13th China-EU Round Table

Transcription

1 European Economic and Social Committee 13th China-EU Round Table China-EU Investment Relations Rapporteur: Chen Xin November 18-19, 2013 Chengdu, China 1

2 I. General Trends Firstly, neither party considers the other party as main investment destination. The largest investment destination of EU is the United States while the largest investment destination of China is Asia. According to the data of EuroStat, the investment of EU in China accounted for only 4.8% of its investment in non-member states in 2011; the largest investment destination of EU was the United States in the year, accounting for 33.8%. Meanwhile, the investment of the United States in EU accounted for 62.2% of the total investment EU received from non-member states, while China only contributed 1.3% 1. In , 76% of foreign investment received by the United States was from Europe. Likewise, China s investment in Europe only accounted for 11.1% of its overseas investment in the year, while the investment in China s largest investment destination Asia accounted for 60.9% 2. In terms of accumulated amount, China s investment in Europe is only 7% of its total overseas investment, ranking third. The region receiving most investment is Asia (68.5%), followed by Latin America (12.8%). Secondly, from the perspective of accumulated amount, the investment of EU in China is much higher than the investment of China in Europe. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, up till December 2003, the 15 member states of EU had established 16,158 companies in China, with billion dollars of contract utilization of European capital and billion dollars of paid-in European capital. In terms of accumulated amount of paid-in foreign capital, EU ranked fourth among countries and regions investing in China, behind Hong Kong, the United States and Japan. In the same period, China established 432 companies in the 15 EU member states, with 222 million dollars of contract amount of Chinese investment, less than 1% of the investment China received from EU 3. By 2011, according to the data of EuroStat, China s investment in Europe only accounted for 1.4% of the total investment of non-member states, while EU s investment in China accounted for 20% of total foreign investment China received, ranking fifth, behind Taiwan, Hong Kong, the United States and Japan. In that year, China invested 3.1 billion Euros in EU, and EU invested 17.8 billion Euros in China 4. In 2012, China invested 3.5 billion Euros in EU, and EU invested 10 billion Euros in China 5. Thirdly, from the perspective of increment, China s investment in EU started late, but it grows fast. In the recent years, China s investment in Europe greatly outspeeds Europe s investment in China. Under the impact of European debt crisis, the growth speed of EU s investment in China shows a trend of decrease in the recent years. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, from January to December 2012, China approved establishment of 24,925 foreign-invested enterprises, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%; and actually utilized billion dollars of EuroStat, Foreign direct investment statistics, interview on July 28, Ministry of Commerce, National Bureau of Statistics and State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Statistical Communiqué on Overseas Direct Investment of China in DG Trade, Facts and Figures on EU-China Trade, April EuroStat NewsRelease, 91/ June

