REPUBLIC OF KENYA MINISTRY OF FINANCE MONTHLY DEBT BULLETIN

Transcription

1 REPUBLIC OF KENYA MINISTRY OF FINANCE MONTHLY DEBT BULLETIN JANUARY 2012

2 1.0 PUBLIC DEBT 1.1 Inroducion As a nd January 2012, public and publicly guarand db sood a Kshs 1, billion or 45.4 prcn of GDP (s Tabl 1). Th incras of 0.3 prcn ovr h nd Dcmbr 2011 posiion is aribud o incrasd upak of domsic db. Th oal xrnal db ros o Kshs billion in January 2012 from Kshs billion in Dcmbr (S Tabl 1). Tabl 1: Siz of public db, in billion Db Cagory Kshs USD Domsic Db Exrnal Db Toal 1, Th srucur of public and publicly guarand db shows ha 54.1 prcn of h oal db is domsic db whil 45.9 prcn is xrnal db as shown in Char 1. Char 1: Composiion of public db Exrnal Db 45.9% Domsic Db 54.1% 1.2 Cos/Risk Characrisics of Public Db Rflcing Govrnmn xrnal db sragy of conracing or guaraning xrnal loans wih highly concssional rms o minimis inrs ra cos, h avrag inrs ra and grac priod on h xrnal db porfolio was 1.0 prcn and 7.6 yars, rspcivly. In addiion, h avrag mauriy priod for xrnal loans was 24 yars whil h avrag gran lmn was 66.4 prcn. As an indicaion of h succss in lnghning h mauriy srucur of domsic db o minimis rfinancing risk in lin wih h Mdium Trm Db Sragy, h avrag mauriy profil of ousanding Govrnmn domsic db sood a 5 yars 10 monhs a nd January Pag 1 of 12

3 1.3 Movmn in Exchang Ras Tabl 2 shows mark indicaiv nd-monh forign xchang ras for h priod Novmbr 2011 o January Th Knya shilling dprciad agains all h major currncis xcp agains h US Dollar. Th Knya shilling dprciad agains h Srling Pound, Euro and Japanss Yn by 1.6 prcn, 1.4 prcn and 1.4 prcn rspcivly, agains h US Dollar i apprciad by 0.6 prcn. Movmns in h xchang ra hav implicaions on boh h siz of h xrnal db and h cos of db srvic. A dprciaing Knya shilling incrass h xrnal db sock and also lads o incrasd coss of xrnal db srvic. Tabl 2: Movmn in xchang ras Currncy Novmbr 2011 Dcmbr 2011 January 2012 US Dollar STG Pound Euro JPY(100) Char 2 shows h rnds in daily xchang ras bwn Knya Shilling and h four major forign currncis from Spmbr 2011 o January Char 2: Knya Shilling Exchang Ra E x c h a n g R a s GBP EURO JPY USD Das Pag 2 of 12

4 2.0 EXTERNAL DEBT 2.1 Siz of Public and Publicly Guarand Exrnal Db Ovrall, public and publicly guarand xrnal db incrasd by Kshs 1.11 billion o Kshs billion in January 2012 from Kshs billion in Dcmbr 2011 as shown in Tabl 3. Tabl 3: Exrnal db sock, in billions D cmbr 2011 January 2012 C rdior Cagory Kshs USD Kshs USD Bilaral M ulila ral G uarand O hrs Toal S our c: M inisr y of Fina nc Th major dcras was obsrvd in bilaral xrnal db which incrasd by Kshs 3.61 billion on accoun of dprciaion of h Knya shilling agains h Srling Pound, h Euro and h Yn. Th high proporion of db from official xrnal sourcs dmonsras a conscious ffor o conrac loans on concssional rms. Char 3 blow illusras ha 35.1 prcn of Knya s xrnal db is dnominad in h Euro whil abou 5 prcn is in Chins Yuan. Char 3. Currncy Composiion Y u a n 5 % O h r s 7 % E u r o 3 5 % U. S. d o l l a r 2 7 % P o u n d s r l i n g 5 % J a p a n s y n 2 1 % 2.2 Srucur of Exrnal Db by Crdior Official crdiors accoun for 96.8 prcn of h oal public and publicly guarand xrnal db, ou of which dbs owd o mulilaral crdiors (Kshs billion including Kshs 3.81 billion guarand db owd o IDA) domina h porfolio (61.7 prcn of h oal). Bilaral db sands a Kshs billion (35.1 prcn of h oal), which includs Kshs billion guarand db, as shown in Char 4 and Annx 1. In h mulilaral cagory, IDA, ADB/ADF, IMF and EEC/EIB accoun for h largs proporion of xrnal crdi, whil Japan, Franc,China and Grmany ar h lading crdiors in h bilaral cagory. Supplir crdi db rmains rlaivly unchangd as hs dbs ar no bing srvicd du o h currn dispus wih h crdiors (s Annx 1). Pag 3 of 12

