Pollara Strategic Insights: USMCA/NAFTA Poll, Wave 3. Online Survey. Conducted Late October 2018.
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- Mervin Wilcox
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1 Pollara Strategic Insights: USMCA/NAFTA Poll, Wave 3. Online Survey. Conducted Late October A1. As you may know, during the last Presidential election in the U.S., President Donald Trump promised to negotiate a new version of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), or cancel it entirely if the U.S. cannot get a deal that he felt was better than the existing agreement. As a consequence, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico spent more than a year negotiating in order to create a new, updated version of NAFTA. Earlier this month, they announced that they had agreed on a deal - a revised version of NAFTA that will replace NAFTA and be given a new name. It will likely be called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Based on what you know about it... overall, do you approve or disapprove of this new free trade agreement? A1..APPROVAL USMCA Total (+100) Strongly approve 6% 7% 5% 5% 5% 8% 9% 3% 8% 3% 7% 7% 5% 6% ( +50) Somewhat approve 35% 36% 27% 36% 37% 40% 42% 29% 38% 41% 35% 44% 19% 30% ( -50) Somewhat disapprove 26% 20% 27% 25% 29% 31% 25% 27% 22% 22% 26% 21% 39% 24% (-100) Strongly disapprove 10% 10% 10% 9% 11% 10% 11% 9% 7% 10% 8% 7% 17% 10% Don't know/ Unsure 22% 27% 31% 25% 18% 11% 13% 31% 25% 24% 24% 21% 20% 31% 42% 43% 33% 40% 41% 48% 51% 33% 46% 44% 42% 51% 24% 35% 36% 30% 37% 34% 40% 41% 36% 36% 29% 32% 35% 28% 56% 33% A1. A1..APPROVAL USMCA Total UWt Wgt (+100) Strongly approve 8% 9% 8% 6% 6% 9% 10% 5% 11% 4% 9% 9% 6% 8% ( +50) Somewhat approve 46% 50% 39% 48% 45% 45% 48% 43% 51% 54% 46% 56% 24% 43% ( -50) Somewhat disapprove 34% 28% 39% 34% 36% 35% 29% 39% 29% 28% 35% 27% 49% 35% (-100) Strongly disapprove 13% 13% 14% 12% 14% 11% 12% 13% 9% 14% 11% 9% 21% 14% 54% 59% 47% 54% 51% 54% 59% 47% 62% 58% 55% 64% 30% 51% 46% 41% 53% 46% 49% 46% 41% 53% 38% 42% 45% 36% 70% 49% A2.a And, based on what you know about it... overall, do you feel that this new free trade agreement (USMCA) will be good or bad for... Canada? A2.a.RATE AGREEMENT- CANADA Total (+100) Very good 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 5% 4% 3% 5% 3% 7% 4% 2% 5% ( +50) Somewhat good 27% 24% 21% 26% 32% 31% 32% 21% 29% 28% 17% 34% 17% 24% ( -50) Somewhat bad 26% 25% 25% 28% 28% 24% 26% 26% 22% 25% 32% 22% 33% 26% (-100) Very bad 8% 5% 11% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 5% 12% 5% 5% 13% 10% Both good and bad 16% 17% 15% 11% 13% 21% 14% 17% 16% 14% 17% 17% 16% 9% Neither good nor bad 4% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 4% 5% 2% 5% 1% 4% 9% 1% Don't know/ Unsure 16% 21% 19% 19% 13% 7% 12% 20% 22% 13% 22% 15% 11% 25% 30% 28% 24% 29% 34% 36% 36% 24% 34% 31% 24% 37% 18% 29% 34% 30% 35% 37% 37% 32% 34% 34% 27% 37% 37% 26% 46% 36%
2 A2.b And, based on what you know about it... overall, do you feel that this new free trade agreement (USMCA) will be good or bad for... your province? A2.b.RATE AGREEMENT- YOUR PROVINCE Total (+100) Very good 4% 4% 5% 2% 2% 6% 5% 2% 4% 3% 4% 5% 1% 3% ( +50) Somewhat good 24% 22% 19% 27% 26% 26% 28% 19% 30% 19% 22% 31% 10% 22% ( -50) Somewhat bad 25% 24% 22% 24% 29% 27% 24% 27% 22% 29% 25% 20% 34% 23% (-100) Very bad 11% 8% 12% 10% 14% 12% 13% 9% 5% 13% 6% 5% 24% 13% Both good and bad 13% 12% 15% 13% 10% 17% 12% 14% 12% 14% 17% 16% 11% 3% Neither good nor bad 5% 5% 7% 5% 2% 5% 5% 5% 2% 8% 2% 4% 8% 1% Don't know/ Unsure 18% 25% 21% 19% 16% 8% 13% 23% 23% 14% 24% 18% 12% 34% 27% 26% 24% 29% 28% 31% 33% 21% 34% 22% 26% 37% 11% 26% 36% 32% 34% 34% 44% 39% 