State Budget Update. Fall 2017 FEB 2018

Transcription

1 State Budget Update Fall 2017 FEB 2018

2 State Budget Update Fall: 2017 The National Conference of State Legislatures is the bipartisan organization dedicated to serving the lawmakers and staffs of the nation s 50 states, its commonwealths and territories. NCSL provides research, technical assistance and opportunities for policymakers to exchange ideas on the most pressing state issues, and is an effective and respected advocate for the interests of the states in the American federal system. Its objectives are: Improve the quality and effectiveness of state legislatures Promote policy innovation and communication among state legislatures Ensure state legislatures a strong, cohesive voice in the federal system The conference operates from offices in Denver, Colorado and Washington, D.C. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 2018

3 Contents Introduction... 1 FY 2018 Revenue... 1 Personal Income Taxes... 1 General Sales Taxes... 2 Corporate Income Taxes... 2 Other Taxes... 3 Summary of the State Fiscal Situation... 3 Appendix... 5 Table 1. Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY Table 2. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Personal Income Tax... 7 Table 3. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: General Sales and Use... 9 Table 4. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Corporate Income...11 Table 5. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Severance...13 Table 6. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Real Estate Transfer...15 Table 7. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Other...17 NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES iii

4 Introduction Midway through fiscal year (FY) 2018, state revenues appear to be relatively strong. This in contrast to last year when many states had to revise their forecasts downward and make due with less revenue than anticipated. Through the fall of last year, 36 states were expected to meet their latest revenue forecasts. Only four states do not anticipate meeting their revenue estimates this fiscal year, and six states believe they will exceed their projections. Personal income tax collections are performing relatively well through the first half of the fiscal year, with 29 states reporting collections are either on target, or exceeding estimates. Twenty-eight states also anticipate corporate income tax collections to be on target or above estimate. Similarly, 27 states report general sales tax revenues are on target or above estimate. At this point last year, sales tax collections were below estimate in over 20 states, compared to 14 states this year. States that rely heavily on severance tax collections are also seeing some positive developments. Ten states expect severance tax revenues to come in as expected, and five anticipate greater than expected revenues. Overall, state budgets appear stable and legislative fiscal officers are cautiously optimistic. This report highlights results from NCSL s most recent survey of legislative fiscal officers about state tax collections and other indicators of state fiscal health. Tennessee and the District of Columbia did not participate in the survey. Detailed tables for each section are contained in the report s appendix. FY 2018 Revenue Revenues are on target in a majority of states. Thirty-six states anticipate meeting their revenue estimates by the end of FY Only four states Arizona, Missouri, Montana and South Dakota do not expect to meet their revenue forecasts. In Missouri, weak growth in FY 2017 put the state behind its growth estimates for FY South Dakota noted that the sluggish agriculture economy and increasing health care costs are contributing factors to its lower-than-anticipated revenues. Six states are optimistic that they will exceed their revenue expectations Florida, Idaho, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah and Virginia. In Florida, activity relating to recovery efforts from Hurricane Irma are increasing state revenues. Figure 1. Revenue Outlook FY Unlikely to meet forecast Expected to meet forecast Likely to exceed forecast Not available 36 Figure 2. Personal Income Tax Collections FY More information on state revenue performance can be found in table 1 of the appendix. Personal Income Taxes Personal income taxes make up the largest share of state tax collections. Nine states do not levy a broad-based personal income tax, though two of these states New Hampshire and Tennessee do tax interest income and dividends. estimate On target estimate Not levied Not available NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 1

5 For FY 2018, personal income tax collections in the states appear relatively strong. Personal income tax collections are on target in 14 states Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Two of those states, Hawaii and Maine, had previously revised projections upward. Another 15 states Arkansas, California, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah, Virginia and West Virginia are experiencing personal income tax collections above their estimates. Ten states Connecticut, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Vermont and Wisconsin are seeing personal income tax collections below their projections. Figure 3. General Sales and Use Tax Collections FY More information on personal income tax collections can be found in table 2 of the appendix. General Sales Taxes The second largest source of total state tax revenues are general sales and use taxes, which account for about 30 percent of state revenues on average. Five states Alaska, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire and Oregon do not levy a state sales tax. Midway through the fiscal year, general sales taxes are performing relatively well for many states. General sales tax collections are on target in 17 states. Of those, Alabama, Nebraska and Rhode Island had revised their forecasts downward. Four states Hawaii, Kansas, Maine and Wyoming had revised their forecasts upward. estimate On target estimate Not levied Not available Figure 4. Corporate Income Tax Collections FY 2018 Ten states California, Idaho, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin report that sales tax revenue collections are exceeding expectations. In Texas, above-estimate sales tax collections are partially attributed to hurricane recovery efforts. General sales tax collections are below estimate in 14 states Arkansas, Connecticut, Florida, Kentucky, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia. More information on general sales and use taxes can be found in table 3 of the appendix. Corporate Income Taxes On average, corporate income tax collections make up about 5 percent of state revenues. Six states Nevada, Ohio, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming do not levy a traditional corporate income tax. Like personal income taxes and sales tax collections, corporate income taxes are on target or performing above estimate for many states. However, corporate income tax estimate On target estimate Not levied Not available NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 2

