The Role of Lifestyle Changes in Low Carbon Strategies The case of Brazil and France

Transcription

1 The Role of Lifestyle Changes in Low Carbon Strategies The case of Brazil and France December, 11 12, 2017 Institute of Energy and Environment University of São Paulo HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS: a comparison Brazil / France Claude COHEN (UFF, Brazil) and Carine BARBIER (CIRED, France)

2 A DRAMATIC DECREASE OF WORLDWIDE GHG EMISSIONS IS REQUIRED 2

3 Towards Low Carbon Scenarios consistent with the limit of temperature increase below 2 C, ideally at 1.5 C tco2/capita CO2 per capita (from fuel combustion) Brazil France Reducing the world GHG emission to less than 1 tco2/capita in 2050 in order to limit the temperature increase of 1,5 C (UNEP Emissions Gap Report, 2016) requires a division of GHG emissions by 6 for France (and by 9 if the emissions embedded in imports are included) For Brazil, it means an inflexion of energyrelated emissions, which have been increasing up to now, while the middle class consumption is expected to increase and the poorest households basic needs still have to be satisfied. 3

4 CONSUMPTION PATTERNS : A KEY ISSUE IN ADRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, WGIII, Assessment Report 5, Chapter 5, Page 50 Consumer choices with regard to food, mobility, and housing, and more generally consumption patterns affect the environmental impact and GHG emissions associated with the services (Faber et al., 2012). Consumption patterns are shaped not only by economic forces, but also by technological, political, cultural, psychological, and environmental factors.» Historic data show a clear increase at the global level of key consumption activities of households that contribute to emissions, such as personal travel by car, intake of meat and fossil fuel consumption (Mont and Plepys, 2008). Behaviour is not only an implicit and relevant driver of emissions, but also equally important a potential agent for change in emissions. The Paris Agreement (COP21) recognized that lifestyles play an important role in addressing climate change (UNFCCC, 2015). Purely technological solutions cannot deliver a transition towards a low-carbon development by themselves: shifts in consumption patterns are required. 4

5 OBJECTIVES The project aims to achieve a better understanding of consumption pattern evolution and identifying: goods and services for which a substantial increase in consumption may be expected due to income gains and the expansion of middle classes in the emerging countries, the CO2 emissions related to these changes, consequently, the lifestyle changes leading to the largest CO2 emissions reductions and which should be targeted by climate policies, while ensuring that the population s basic needs are satisfied. To what extent we observe a convergence in consumption patterns between countries on the long run? What could be the role of shifts in consumption patterns in Low Carbon Strategies? 1/17/2018 5

6 COUNTRY PROFILES Brazil 2009 France 2010 Population 191 million 65 million Households 58 million 28 million Urban households 85% 80% Population annual growth rate 0.83 % 0.47 % Members per household ,1 Household per capita income (PPP US$ 2010) Top 10% income vs. bottom 10% income 41.5 x 8.8 x Top 10% expenses vs. bottom 10% expenses 7,6 x 4,1 x Gini index Population density (people per sq. km of land area) /17/2018 6

7 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Population projections Population growth rate ,0% Brazil ,5% France 2,0% ,5% 1,0% Projections Brazil : 0,5% France : 0,3% Brazil 0,5% France 0,0%

8 GDP PER CAPITA UP TO 2050 GDP per capita up to 2050 US$ 2005, PPP US$ at constant ppp FRANCE Stable gap %/y increasing gap BRAZIL + 2,7%/y

9 TOTAL BUDGET OF HOUSEHOLDS BY UNIT OF CONSUMPTION AND BY DECILE OF STANDARD OF LIFE French household expenditure is more than twice than Brazilian but the discrepancy between the extreme deciles is higher for Brazil, which is consistent with the high Gini coefficient of the country => a factor 7,8 between D1 and D10 household total expenses for Brazil, and 4,1 for France. For low income classes, the annual total budget of deciles 1 and 2 in France ranges over $ while it is lower than $ for the same deciles of standard of life in Brazil. US$ 2010 ppp/year x x Brazil France 1/17/2018 9