37% 36% 28% 42% 31% 25% 58% 36% A2.c And, based on what you know about it... overall, do you feel that this new free trade agreement (USMCA) will be good or bad for... the U.S.? A2.c.RATE AGREEMENT- THE U.S. Total (+100) Very good 36% 29% 26% 39% 42% 45% 37% 34% 30% 35% 32% 37% 40% 30% ( +50) Somewhat good 34% 33% 37% 33% 30% 36% 38% 30% 34% 38% 26% 35% 32% 33% ( -50) Somewhat bad 3% 4% 2% 3% 5% 1% 3% 3% 4% 2% 8% 3% 2% 2% (-100) Very bad 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 4% 4% Both good and bad 6% 7% 7% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 9% 7% 6% 5% 2% Neither good nor bad 4% 2% 7% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 1% 4% 6% Don't know/ Unsure 16% 22% 19% 16% 13% 7% 11% 20% 22% 12% 25% 14% 11% 27% 69% 62% 63% 72% 72% 81% 75% 64% 63% 74% 58% 72% 72% 64% 5% 7% 5% 4% 6% 4% 5% 6% 6% 2% 10% 4% 6% 7% A2.d And, based on what you know about it... overall, do you feel that this new free trade agreement (USMCA) will be good or bad for... Mexico? A2.d.RATE AGREEMENT- MEXICO Total (+100) Very good 5% 4% 3% 8% 8% 6% 5% 6% 5% 3% 12% 6% 3% 7% ( +50) Somewhat good 29% 25% 25% 28% 34% 36% 34% 24% 28% 39% 19% 34% 21% 26% ( -50) Somewhat bad 17% 19% 13% 22% 18% 13% 20% 14% 18% 19% 24% 14% 19% 13% (-100) Very bad 5% 6% 9% 3% 3% 3% 5% 5% 3% 2% 5% 4% 9% 4%
3 Both good and bad 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 14% 10% 11% 9% 11% 7% 11% 11% 9% Neither good nor bad 4% 5% 6% 5% 3% 3% 3% 6% 2% 4% 2% 3% 9% Don't know/ Unsure 29% 30% 34% 27% 27% 26% 24% 34% 34% 22% 32% 27% 28% 41% 35% 29% 28% 35% 41% 42% 39% 30% 33% 42% 31% 40% 24% 33% 22% 26% 22% 24% 21% 15% 25% 19% 21% 21% 28% 18% 28% 17% A2.a And, based on what you know about it... overall, do you feel that this new free trade agreement (USMCA) will be good or bad for... Canada? A2.a.RATE AGREEMENT- CANADA Total UWt Wgt (+100) Very good 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 5% 5% 4% 6% 4% 9% 4% 2% 6% ( +50) Somewhat good 32% 30% 26% 33% 36% 34% 37% 27% 37% 32% 22% 40% 19% 32% ( -50) Somewhat bad 31% 32% 31% 34% 33% 25% 29% 32% 28% 29% 41% 26% 37% 34% (-100) Very bad 9% 6% 13% 11% 10% 9% 9% 10% 7% 14% 6% 5% 15% 14% Both good and bad 19% 21% 19% 13% 15% 23% 16% 21% 20% 16% 21% 20% 18% 12% Neither good nor bad 5% 6% 7% 5% 3% 5% 4% 6% 2% 5% 1% 5% 10% 2% 36% 35% 30% 36% 39% 39% 41% 30% 43% 36% 31% 44% 21% 39% 40% 38% 44% 46% 43% 34% 38% 42% 34% 43% 47% 31% 52% 48% A2.b And, based on what you know about it... overall, do you feel that this new free trade agreement (USMCA) will be good or bad for... your province? A2.b.RATE AGREEMENT- YOUR PROVINCE Total UWt Wgt (+100) Very good 4% 5% 6% 2% 2% 6% 6% 3% 6% 4% 6% 6% 1% 5% ( +50) Somewhat good 29% 29% 24% 33% 31% 28% 33% 25% 39% 22% 29% 38% 12% 34% ( -50) Somewhat bad 31% 33% 27% 30% 35% 29% 27% 35% 29% 34% 33% 24% 39% 36% (-100) Very bad 13% 10% 15% 12% 17% 14% 15% 12% 7% 15% 8% 6% 27% 20% Both good and bad 16% 15% 19% 16% 12% 18% 14% 19% 16% 16% 22% 20% 12% 4% Neither good nor bad 6% 7% 8% 6% 3% 5% 5% 7% 3% 9% 2% 5% 9% 1% 33% 35% 30% 36% 33% 34% 39% 28% 45% 26% 34% 44% 13% 39% 44% 43% 42% 43% 52% 43% 42% 47% 36% 48% 41% 31% 66% 56% A2.c And, based on what you know about it... overall, do you feel that this new free trade agreement (USMCA) will be good or bad for... the U.S.? A2.c.RATE AGREEMENT- THE U.S. Total UWt Wgt (+100) Very good 42% 38% 32% 46% 48% 48% 42% 43% 38% 40% 42% 43% 45% 42% ( +50) Somewhat good 40% 42% 46% 39% 34% 39% 43% 38% 43% 43% 35% 41% 36% 46% ( -50) Somewhat bad 4% 6% 3% 3% 6% 1% 3% 4% 5% 3% 10% 4% 3% 3%
