EUROPEAN INTEGRATION a new analytical perspective?
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1 EUROPEAN INTEGRATION a new analytical perspective? Jacques PELKMANS WRR ( The Hague), College of Europe (Bruges) & CEPS (Brussels) Address GTAP Conference, 14 June 2003, The Hague
2 . EUROPEAN INTEGRATION, a new analytical perspective? does the Eur. Constitution matter? and do the econ.s. of subsidiarity? macro design flaws; cost & benefits EMU making the EU a better regulator empirical analysis please internal market, economic impact & research wish list EU customs union plus CAP
3 CUSTOMS UNION plus CAP EU: the major instance of regionalism impact EU-Turkey CU enlargement no.3 no.4 no. 5 subsequent enlargement good neighbours regionalism (Russia, Ukraine, Euro-MEDs) me-too & you-too regionalism with EU ( South Africa, Mexico, MERCOSUR, AFTA, Gulf, etc.) the 3 reforms of the CAP
4 . UNDERSTANDING THE INTERNAL MARKET def: area without frontiers; freedoms ensured customs union common policies or activities free movements - goods - services - capital - persons mutual recognition common policies - trade - agriculture - competition - transport right of establishment approximation of economic regulation & indirect taxation selected other key principles: non-discrimination; open market with free competition
5 IM: impact & welfare analysis Cecchini (1988) and Monti (1996/7) ex ante and ex post studies eye-openers to empiricists? Ex. Allen, Gasiorek & Smith (1998) state of the art? robust? (modelling, data, too early and trade vs. competition effects) limited (only manufacturing; trade costs )
6 IM: impact & welfare analysis (II) IM effects wider and deeper market access effect, not-networked services, IPRs? also (e.g.) standards & conformity; financial market integration network industries (7X) benefits competition policy (wider, deeper) labour, the big omission the puzzle of home bias, or, how integrated is the IM?
7 MAKING THE EU A BETTER REGULATOR (I) REGULATION, the core business of the EU Paucity of empirical analysis, (network industries, beginning) Heavenly gains? (Doorn / EP 3% plus of GNP) Nobody knows. EU regulation held in check (automaticity) principle of conferral (no autonomous EU regulatory power, IM or specific provisions) [ little understood, not observable] proportionality, both EU and MS
8 MAKING THE EU A BETTER REGULATOR (II) Trend reduction of costs EU regulation shifts from old- approach to new/ global approach (flexible, light, reference to standards, room for innovation & quality, pro-competitive) mutual recognition NOTE: no EU rules at all! practically no economic analysis available regulatory impact assessment 12 years after Maastricht benchmark (?): OMB reports (US) tough supervision MS on new barriers 700 MS laws a year (!) benefits of pre-emption unknown
9 THE DESIGN OF EMU MONETARY UNION * the euro * price stability * ECB * entry conditions * budgetary disciplines ECONOMIC UNION wide & deep integration incentives supply side/ coordination MS level IM approx./reg.l. cohesion Cardiff common policies - policy Luxembourg freedoms - transfers Lisbon processes mutual recognition automatic stabilizers
10 MAJOR DESIGN FLAWS EMU What link between E & M? What is economic union? MS (E) do not overlap (M) better functioning E? centralisation policy competition (tight coord.) (restricting autonomy unduly) Weakness of budgetary disciplines credibility of sanctions impose/ counterproductive not impose, Pact toothless budgetary ( a-political) constitution? NO federal budget, NO
11 EMU queries EMU benefits too low? induced dynamic effects? super boost to trade (Rose) cost of M when E is suboptimally designed? true costs of a wobbly Pact? trivial at first? credibility?
12 EUROPE S CONVENTION i. revelation of preferences ii. four results EU of values and of action values, how far does the Union go? EU moves (far) beyond the economic domain institutional provisions closer to citizen effectiveness / leadership status quo in economic & social issues
13 SUBSIDIARITY Can economists operationalize a test? i. politicians in Convention deaf ii. how operational is the current literature? iii. redistribution national, hence, CAP reform and return hence, cohesion reform and curtail iv. centralisation where scale / scope [foreign policy / defence] can be pointless
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