10 EXPENDITURE DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS ON AVERAGE Expenditure profile of a Brasilian Household Expenditure profile of a French Household 5% 9% 16% 3% 8% 5% 18% 36% Food Dwelling Home equipment Personal items Transport services Private transports Health and education Communication, leisure Total : US$ 2010ppp 6% 12% 3% 7% 13% 5% 20% 34% Food Dwelling Home equipment Personal items Transport services Private transports Health and education Communication, leisure Total : US$ 2010ppp For the two populations, food and housing expenses represent still 50% or more of the total household budgets, regardless the level income. Per capita mobility in Brazil is 30% lower than in France, but the budget share dedicated to transportation is clearly higher (19 %) for Brazilian households, to an extent never before seen in France during the last decades. 10

11 HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE BY DECILE OF STANDARD OF LIFE IN BRAZIL (in $ p p p ) D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D1 0 Ave r a g e D1 0 /D1 Food ,3 Dwe lling ,2 H om e e q u ip m e n t ,1 P e r s on a l it e m s ,7 Tr a n s p or t s e r vic e s ,9 P r iva t e t r a n s p or t s ,2 H e a lt h a n d e d u c a t ion ,1 Com m u n ic a t ion, le is u r e ,9 Ta xe s a n d ot h e r e xp e n s e ,7 Tot a l in c l. Ta xe s ,8 Tot a l wit h ou t t a xe s ,3 National household budget surveys (IBGE and INSEE) Harmonized classification of expenditure based on COICOP classification Large discrepancy between total expenditure of households. 11

12 MAIN INCREASING EXPENSES when the income level rises Br azil Fr ance D10/D1 D10/D1 F ood 3,3 2,5 Dwelling 8, 7 4, 2 Hom e equipm ent 5,1 5, 5 P er sona l item s 4,7 2,7 Tr a nspor t ser vices 2,9 2,6 P r iva te tr a nspor ts 1 8, 2 4, 5 Hea lth a nd educa tion 1 3, 1 2,6 Com m unica tion, leisur e 11,9 3,2 Tota l without ta xes 7,5 3,4 1/17/

13 WILL BRAZIL CONSUMPTION FOLLOW FRENCH CONSUMPTION? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1979 Communication, leisure Health and education Private transports Transport services Personal items Home equipment Dwelling Food Communication, leisure Health and education Private transports Transport services Personal items Home equipment Dwelling Food % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Communication, leisure Health and education Private transports Transport services Personal items Home equipment Dwelling Food Communication, leisure Health and education Private transports Transport services Personal items Home equipment Dwelling Food Budget Share Evolution in France Expenditure profiles between income classes have converged on the long run in France ( ). 1/17/

14 OVERALL BUDGET SHARES (except taxes and others expenses) 100% 90% BRAZIL FRANCE 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Communication, leisure Health and education Private transports Transport services Personal items Home equipment Dwelling Food 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% The most sensitive expenses to the income level are : For Brazil, private transportation expenses, then healthcare and educational costs and housing expenses. For France, home equipment, accommodation, then automobile purchase and mobility for leisure activities. Access to mobility and housing is still a major concern for low-income Brazilian households. 14

15 COMPARISON OF FOOD EXPENSES OF BRAZILIAN AND FRENCH HOUSEHOLDS BRAZIL Fish & Seafood Beverages Oils and fats Animal products Beef Sweet & other Other meats Poultry D1 Bread & cereals Fruits & Vegetables FRANCE Oils and fats Beverages Animal products Fish & Seafood Sweet & other Beef Other meats Fruits & Vegetables Bread & cereals Poultry D1 Bread & cereals Sweet & other Beverages Bread & cereals Fruits & Vegetables D10 Beverages Sweet & other Fruits & Vegetables D10 Oils and fats Animal products Beef Poultry Other meats Oils and fats Animal products Fish & Seafood Beef Other meats Poultry Fish & Seafood About 30% of the D1 food-at-home budget in Brazil is still dedicated to bread and cereals, and another 30% is dedicated to meat. The meat budget share is 21% in France. When the income level rises, the budget share of Fish and sea food increases in France but decreases deeply in Brazil. 15