4 (-100) Very bad 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 4% 6% Both good and bad 7% 8% 8% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 10% 9% 7% 5% 3% Neither good nor bad 4% 3% 9% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 5% 4% 1% 4% 7% 82% 80% 78% 85% 82% 87% 84% 80% 81% 83% 77% 84% 81% 88% 6% 9% 6% 5% 7% 4% 5% 7% 8% 3% 13% 5% 7% 9% A2.d And, based on what you know about it... overall, do you feel that this new free trade agreement (USMCA) will be good or bad for... Mexico? A2.d.RATE AGREEMENT- MEXICO Total UWt Wgt (+100) Very good 8% 6% 4% 11% 11% 8% 6% 9% 8% 4% 18% 9% 4% 12% ( +50) Somewhat good 41% 35% 38% 38% 46% 48% 45% 37% 43% 50% 28% 46% 29% 43% ( -50) Somewhat bad 24% 28% 20% 29% 24% 17% 26% 22% 28% 24% 35% 20% 26% 21% (-100) Very bad 7% 9% 14% 4% 4% 3% 6% 7% 4% 3% 7% 5% 13% 7% Both good and bad 15% 15% 15% 12% 12% 18% 13% 17% 14% 13% 10% 16% 15% 16% Neither good nor bad 6% 7% 10% 6% 4% 5% 4% 9% 3% 6% 2% 5% 13% 49% 41% 42% 48% 56% 56% 51% 45% 50% 54% 46% 55% 33% 56% 31% 37% 33% 33% 28% 21% 32% 29% 32% 27% 42% 25% 39% 28% A3. And, based on what you know... overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the federal Liberal Government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did in these negotiations? A3..APPROVE- GOVERMENT ON TRADE AGREEMENT Total (+100) Strongly approve 12% 10% 11% 10% 12% 19% 15% 10% 15% 8% 6% 16% 9% 11% ( +50) Somewhat approve 35% 38% 27% 30% 34% 41% 35% 34% 47% 30% 40% 38% 22% 39% ( -50) Somewhat disapprove 23% 20% 26% 28% 26% 19% 22% 25% 14% 25% 22% 18% 39% 17% (-100) Strongly disapprove 16% 12% 19% 15% 20% 15% 18% 13% 10% 25% 19% 16% 15% 11% Don't know/ Unsure 14% 21% 18% 16% 8% 5% 9% 19% 15% 12% 13% 12% 15% 21% 47% 48% 38% 40% 45% 60% 50% 43% 61% 38% 46% 53% 31% 50% 39% 32% 44% 44% 46% 35% 40% 38% 24% 50% 41% 34% 54% 29% A3. A3..APPROVE- GOVERMENT ON TRADE AGREEMENT Total UWt Wgt (+100) Strongly approve 14% 12% 14% 12% 13% 20% 16% 12% 17% 9% 7% 18% 11% 14% ( +50) Somewhat approve 40% 48% 32% 35% 37% 44% 39% 41% 55% 34% 46% 43% 26% 50% ( -50) Somewhat disapprove 27% 25% 31% 34% 29% 20% 24% 30% 17% 29% 25% 21% 45% 22%
5 (-100) Strongly disapprove 18% 15% 23% 18% 22% 16% 20% 17% 11% 28% 21% 18% 18% 14% 54% 60% 46% 48% 49% 63% 56% 53% 72% 43% 53% 61% 37% 64% 46% 40% 54% 52% 51% 37% 44% 47% 28% 57% 47% 39% 63% 36% A4. And, based on what you know... overall, do you feel that the Justin Trudeau Liberal Government...? A4..RATE GOVERMENT ON TRADE AGREEMENT Total Got the best possible deal for Canada, under the circumstances 39% 39% 29% 36% 42% 51% 43% 37% 43% 40% 35% 44% 30% 41% Should have continued negotiating for a better deal for Canada, even if it risked not having any free trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico, and the U.S. putting tariffs on the Canadian auto sector Should have walked away from these negotiations and let NAFTA be cancelled without joining any new or revised free trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico 31% 34% 34% 32% 29% 26% 33% 29% 24% 33% 32% 28% 41% 25% 10% 3% 12% 13% 13% 10% 10% 10% 11% 12% 10% 8% 9% 12% Don't know/ Unsure 20% 24% 25% 20% 16% 13% 15% 25% 22% 15% 23% 19% 20% 22% A4. A4..RATE GOVERMENT ON TRADE AGREEMENT Total Got the best possible deal for Canada, under the circumstances Should have continued negotiating for a better deal for Canada, even if it risked not having any free trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico, and the U.S. putting tariffs on the Canadian auto sector Should have walked away from these negotiations and let NAFTA be cancelled without joining any new or revised free trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico UWt Wgt % 51% 39% 44% 50% 58% 50% 49% 55% 48% 46% 55% 37% 53% 39% 45% 45% 39% 34% 30% 39% 38% 31% 38% 41% 35% 51% 32% 12% 4% 16% 17% 16% 12% 11% 13% 15% 14% 13% 10% 12% 15%
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