6 es are notoriously volatile and collections can change significantly before the end of the fiscal year. In 15 states Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Utah corporate income tax collections are on target. Fourteen states California, Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Vermont, Virginia and West Virginia are experiencing corporate income tax collections above projections. There are 11 states Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina and Wisconsin where corporate income taxes are below estimates. More information on corporate income taxes can be found in table 4 of the appendix. Other Taxes In addition to personal income, sales and corporate income taxes, many states also levy additional taxes that can be important elements of overall state revenue. These taxes often include severance taxes, real estate transfer taxes, insurance premium taxes and taxes on gambling. is a look at how some of these other taxes are performing midway through FY Severance tax collections appear to be rebounding in many of the states that levy one. Severance tax collections are on target in 10 states and above estimate in five states. Only four states are reporting collections below estimate. Real estate transfer taxes are on target in nine states and above estimate in seven. Only two states that levy a real estate transfer tax are seeing collections below estimate. The modified business tax in Nevada is on target and commercial activity tax collections in Ohio are performing above estimate. More information on severance taxes can be found in table 5 of the appendix, real estate transfer taxes in table 6, and other taxes are available in table 7 of the appendix. Summary of the State Fiscal Situation As has been the case over the last few years, states are expressing some concerns about growing program spending demands and slow revenue growth, and a few states are concerned about potential budget shortfalls. However, state budgets overall appear to be stable, and many legislative fiscal officers are expressing some cautious optimism. Colorado. The state s economy remains among the nation s strongest. Revenue is expected to continue to grow through the forecast period but at a slower pace than economic growth due to demographic change, among other factors. While SB alleviated some budgetary pressures, constitutional requirements, including the TABOR Amendment and the Gallagher Amendment, continue to constrain revenue and local sources of funding, while Amendment 23 (for education) and caseload growth (more generally) are requiring higher expenditures on education, health care and transportation. Florida. Florida has experienced a disruption in its budget process related to Hurricane Irma directly and Maria indirectly (related to immigration). Significant emergency expenditures were made to respond to these hurricanes and Irma has disrupted revenue collections as referenced above. The budgeting process is expected to return to normal over the next year as revenues stabilize and FEMA reimbursement is returned to the state. Massachusetts. Significant above-benchmark tax revenue through the first half of the fiscal year is a positive sign of fiscal stability for the Commonwealth. However, given weaker than expected tax returns in the second half of past recent fiscal years, we continue to monitor the situation closely, in concert with unavoidable spending obligations, and have thus far maintained our tax revenue benchmark. Minnesota. Minnesota s General Fund budget is in a good fiscal position. Revenue in FY 2017 was almost identical to the forecasted amount. Fiscal year 2017 spending was under forecast and the FY 2017 balance was $265 million more than projected. That balance carries into FY In the first four months of FY 2018, revenue has been $31 million less than the forecasted amount. Minnesota also has $1.9 billion in state reserves that would help to address any potential softening of the overall budget in a future forecast. Nebraska. The general fund balance should remain positive through most of the current fiscal year, despite reduced revenue NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 3

7 forecasts. Year-over-year growth is positive, but weak in comparison to long-run average growth. New Mexico. New Mexico s revenues declined significantly after oil and natural gas prices dropped in 2015, and the state took substantial legislative action to maintain solvency by reducing budgets, sweeping various state funds, and finding other sources of revenue. Now the state s economy and revenues are rebounding, and preliminary reserves for FY 2017 exceeded 8 percent after projections previously fell below zero prior to solvency action. South Carolina. All constitutionally required reserve funds are fully funded. The state is experiencing slowing, but steady economic growth. South Dakota. A sluggish agriculture economy, lost sales tax revenue from online purchases, low inflation, and increased health care costs are affecting sales tax collections in FY Bright points are that housing and construction activity remains steady. More information on state fiscal situations can be found in table 7 of the appendix. Conclusion States appear cautiously optimistic about their fiscal situations midway through the fiscal year. A majority of states expect to meet their revenue estimates before the end of the fiscal year, and individual tax categories appear relatively strong. However, many states are still grappling with slow revenue growth and reference increasing spending demands. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 4