3 foreign capital, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. Among them, EU27 member states actually input 6.11 billion dollars of foreign capital, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% 6. In the same time, China s investment in Europe shows a trend of fast growth in the recent years. According to the statistics of Chinese Ministry of Commerce, in 2010, China s investment in Europe was doubled on the basis of increase by 2.8 folds in 2009 and the flow reached 6.76 billion dollars, increasing by 101.6% year on year, accounting for 9.8% of total flow and going up four percentage points compared to the previous year 7. By 2011, China s investment in Europe realized growth for consecutive three years, and the flow in the year was 8.25 billion dollars, increasing by 22.1% year on year and accounting for 11.1% of the total flow, including billion dollars of investment in EU, a year-on-year growth of 26.8% 8. This situation was changed in In that year, China s investment in Europe fell 14.7% year on year in flow, to billion dollars 9, still higher than that in Besides, China-Europe mutual investment is in serious disproportion to China-Europe trade volume. China s trade to Europe grew fast in the past decade. In a time, it was about to replace the United States and become the largest trade partner of EU. In the same time, EU has remained as China s largest trade partner since For many years, it has been China s largest export market. According to the data of EuroStat, China-Europe trade exceeded 100 billion Euros in 2001, 200 billion Euros in 2005 and 300 billion Euros in 2007, was closed to 400 billion Euros in 2010 and exceeded 430 billion Euros in In 2010 and 2011, China and the United States were locked in the contention for the largest trade partner of EU. China-EU trade was less than 17 billion Euros behind US-EU trade. In 2012, this gap was broadened to more than 60 billion Euros. The gap between China and the United States over the position as the largest trade partner of EU was widened again. Compared with the rapid development of China-Europe trade in the recent 10 years, China-EU mutual investment, particularly, China s investment in EU, lagged much behind. The total amount of US-EU mutual investment is 1.1 trillion Euros, while EU s investment in China is 60 billion Euros and China s investment in EU is 31.5 billion dollars. Under Trans-Atlantic background, compared with the mutual investment between EU and the USA, the mutual investment between China and EU is insignificant. In a word, investment becomes a lame leg of China-EU economic and trade relations. Regardless of financial crisis and European debt crisis, the growth rate of EU-US mutual investment is much higher than the growth rate of China-EU mutual investment. Investment drives trade and further drives employment and growth. The mutual investment between EU and the United States forms a solid economic foundation of the Trans-Atlantic relationship. Therefore, the further deepening of China-EU trade relations shouldn t rest on increase of export to EU and shouldn t only set a target of the largest trade partner of EU. Instead, China needs to consolidate the cornerstone of China-EU trade relations to a deeper degree, that is to increase two-way investment Ministry of Commerce, National Bureau of Statistics and State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Statistical Communiqué on Overseas Direct Investment of China in 2010 Ministry of Commerce, National Bureau of Statistics and State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Statistical Communiqué on Overseas Direct Investment of China in 2011 Ministry of Commerce, National Bureau of Statistics and State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Statistical Communiqué on Overseas Direct Investment of China in

4 II. Country-specific Investment of China in Europe At the end of 2012, China had nearly 2000 directly invested companies in EU and employed 42,000 local people. In view of countries, the investment was concentrated, mainly in Britain, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Sweden and Holland; and meanwhile covered all of the 28 EU member states. In view of countries, the top 10 countries receiving investment of China in 2010 include EU member states Luxembourg and Sweden and the top 20 countries also include EU member states Germany and Hungary. Except that the investment in Luxembourg focuses on business service, China s investment in other three countries mainly flowed to manufacturing sector. The investment was billion dollars in Luxembourg, billion dollars in Sweden, 412 million dollars in Germany and 370 million dollars in Hungary. The top 10 countries receiving investment of China in 2011 include EU member states France, Britain and Luxembourg. The top 10 countries receiving investment of China in 2012 include EU member states Britain billion dollars and Luxembourg billion dollars and the top 20 countries also include EU member state Germany 799 million dollars. In view of total amount, by the end of 2012, China had cumulatively invested billion dollars in Europe, accounting for 7% of China s total overseas investment 10. The countries receiving more than one billion dollars of cumulative investment from China include Luxembourg, Britain, France, Germany, Sweden and Holland. The top ten investment receivers include Luxembourg (7 th place, billion dollars) and Britain (8 th place, billion dollars), and the top 20 also include France (13 th place, billion dollars) and Germany (15 th place, billion dollars). In view of China s investment in EU, in 2012, France remained to be China s largest investment destination in Europe and 21% of China s investment projects in Europe were in France. Following France were Britain and Germany, 16% and 7% respectively 11. China became France s eighth largest source country of foreign capital in Table 1 Regional composition of flow of China s overseas direct investment in Region Amount (billion dollars) Year-on-year growth (%) Ratio (%) Asia Africa Europe Latin America North America Ministry of Commerce, National Bureau of Statistics and State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Statistical Communiqué on Overseas Direct Investment of China in Economic and Commercial Counsellor s Office of the Ministry of Commerce in France, interview on April 25, Economic and Commercial Counsellor s Office of the Ministry of Commerce in France, interview on April 25,

