July Introduction. end of the FY. months of isn t directly. comparable. percent of total expenditure.

Transcription

1 Sub-national Public Finance Management in Myanmar Budget Brief Series: Ayeyarwaddy No.2 Introduction July Public finance management willl play an essential role in Ayeyarwaddy s development, as well as the development of other States and Regions. Governments have to make difficult choices about how to allocate scarce resources to achieve societal goals for economic growth and poverty alleviation. Healthy public finance management is essential to ensure effective prioritization of government targets, efficiency and equity of spending. The aim of the budget brief series is to encourage continuous debate on policy priorities, state of public finance as well as to promote budget transparency and accountability. We hope the series to provide vital data analysis, which is fundamental to successful public finance management. This brief would not have been possible without cooperation from the Ayeyarwaddy budget department, to which we extend our gratitude This second Ayeyarwaddy budget brief provides an update to an overview of the current fiscal environment in Ayeyarwaddy reviews the composition of its revenue and expenditure, with inclusion of the Fiscal Year (FY) and the 218 interim budget. The most significant recent development is a shift in Myanmar s budget calendar, from April-March to October- end of the FY on March 31, 218 and the new fiscal year, to commence on October 1, 218. The difficulties in implementing infrastructure projects hampered by the onset of the rainy season (during the months of June - October) is the commonly cited rationale behind the change. The shortened length of the interim budget means it isn t directly comparable to previous budget years. Ayeyarwaddy s expenditure have continued to grow in recent three full fiscal years and reached MMK 159 billion or about 25,7 kyat per person in FY - the smallest in the country on per capita basis. Increases in September. To accompany the change a 6-month interim budget was introduced to cover the period bridging the budget expenditure are consistently financed by the transferss from the Union government, which account to 85 percent of total expenditure. Tax revenues remains constrained, with heavy reliance on receipts from fisheries and excise tax. Non-tax revenue sources account for roughly 6 percent of own revenues. Own revenue performance - outside of fiscal transferr - has hovered around 16 percent of total revenue in the last four budget cycles. The share of capital expenditure stands at a little over 6 percent of total expenditure in Ayeyarwaddy, with largest share of resources spent by the Department of Highways. In 218 (interim), capital expenditure of regional Cabinet Office grew and accounted for 95 percent of the region s total capital expenditure, mostly for electricity supply and agricultural water supply-related expenses. It is unknown whether this relatively high capital expendituree under the Cabinet Office is due to unavoidable infrastructure maintenance or local political preferences. 1 Ayeyarwaddy Budget department under the Ministry of Planning of Finance is a source for all budget figures. Budget department is not responsible for any of the statements in this report. Any errors are the responsibility of the authors. 1

2 Aggregate fiscal environment 3. Overall government spending in Ayeyarwaddy has been expanding at a modest pace since FY. After a 18 percent contraction in FY compared to the previous year, total expenditure grew from MMK 133 billion ( FY) to MMK 148 billion in FY and MMK 159 billion in FY (RE). The regional government s estimated total own revenue collection for the budget estimate is MMK 23 billion (Fig. 1). 2,3 Own revenue, which includes incomes from local taxes (as per Schedule 5 of the constitution) and non-tax own current revenue, performance initially contracted in FY and slightly reboundedd in FY and FY. 4 For the six-month 218 (interim) budget (shaded bars in Fig. 1), total expenditure is estimated to be MMK 68 billion and own revenues estimated at MMK 1 billion. Million Kyat 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Figure 1: Revenue and Expenditure Kyat per capitaa (PA) 29, 26, 23, 2, 17, 14, 11, 8, 5, 2, (RE) 218 (interim) Total Own Revenue Total Expenditure Per capitaa expenditure Per capita own revenue Own revenue of Ayeyarwaddy region includes (i) revenues from localtaxesand (ii) other non-tax current revenue such as renting public properties and fines and penalties. Thecontraction seen after FY are likely due to changing accounting norms which saw the reorganization of the Public Works department. For more details, seee the Ayeyarwaddy's budget brief (No. 1) which covers between and FYs. Revenue figures exclude any transfers from theunionidentified in available budget formats. Those are the Union general grant transfer, constituency development fund (CDF) and Union collected tax revenue-sharing and other small miscellaneous transfers. 4. Union transfers are the major source of finance for the regional budget. Unionn transfers to Ayeyarwaddy have been steadily growing in absolute terms but remained fairly consistent as a proportion of total revenue since FY (Fig. 2). Traditionally, Union transfers to state/region governments have been negotiated functioning as deficit grants. Since the medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF) reforms in FY allocation of the general grant transfer has been formula-based. 5 Total Union transfers stood at MMK 135 billion in FY, an increase of almost MMK 22 billion from the previous mostly through sharing of Union collected taxes. 6 Other current revenue made 1 and 3 percent in and 218 interim budgets, respectively. 2 BE = Budget Estimate, RE = Revised Budget Estimate, PA = Provisional Actual (Preliminary approved data before the Auditor General approved), A = Actual (Approved by Auditor General). 3 Revenue and Expenditure data used in this budget brief was provided by the Budget Department of the. 4 This contraction was likely due to changing accounting norms, as discussed in the previous budget brief. 5 Application of the formula requires a deeper discussion. As it stands, the general grant transfer formula is based on the 6 equally weighted indicators: 1) state/region Population 2) state/region Poverty Index 3) state/region per Capita GDP 4) state/region Land Area 5) state/region Urban Population 6) Per Capita Tax Collection in state/region. 6 This consists of the general grant transfer, which refers to the formula-generated unconditional block grant to all States and Regions and makes up the largest transferr from the Union to subnational governments, as well as several other small transfers whichh have so far always amounted to less than MMK 8 billion for. 2