8 Appendix Table 1. Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2017 Jurisdiction Alabama Alaska Unlikely to Meet Forecast Expected to Meet Forecast Likely to Exceed Forecast Comments Arizona Minor shortfall relative to enacted budget forecast. Based on Finance Advisory Committee forecast. Arkansas Current general revenue collections are 2 percent below forecast. California Estimates released on the same day that survey was completed. Colorado Connecticut Dependent upon fourth quarter and final income tax payments. Delaware District of Columbia Florida Due to recovery activity from Hurricane Irma. Georgia Hawaii Idaho We have a 3.8 percent revenue forecast and we are tracking at 4.4 percent. Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Slowly improving economy anticipated and occurring. Maine December 2017 semi-annual revenue forecast revised general fund revenue upward for FY 2018 but downward for FY Maryland Massachusetts Currently the Department of Revenue expects tax revenues to meet benchmark projections. Michigan FY began 1, Because the state uses accrual accounting, FY revenues largely begin with November collections. Minnesota The next general fund forecast will be released Dec.5. Mississippi Year-to-date through October collections are $4.5 million or 0.26 percent above the Sine Die revenue estimate. Missouri Weaker FY 2017 growth put us behind to start FY Montana Personal income tax in FY 2017 was substantially below estimate due to last quarter s actual collections below trend. Uncertain what the last quarter of FY 2018 collections will be like. Nebraska Forecast revised in October. Limited time to evaluate performance. Nevada With only two to three months of actual collections reported, it too early to draw conclusions relative to the current forecast. New Hampshire New Jersey April income tax returns will largely determine final revenue performance compared to targets. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 5

9 Table 1. Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2017 Unlikely to Meet Forecast Expected to Meet Forecast Likely to Exceed Forecast Jurisdiction Comments Revenue tracking indicates general fund revenues are up more than $100 New Mexico million compared with the last forecast, and the forecast will likely be revised up in December. Receipts were revised Nov. 10 using receipts through September (mid-year). New York General fund receipts through October compared to the Enacted budget estimate (April 2017) are $328 million below estimates. However, October receipts are on target with the mid-year estimates. Over 50 percent of the current gap in collections is related to higher than North Carolina expected refunds. Timing of when refunds are processed can result in month-to-month fluctuations in net collections. North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma General revenue funds are $9.9 million above the estimate. Oregon Pennsylvania The forecast was just released on Nov. 6 due to a budget impasse. Rhode Island Forecast was revised November 10 South Carolina The South Carolina Board of Economic Advisors left the FY 2018 revenue estimate unchanged during its November meeting. However, the Board did recognize slower than forecast growth in the first quarter of the fiscal year. At the current growth rate there is potential for a shortfall of $45.7 million for FY The BEA will review the general fund estimate at its February meeting, after the holiday season, to determine if the forecast should be revised. A sluggish ag economy, lost sales tax revenue from online purchases, low South Dakota inflation, and increased health care costs are affecting sales tax collections in FY Tennessee Texas fiscal year 2018 began on Sept.r 1, Through October 2017, Texas overall fiscal year 2018 revenues are on target. Total fiscal year 2017 revenue collections slightly exceeded estimates. Utah The personal income tax performance this month is concerning but it still Vermont feels a bit early to say if missing the mark is likely. A new forecast will be adopted in January, and a small downgrade is possible. Federal tax reform will also impact Virginia Fiscal year 2017 closed with $134.9 in revenues ahead of forecast. Washington The most recent forecast is less than a month old. West Virginia We sit at 99.1 percent of estimate year to date, with stronger collections in last months. Wisconsin Wyoming Since the forecast was recently revised ( 24, 2017), the revenues are in line with overall expectations, recognizing numerous risks to the forecasts remain, or could develop over the balance of the fiscal year. United States Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 6

