MAMS: Core CGE and MDG Modules

Transcription

1 MAMS: Core CGE and MDG Modules Hans Lofgren World Bank Presentation for the Workshop of the UNDP UNDESA World Bank LAS Project Assessing Development Strategies to Achieve the MDGs in the Arab Region, Cairo, April 2-5, 2007

2 1. Introduction Starting point for MAMS: IFPRI static standard model MAMS extends this model in two respects: (recursive) dynamics endogenous MDG and education outcomes

3 1. Introduction Characteristics of standard models: Separation between model code and database (facilitates application to new databases) Flexible (dis)aggregation Pre-programmed alternative treatments of closures and other features.

4 1. Introduction Presentation outline: 2. IFPRI static standard model: a. Data b. Structure 3. MAMS a. Core CGE component b. MDGs and Education The within-period part of 3a is very similar to the IFPRI standard model.

5 2a. Database of Static Model The database consists of Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) available for a large number of developing countries Elasticities Optional factor quantity data A SAM is A comprehensive, economywide data framework A square matrix in which each account is represented by a row and a column each cell shows the payment from its column account to its row account

6 Figure. SAM Structure Receipts Activities Expenditures Activities Commodities Factors Market sales Domestic Institutions Home consumption Rest of World Totals Activity income Commodities Intermediate inputs Transactions costs Final market demands Exports Commodity demand Factors Domestic Institutions Rest of World Totals Value added Taxes Activity spending Tariffs, Taxes Imports Commodity supply Income, Taxes Factor spending Transfers, Taxes, Savings Institution spending Transfers Transfers, Savings Foreign exchange inflow Factor income Institution income Foreign exchange outflow

7 2a. Database of Static Model The program checks that the SAM is properly structured balanced (activating a balancing program if needed) The standard model works with a wide variety of SAM structures

8 2b. Structure of Static Model Computable solvable numerically General economy-wide (like the SAM) Equilibrium optimizing agents have found their best solutions subject to their budget constraints quantities demanded = quantities supplied in factor and commodity markets macroeconomic balance Model written as a set of simultaneous equations; no objective function.

9 2b. Structure of Static Model Distinguishing model characteristics: transactions costs in domestic and foreign trade household home consumption How is the model related to the SAM? The model explains all the payments and quantity flows in the SAM. The model follows the SAM disaggregation. The model is calibrated to the SAM.

10 Stylized Model Structure Factor costs Activities Intermediate input cost Factor Markets Wages & rents Households Domestic private savings Taxes Government Gov t Savings Sav./Inv. Sales Commodity markets Exports Imports Private consumption Transfers Gov t Consumption Foreign Transfers Investment Demand Rest of the World Foreign Savings

11 Figure. Production technology Commodity outputs Activity level (CES/Leontief) Value added Intermediate (Leontief) Primary Factors Composite commodities Imported Domestic

12 Figure. Commodity flows Commodity output from activity 1 (QXAC PXAC)... Commodity output from activity n (QXAC PX AC) CES Aggregate output (QX PX) CET CES = constant elasticity of substitution CET = constant elasticity of transformation Aggregate exports (QE PE ) Domestic sales (QD PDS -PDD) Aggregate imports ( QM PM ) CES Composite commodity (QQ PQ) Household consumption ( QH PQ ) + Government consumption ( QG PQ ) + Investment ( QINV + qdst PQ ) + Intermediate use (QINT PQ)

13 2b. Structure of Static Model Alternative closures for factor markets: Market clearing by wage or (un)employment? Integrated or segmented markets? Alternative closures for macro balances: Government: direct taxes or savings Rest-of world: exchange rate or savings Savings-investment: MPS or investment demand

14 3. MAMS MAMS is dynamic-recursive, i.e. the solution in any time period depend on current and past periods, not the future. MAMS can be solved in two alternative modes: Single-pass (all periods at the same time) Multi-pass (period by period) For any simulation, you can solve in either (or both) modes.

15 3. MAMS Pros of solving in single-pass mode: Faster Potentially, decisions may depend on correct insights about future outcomes. Cons of solving in single-pass mode: Less robust More difficult to debug Suggestion: start in multi-pass; switch to singlepass for simulations for which this works.

16 3. MAMS The rest of this section covers selected relastionships in MAMS: a. Core CGE model b. MDGs and education Simplified to focus on main points. In the equations: parameters have Greek or lower-case Latin letters; variables have upper-case Latin letters; variables with a bar on top are fixed in the current example but may be flexible under different assumption. variables for period t-1 are fixed.