3 Million Kyat Figure 2: Breakdown of fiscal resources 2, 15, 1, 5, (PA) (RE) 218 (interim) Union general grant transfer Other Transfers Total Own Revenue Other Union transfers are budgeted as/for: Poverty alleviation and development, Constituency Development Fund (CDF), township development affairs, housing project transfer, program for landless persons, receipts from SEEs. Starting FY only include CDF and Union collected tax revenue sharing. There is no capital and financial revenue in Ayeyarwaddy according to the availabel budget data. 5. Ayeyarwaddy government s fiscal resources, a sum of the Union transfers and own revenue collection, are currently the lowest in the country on per capita basis (Fig. 3). Per capita revenue was estimated at MMK 3,778 in FY. Meanwhile, total revenue and expenditure for FY were both estimated at MMK 159 billion, which is the equivalent of a per capita spending of MMK 25,719. Although this is a slight increase from MMK 22,393 per citizen in FY, it remains below the level of MMK 26,459 in FY. 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Figure 3: Available Fiscal Resources by States and Regions Kyat per capita, (based on BE data) 6. Ayeyarwaddy s economy is not keeping pace with national GDP growth. 7 According to the national plans, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, current prices) growth rate in averaged 7.7 percent between and 218 (interim) fiscal years, significantly behind the national growth rate, which averaged 11.5 percent in the same time period. Aggregate regional government expenditure stood at 1.59 percent of regional GDP in FY (Fig. 5). This demonstrates the small size of the Regional government relatively to the local economy. 7 States and Regions GDP data and growth rate are from the national and regional planning laws and are presented in current prices. Most of the growth rate data are projections, although figures for and are based on revised data at the end of the given fiscal year. Actual growth rates may differ. 3

4 % GDP growth 2% 15.39% 15% 11.79% 12.17% 1% 5% % -5% Figure 4: GDP growth rate National and 4.66% 9.2% -2.75% 12.56% 11.77% 9.8% 8.24% (interim) National GDP Growth Ayeyarwaddy GDP Growth % of GDP Figure 5: Aggregate expenditure and growth 2.% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.%.8%.6%.4%.2%.% (interim) Expenditure as % of GDP 7. The regional government s fiscal balance has further stabilized. s fiscal balance fluctuations have become smaller, although the government has realized a slight deficit in recent fiscal years, according to estimated figures (Fig. 6). However, the government s estimated deficit in (RE) and the 218 (interim) budget are both so low less than half a billion kyat. Budget deviations as a percentage of regional GDP have since been negligible. Another notable advance is that despite rapid increases in spending, the Ayeyarwaddy government maintains a relatively low recurrent budget deficit (recurrent revenue covering recurrent expenditure) with a recurrent balance maintained at less than.4 percent of GDP since FY (Fig. 7). Million Kyat 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, Figure 6: Overall Balance, post-union transfers 3, Overall Balance (post-union transfers) Overall balance (as % of GDP) 2, , (PA) (RE) 218 (interim) % of GDP.15%.1%.5%.% -.5% -.1% -.15%.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% -1.2% -1.4% -1.6% Figure 7: Fiscal balance, pre-union transfers -.19% -1.% Current Balance (% of GDP) Fiscal balance (as % of GDP) -.32% -.32% -.37% -1.2% % (PA) -1.35% (RE) -.31% -1.5% 218 (interim) 8. Budget deviations are moderate but increasing compared to previous years. Tax collecting agencies habitually under-estimate revenues in order to meet their revenue targets and that leads to the rush in spending on unplanned expenditures in latter stages of the budget cycle. Although over-realized revenues may seem beneficial, it leads to budget deviations, which relates to challenges in effective planning and execution of expenditures. From FY to FY, budget deviations were never higher than 3 percent of revenues or expenditures, which represents.4 percent of nominal GDP (Fig. 8). However, in budget revisions revealed deviations on both sides of roughly 8 percent, equivalent to.11 percent (expenditure) and.12 percent (revenues) of nominal GDP. 4