5 Oceania Total Data source: Ministry of Commerce, National Bureau of Statistics and State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Statistical Communiqué on Overseas Direct Investment of China in 2010, Statistical Communiqué on Overseas Direct Investment of China in 2011 and Statistical Communiqué on Overseas Direct Investment of China in III. Sector Distribution of China s Investment in Europe In 2012, the investment flow of China in EU was 6.12 billion dollars, accounting for 7% of its total flow. In view of sector distribution, billion dollars flowed to manufacturing sector, accounting for 29.5%, mainly distributed in Britain, Sweden, Germany, France, Italy, Holland and Austria; billion dollars flowed to leasing and business service sector, accounting for 20.6%, mainly distributed in Luxembourg, Britain and Germany; billion dollars flowed to financial sector, accounting for 17.1%, mainly distributed in Britain, Germany, Luxembourg, Italy, France, Hungary and Ireland; 852 million dollars flowed to transportation, storage and post service sector, accounting for 13.9%, mainly distributed in Britain and Germany; 427 million dollars flowed to wholesale and retail sector, accounting for 7%, mainly distributed in Britain, Belgium, Germany, France and Bulgaria. By the end of 2012, China s total investment in EU was billion dollars, accounting for 5.9% of its total overseas investment. In view of sector distribution, billion dollars flowed to leasing and business service sector, accounting for 30.7%; mainly distributed in Luxembourg, Germany, France, Italy and Hungary; billion dollars flowed to manufacturing sector, accounting for 20%, mainly distributed in Sweden, Britain, Germany, Holland, France, Italy, Span, Austria, Hungary and Romania; billion dollars flowed to mining sector, accounting for 12%, mainly distributed in France, Britain, Holland and Luxembourg; billion dollars flowed to transportation and storage sector, accounting for 3.7%, mainly distributed in Britain, Germany and Belgium; the investment in scientific research and technical service sector accounted for 2.3%, the investment in production and supply of electric power, heating power, fuel gas, water and other utilities accounted for 2.1%, the investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery accounted for 1.2%, and the investment in real estate accounted for 0.9%. Some unofficial statistical data also pay great attention to China s investment in Europe in the recent years. A research report released by PWC on November 19, 2012 reveals 13 that China s investment in Europe was 11 billion Euros in 2011, surpassing European companies s in China in the first time. The report indicates Chinese state-owned companies are main forces of investment in Europe. From 2006 to 2012 Q1, in the top 20 cross-border mergers and acquisitions of China in Europe, 90% of the investment was from state-owned companies and sovereign wealth funds. On the contrary, in the top 20 cases of Europe s investment in China, 50% of the investment was from private companies. More and more Chinese private companies are looking for opportunities of overseas merger and acquisition. It is estimated that Chinese private companies will quicken their steps of overseas investment. The transaction

6 amount of Chinese companies investment in Europe is large in energy, public utilities, mining and infrastructure sectors. The transaction quantity in industrial product sector is the largest, followed by telecom media and technology, and retail and consumption sector. China s investment in Germany grows steadily all the time recently and exceeded the investment in Britain in 2011, accounting for 20% of China s cross-border trade volume to Europe, even reaching 28% in the first quarter of In 2011, France replaced Britain to become the largest investing country of Europe to China and contributed 26% and 35% of the total in 2011 and 2012 respectively 14. A report released by Rhodium Group in February 2013 indicates that due to the investment opportunities created by European debt crisis, the investment Europe attracted from China was twice the investment it attracted from the United States in the recent two years 15. This report thinks China is vigorously promoting investment in Europe. Before 2008, the average amount of investment of China in Europe was less than one billion dollars, but the amount rose sharply to three billion dollars in 2009 and 2010, and to 10 billion dollars in 2011 and China s investment in Europe is mostly in resources, public sector, auto and auto parts manufacturing, machinery manufacturing and chemical industry. IV. Problems with China s Investment in Europe The investments of Chinese companies in Europe have diversified investment destinations. Some are for getting closer to end-user market, some are for acquiring better technologies, some are for transferring production owing to labor cost, some are for establishing R&D bases and some are for participating in infrastructure construction. The different extents of economic development of EU member states provide multiple choices for investment of Chinese companies. Meanwhile, EU SMEs play an important role in European economy and are active in all sectors. This provides a broad angle of view for the entry of Chinese companies into Europe. Anyhow, the investment in Europe also faces a series of risks and barriers. For example, Europe has many languages, different national cultures and business habits, and different economic and legal environments. These require Chinese companies to do much preparatory work rather than act in a hurry. Besides, some EU member states and press circles strongly oppose Chinese companies investment in Europe, particularly the acquisitions in some strategic sectors. The review titled Dangerous Dependence published in German Die Welt says Europe should be cautious of falling into permanent dependence on China. A report of British Daily Telegraph says European debt crisis is the best chance for China to enlarge its influence in Europe. These discussions have generated unfavorable impact on China s investment in Europe. V. Investment Opportunities of China in Europe and Suggestions China s investment in Europe is relatively small. In the recent years, due to the impact of financial crisis and European debt crisis, the demand of Europe for foreign investment increases. It creates an opportunity for China to enlarge investment in Europe. Here a few points are listed Thilo Hanemann, Chinese Investment: Europe vs. the United States, February 25, Interview on July 21,