17 3a. Government Consumption QG = QG ct, ct, 1 ( 1+ RQGCT ) ct, real government real government growth consumption = consumption 1 + rate of c in t of c in t 1

18 3a. Government investment QA DKGOV ifa QA QFACINS depr at,,, (1 ) f t fa a, t gov, f, t f a A QA at, 1, MFA ( fa) gross government investment demand for capital anticipated demand for capital remaining capital stock = next year (based on current (after depreciation) next production and its growth) year if no investment

19 3a. Government investment financing INVVAL = GSAV PQ qdst + DGBONDTOT gov, t t c, t c, gov, t t c C government fixed government spending on total change in holdings = + investment value savings stock changes of government bonds + t + CBBORTOT ( FBOR ), + FGRANT, EXR gov t gov t t Government Central Bank foreign borrowing and borrowing (deficit monetization) foreign grants (in LCU) + +

20 3a. Private investment financing INVVAL = INSSAV PQ qdst DGBOND it, it, ct, cit,, it, c C non-government fixed stock change in holdings of = [ savings] investment value changes government bonds ( ) it, it, CBBOR + FBOR + FGRANT + fdi EXR it, it, t Government Central foreign borrowing, grants, + Bank borrowing and direct investment (in LCU)

21 3a. Private investment PK DKINS = gfcfshr INVVAL f, t ift,, fit,, it, non-government spending = total fixed investment value on capital stock f times share for capital stock f

22 3a. BoP uses of foreign exchange YIF TRII row, f, t row, i, t f F i INSDNG pwmct, QM ct, + + c CM EXR t EXR t import factor income transfers from domestic + + spending to Rest of World non-gov institutions to RoW + trnsfr + fintrat FDEBT row, gov, t i, t i INSD it, = transfers from interest payment government to RoW on foreign debt = + +

23 3a. BoP sources of foreign exchange = pwe QE + trnsfr + trnsfrpc POP ct, ct, irowt,, hrowt,, ht, c CE i INSDNH h H export transfers from RoW to domestic transfers from RoW to = + + revenue non-household institutions domestic households ( ) it, it, + trnsfr + FBOR + FGRANT + fdi f, row, t row, t f F i INSD factor income borrowing grants foreign direct from RoW from RoW from RoW investment

24 3a. Labor market Labor segmented by education; educational system defines maximum disaggregation In each segment, minimum un-/underemployment rate is imposed (5%?); base-year replicates observed rates. Two labor-market regimes are possible: unemployment rate > minimum minimum wage unemployment rate = minimum wage flexible Endogenous minimum wage (determined by by unemployment rate and other variables)

25 3a. Employment ( 1 ) QFS = UERAT QFACINS f, t f, t i, f, t i INS total quantity employed 1 - unemployment rate sum of all = of factor f (i.e., employment rate) institutional endowments

26 3a. Minimum (reservation) wage WFMIN ( 1 UERAT ) f, t = WF ( 1 UERAT ) f 00 f, t f 00 ϕwferat minimum wage for factor f in year t economy-wide wage = (if factor f has endogenous unemployment) for factor f in the base year [ ] influence of : employment rate (relative to its base year value) f

27 3a. Labor market mixedcomplementarity conditions WF ft WFMIN ft UERAT ft ueratmin ft (WF ft -WFMIN ft )(UERAT ft ueratmin ft ) = 0 Implications of the last relationship: 1. unemployment rate > minimum rate wage = minimum wage 2. wage > minimum wage unemployment rate > minimum rate

28 3a. Stock updating Updating equations for Stocks (population, factor endowments, foreign debt, government bonds) Total factor productivity (efficiency) by activity.

29 3a. Households (Potential) multiple-household structure complicates stock-updating. Why multiple representative households (RHs)? More accurate simulation results (prices, wages, production). Poverty and distributional analysis based on representative households is facilitated.

30 3a. Households Each RH has various characteristics (consumption and savings pattern, factor endowments, other assets and liabilities) For each RH, population growth is more (less) rapid than overall rate if the labor types with which the RH is highly endowed grow more rapidly than the labor force as a whole.

31 3a. Households This does not reflect higher natural population growth for the population of any RH; it reflects migration from one RH to another as a larger or smaller share of the population take on various characteristics.

32 3a. Household population Defining RH population in t: POP = POPSCAL POP ht, t ht, 1 f f FLAB FLAB QFACINS QFACINS h, f, t h, f, t 1 population of population population of factor for labor household h = scaling household h force growth in year t factor for t in year t-1 for household h

33 3a. Household assets The population growth of any RH relative to the average influences the distribution of factors and other assets or liabilities. For factors with exogenous total stocks (similar treatment for capital)

34 3a. Households and exogenous factors QFACINS = QFSCAL POP qfpc h, f, t f, t h, t h, f, t stock of non-labor scaling population for per-capita stock = factor f by household factor household h for household h qfachhtot = QFACINS f, t h, f, t h H total household stock of sum of disaggregated = exogenous, non-labor factors household stocks

