Brexit and Beyond. Michael Bailey, CFA Director of Research Payal Vachhani Research Analyst. July 7, Please questions to:

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1 Brexit and Beyond Michael Bailey, CFA Director of Research Payal Vachhani Research Analyst July 7, 2016 Please questions to:

2 FBB Capital Partners July 7, 2016 presentation disclaimer This presentation and accompanying slides contain time-sensitive information. The information contained in the presentation is only accurate as of the date it was released. FBB Capital Partners will not be reviewing or updating the material that is contained in the webcast or slides. However the information in the presentation may be updated, amended, supplemented or otherwise altered by subsequent presentations or reports by FBB Capital Partners. This webcast and slides do not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell securities nor are they a complete description of our investment policy, the markets, an investing strategy or any securities referred to in the newsletter. Opinions expressed herein are not intended to be used as investment advice. FBB Capital Partners cannot guarantee that your investment goals and objective will be met. All investments carry some degree of risk, including the risk of loss of principal. The presentation, subsequent question and answer session and slides may contain forward looking statements that are based on current expectations or beliefs, as well as assumptions about future events. There are risk factors that could cause our opinions to change and actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by such statements. 2

3 Plenty of fireworks in late Q2 3

4 Speakers Michael Bailey, CFA. As FBB's Director of Research and chair of the Investment Committee, Mike is responsible for monitoring and analyzing macro and micro economic data, secular industry trends, and identifying appropriate investments for clients' portfolios. Previously, Mike spent nearly nine years as a buy-side research analyst with Legg Mason Investment Counsel, which was acquired by Stifel Financial in While at Legg Mason, Mike's primary focus was recommending stocks in the healthcare industry and managing a model healthcare portfolio, while also covering financial and industrial stocks and advising Legg Mason's socially responsible investment (SRI) group. Prior to Legg Mason, Mike was a Vice President and equity research analyst with Bear Stearns, where he followed the medical device industry. Mike's team at Bear Stearns won recognition from Institutional Investor as a highly ranked sell-side research group. Earlier in his career, Mike followed the pharmaceutical and technology industries as well as the automotive sector. Payal Vachhani. As an Investment Research Analyst at FBB, Payal works with Mike Bailey to evaluate economic trends and analyze investment opportunities. She creates financial research summaries, comparative analyses, and valuation models in order to provide the necessary data for the investment committee to make informed and optimal decisions. Previously, she spent three years at AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (an Apartment REIT) as a financial analyst and then a senior financial analyst. Payal was responsible for operational data analysis as well as industry and competitor analysis. Payal is a graduate of the University of Virginia s McIntire School of Commerce with concentrations in finance and marketing. She is currently a Level III candidate in the CFA program. 4

5 Agenda Brexit implications What are stocks worth? Portfolio positioning Q&A 5

6 Investor jitters short-lived S&P500 index: Q Source: Wall Street Journal 6

7 But we do have a new risk factor The Events Year During the initial market reaction it declined for And lost Market returned to precrisis level in Bull market continued for And gained Hunt Brothers silver crisis days -16% 152 days 14 months 13% Asian currency crisis days -11% 45 days 27 months 45% President Eisenhower - heart attack days -10% 76 days 75 months 51% Iraq invades Iran - war days -5% 52 days 7 months 5% Japan earthquake and tsunami days -4% 12 days Ongoing - John F. Kennedy assassinated day -3% 5 days 27 months 36% Watergate days -3% 44 days 7 months 11% Average (of 21 post 1940 bull market crises) CRISES IN BULL MARKETS 8 days -4% 37 days 27 months 45% CRISES IN BEAR MARKETS The Events Year During the initial market reaction it declined for And lost Market Returned to Pre- Crisis Level In Bear market continued for And lost Arab oil embargo days -20% Following bull market 13 months -42% Iraq invades kuwait days -14% Following bull market 2 months -18% Terrorist attack on WTC & Pentagon days -14% 60 days 13 months -24% Six-Day War days -2% 5 days 36 months -27% Average (of 13 post 1940 bear market crises) 15 days -10% N/A* 14 months -25% Source: Northern Trust. 7

8 What are Stocks Worth? Stocks overvalued S&P500 trading at 15.7x earnings, an 8% premium to the 25-year average Stocks undervalued Note: P/E ratios, the price per share divided by earnings per share, are a measure of equity valuation. Higher (lower) P/E ratios suggest more bullish (bearish) investor sentiment. Source: Bloomberg. 8

9 The safety trade: Valuations Staples Utilities REITs & other Region Current 5yr avg Prem/Disc Recent Hi US 18x 15x 19% 18x Utilities 19x 15x 26% 18x More expensive Consumer staples 22x 18x 22% 22x Tech 17x 15x 14% 18x Materials 18x 16x 13% 19x Industrials 17x 15x 10% 18x Financials 14x 13x 8% 16x Healthcare 16x 15x 5% 20x Consumer disc. 18x 18x 1% 21x Less expensive MID CAPS 20x 18x 9% 21x SMALL CAPS 20x 19x 2% 23x EU 13x 12x 6% 16x Japan 16x 17x -10% 21x China 14x 11x 25% 20x Brazil 14x 12x 15% 15x India 17x 16x 10% 19x 7/5/2016 9

10 Stocks vs. Bonds 10

11 Beyond Brexit: FBB s playbook Offense and defense Volatility Self-help themes U.S.-focused growth Interest rates to remain low Underweight banks Overweight non-bank financials Dividends 11

12 What gets the market going? Corporate profits (green line) Stock prices (white line) Source: Bloomberg. Data on S&P500 from 1990 to

13 Conclusion Question and answer session Please questions to: 13

14 Thanks for joining us! Please stay tuned for our July 28 call (2pm) with Greg Valliere, a Political and Policy analyst, as we discuss the investment implications of the 2016 presidential election. For nearly 40 years, Greg Valliere has analyzed Washington policies for investors. Greg is the cofounder and Chief Strategist of the Investor Education Speakers Bureau, which sponsors him in over 50 speeches per year to investor groups around the country. Greg specializes in coverage of the Federal Reserve, economic policies, taxes, regulatory affairs and -- of course -- politics. He has headed Washington offices for many firms, including a lengthy stint as Director of Research at the Charles Schwab Washington Research Group. Greg is frequently quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Barrons, the New York Times and Politico. He also is a regular guest on CNBC, Fox Business TV, CNN and Bloomberg TV, and he is a frequent contributor to CBS radio. Greg is known for his non-partisan, pragmatic approach to how Washington affects the markets. A graduate of George Washington University, Greg and his wife Mary live in downtown DC, at the Watergate. 14