5 Figure 8: Budget deviations Deviations on planned expenditure and revenue (relative to approved budgets - BE) - % of planned (BE) 11% 15% 1% 95% 9% (A-RE) (PA-BE) (RE-BE) % of estimated expenditure % of estimated revenue Revenue Performance 9. Nearly all of the revenue in Ayeyarwaddy budget is classified as current revenue. Although capital revenue is occasionally recorded on budget books, it s negligible in size and hence not explored in this brief. Current revenue can be characterized as tax and non-tax of own revenue collection, and central Union transfers (Table 1). What is referred to as "own" revenue excludes the Union general grant transfer, Community Development Fund (CDF), Union collected tax revenue sharing and other ad-hoc transfers prior to FY. While Union collected shared taxes are collected within Ayeyarwaddy borders they are fully administered by the Union government and are treated as transfers from the center. Union general grant transfer Transfers from Union Constituency Development Fund (CDF), other ad-hoc transfers Table 1: Current revenue Union tax revenue sharing: commercial tax, income tax, special goods tax, and stamp duty tax Non-tax Fees, penalties etc. Own revenue Tax Region taxes: Fisheries tax, excise tax, property tax, and other taxes under Schedule 5 of the Constitution 8 in total Note: Although most regional revenues are categorized as taxes, in practice, most of them (except for property taxes) are applied as license fees. 1. Fiscal autonomy is constrained as own revenue mobilization remains consistently low. Fiscal expansion in recent years has primarily been financed through increased Union transfers, although the proportion of expenditure financed by own revenue has been relatively stable in the past four budget cycles. In FY, the proportion of own revenue outside of Union transfers (as a percentage of total expenditure) decreased by two percentage points to 15 percent, although it is predicted to slightly rise to 16 percent in the 218 (interim) budget estimate (Fig. 9). 5

6 Figure 9: Breakdown of revenue sources Million Kyat Total transfers Total Own Revenue 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, (PA) (RE) (interim) Note: Transferss include Unionn Grant Transfer, Constituency Development Fund (CDF) and other smalll and miscellaneous types of transfers beforee FY. In recent years starting from FY, Grant transfers, Union tax sharing and CDF has existed. In 218 (interim), only Grant transfers and tax sharing are recorded as transfers in regional budget. Own revenue = region s total revenue transfers Local taxes refer to constitutionally assigned taxes to state/region governments. They include excise tax, tax on water usage, land tax, embankment tax, tax on extraction of mineral, tax on fisheries, tax on extraction of forest products, property tax and wheel tax and which are collected by 5 different agencies. Non-tax revenue mostly come from receipts on fines and penalties and renting the office properties, are major source of own revenue for sub-national governments. 11. Non-tax current revenue makes up the majority of regional own revenue. Own revenue can be classified as tax revenue and non-tax current revenue (above Table 1). Non-tax current revenue has consistently contributed 6 percent or more to the region s own revenue collection over the last 5 full fiscal years (Fig. 1). In FY, own revenue mobilization totaled an estimated MMK 23 billion of which tax revenue accounted for 4 percent. Overall, tax revenue accounts for just 6 percent of total revenue for FY at MMK 9.5 billion, down from a high of 8 percent in FY. Recorded own revenue decline in FY may have been driven by the change in accounting arrangements following the reorganizationn of Public Works within the Ministry of Construction (see previous budget brief, paragraph 1). 8 In 218 (interim), own revenue is estimated at nearly MMK 11 billion or 16 percent of total revenue. 12. Municipal offices (DAOs) typically mobilize the most of own revenue (Fig. 11). 9 In FY, DAOs accounted for MMK 13 billion or 57 percent of estimated local own revenues. A further 25 percent (or nearly MMK 6 billion) of own revenue was derived from fishery tax collected by the Department of Fisheries. In the 218 (interim) budget, DAOs are again estimated to account for the largest amount of non-tax current receipts at MMK 7 billion or 63 percent in the six-month interim budget. 8 Pre-restructuring accounting norms of Public Works might have also inflated own current revenue collection numbers. 9 Revenues recorded at the Cabinet Office include tax sharing and CDF development grant transferss (MMK 18 billion and 2.6 billion in FY, respectively) which technically speaking do not constitute own revenues. Excluding these two external transfers, Cabinet Office revenues were barely MMK.3 billion that year. They are included here in line with local accounting norms even they do not form part of Own Revenue reported in section 4 and 5 because the data required to isolate Cabinet Office own revenue is unavailable for previous years. 6

