha = 25 mins. Continuous crown fire at head Intermittent crown fire on flanks ROS = 10.3 m/min increasing to 11.1 m/min Perimeter growth = 30 m/min. Kurt Frederick, Forest Protection, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development

18 SFMS images courtesy of Kurt Frederick, Forest Protection, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development Definitions Covered Partially Covered Not Covered - number of crews required has been met No Resources Required - no crews are required - can be reached by 1 crew when 2 are required - 1 crew(s) required but cell cannot be reached

19 Definitions Covered Partially Covered Not Covered No Resources Required - no crews are required - number of crews required for that cell has been met - cell can be reached by 1 crew when 2 are required - 1 crew(s) required but cell cannot be reached Current % Coverage Calculation % Coverage = 100 % - Not Covered - unless areas Not Covered require no more than a single resource, this calculation may overstate how well policy requirements have been met. - crews can get to the areas that requires coverage but not enough of them to satisfy policy requirements

20 Consider the following hypothetical situation Resources Required per cell Resources that meet IA Objectives (Available) Required - Available O Negative Numbers Positive Numbers - coverage requirement has been met - area is over-resourced - area is under-resourced (Not Covered) % Coverage = 100 % - Not Covered (2 cells not covered) 60 % = (5 cell - 2 cells)/5 cells x 100

21 Consider the following hypothetical situation Resources Required per cell Resources that meet IA Objectives (Available) Required - Available O Negative Numbers Positive Numbers - coverage requirement has been met - area is over-resourced - area is under-resourced (Not Covered) Total Coverage Requirement = = 6 vs Total Area = 5 cells % Coverage Requirements Under-resourced = = 3/6 or 50 % % Area Under-resourced = 2/5 cells x 100 = 40 % % Area Over-resourced = 1/5 cells x 100 = 20 % % Area Adequately or Better Resourced = 3/5 cells x 100 = 60 %

22 How well does the current % Area Coverage describe the situation if resource numbers increase... % Area Adequately or Better Resourced = 2/5 cells x 100 = 40 % Resources Required per cell Resources that meet IA Objectives (Available) Required - Available O Negative Numbers Positive Numbers - coverage requirement has been met - area is over-resourced - area is under-resourced (Not Covered) Total Coverage Requirement = = 10 vs Total Area = 5 cells % Coverage Requirements Under-resourced = = 5/10 or 50 % % Area Under-resourced = 3/5 cells x 100 = 60 % % Area Over-resourced = 1/5 cells x 100 = 20 %

23 What Questions Need to be Answered? Area Over-Resourced as a % of the Total Area Managed Area Under-Resourced as a % of the Total Area Managed Coverage Requirement Met as a % of the Total Coverage Required

24 A lberta s PPS Related Policy Goals and Objectives: - Wildfires to be discovered at a size of < 0.1 ha - Wildfires to be reported 5 minutes

25 The Effectiveness of Alberta s Pre-suppression Preparedness System Problem Statement Fire management believe that current coverage requirements result in over-resourcing given certain circumstances and under-resourcing at other times. Coverage requirements and initial attack effectiveness must be evaluated by way of a standard, scientific process that will permit seasonal comparisons.

26 The Effectiveness of Alberta s Pre-suppression Preparedness System Study Objectives: Establish a methodology to determine if PPS is meeting its targets. How is the Probability of IA failure related to PPS? Can such questioned be answered via historical analysis? Develop criteria and methods that can be applied to compare the effectiveness of PPS from one fire season to another. Is all of the information for this kind of analysis available? How are variances applied and documented?

27 All Decision Making is Based on Forecast Information but... this information is often not stored and it can be difficult to review how it was applied. Historical Forecast s Provided by PFFC Weather Section, Forest Protection, Alberta SRD

28 What information is available via Alberta s FIRES System? Is information on the location and availability of IA crews adequate? Is information on crew pre-positioning tracked? Given that the Optimizer in SFMS is not being used, how are crews being positioned to achieve coverage requirements? Is this efficient? How can this information be related to Coverage Recommendations?

29 The Effectiveness of Alberta s Pre-suppression Preparedness System Study Methods: Review pre-suppression policy, PPS and IA effectiveness. Observe the use of SFMS and PPS at both the Provincial and Fire Zone Levels. Develop a methodology for PPS evaluation and annual comparisons. Define the information requirements for PPS evaluation and effectiveness, and establish the availability thereof. Acquire historical information required to compare recommended and deployed resource levels, if possible, and evaluate PPS performance via the established methodology. Review alternative Workload Analysis and Operational Research techniques applicable to PPS. Identify the strengths and weaknesses of PPS with its users, developers and the PPS Review Team, and recommend improvements to PSS as required.

30 The Effectiveness of Alberta s Pre-suppression Preparedness System Project Schedule: Review pre-suppression policy and the PPS by March 30 th. Develop effectiveness criteria and a prototype methodology for PPS evaluation and annual comparisons by April 30th. By August 31 st, - acquire historical information required to compare recommended and deployed resource levels, if possible, or - establish prototype data collection and collation procedures, and implement them on a project basis during the 2001 fire season. Complete an actual or theoretical PPS performance evaluation via the established methodology by September 30 th. Complete draft report by December 31 st. The End