National Government Spending, Revenues, and Resulting Surpluses or Deficits , in Billions of Constant (2002) Dollars

Transcription

1 Summary of National Government Budget Data 15 National Government Spending, Revenues, and Resulting Surpluses or Deficits , in Billions of Constant (22) Dollars Surplus or deficit (billions 22 dollars) Expenditures (billions 22 dollars) Revenues (billions 22 dollars) Source of current-dollar budget data: Historical Statistics of the United States (1975), series Y (yearly data not available for ), and Budget 24 Historical Tables, Table 1.1 sumbudg.pdf 23 Robert C. Sahr, Political Science Department, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR /13/3 Robert.Sahr@orst.edu; WWW:

2 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 2 2,5 National Government Spending, Revenues, and Resulting Surpluses or Deficits , in Billions of Constant (22) Dollars 2, 1,5 1, , Surplus or deficit (billions 22 dollars) Expenditures (billions 22 dollars) Revenues (billions 22 dollars) Source of current-dollar budget data: Budget 24 Historical Tables, Table 1.1

3 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 3 National Government Spending in Billions of 22 Dollars and as Percent of GDP, 1792 to 22 5 $2, 4 $1,6 Percent of GDP 3 2 Civil War ( ) World War I ( ) World War II ( ) Right Scale $1,2 $8 Billions of 22 dollars 1 $4 War of 1812 ( ) Left Scale $- Expenditures (% GDP) Expenditures (billions 22 dollars) Source of current-dollar budget data: Historical Statistics of the United States (1975), series Y (yearly data not available for ), and Budget 24 Historical Tables, Table 1.1; GDP data prior to 193 is estimated, from Economic History net,

4 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 4 $25, US National Government Expenditures and National Debt per Person 1792 to 22, in Inflation-adjusted (22) Dollars $2, $15, $1, $5, $ Expenditures (22 dollars/person) Total public debt (22 dollars/person) Source of current-dollar data: Historical Statistics of the United States (1975) and Budget 24 Historical Tables

5 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 5 4 Inflation-adjusted Change in National Government Budget Outlays by Presidential Term 1952 to estimated 24, in Percent Note: The early-23 estimate for President George W. Bush probably is too low Ike I Ike II JFK-LBJ LBJ Nixon Nixon-Ford Carter Reagan I Reagan II GHW Bush Clinton I Clinton II GW Bush Source of current-dollar data: Budget of the United States 24 Historical Tables, Table 1.1; Inflation-adjustment with CPI-U-X1, which applies the post-1982 CPI to the entire period

6 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 6 National Debt in Billions of Current and Constant (22) Dollars and as Percent of GDP, 1792 to $7,5 Left Scale 1 $6, Percent of GDP 75 5 $4,5 $3, Billions of dollars Civil War ( ) World War I ( ) 25 War of 1812 ( ) World War II ( ) $1,5 $ Total public debt (% GDP) Total public debt (billions 22 dollars) Total public debt (billions of dollars)

7 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 7 6 Change in US National Debt by Presidential Term, 1945 to estimated 24, Presidents Truman to George W. Bush, in Percent 5 4 "Gross debt" includes debt held by the public and also by such government units as Social Security trust funds; "debt held by the public" excludes debt held by those government units; economists generally argue the latter is the more important measure Note: The early-23 estimates for 23 and 24 appear overly optimistic, so larger increases in the national debt may occur than indicated. -3 FDR-HT Truman Ike I Ike II JFK-LBJ Johnson Nixon I Nixon- Ford Carter Reagan I Reagan II GHW Bush Clinton I Clinton II GW Bush Four-year Real Change in Gross Debt (Percent) Four-year Real Change in Debt Held by the Public (Percent) Source of current-dollar data: Budget of the United States 24 Historical Tables, Table 7.1; inflation adjustment with CPI-U-X1, which applies the post-1982 CPI to the entire period

8 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 8 5 National Government Outlays, Receipts, and Resulting Surpluses or Deficits as Percent of Economy, 193 to Read this as follows: In budget year 2, outlays were 2.8 percent of the economy, receipts were 18.4 percent, and the resulting surplus was 2.4 percent of the economy (this precision will not be evident from the chart with the scale used) Surplus or Deficit % GDP Receipts % GDP Outlays % GDP Source of data: Budget of the United States 24 Historical Tables, Table 1.1

9 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 9 1% Mandatory, Net Interest, and Discretionary Components of National Government Budget, 1962 to estimated 28, in Percent 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % est. Discretionary Net Interest Mandatory Source of data: Budget 24 Historical Tables, Table 8.3. The mandatory-discretionary budget classification was introduced beginning with the 1962 budget year. Discretionary spending is controlled through the appropriations process by Congress and presidents. Net interest is a category of mandatory spending but is shown separately here.