5 Char 4: Exrnal Db by Crdior E x r n a l d b s o c k % 61.9% 62.2% 61.7% 35.1% 35.0% 34.9% 34.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% Oc-11 Nov-11 Dc-11 Jan-12 Bilaral Mulilaral Ohrs 2.3 Projcd Cumulaiv Exrnal Db Srvic Projcd cumulaiv xrnal db srvic for h priod o nd January 2012 sood a Kshs billion. Principal and inrs projcions for h monh of January wr Kshs 2.22 billion and Kshs 0.61 billion, rspcivly. Mulilaral and bilaral crdiors consiu 52.1 prcn and 47.9 prcn, of h cummulaiv projcd db srvic, rspcivly during h priod undr rviw as shown in Tabl 4. Tabl 4: Cumulaiv Db Srvic Projcions as a nd Janaury 2012, in Kshs million Crdior cagory Principal Inrs Toal Bilaral 7, , , Mulilaral 7, , , Commrcial Toal 15, , , Pag 4 of 12

6 2.4 Acual Cumulaiv Exrnal Db Srvic Acual cumulaiv db srvic as a nd January 2012 was Kshs billion as rflcd in Tabl 5. Acual principal and inrs paymns for h monh of January 2012 was Kshs 3.82 billion and Kshs 1.24 billion rspcivly. Tabl 5: Acual cumulaiv xrnal db srvic as a nd of January 2012, in Kshs million Crdi cagory Principal Inrs Toal Bilaral 7, , , Mulilarals 7, , , Commrcials Toals 15, , , Budg Dviaion Th acual cummulaiv db srvic for January 2012 was abov h projcd db srvic by Kshs 0.59 billion. 2.6 Guarand Exrnal Db Undr h Naional Govrnmn Loans Guaran Ac, 2011, h govrnmn may issu guarans so long as i dos no xcd h ciling which currnly sands a Kshs 200 billion. In January 2012 h amoun of public guarand xrnal db incrasd by Kshs million o Kshs billion. Th incras is du o h dprciaion of h Knya shilling agains h major world currncis. 90 prcn of h guarand db is owd o Japan. Tabl 6 shows h disbursd ousanding guarand db sock by crdior. Tabl 6: Guarand ousanding db by crdior, in Kshs million Crdior Novmbr 2011 Dcmbr 2011 January 2012 Japan 42, , , Canada U.S.A IDA (KR Concssionair) 4, , , Toals 47, , , Pag 5 of 12

7 3.0 DOMESTIC DEBT 3.1 Cnral Govrnmn Domsic Db As indicad in Tabl 7, Govrnmn n domsic db incrasd by Kshs 3.65 billion o Kshs billion. Tabl 7: Govrnmn domsic db, in Kshs billion Novmbr 11 Dcmbr 11 January 12 Gross domsic db lss Gov. dposis a CBK Gov. dposis a commrcial banks Gov. advancs o parasaals N domsic db Govrnmn Domsic Borrowing During h monh of January 2012, Govrnmn scuriis worh Kshs billion wr advrisd. Bids worh Kshs billion wr rcivd, ou of which Kshs 53.47billion and Kshs billion wr bids for h Trasury Bills and Trasury Bonds rspcivly. Succssful bids amound o Kshs billion agains h monh s rdmpions of Kshs billion laving a surplus of Kshs 8.32 billion. Tabl 8: Govrnmn domsic borrowing, in Kshs million Trasury Bills Trasury Bonds Toal Advrisd 38,000 18,400 56,400 Bids rcivd 53,468 33,134 86,602 Succssful bids 38,322 16,332 54,605 Rdmpions (cos) 36,381 9,905 46,286 N domsic borrowing 1,941 6,427 8,319 Pag 6 of 12

8 Tabl 9: Domsic db insrumns by holdr, in Kshs billion Insrumn/Holdr Commrcial banks Non banks Cnral Bank of Knya Non rsidns Toal Trasury bonds Trasury bills Ohrs Toal Prcnag holding I should b nod ha i is non-banks ha now hold h largs proporion of h ousanding Govrnmn db scuriis amouning o Kshs billion or 46.1 prcn as shown in Tabl 9 and Char 5. Th commrcial banks which has bn holding h largs porion of Govrnmn scuriis now hold 45.0 prcn of h ousanding Govrnmn papr. Th non banks cagory compriss non bank financial insiuions, Naional Social Scuriy Fund (NSSF), parasaals, insuranc companis, building sociis, pnsion funds and individuals. Govrnmn db scuriis worh Kshs billion or 1.3 prcn wr hld by non rsidns who invs hrough nomin accouns in h local banks. Kshs billion hld by Cnral Bank of Knya compriss of Rpo Trasury Bills usd for xcuion of monary policy. Char 5: Domsic db by holdr as a nd January 2012 Non rsidns 1.3% Cnral Bank of Knya 7.6% Non banks 46.1% Commrcial banks 45.0% Pag 7 of 12

