The Gas Value Chain Company GmbH

Transcription

1 Washington Oil & Gas Forum 2015 Cosmos Club, Washington, DC, 16 July 2015 by Dr. Wolfgang Peters, MBA Chairman Board of Directors, CEO, RWE Supply & Trading CZ, a.s., Czech Republic Managing Director,, Germany 1

2 1. Introduction 2. Commercial Context of U.S. Natural Gas Export Aspirations 3. Evolution of the European Natural Gas Markets 4. Changes of the European Natural Gas Markets since Geopolitics, Security of Supply & European Energy Union 6. U.S. Shale Gas Exports: Asia or Europe? 7. An Aside: Export Ban on U.S. Crude Oil 8. Outlook 2

3 New Elephants in Frontier Areas German Gas War German Reunification Single European Market Czech Rep. joins NATO/EU Dutch Liberalization Phase 1 Merger Exxon Mobil Dutch Liberalization Phase 2 Midstream Consolidation NABUCCO Czech Liberalization Energie Wende Gas-to-Oil Spread Arbitrations Shale Gas Revolution 3

4 Key figures for the RWE Group: 2014 > External revenue 48.5 billion > Operating result 4.0 billion > Cash flow from operating activities 5.6 billion > Credit rating Baa1 stable Moody s, BBB+ stable S&P > Electricity production TWh > Electricity sales volume TWh > Gas purchases 35 bcm > Workforce Source: RWE 2014 Annual Report 4

5 Total power plant capacity 49,036 MW Hard coal 9,950 MW Lignite 11,071 MW Gas 16,440 MW Nuclear 3,901 MW Renewable energy 3,496 MW Pumped storage, oil, other 4,178 MW Under construction RWE has the largest portfolio in Germany and is a major player in Northwest Europe. RWEST Commercial Asset Optimisation manages full power plant optionality. Note: Only power plants with a capacity of >200 MW in February 2014 are displayed on the map. Numbers taken from annual report

6 Example: Gersteinwerk (since 2012 only in winter mode) Production in June and July 2009 Megawatt Production in June and July 2011 Megawatt June 2009 July June 2011 July

7 7

8 Project Management Analysis/Planning of Going-In Strategy Commercial Expert Advice Multi-Disciplinary Team Facilitation Negotiations, Dispute Resolution Expert Witness (e.g. in Arbitration) Dr. Wolfgang Peters Managing Director Uhlenhorstweg 17 Mobile: Mülheim Fax: Germany Mail: Web: 8

9 1. Introduction 2. Commercial Context of U.S. Natural Gas Export Aspirations 3. Evolution of the European Natural Gas Markets 4. Changes of the European Natural Gas Markets since Geopolitics, Security of Supply & European Energy Union 6. U.S. Shale Gas Exports: Asia or Europe? 7. An Aside: Export Ban on U.S. Crude Oil 8. Outlook 9

10 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook

11 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June

12 Source: BRG Energy 12

13 Source: BRG Energy 13

14 1. Introduction 2. Commercial Context of U.S. Natural Gas Export Aspirations 3. Evolution of the European Natural Gas Markets 4. Changes of the European Natural Gas Markets since Geopolitics, Security of Supply & European Energy Union 6. U.S. Shale Gas Exports: Asia or Europe? 7. An Aside: Export Ban on U.S. Crude Oil 8. Outlook 14

15 Past Evolution of European Gas Market since ~1960: - Monopoly Grid Areas - Pricing aimed at displacing competing fuels (oil indexation) - Value Chain integral from burner tip to import point Primary Energy Share: <1% in 1960; ~24% in 2014 Previous Structural Synchronology: Integral Value Chain Retail Wholesale Import Indifference Principle Competing Substitute Fuels > Coal, Gasoil, Fuel Oil GAS Net-Back from Retail GAS Net-Back from Wholesale 15

16 1. Introduction 2. Commercial Context of U.S. Natural Gas Export Aspirations 3. Evolution of the European Natural Gas Markets 4. Changes of the European Natural Gas Markets since Geopolitics, Security of Supply & European Energy Union 6. U.S. Shale Gas Exports: Asia or Europe? 7. An Aside: Export Ban on U.S. Crude Oil 8. Outlook 16

17 Economic downturn Liquid traded markets Markets lagging behind East-West Gas Flow NBP TTF Regulatory Changes US Shale gas revolution NCG CZ VTP Slo VTP 17

18 Monthly oil-indexed price compared with NCG M+1 18

19 19

20 Source: IEA Gas Medium-Term Market Report

21 1. Introduction 2. Commercial Context of U.S. Natural Gas Export Aspirations 3. Evolution of the European Natural Gas Markets 4. Changes of the European Natural Gas Markets since Geopolitics, Security of Supply & European Energy Union 6. U.S. Shale Gas Exports: Asia or Europe? 7. An Aside: Export Ban on U.S. Crude Oil 8. Outlook 21

22 22

23 Source: IEA Gas Medium-Term Market Report

24 24

25 Source: Naftogaz c 25

26 1) Source: 26

27 Source: IEA Gas Medium-Term Market Report

28 Source: IEA Gas Medium-Term Market Report

29 1. Introduction 2. Commercial Context of U.S. Natural Gas Export Aspirations 3. Evolution of the European Natural Gas Markets 4. Changes of the European Natural Gas Markets since Geopolitics, Security of Supply & European Energy Union 6. U.S. Shale Gas Exports: Asia or Europe? 7. An Aside: Export Ban on U.S. Crude Oil 8. Outlook 29

30 30

31 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook

32 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook

33 1. Introduction 2. Commercial Context of U.S. Natural Gas Export Aspirations 3. Evolution of the European Natural Gas Markets 4. Changes of the European Natural Gas Markets since Geopolitics, Security of Supply & European Energy Union 6. U.S. Shale Gas Exports: Asia or Europe? 7. An Aside: Export Ban on U.S. Crude Oil 8. Outlook 33

34 Source: Telebörse 34

35 Source: 35

36 1. Introduction 2. Commercial Context of U.S. Natural Gas Export Aspirations 3. Evolution of the European Natural Gas Markets 4. Changes of the European Natural Gas Markets since Geopolitics, Security of Supply & European Energy Union 6. U.S. Shale Gas Exports: Asia or Europe? 7. An Aside: Export Ban on U.S. Crude Oil 8. Outlook 36

37 Source: IEA Gas Medium-Term Market Report

38 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook

39 Dr. Wolfgang Peters Managing Director Uhlenhorstweg 17 Mobile: Mülheim Fax: Germany Mail: Web: 39

40 40

41 Turkey: 47 bcm/a consumption Turkish Stream: 63 bcm/a Azerbaijan: 20 bcm/a? SCP Turkmenistan: 30 bcm/a? Turkey: In theory, additional 180+ bcm/a might enter the Turkish gas market Cyprus? Iraq: 30 bcm/a? Iran: max. 40 bcm/a? Existing pipeline Projected pipeline Potential pipeline 41