10 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 1 15 Yearly Inflation-adjusted Change in Discretionary Outlays, 1962 to estimated 24, in Percent Inflation-adjusted Change, in Percent The constant-dollar data used here are from Budget 24 Historical Tables, Table 8.2. The discretionary-mandatory classification was introduced in 1962, so the first year for which change can be shown is the 1963 fiscal year, change from Discretionary outlays are those controlled through the appropriations process.

11 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 11 3 Yearly Inflation-adjusted Change in Mandatory and Net Interest Outlays, 1962 to estimated 24, in Percent 25 2 Inflation-adjusted Change, in Percent Mandatory (excluding interest) Net Interest The constant-dollar data used here are from Budget 24 Historical Tables, Table 8.2. Interest officially is part of mandatory spending but is broken out separately here.

12 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 12 8 Inflation-adjusted change in Mandatory, Discretionary, and Interest Outlays by Presidential Term, 1964 to estimated 24, in Percent Because of defense changes since early 23, estimates for discretionary outlays 23 and later years will be higher than then estimated (defense is the largest discretionary component); net interest outlays also will be higher Johnson Nixon Nixon-Ford Carter Reagan I Reagan II GHW Bush Clinton I Clinton II GW Bush -26 Discretionary Outlays Mandatory Outlays Interest Outlays The constant-dollar data used here are from Budget 24 Historical Tables, Table 8.2. The discretionary-mandatory classification was introduced in 1962, so the first complete presidential term to which it applies is that of Lyndon Johnson. Interest officially is part of mandatory spending but is broken out separately here.

13 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 13 Composition of National Government Discretionary Spending Largest Categories 1962 to est. 28, in Percent of Total Discretionary Outlays 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Numbers in parentheses in legend show rank among discretionary spending items as of 22 budget year. Items are arranged in descending order, so the second largest item, education, is next to defense. % est. National defense (1) Education (2) Health (3) Ground transportation (4) Administration of justice (5) Other discretionary (not in top 5) Source of data: Budget 24 Historical Tables, Table 8.7

14 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 14 Composition of National Government Mandatory Spending 1962 to estimated 28, as Percent of Mandatory Spending 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Numbers in parentheses in legend show rank among mandatory spending items as of 22 budget year. Items are arranged in descending order, so the second largest item, Medicare, is next to Social Security. % est. Social Security (1) Medicare (2) Net interest (3) Medicaid (4) Federal employee retirement and disability (5) Other mandatory (not in top 5)

15 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 15 Composition of National Government Budget Outlays for "Big Five" (Defense, Medicaid, Interest on Debt, Social Security, and Medicare) and for Everything Else, 1962 to estimated 28 1% 9% 8% "Everything Else" (excluding "Big 5") Defense, Medicaid, and interest are federal fund spending; Social Security and Medicare are trust fund spending 7% 6% 5% Medicare Social Security 4% 3% 2% Net Interest Medicaid National Defense 1% % Because of changes after the budget was proposed in January 23, defense and interest outlays will be larger than shown for 23 and later budget years est. National defense Medicaid Net interest Social security Medicare "Everything Else" (excluding "Big 5") Source of data: Budget 24 Historical Tables, Table 3.2

16 Summary of National Government Budget Data, page 16 Inflation-adjusted Change in National Government Outlays Per Person for Selected Categories, by Presidential Term, Johnson to George W. Bush, in Percent (Spending divided by total US population, not spending per recipient) The largest non-means-tested social categories are Social Security and Medicare; the largest means-tested category is Medicaid Johnson Nixon Nixon-Ford Carter Reagan I Reagan II GHW Bush Clinton I Clinton II GW Bush Total outlays Defense Net interest Means-tested social Non-means-tested social Other Inflation adjustment with CPI-U-X, which applies the post-1982 CPI to the entire period