9 3.3 Domsic Db by Insrumns Char 6 shows ha as a nd January 2012, 79.1 prcn of Govrnmn domsic db was in Trasury Bonds, 13.7 prcn in Trasury Bills whil h balanc is mainly h ovrdraf a h Cnral Bank of Knya. Th srucur of h holding is consisn wih h db sragy of holding mor domsic db on longr dad insrumns o minimis rfinancing risk and promo dvlopmn of domsic marks for Govrmn db. Char 6: Domsic db by insrumn P r o p o r i o n % 13.7% 7.2% 0.0 Trasury Bonds Trasury Bills Ohrs Db Insrumn Pag 8 of 12

10 3.4 N Domsic Financing Tabl 10 shows ha as a nd Janaury 2012, h n domsic financing sood a Kshs billion. Tabl 10: N domsic financing, in Kshs billion Jun-2011 January 2012 Chang Trasury Bills (20.73) Trasury Bonds Long rm Sock Pr-1997 Gov. Ovrdraf db (1.11) Ohr of which Ovrdraf (from CBK) Gov. dposis (31.43) N Domsic Crdi Cumulaiv Domsic Inrs Paymns As a nd January 2012, Govrnmn acual cumulaiv domsic inrs paymns sood a Kshs billion agains h cumulaiv projcd inrs paymns of Kshs billion. Acual inrs paymns on Trasury Bonds and Trasury Bills amound o Kshs billion and Kshs 7.13 billion rspcivly. Th oal varianc of Kshs 2.05 billion is aribud o coninud rising inrs ras for Govrnmn scuriis ovr h priod. Tabl 11: Domsic inrs paymns, in Kshs million Typ of db Projcd Acual Varianc Trasury bonds 31, , , Trasury bills 7, , (83.43) Ovrdraf , Pr-1997 ovrdraf db (543.09) Toals 39, , , Pag 9 of 12

11 3.6 Avrag Inrs ras for Trasury Bills Char 7 shows h monhly rnds on avrag inrs ras for boh h 91-day and 182-day Trasury Bills sinc January During h monh of Janaury 2012, h avrag inrs ras for h 91-day Trasury bills ros by 266 basis poins o prcn whil h 182-day and 364-day Trasury bills incrasd by 288 and 100 basis poins rspcivly o and prcn pr annum rspcivly. Char 7: Avrag inrs ras on Trasury Bills 91-D ay 182-D ay I n r s R a P riod 3.7 Yilds on Trasury Bonds Th Govrnmn has bn implmning a Bnchmark Bond programm o incras liquidiy around slcd Bonds and promo scondary rading. On of h ky objcivs of h programm is o lowr boh rfinancing risk and cos of borrowing by h Govrmn. Tabl 12 shows h yilds on slcd Trasury Bonds in h scondary mark. Th curv is invrd rflcing h currn mark rnds wih high yilds a h shor nd of h mark bu rnding upwards in h mid o long rm. Th yilds ar illusrad in Char 8. Tabl 12 :Yilds on slcd Trasury Bonds Tnur Ra (%) 2 YR 19.50% 5 YR 15.29% 10 YR 13.44% 15 YR 13.69% 20 YR 14.00% 25 YR 15.17% Pag 10 of 12

12 Char 8:Yilds on slcd Trasury Bonds 20.00% R a % 19.00% 18.00% 17.00% 16.00% 15.00% 14.00% 13.00% 12.00% 11.00% 10.00% 2 YR 5 YR 10 YR 15 YR 20 YR 25 YR Tnur

13 ANNEX 1: STOCK OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT BY SOURCE (IN KSHS MILLIONS) CREDITOR CENRAL GOVERMENT BILATERAL Sock a nd Dcmbr 2011 Sock a nd January 2012 Chang AUSTRIA 1, , BELGIUM 7, , CANADA 1, , (6.64) DENMARK 2, , FINLAND FRANCE 34, , , GERMANY 23, , ,59 ITALY 2, , JAPAN 66, , NETHERLANDS 3, , UK 2, , (52.94) USA 5, , (121.02) PARIS CLUB OTHERS 5, , NON PARIS CLUB 38, , (293.88) o/w CHINA 31, , (346.41) Sub oal 195, , , MULTILATERAL ADB/AFDB 64, , (291.23) EEC/EIB 10, , , IDA 283, , , IFAD 6, , IMF 47, , (6,461.46) OTHERS 9, , (113.66) Sub oal 422, , (3,254.85) SUPPLIERS CREDIT 22, , Sub Toal 639, , GUARANTEED DEBT CANADA (2.11) JAPAN 41, , USA (1.43) IDA(KR Concssionair) 3, , (21.62) Sub Toal 45, , GOK+ GUARANTEED TOTAL 685, , , Pag 11 of 12

14 Informaion in his publicaion may b rproducd wihou rsricion providd ha du acknowldgmn of h sourc is mad. Enquiris covring h publicaion should b addrssd o: Th Dircor, Db Managmn Dparmn, Minisry of Financ 1s Floor, Trasury Building, Haramb Avnu P.O Box , Nairobi, Knya Tl: (254) Fax: (254) dmd@rasury.go.k Pag 12 of 12