7 1. Investment sectors: In view of sector distribution, leasing and business service, manufacturing and finance receive 70% of China s investment in Europe. Therefore, the existing sectors should be consolidated and new sectors should be developed. Table 2 Ratios of accumulated amount and flow of China s investment in three sectors of Europe Leasing and business service Manufacturing Finance Accumulated amount 30% 20% 21% Flow 20% 30% 17% China s financial investment in Europe has become a new highlight of China-EU economic and trade cooperation. From the perspective of financial investment, China and Europe show increasing interest in establishing a good financial service environment to make for bilateral financial investment. In September 2011, Sino-British Fourth Financial and Economic Dialogue called for continuous tightening of bilateral financial cooperation and initiation of negotiations on cooperation in audit supervision of capital market to promote healthy development of the capital markets of the two countries 16. It not only helps the capital markets of the two sides create a good development environment but also helps the audit supervision standards of the two countries realize connection and the financial capital of each country enter another country s markets. In November 2011, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne expressed during his visit to China, he will discuss with all related departments of China to promote cooperation between Chinese and British banks and set up a renminbi offshore settlement center in London 17. The establishment of a renminbi offshore settlement center in London helps increase the breadth of British financial market and add more products, and also helps bring renminbi into global financial market and facilitates China-EU bilateral trade and investment. The Sino-British currency swap agreement of 200 billion yuan and 20 billion pounds signed not long before pushed bilateral financial cooperation to a deeper level. China and Europe s series moves aiming at jointly improving and optimizing financial market environment indicate China-EU financial investment and cooperation are being deepened. The increase of Chinese visitors to EU creates many good opportunities for Chinese companies investment in tourist-related sectors, including aviation service, tourist catering, tourist hotel, holiday hotel and SPA. China and EU may engage in broader cooperation in the deepening of tourist products to promote further enlargement of China s investment in EU. In addition, China may also drive investment in construction industry and other related sectors by promoting investment in infrastructure in EU. Storage, logistics, R&D and education are all golden mines waiting for Chinese companies. 2. Develop new investment destinations: When we talk of China s investment in EU, usually people may think of British financial service sector, R&D capacity

8 of Northern Europe, manufacturing of Central Europe, and design ability and tourist resources of Southern Europe. In fact, we face an ample Europe. We need to get rid of some blocked thinking modes and develop new investment destinations. Central and Eastern Europe is particularly noteworthy. Chinese investors don t pay enough attention to this region. The success of German economy benefits from Euro. Another secret weapon of German economy is the labor force from Central and Eastern Europe. Germany has made enormous investment in Central and Eastern Europe. The low cost and high quality of the local labor force inject fresh blood for enhancement of competitiveness of German products. For example, VW Touareg imported by China is produced in Slovakia, Audi engines are produced in Hungary, Benz A series and B series are produced in Hungary. The China Central and Eastern Europe Cooperation Mechanism officially established in 2012 will provide a policy framework for promotion of China s investment in Central and Eastern Europe. 3. Increase cooperation of SMEs: China s investment in Europe should not only pay attention to large and medium companies but also pay particular attention to SMEs. German SMEs have a spirit of being top 3 in their specific fields. The spirit of continuous progress is an important factor supporting the success of German economy. Therefore, Chinese companies need to dig up these excellent EU SMEs in related fields and carry out reciprocal cooperation with them to widen the horizon of China s investment in EU. 8