10 Table 2. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Personal Income Tax Jurisdiction Through No Up Down Estimate On Target Alabama x x Alaska Arizona x x Arkansas x x Estimate Comment California x x LAO estimates of personal income tax revenues are $2.1 billion above June 2017 budget act assumptions for estimates are lower by $149 million. Colorado Sept. x x Federal tax reform could considerably increase revenue. Connecticut x x Updated November consensus estimates. Delaware Sept. x x District of Columbia Florida Georgia x x Any forecast revisions will occur in the Amended budget. Hawaii x x Council on Revenues projects aggregate growth. Increased FY 2018 forecast from 4.0 percent to 4.3 percent in September. Idaho x x Ahead of forecast by $11.9 million. Illinois Sept. x Indiana x x Personal income tax is 0.3 percent below target. Forecast will be revised in December Iowa x x Forecast was revised downward by 1.8 percent by October Revenue Estimating Conference. Kansas x x Kentucky x x Louisiana x x Maine x x Still interpreting the fiscal impact of last session s repeal of the 3 percent surtax that had been approved in a fall 2016 citizen s initiative. Maryland x x Massachusetts Nov. x x $113 million as of November returns. Michigan x x Withholding has been below target. Minnesota x x Income tax collections are below estimate by 0.3 percent ($42 million). Mississippi x x Missouri x x Montana x x Continuing to monitor. Nebraska x x in October. Nevada Sept. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 7

11 Table 2. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Personal Income Tax Jurisdiction Through No Up Down Estimate On Target Estimate Comment New Hampshire New Jersey x x New Mexico Sept. x x Tracking up after taxpayer reporting anomalies were identified and corrected. New York Sept. x Receipts were revised Nov. 10tusing receipts through September (mid-year). General Fund Personal Income Tax receipts compared to the Enacted budget estimate (April 2017) are $562 million below estimates and October receipts are on target with the mid-year revised estimates. North Carolina Sept. x x North Dakota x x Ohio x x Oklahoma x x Oregon Sept. x x FY $36 million above estimate. Pennsylvania x x Due to a budget impasse, which was resolved on 30, official revenue estimates were not issued until Nov. 6. Rhode Island x x Estimates revised on Nov. 10. South Carolina x x South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah x x Vermont Sept. x x The forecast was made in July Virginia x x Washington West Virginia Nov. x x At 102 percent estimate year-to-date. Wisconsin x x Final collections often differ significantly from collections through October. Wyoming Sept. Total Key: N/A = tax not levied. Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 8

12 Table 3. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: General Sales and Use Jurisdiction Through No Up Down Estimate On Target Estimate Comment Alabama x x Alaska Arizona x x Arkansas x x California x x LAO estimates of sales and use tax revenues are $816 million above June 2017 budget act assumptions for estimates are also higher by $375 million. Colorado Sept. x x Connecticut x x Updated November consensus estimates. Delaware Sept. District of Columbia Florida x x Shortfall attributable to the effects of Hurricane Irma, but we anticipate that revenue will be recovered in subsequent months. Georgia x x Any forecast revisions will occur in the Amended budget. Hawaii x x Council on Revenues projects aggregate growth. Increased FY 18 forecast from 4.0 percent to 4.3 percent in September. Idaho x x Ahead of forecast by $15.1 million. Illinois Sept. x Indiana x x Sales tax is 0.2 percent below target. Forecast will be revised in December Iowa x x Forecast was revised downward by 2.1 percent by October Revenue Estimating Conference. Kansas x x Kentucky x x Louisiana x x Maine x x Maryland x x Massachusetts Nov. x x $18 million as of November returns. Michigan x x Sales tax above target, use tax below estimate. Minnesota x x Sales tax collections are below estimate by 0.3 percent ($15 million). Mississippi x x Missouri x x Slightly below estimate. Montana Nebraska x x in October. Nevada Sept. x x Actual collections are $1.1 million or 0.6 percent below forecast through first two months of the fiscal year. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 9

13 Table 3. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: General Sales and Use Jurisdiction Through No Up Down Estimate On Target Estimate Comment New Hampshire New Jersey x x New Mexico Sept. x x Growing faster than income levels. New York Sept. x Receipts were revised Nov. 10 using receipts through September (mid-year). General Fund Sales and Use Taxes compared to the Enacted budget estimate (April 2017) are $52 million below estimates (in addition to general sales this includes cig and alcoholic beverage receipts). North Carolina Sept. x x North Dakota x x Ohio x x Oklahoma x x Oregon Pennsylvania x x Rhode Island x x Estimates revised on Nov. 10. South Carolina x x South Dakota x x The governor released a revenue estimate with his budget proposal on Dec. 5. Tennessee Texas x x Fiscal year 2018 sales tax estimates were revised upwards in October 2017 from estimates in January Fiscal year 2018 sales tax collections are trending above target. Part of the increase results from increased purchasing related to hurricane recovery. Utah x x Vermont Sept. x x The forecast was made in July Virginia x x Washington x November forecast compared to September forecast; no tracking data available since November forecast. West Virginia Nov. x x At 97 percent estimate year to date and over estimate in November. Wisconsin x x Wyoming Sept. x x The forecast for FY 2018 was recently revised upward by 2.2 percent. United States Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 10