35 3a. TFP TFP by activity is updated on the basis of: changes in public infrastructure capital stocks changes in openness (trade share in GDP) trend term (exogenous except for calibration simulations where GDP growth is imposed)

36 3a. TFP efficiency term for activity a ift,, i INS va at, = va2 at, 0 f FCAP QFACINS if, i INS α α = t' T tfptrdwt tt,' TRDGDP QFACINS TRDGDP o t' product of : ratio of all current real capital endowment f to inital value, raised to the relevant elasticity tfpelastrd tfpelasqg a a, f, t endogenous trend term for aised activity a weighted avg. ( over time ) of ratios of openness to initial value, r to the relevant elasticity

37 3a. Macro closure rules Table 5. Alternative closure rules for macro balances Government GOV-1 GOV-2 GOV-3 GOV-4 GOV-5 Direct tax rates fixed flexible* fixed flexible* fixed Government savings flexible flexible flexible fixed flexible Government bond borrowing flexible fixed fixed fixed fixed Foreign borrowing fixed fixed fixed fixed flexible Foreign grants fixed fixed flexible flexible fixed Rest of World ROW-1 ROW-2 ROW-3 Exchange rate flexible flexible flexible Foreign grants fixed flexible fixed Foreign borrowing fixed fixed flexible Savings-investment SI-1 SI-2 Private investment absorption share fixed flexible Private savings rate flexible fixed** Notes: * uniform point change for selected domestic non-government institutions; **The private savings rate is not fixed but determined endogenously according to Equation 37 (with fixed levels for DMPS and MPSADJ); it is not free to vary to finance an investment value that is exogenous or determined through some other mechanism.

38 3b. MDG and education module Indicators for MDGs and educational outcomes are defined by a nested structure with a logistic function at the top and a constant-elasticity (CE) function at the bottom. The equations for the MDGs will be shown.

39 3b. MDG and education module Logistic function for MDGs 4, 5, 7a, 7b: MDGVAL mdg, t = ext mdg mdg EXP γ α + mdg mdg ( mdg βmdg ZMDG ) mdg mdg mdg, t MDG logistic function of intermediate = value MDG value ( ZMDG ) mdg, t

40 3b. MDG Intermediate variable ZMDG mdg, t = αmce i INS mdg mdg ' MDGSTD cmdg CMDG QFACINS MDGVAL intermediate variable exogenous = for MDGs 4 and 5 parameter i,"fcapgovinf", t ϕ m mdg ', t c C ( cmdg, c) MCM mdg, mdg ' ϕ QQ mmdg,"fcapgovinf" QHPC t m ct, poptot ϕ t ϕ m mdg," hhdconspc" mdg, cmdg influence of : real value for services per capita; level of infrastructure; water and sanitation MDGs; household consumption per capita

41 3b. Parameters of MDG functions A simultaneous equation model solves for parameter values. For the MDG case: As ZMDG +inf, 2nd term 0 and MDGVAL ext αmdg is defined so that, when ZMDG is at base value, MDGVAL is also at base value (if slope > 0, αmdg and 2nd term are negative). βmdg is defined so that, for a pre-specified scenario, MDGVAL hits its 2015 target. The φm s (elasticities of the CE function) are defined so that baseyear elasticities of MDGVAL w.r.t. the arguments of the CE function are replicated. γmdg determines whether base-year point is above/below/at the inflection point, where decreasing MR sets in. (MR are decreasing if βmdg ZMDG - γmdg > 0).

42 3b. Full elasticity of MDG indicators ( ) ( ) φ α β α φ β γ β γ β γ Z Z Z bottom top full e ext Z e e M Z dz dm e e e = = = 1 1 2

43 References Lofgren, Hans, Rebecca Lee Harris, and Sherman Robinson, with assistance from Moataz El-Said and Marcelle Thomas A Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMS. Microcomputers in Policy Research, Vol. 5. Washington, D.C.: IFPRI (www. ifpri.org/pubs/microcom/micro5.htm) Lofgren, Hans and Carolina Diaz-Bonilla MAMS: An Economywide Model for Analysis of MDG Country Strategies. Mimeo. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

44 References Lofgren, Hans, Sherman Robinson and Moataz El-Said Poverty and Inequality Analysis in a General Equilibrium Framework: The Representative Household Approach, pp in eds. François Bourguignon and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva. The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution: Evaluation Techniques and Tools. World Bank and Oxford University Press, Washington, D.C. and New York. Robinson, Sherman and Hans Lofgren Macro Models and Poverty Analysis: Theoretical Tensions and Empirical Practice. Development Policy Review, Vol. 23, No. 3 (May), pp Robinson, Sherman, Andrea Cattaneo, and Moataz El-Said Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods. Economic Systems Research, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp