RBI s Overview of the State Finances. July 18, 2018 I ECONOMICS. Overview of state finances
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1 RBI s Overview of the State Finances Contact: Madan Sabnavis Chief Economist madan.sabnavis@careratings.com Purnima M. Nair Associate Economist purnima.nair@careratings.com Mradul Mishra (Media Contact) mradul.mishra@careratings.com Overview of state finances July 18, 2018 I ECONOMICS The RBI s study on state finances for FY18 and FY19 provides in depth analysis of the performance of states as well as challenges that confront them in the coming year. The introduction of GST has been a major reform that will affect state finances going ahead, while the UDAY bonds issued by participating states have added another dimension to their outstanding liabilities. The RBI is however concerned about revenue slippages, higher expenses on account of Pay Commission, loan waivers, subsides etc. The following is the summary of the Report of the RBI States consolidated gross fiscal deficit (GFD) overshot the budget estimates in due to shortfalls in own tax revenues and higher revenue expenditure. Against the backdrop of heightened pressure on budgets in and from the Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY), states targeted to lower the gross fiscal deficit to 2.7% of GDP in , hoping to undershoot the 3.0% norm crossing the FRBM threshold for the third consecutive year. For , states have budgeted for a consolidated GFD of 2.6% of GDP, with 11 states planning to remain above the 3% threshold. Consolidation is mainly expected to accrue from the revenue balance, which is expected to post a surplus of 0.2% of GDP in (BE) as against a deficit of 0.4% in (RE) Disclaimer: This report is prepared by CARE Ratings Ltd. CARE Ratings has taken utmost care to ensure accuracy and objectivity while developing this report based on information available in public domain. However, neither the accuracy nor completeness of information contained in this report is guaranteed. CARE Ratings is not responsible for any errors or omissions in analysis/inferences/views or for results obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that CARE Ratings has no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report A slippage of 0.40 percentage points of GDP in the consolidated revenue deficit and 0.35 percentage points of GDP in the GFD occurred on account of overshooting of revenue expenditure by 13 basis points (bps), mainly due to farm loan waivers, pay revisions, and shortfall of revenue receipts by 27 bps mainly due to states own taxes declining by 0.33% of GDP vis-a-vis the BE. This shortfall in own tax revenues was partly offset by transfers from the Centre. Table 1 and 2 gives the summary of the major deficit indicators for states, individually and all states taken together. For FY estimates, Goa and Punjab overshoot the prescribed GFD/GSDP ratios by wide margins. The FY revised estimates of GFD/GSDP for Bihar is 7.2% while their budgeted estimate for FY have been projected at 2%.
2 Table 1: Major Deficit Indicators of State Governments: All States (Rs Billion) Table 2: Deficit Indicators of State Governments: Sate-wise (Per cent) 2
3 Revenue The decline in states tax revenues is essentially associated with the pending accounting issues related to GST implementation. Table 3: Aggregate Receipts of State Governments In , states revenue capacity is likely to be augmented with the stabilisation of GST and the consequent expansion of tax base and efficacy. With the implementation of the E-way bill for inter-state movement of goods from April 2018, states could also strive for generating more revenues by locking in efficiency in tax administration. Table 4 shows that by FY18-19 estimates the SGST for states is to be double the amount given by the FY RE. Similarly, CGST is estimated to be 4 times the FY RE amount. However, reportage of states for all the GST Components is far from complete. Thus, as the reportage of states increases, clearly the tax amount collected would also rise. Table 4: GST Stylized Facts 3
4 The rise in the SGST component, does not seem to have a very significant effect on the states own tax revenue, which is estimated to rise only marginally for FY 18-19, as a percentage of GDP Table 5: Disaggregated States Own Tax Revenue (Percentage to GDP) Pressure points on expenditure Wages and salaries constitute a significant portion of the committed liabilities of states, accounting for 23.6% of their combined revenue expenditure in , followed by pensions (10.8%). The seventh central pay commission (CPC) recommended revisions in the salary and other emoluments, including housing rent allowance (HRA). Some states follow their own pay commission rules while others follow CPC rules. Moreover, implementation has not been either uniform or complete. Although states like Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have implemented their pay commission awards from January 2016 in line with the seventh CPC, actual payments for most of these states were made in As regards arrear payments, most of the states Some other states like Assam, Karnataka, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, Telangana and Kerala revise