J.P. Morgan Country Insights. THE CHANGING DYNAMIC OF PAYMENTS IN EUROPE Finland

Transcription

1 J.P. Morgan Country Insights THE CHANGING DYNAMIC OF PAYMENTS IN EUROPE Finland

2 Introduction Finland s GDP growth is expected to remain above the EU average in 2018 and 2019, at 2.7% and 2.4% respectively. 1 There are a number of positive indicators helping to drive this scenario. Private consumption is expected to increase 1.8% in 2018 and 1.6% in while unemployment is falling and is set to hit 8.0% by These factors should help support retail spending, although there is expected to be increased price competition in the sector. Supermarkets, for example, are cutting prices as they battle for market share. 4 Some vulnerabilities exist such as higher household indebtedness, mainly in the form of mortgages alongside a rapidly aging population, which may strain public finances and have a dampening effect on output growth. 5 This information is based on projected figures and is subject to change at any time [ 2 ]

3 Finland At a glance Population 5.5m Average age GDP B2C ecommerce market value 42.4 years 215.6bn 8bn Internet penetration 92.5% Smartphone penetration 55% Card penetration per capita 2.33 (debit & credit) Source: World Bank 2018, CIA 2016, KAUPPA.FI & E-commerce Foundation 2016, Internet Live Stats 2016, GlobalData 2016, Stat.fi Finland: Consumer spending 2015 July July 2016 Source: Trading Economics, Statistics Finland 2017 July ,400 27,200 27,000 26,800 26,600 26, ,00 26,000 EUR Millions Finland has been one of the slower countries in our study* to embrace ecommerce. 6 What s more, growth in online shopping has slowed in recent years the market grew 11.1% to generate 8bn of sales in 2016, but growth was higher two years earlier, at 13.8%. 7 While Finland s GDP is growing faster than the European average, the country is dealing with the aftermath of a decade of sluggish growth and its unemployment rate (8.5% in uary 2018) is higher than the EU-28 average of 7.3%. 8 This up-and-down economic trajectory has led to a predicted 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for ecommerce to 2020, 9 the second-lowest CAGR prediction of the countries included in this study. Bricks-and-mortar stores stay in the lead Another major clue to explain Finland s relatively slow growing ecommerce market is offered by the lack of investment made by retailers. The internet in Finland is primarily viewed as a destination for socialising and research rather than e-tail. 10,11 Indeed, only half of all Finnish consumers aged shop online on a monthly basis. 12 As a result, key shopping categories such as online food shopping have failed to take off, 13 with well-known local brands such as K-Group and discount chain Lidl dominating the bricks-and-mortar space instead. Despite this underwhelming growth, the country continues to present considerable opportunity. In particular, international e-tailers should look to Finland as a nation with a strong interest in foreign products. It is estimated that 42% of online purchases were made with nondomestic e-tailers rather than within Finland s borders in 2016, 14 with Germany, China, the UK, Sweden and the US standing out as the most popular destinations. Women s clothing, in particular, is frequently bought from abroad, with consumers seeking the wider choice and pricing options on offer in more developed ecommerce markets. 15 [ 3 ]

4 ecommerce: % of total sales by segment 100% Digital Goods 58% Online travel agents (OTAs)/ Tour Operators 98% Airlines 55% Accommodation/ Hotels High-budget shoppers looking for big discounts Encouragingly, there are signs that the Finnish ecommerce market is ripe for development. Even if the overall percentage of online spending within the 5.5 million-strong population is lower than in other countries, the opportunity for retailers to reach high-spending consumers is significant. Finnish shoppers spent an average 2,170 a year online in 2015, well above the annual European average of 1, % Public Transit (metro/rail/bus) 13% Consumer Electronics 5% Mass Merchandise 20% Fashion/ Apparel 5% Department Stores 4% Grocery/ Supermarkets Finnish shoppers may have large budgets, but they still want to find a good deal. The number of online orders in December 2017 increased by 9.2% compared with December in However, sale values in euros in the same month only increased by 3%, as Christmas and Black Friday deals resulted in heavy discounting. 17 Domestic retailers are also realising that they need to catch up with their European counterparts. Finnish grocery retailer K-Group, for instance, has begun a cooperation with Alibaba to enter into ecommerce in China, with the aim of learning more about ecommerce best practice from its Chinese counterpart. 18 Source: J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company, via via emarketer & E-commerce Europe, 2016 ecommerce penetration (%) Card penetration per capita At present, this means consumers have to handle more complex postage, returns and import processes. Like Switzerland, which has also predicted single-digit growth, Finland has been underserved by ecommerce retailers, both foreign and domestic, perhaps as a result of the aforementioned historical tendency within Finland to view the internet as a place for research rather than commerce. Many large international brands do not have dedicated Finnish ecommerce sites, also driving Finnish shoppers overseas. Metric indicator DEBIT CREDIT TOTAL Debit card per capita (ecommerce enabled) Credit card per capita (ecommerce enabled) Total cards per capita (ecommerce enabled) Total Source: J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via GlobalData 2016 [ 4 ]