14 Table 4. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Corporate Income Jurisdiction Through No Up Down Estimate On Target Estimate Comment Alabama x x Alaska x Arizona x x Arkansas x x California x x LAO estimates of corporate tax revenues are $274 million below June 2017 budget act assumptions for estimates are also lower by $208 million. Colorado Sept. x x Connecticut x x Updated November consensus estimates. Delaware Sept. x x District of Columbia Florida x x Shortfall attributable to filing extension for certain taxpayers affected by Hurricane Irma. Georgia x x Any forecast revisions will occur in the Amended budget. Hawaii x x Council on Revenues projects aggregate growth. Increased FY 2018 forecast from 4.0 percent to 4.3 percent in September. Idaho x x Behind forecast by $6.7 million. Illinois Sept. x Indiana x x Corporate taxes together (corporate income, financial institutions, and utility receipts taxes) are 52.9 percent below target. Most of the deviation is attributable to corporate income tax. Forecast will be revised in December Iowa x x Forecast was revised upward 12.7 percent by October Revenue Estimating Conference. Kansas x x Kentucky x x Louisiana x x Maine x x Maryland x x Massachusetts Nov. x x $52 million as of November returns. Michigan x x Minnesota x x Corporate tax collections are above estimate by 1.6 percent ($20 million). Mississippi x x Missouri x x Montana x x Nebraska x x in October. Nevada New Hampshire x x Through 31, 6.1 million above estimate. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 11

15 Table 4. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Corporate Income Jurisdiction Through No Up Down Estimate On Target Estimate Comment New Jersey x x New Mexico Sept. x x Tracking up, it s but very volatile revenue source. New York Sept. x Receipts were revised November 10th using receipts through September (mid-year). General Fund Corporate Tax receipts compared to the Enacted budget estimate (April 2017) are $120 million below estimates. North Carolina Sept. x x North Dakota x x Ohio Oklahoma x x Oregon Sept. x x FY $3 million below estimate. Pennsylvania x x Rhode Island x x Estimates revised on Nov 10. South Carolina x x South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah x x Vermont Sept. x x May not be good news. Likely delayed refund. Virginia x x Washington West Virginia Nov. x x At 137 percent estimate year-to-date. Wisconsin x x Final collections often differ significantly from collections through October. Wyoming Sept. United States Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 12

16 Table 5. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Severance Jurisdiction Through No Up Down Estimate On Target Alabama x x Estimate Comment Alaska A severance (or production) tax is included with royalties under Other/Petroleum Tax. Arizona Arkansas x x California N/A Colorado Sept. x x Connecticut Delaware Sept. x District of Columbia Florida x x Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Sept. Indiana Small revenue source and not a general fund revenue source. Iowa Kansas x x Kentucky x x Louisiana x x Maine Maryland Massachusetts Nov. x N/A Michigan x x Minnesota Mississippi x x Missouri Montana x x Nebraska Nevada Sept. New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico Sept. x x Tracking up with higher oil prices and production and strong land lease sales. New York Sept. North Carolina Sept. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 13

17 Table 5. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Severance Jurisdiction Through No Up Down Estimate On Target North Dakota x x Estimate Comment Ohio Not a source of general revenue, so no forecast. Revenue has been growing strongly due to shale oil drilling. Oklahoma x x Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota x x Tennessee Texas x x Fiscal year 2018 severance tax estimates were revised upwards in October 2017 from estimates in January Fiscal year 2018 severance tax collections are on target. Utah x x Vermont Sept. Virginia Washington Insignificant amount to general fund. West Virginia Nov. x x At 87 percent estimate YTD but up 51 percent versus last year. Wisconsin Wyoming Sept. x x The forecast for FY 2018 was recently revised upward by 1.7 percent. United States Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 14

18 Table 6. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Real Estate Transfer Jurisdiction Through No Up Down Estimate On Target Estimate Comment Alabama x x Alaska Arizona Arkansas x x California N/A Colorado Sept. Connecticut x x Updated November consensus estimates. Delaware Sept. x x District of Columbia Florida x x Shortfall attributable to the effects of Hurricane Irma, but we anticipate that revenue will be recovered in subsequent months. Georgia Hawaii x x Council on Revenues projects aggregate growth. Increased FY 2018 forecast from 4.0 percent to 4.3 percent in September. Idaho Illinois Sept. Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine x Maryland x x Massachusetts Nov. x N/A Michigan x x Minnesota x x Real estate taxes are above estimate by 3.1 percent ($4 million). This is a September number. Mississippi N/A Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada Sept. x x New Hampshire x x Through 31, $3.4 million below estimate. New Jersey x x New Mexico Sept. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 15

19 Table 6. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2018: Real Estate Transfer Jurisdiction Through No Up Down Estimate On Target Estimate Comment New York Sept. x Receipts were revised on Nov. 10 using receipts through September (mid-year). Real Estate Transfer Tax receipts compared to the Enacted budget estimate (April 2017) are $8 million below estimates. North Carolina Sept. x x North Dakota Ohio Not a source of state revenue; no forecast. Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania x x Rhode Island x x Estimates revised on Nov 10. South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Sept. x x This is to forecast made in July Virginia x Washington x November forecast compared to September forecast; no tracking data available since November forecast. West Virginia Nov. x x At 124 percent estimate year-to-date. Negligible contributor. Wisconsin x x Wyoming Sept. Total Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 16

20 Table 7. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Other Jurisdiction Tax Through Alabama No Up Down Estimate On Target Estimate Comment Alaska Petroleum Taxes x Revenue forecast will be updated and released in December. Arizona Insurance x Premium Tax Arkansas California Colorado Sept. Connecticut Delaware Sept. District of Columbia Florida Insurance x x Premium Tax Georgia Hawaii x x Council on Revenues projects aggregate growth. Increased FY 2018 forecast from 4.0 percent to 4.3 percent in September. Idaho Illinois Product taxes and Misc. Revenue taxes x x Product taxes are ahead by $0.1 million and misc. revenue taxes are ahead by $1.1 million. Sept. Indiana Gaming Taxes x x Gaming taxes are percent below target. Forecast will be revised in December Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Misc. (Insurance, Beer, and Franchise x x Forecast was revised downward October Revenue Estimating Conference. Massachusetts Nov. x x $20 million as of November returns. Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Use x x Missouri Montana Nebraska Miscellaneous x x in October. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 17

21 Table 7. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Other Jurisdiction Tax Through Nevada Modified Business Tax New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico Sept. x New York Sept. North Carolina Sept. North Dakota Ohio Commercial Activity Tax No Up Down Estimate On Target Estimate Comment Sept. x x No fiscal year actual collections reported yet due to quarterly reporting of the tax. x x This is a gross receipts tax on general businesses. Receipts were $21.5 million (5.4 percent) above estimate through October. Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania x x Rhode Island South Carolina All Other x x (Admissions, Alcohol, Bank, Beer/Wine, Corporate License, Documentary, Earnings on Investment, Insurance, Tobacco) South Dakota Tennessee Texas Texas fiscal year 2018 began on Sept. 1, All revenue forecasts were revised in October Through October 2017, fiscal year 2018 sales tax collections are trending above target. Remaining fiscal year 2018 collections are on target. Fiscal year 2017 revenue collections of the sales tax, oil production tax, and natural gas tax exceeded fiscal year 2017 estimates. Franchise business tax and motor vehicle sales tax collections came in below estimate during fiscal year Overall fiscal year 2017 revenue collections exceeded estimates. NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 18

22 Table 7. of Major Tax Categories in FY 2017: Other Jurisdiction Tax Through Utah Vermont Sept. Virginia Washington B&O and State Property No Up Down Estimate On Target Estimate Comment x November forecast compared to September Forecast; no tracking data available since November Forecast. West Virginia Tobacco Tax Nov. x x At 97 percent estimate year-todate. Wisconsin Wyoming Sept. United States Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal offices, fall NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES 19

23 NCSL Contacts: Erica MacKellar Senior Policy Specialist William T. Pound, Executive Director 7700 East First Place, Denver, Colorado 80230, North Capitol Street, N.W., Suite 515, Washington, D.C , by the National Conference of State Legislatures. All rights reserved. ISBN