7 Figure 11: Total own revenue breakdown by administrative units, 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % (PA) (BE) (RE) 218 interim Others Forestry Department Cabinet Office Regional Courts General Aministration Department Department of Fisheries DAOs 13. Tax revenue collection is reliant on the Department of Fisheries. The department accounted for nearly MMK 6 billion or 59 percent of tax receipts in the FY revised budget (Fig. 13). The General Administration Department (GAD), which chiefly collects Excise tax, and Development Affairs Organizations (DAOs) which collect Property Tax and Wheel Tax, are the second and third largest contributors, respectively. 1 Million Kyat Figure 12: Tax revenue breakdown by department in Ayeyarwaddy, RE GAD DAOs (PA) (RE) 218 (interim) Department of Fisheries Forestry Department Figure 13: Tax revenue breakdown by tax items in, RE 3% 2% 4% 12% 59% 25% Excise Tax Tax on Fisheries Property Tax Forest Product Extraction Wheel Tax Others Composition of Expenditure 14. Regional government expenditure trend shows positive and moderate growth, after a drop in Expenditure growth could be expected to move in tandem with the Union government fiscal transfers to the region. For the 218 (interim) budget, total expenditure is budgeted at MMK 68 billion reflecting the shorter budget cycle. 1 GADs also collect land tax, embankment tax, and tax on mining of minerals, which are all negligible in Ayeyarwaddy and thus included in the Others category of fig

8 Million Kyat 15, Figure 14: Aggregate expenditure YoY Expenditure growth rate 6% 1, 3% 5, % (PA) (RE) 218 (interim) -3% Total Expenditure Expenditure Growth rate 15. The Department of Highways (DOH) has (since its formation in FY) constantly been the largest overall spender amongst administrative units, with a budget of nearly MMK 66 billion in FY. 11 This amounts to 41 prcent of total expenditure (Fig. 15), and was followed by the Cabinet Office, GAD and DAOs which spent MMK 41 billion, 14 billion, and 13 billion (respectively) during the same period. The smaller departments listed in figure 15 each spent between MMK 3 and 5 billion. However, this trend changed in the six-month interim budget where the Cabinet office, at MMK 32 billion, accounted for 47 percent of total expenditure (Fig. 15) while the DOH s budget was a smaller MMK 13 billion or 19 percent of total expenditure. Figure 15: Total expenditure breakdown By administrative units, 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % (PA) (RE) 218 (interim) Others Regional Parliament Forestry Department Department of Agriculture Fire Services DAOs Cabinet Office GAD DOH 16. The Department of Highways is estimated to be the largest capital spender in absolute terms at almost MMK 48 billion in FY (Fig. 17). Total capital expenditure during that fiscal year was MMK 99 billion. However, the Cabinet Office had the largest proportional capital expenditure allocation during that fiscal year at 81 percent of its budget, followed by the DOH and DAOs (at 73 percent and 57 percent, respectively). 17. The share of capital expenditure as a percentage of total expenditure had been consistent (at around 62 percent) in the previous three budget cycles but increased in the 218 (interim) budget (Fig. 16). In the 218 six-month fiscal period, the overall share of capital expenditure rose to 67 percent, equal to almost MMK 46 billion. This is unexpected given that states and regions may only initiate capital investment projects that can be completed in six months or less during the interim budget. The compositional change is driven by a relative increase in the Cabinet Office s expenditure allocation, whose total budget for the six-month period stands at MMK 32 billion four-fifths the size of the previous budget cycle s allocation of MMK 41 billion of which 81 percent is allocated to capital expenditure (amounting to 66 percent of total capital expenditure in that period). In 218 interim budget, capital expenditure for irrigation and electricity supply works was MMK 17 billion and 8.7 billion respectively, and equivalent to 57 percent and 28 percent of the cabinet office s capital expenditure. 11 Department of Highways (DOH) in Ayeyarwaddy is responsible for building and maintaining regional roads in Ayeyarwaddy. 8