5 A long way to go for smartphones Although smartphone penetration in Finland stood at 55% in 2016, 19 Finland still has a way to go before online shopping via mobile phone becomes ubiquitous. Only 20% of shoppers make purchases on their smartphones, compared with an average 36.4% across Europe. 20 However, trust and interest is growing in smartphone shopping, particularly among under-25's. 21 Desktop computers, laptops and tablets remain the dominant method for shopping online, with 80% of ecommerce consumers preferring non-smartphone channels. 22 Internet infrastructure is well developed in the Finnish market, and almost 100% of those aged 55 or under used the internet in When paying, there is a strong preference for bank transfers. Finland has a 100% banked population, 24 which means shoppers are used to online transactions. Bank transfers were used for 53% 25 of payment totaling 4.24bn of sales in 2016, 26 despite the method s issues with payment reconciliation and receipt timing. Cards were the second most popular method after bank transfers, used for 31% of transactions 27 or 2.48bn of sales. 28 Payment method split by value (%) E-wallets: a small but growing payment method E-wallets only accounted for 12% of transactions in 2016, but the value of sales is growing rapidly, rising from 0.43bn 29 of sales in 2015 to 0.96bn in This has been aided by the rise of e-wallet services from major banks OP-Pohjola, the largest national bank, has launched mobile wallet Pivo, 31 and PayPal has made inroads into the Finnish market, taking 10% of the alternative payment market. 32 Sweden s Klarna, too, is used in around 5-10% of alternative payments. 33 While Finland s ecommerce growth predictions may be less dramatic than other European countries, it is an ecommerce market with opportunities for e-tailers and payment providers who make the effort to court its high-spending, digitally-savvy customers. Penetration of alternative payment methods (%) 53% 31% 4% 12% Klarna 5-10% PayPal 10% Verkkopankki 45% Bank Transfer Card Other E Wallet Source: J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Postnord, ecommerce in the Nordics Source: J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company [ 5 ]

6 * J.P. Morgan's The Changing Dynamics of Alternative Payments in Europe study includes the following countries: UK, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Finland. References [1] European Commission, Economic Forecast for Finland. Accessed uary [2] European Commission, Economic Forecast for Finland. Accessed uary [3] European Commission, Economic Forecast for Finland. Accessed uary [4] UUTISET, Price competition lowers food costs, via Statistics Finland. Accessed March [5] OECD, Finland - Economic forecast summary (November 2017). Accessed uary [6] Postnord, E-Commerce in the Nordics Accessed March [7] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via KAUPPA.FI & E-commerce Foundation, 2016 [8] Eurostat, Unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted, uary Available at: adjusted,_uary_2018_(%25)_f2.png. Accessed March [9] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company. [10] Export.gov, August Finland Country Commercial Guide. Accessed uary [11] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via GlobalData (2016), emarketer (2016), E-Commerce Foundation (2016), EDC Estimate (2017). [12] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via GlobalData (2016), emarketer (2016), E-Commerce Foundation (2016), EDC Estimate (2017). [13] Kuudes Insights, June Tiesitkö tämän suomalaisesta ruuan verkkokaupasta? Accessed uary [14] Euromonitor, uary Internet Retailing in Finland. Accessed March [15] Export.gov, August Finland Country Commercial Guide. Accessed uary [16] E-commerce Foundation, Global B2C E-commerce Report Accessed March [17] Vilkas Group.com, uary Q4: The end of the year broke previous records. Accessed uary [18] K Group.com, September K Group enters into cooperation with Alibaba to open a food online store in China. Accessed uary [19] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via GlobalData, 2016 [20] Postnord, E-Commerce in the Nordics Accessed March [21] Export.gov, August Finland Country Commercial Guide. Accessed uary [22] Postnord, E-Commerce in the Nordics Accessed March [23] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Internet Live Stats & Eurostat, [24] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via GlobalData, [25] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Timetric, KAUPPA,Fi, Postnord, ecommerce in the Nordics, 2017 [26] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Timetric, KAUPPA,Fi, Postnord, ecommerce in the Nordics, 2017 [27] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Timetric, KAUPPA,Fi, Postnord, ecommerce in the Nordics, 2017 [28] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Timetric, KAUPPA,Fi, Postnord, ecommerce in the Nordics, 2017 [29] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Timetric, KAUPPA,Fi, Postnord, ecommerce in the Nordics, 2017 [30] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company via Timetric, KAUPPA,Fi, Postnord, ecommerce in the Nordics, 2017 [31] nordkapp.fi. Pivo The finnish Mobile Wallet. Accessed March [32] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company. [33] J.P. Morgan Country Insights: The Changing Dynamic of Payments in Europe: Data has been provided to J.P. Morgan Merchant Services by Edgar, Dunn and Company. 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