Infrastructure Risk Management. Infrastructure Risk Management
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1 Infrastructure Risk Management What is Risk and Uncertainty? Risk and uncertainty are two terms basic to any decision making framework. Risk can be defined as imperfect knowledge where the probabilities of the possible outcomes are known, and uncertainty exists when these probabilities are not known 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 2 1
2 What is Risk management? The Risk Management process is defined as the process of taking management action in order to respond appropriately to all identified risks to maximise the likelihood of the project meeting its objectives within its constraints, by monitoring risk exposure and adjusting project strategy to keep risk within acceptable levels 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 3 Why is risk management important? The consequences of failure have many effects: Costs Environmental Impacts Social Impacts Operational Impacts 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 4 2
3 Why is risk management important? Decision Making Undertaking asset repair and rehabilitation decisions Undertaking condition assessment decisions Operational Planning Setting maintenance procedures Developing emergency management plans 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 5 Typical Risk in Infrastructure Projects Economic Risks: Inflation, Economic Policy stability Soc.-political risks: Social stability, regional stability, corruption, social non-acceptance Regulatory & Legal Risks: Stability of regulatory framework, enforceability of contracts, independent regulations Market Risks: Tariffs, demand, competition 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 6 3
4 Typical Risk in Infrastructure Projects Development & Construction Risks: Design and Planning, construction and completion Start-up & Operating: Performance, environmental, suppliers Technology: Obsolescence Force Majeure: Natural disasters, war 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 7 Risk Measure Level of risk is measured using numerous indicators, for example: Portion of an asset deemed to be critical (expected to fail) is represented by those assets that have deteriorated past the expected service life and are considered unacceptable Impact of failure of an asset impacts of assessed failure are measured according to the social (health and safety of citizens), environmental (impact on the environment), and economic (cost of failure) indicators 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 8 4
5 Risk Measure Level of risk is measured using numerous indicators, for example: Overall condition categorized by either A (very good), B (good), C (fair), D (poor) or E (very poor) or using any measure of the asset condition Severity reflects the overall likelihood of asset failure; the expected amount of failure and the impact of the failure on the city. An analytical combination of expected assets in critical condition and the impacts of failure of those assets help to analyze infrastructure deterioration levels at a large-scale level. 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 9 Risk Associated with Ineffective Condition Assessment Declining asset condition is not identified and addressed; Maintenance planning is not related to asset needs; Asset condition cannot be adequately reported; Deferred maintenance liability and provisions for future maintenance requirements cannot be reported in financial statements; Maintenance demand is not properly identified; 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 10 5
6 Risk Associated with Ineffective Condition Assessment Poor quality of data leading to poor decision-making; Serious deficiencies can be overlooked; Information gathered on asset condition could be misleading; and Resources are not used effectively. 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 11 Asset Criticality Criticality represents the relative importance of the asset when assessed by the impact of its failure on operations and the public Criticality is revealed in case of failure, when services and resources are suddenly not available anymore critical infrastructure has a major importance for the society and that, if disrupted, would comprehensively affect supply chain, public safety and could lead to further dramatic consequences. 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 12 6
7 Asset Criticality 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 13 Risk-Based Planning and Decision Making Educated decision to accept exposure or to reduce vulnerabilities by either mitigating the risks or applying cost effective controls Promotes identification and tracking of risk drivers Factors impacting consequences and probability of failure Economic, Operational, Social, Environmental Targets resources at areas where exposure is greatest Focus on understanding when and where to invest 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 14 7
8 Risk-Based Planning and Decision Making Supports consistent application of treatment based on Risk Exposure Inspection Maintenance Rehab/Replacement 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 15 Risk-Based Planning and Decision Making It is important to define which assets are critical, and focus maintenance efforts on those assets Critical asset which have risk of a high cost arising from failure of that asset and impacts the customers largely and immediately Asset criticality index: Highly critical; critical; Mid-level critical; Lowlevel; critical and Non-critical (following table identifies each level consequences). 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 16 8
9 Risk-Based Planning and Decision Making Level Highly Critical Critical Mid Level Critical Low Level Critical Description Extreme disruption to network causing total network operations stoppage Major disruption to main network elements causing major network operations stoppage / disruption Significant disruption to major network elements causing up to 50% loss of capacity with major disruptions to operations Disruption to some operations Non-Critical Little to no Disruption to operations 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 17 Risk-Based Planning and Decision Making E: Extreme risk; H: High risk; M: Medium risk; L: Low risk and N: No risk 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 18 9
10 Risk-Based Planning and Decision Making Scheduling assets for maintenance depends on certain criteria identified during the condition assessment process such as: The significance of the Relative Condition Level; The severity of Condition Impacts; Asset Criticality; and The Asset Category. 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 19 Risk Hierarchy 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 20 10
11 Calculating Asset Risk Score Step-1: Calculate Risk Category Index (RCI): risk score for a given asset under a particular risk category (e.g. operational risk) RCI i = Risk Category Index for category i NRV i = Number of Risk Variables in category i (for example there are 6 variables under economic risk in the above table). WRV i,j = Weight of risk variable number j for category i SRV i,j = Score of risk variable number j for category i. Scores can range from 1 to 100 as shown in the preceding tables. Scores depend on the value of a risk variable (e.g. a 800mm pipe would score 50 in the pipe size risk variable) 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 21 Calculating Asset Risk Score 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 22 11
12 Calculating Asset Risk Score 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 23 Calculating Asset Risk Score Step-2: Calculate the Asset Risk Index (ARI): This is the total score for an individual asset taking into consideration all risk categories. It can be calculated as: WRC i = Weight of risk category i NRC: Number of Risk Categories (for example, economic, operational, social and environmental - 4 categories) Based on the obtained risk score, rate the risk index (High criticality, ARI >80; Medium criticality, 80 > ARI >10; Low criticality, ARI < 10) 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 24 12
13 Calculating Asset Risk Score: Example Calculate the ARI for the following two pipes given the conditions described below: 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 25 Risk Responses Acceptance: Accept the risk as is an do nothing about it. Usually possible with low risks Avoidance: Eliminate the cause of the risk. Remove item all together, stop providing service Mitigation: Accept the risk and try to reduce the consequence and/or Probability. Rehabilitate, proactive condition assessment, emergency response plan. Transfer: Place the responsibility of the risk on a third party. Insurance, Outsourcing 24/11/2015 Emad Elbeltagi 26 13
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