9 Million Kyat 2, Figure 16: Expenditure breakdown by type, % of capital expenditure in total 75% 1% Figure 17: Expenditure Breakdown By type, as share of departmental expenditure for (RE), Capital Current 16, 6% 8% 12, 45% 6% 8, 3% 4% 4, 15% 2% (PA) (RE) (interim) % % DOH Cabinet Office GAD DAOs Others Capital Expenditure Current Expenditure 18. Current expenditure was allocated consistently amogst the largest departments up until FY, although the proportions shifted slightly in the 218 interim budget (Fig. 19). In FY, total current expenditure across the region stood at MMK 6 billion of which the DOH, GAD, and Cabinet Office accounted for 3 percent, 19 percent and 13 percent, respectively. After the shifts in spending allocation in the six-month interim period, GAD was the largest department in terms of current spending with a little under MMK 6 billion or 25 percent of total current expenditure, followed by Others and DAOs at 24% and 14 percent, respectively. Figure 18: Capital expenditure composition by department, 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % (PA) (RE) 218 (interim) DOH Fire Services Regional Parliament Cabinet Office GAD DAOs UHDD Figure 19: Current expenditure composition by department, 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % (PA) (RE) 218 (interim) Others GAD DAOs Cooperative Department DOH Cabinet Office Department of Agriculture Final Remarks 19. The classification of budget data imposes limits on analysis. Despite recent progress in disclosure of budget information, there is room for improvement with a more detailed breakdown of current expenditure to help further analysis on sustainability and strategic allocation of resources. Aggregate reporting of budget data poses challenges in estimating resource distribution to a specific functionn of government or assessing expenditure efficiency. Economic or functional classification of the region budget will help in addressing some of the challenges. Furthermore, a more transparent view of the Union government s spending in Ayeyarwaddy, specifically in areas of education and health, would present a better picture of development in the region. Township level data will similarly allow for a more sophisticated review of local expenditure. Going forward it s important to assess the link between budgetary decision and impact on service delivery and social welfare across geography, gender, income levels, and other parameters. 9

10 2. Varying reporting formats for similar information and paper-based reporting between government departments inhibit budget transparency. Inconsistency across reporting formats and reliance on paper contribute to obstacles in aggregating and sharing budget information including to Hluttaw and between government departments. Moreover, the clerical burden assumed by the budget department civil service associated with aggregating paper-based data limits opportunities to engage with more analytical work. Digitizing the budget process could help in address inconsistencies across different government departments and facilitate communication and analysis of budget data. 21. Low tax share of sub-national revenue could result from limited tax authority, fragmentation of tax collection, weak administration and legal ambiguities. Currently, sub-national tax collection is fragmented into multiple agencies, possibly resulting in duplication of effort and incoordination. In addition, conversations with state and region government officials suggest confusion over legal authority to change outdated Union laws and tax rates for the constitutionally assigned sub-national tax items like land tax. There remains ambiguity concerning authority over the constitutionally assigned sub-national taxes; whether it extends to ownership of tax policy, administration and rate setting, or simply provides rights to funds. 22. States and regions have clear opportunities to expand existing revenues. Property tax represents a large source of untapped revenue for Myanmar s cities. Reforms to its tax administration can generate significant increases in revenues. Targeted reforms to property tax can help finance and match the growing demand for public services. For more on property tax in Myanmar see, Managing the challenges of rapid urbanization (link on next page). 23. Despite large unconditional transfers from the Union, questions remain about the degree of regional autonomy for prioritizing resources. Union transfers have been rising in absolute terms and make up over 8 percent of fiscal resources in recent Ayeyarwaddy budgets, but there is anecdotal evidence that line Ministries are simultaneously pressuring regional governments to spend more on Union projects. Questions therefore remain over the degree of regional autonomy on strategic allocation of its resources. 1

11 Additional resources Renaissance Institute budget resources page Union Citizen s budget Kayin Citizen s budget (218 interim) Bago Citizen s budget (218 interim) Kayar Citizen s budget Renaissance Institute s Budget Brief Series Managing the challenges of rapid urbanization A review of decentralization in Myanmar and the road sector The Asia Foundation Public Financial Management Glossary and Terms feb-18.pdf 11

12 About the Renaissance Institute The Renaissance Institute (RI) is a policy institute focused on assisting the reform of Myanmar s economy. RI provides analytical support, assists government capacity building and facilitates communicationn between Myanmar s government and other relevant stakeholders focused onn revitalizing Myanmar s economy. In particular, the Renaissance Institute is supporting key policy priorities of the current government: Fiscal decentralization, and Public Financial Management reform. No. 51-A6, Thayarwaddyy Street Sayar San Ward, Bahan Township Yangon, Myanmar Tel Fax: Acknowledgment This budget brief was prepared by Renaissance Institute and funded by thee governments of the United Kingdom, Australia and Switzerland. The views expressed in thiss publication are the author s alone and are not necessarily the views of the funding partners. 12