16 COMPARISON OF FOOD EXPENSES OF BRAZILIAN AND FRENCH HOUSEHOLDS $2010 PPP BRAZIL Out of home Sweet & other FRANCE Beverages Oils and fats Animal products Fish & Seafood Beef Other meats Poultry Fruits & Vegetables Bread & cereals Food budgets are respectively multiplied by 3.3 and 2.5 between the extreme deciles in Brazil and in France. Out-of-home food budget has the highest income elasticity in the two countries 16

17 COMPARISON OF HOUSING BUDGETS 100% 90% BRAZIL FRANCE 100% 90% 80% Energy for home 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Water supply and miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling Loan payments for dwelling 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Major maintenance and repair of the dwelling 30% 20% 10% 0% Actual rentals for housing 10% 0% % of home owners in Brazil is higher than in France (69 % vs 57%), while the rental budget share are also higher in Brazil. Loan payments represent the bulk of the housing budget of French high-income households. The budget for major maintenance and repair of the dwelling is significantly increasing in France when the income level rises. Energy consumption budgets are more or less similar in the two countries, and heavy for the low-income classes. 17

18 COMPARISON OF HEALTH AND EDUCATION BUDGETS BRAZIL FRANCE Drugs, appliances, equipments Health services Private health care School fees for primary or secondary education Drugs, appliances and equipment Health services Health private care School fees (primary, secondary education) Other education expenses Other education expenses Health and education expenses represent one of the main differences in the household budget of the two countries. As we said before, French household expenses in these sectors expenditure are relatively low compared to the Brazilian situation because of the public coverage of the major part in France 18

19 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 COMPARISON OF TRANSPORT EXPENDITURE BRAZIL FRANCE Fuel for individual vehicle Individual vehicle maintenance and other services (parking, etc.) Purchase of individual vehicle Transports services In the two countries, the budget shares for transport services are quite low even if mobility by bus in Brazil is still large. Total cost of private transport in Brazil is quite high. Income elasticity of private transport is one of the highest among the household types of expenses in both countries. 19

20 COMPARISON OF TRANSPORT PROFILES Car ownership BRAZIL FRANCE 60% of the lowest income class (D1) in France own a car while it is the case for only 5 % of the same income class in Brazil. 20

21 HOUSEHOLD TRANSPORT DEMAND IN BRAZIL Transport use Brazil Public x private transportation (%) - Brazil A great share of the population travel through non-motorized means, like bicycles, animal traction or walk on foot The share of the households which does not expend in motorized transportation is concentrated between lower deciles of income 21

22 passager-kilometres MOBILITY RELATED TO THE STANDARD OF LIVING IN FRANCE Total household mobility by transport mode and standard of living in 2008 Air Rail Urban Transport Rail Urban Transport Bus Private car Two-wheels Bike Walk Mobility (passenger.km) increases by threefold between D1 and D10 in France. In Brazil, GHG emissions for tourism transportation range at 3,2% of the total emissions of the country. There are expected to reach the OECD countries level in 2030, i.e. 7% of their total GHG emissions. 22

23 MAIN CONCLUSIONS LESSONS FOR FUTURE CONSUMPTION PATTERNS In both countries : Food and housing expenses represent still 50% or more of the total household budgets, regardless the level income. But the distribution of each category varies with a higher rise of the out-of-home food, the loan payments, etc. Income elasticity of private transport is one of the highest among the household types of expenses. Per capita mobility in Brazil is 30% lower than in France. An increase of car ownership in Brazil to the French ownership levels or a high development of transportation for tourism would lead to a high energy demand. For many Brazilian households, housing needs are not satisfied. Electrical devices ownership has a large potential of increase. 23

24 MAIN CONCLUSIONS LESSONS FOR FUTURE CONSUMPTION PATTERNS GDP per capita is expected to increase by a factor 2 for France and 3.5 for Brazil up to The household expenditure may follow the same trend. What would be the structure of this economic growth and the household expenditure profile in both countries up to 2050? What shifts in consumption patterns are necessary towards a low carbon footprint of households? Climate policies targeted to household consumption patterns are required. 24

25 OBRIGADA! Claude COHEN Carine BARBIER