their emoluments from time to time as per their own pay commission rules. Assam, Karnataka, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura have effected pay revisions in Committed expenditure under this head may have a bearing on the fiscal balance of 12 states in and nine states in , with payment of arrears getting stretched to and for a few of them. All states taken together are bigger employers than the center. Furthermore, most states do not fulfill the norm of salary expenditure not exceeding 35% of revenue expenditure Among the factors responsible for fiscal stress in certain states are farm loan waivers that have been announced since 2014, often justified on the grounds of falling prices of agricultural commodities and recurring droughts. The total debt waiver granted during amounted to 0.32% of GDP as per revised estimates as opposed to budget estimates of 0.27% of GDP. Total debt waivers are budgeted at 0.2% of GDP during Since the actual waivers granted by states during have been below the announced/budgeted levels, it is likely that the pending debt waiver promises would spill over into coming fiscal years and continue to squeeze fiscal space. The decline in capital outlay growth during in some waiver granting states is a pointer to the likely impact of the waiver on developmental expenditure. Debt waivers can deflect the state from its fiscal consolidation path, coming as they do, on top of UDAY and the implementation of the pay commission recommendations. Farm productivity enhancement through pecuniary incentives like debt waivers is unproven. Hence, higher fiscal deficits in future may 4
5 Better fiscal marksmanship and efficiency of expenditures appear essential in providing robustness to state finances if revenue receipts end up again in shortfall relative to budgeted levels. Borrowings The profile of market borrowings and the associated redemption pressures needs attention. First, the share of the states in the general government deficit has been rising since with important macroeconomic implications the general government sector pre-empted 68% of the available pool of financial resources in the form of gross domestic households financial savings of about 9% of GDP in The consequent crowding out of the private sector has wider ramifications. In particular, external debt sustainability has emerged as a corporate sector risk in view of the recent appreciation of the US dollar and US dollar funding gaps. Second, states borrowing costs have been rising steadily, with their bond issuances attracting premium on the centre s bond yields. This is translating into debt repayment costs occupying a growing proportion of committed expenditure of states. Visible fiscal pressures are emerging for several states on the expenditure side, particularly under the committed heads and other state-specific schemes like agricultural debt waivers. Table 6: Gross and Net Borrowings of State Governments Outstanding Liabilities Outstanding liabilities of states have been growing at double digits, barring in The issuance of UDAY bonds in and , farm loan waivers and the implementation of pay commission awards led to higher debt GDP ratio at 24.0% in (RE) which is expected to rise to 24.3% in (BE). State-wise data reveal that the debt-gsdp ratio increased in for 16 states. Table 7 gives a snippet of the outstanding liabilities of the State Governments. 5
6 Table 7: Outstanding Liabilites of State Governments Looking ahead Fiscal risk may tend to rise for states going for election during the year; this is accompanied by continuing announcements and dispersals of farm loan waivers as well as the implementation of the pay commission in some states. Borrowing Costs are likely to increase with the rise in borrowing requirements for FY 19. Revenue mobilization remains the key towards attaining the budgeted targets, as the states majorly continue to depend on the share from central taxes. As the GST stabilises, it should boost states revenue capacity and support the resumption of fiscal consolidation. The compensation cesses by the Centre for any interim shortfall are of considerable help to the state finances from the revenue front, but this remains a temporary solution. Nevertheless, fiscal prudence and efficiency of expenditures are essential to providing robustness to state finances if revenue receipts end up again in shortfall relative to budgeted levels. Credibility of State Budgets is a growing concern as poor predictive power of estimates vis-à-vis actual outcomes has been a salient feature of state budgets. Assessment of fiscal marksmanship of states, generally at the consolidated states level, exhibits a large systematic component in some of the expenditure items, particularly capital outlays. This is reflective of the necessary adjustments that were made as the states fell short in meeting committed targets. CARE Ratings Limited (Formerly known as Credit Analysis & Research Ltd) Corporate Office: 4th Floor, Godrej Coliseum, Somaiya Hospital Road, Off Eastern Express Highway, Sion (East), Mumbai CIN: L67190MH1993PLC Tel: I Fax: care@careratings.com I Website: Follow us on /company/care Ratings /company/care Ratings 6
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