A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy

Transcription

1 A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos Moscow, 19 Oct. Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 1 / 21

2 Outline 1 Motivation 2 What we do 3 What we find 4 Conclusion Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 2 / 21

3 Motivation Motivation Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 3 / 21

4 Addressing global LT issues Motivation A global level playing field? Who will be the major players in the long run? How will the global economy and trade flows be impacted? Future of the world economy to be shaped by demography, savings and investment, energy efficiency, technology A major issue for policy makers A major issue for global modeling Short term GDP forecasts available Lack of a clearly documented, validated, and theoretically funded picture of the world economy covering large # of countries, regions and sectors Reliable projected values for macro variables required Model of the global economy integrating macro variables and addressing interdependencies: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model Pioneering studies: Van der Mensbrugghe (2005), Walmsley (2006), Gouel & Laborde (2007), Burniaux & Chateau (2010) Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 4 / 21

5 What we do What we do Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 5 / 21

6 What we do GDP-driven CGE Combine two different modeling frameworks, MaGE and an updated version of MIRAGE MaGE (Fouré, Bénassy, Fontagné, 2010 & 2012): Theoretical long run growth model embodying energy, energy efficiency, technical progress, demography and capital accumulation Country level, to which constraints regarding the balance of world financial flows are imposed Estimated econometrically country by country or by country groups MIRAGE (Bchir et al, 2002; Decreux & Valin, 2007): dynamic multi-country CGE sectoral model of the world economy Time horizon projections with a one year step Initialize projections in 2013 & rely on IMF short-term forecasts between 2010 and 2012 Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 6 / 21

7 What we do Our value added Detailed macro-modeling of growth in MaGE: Female participation Education catch up (5 years bin) Productivity catch up Detailed demography, educational attainment, life cycle Endogenous savings rate Current account determination recovered from savings and international capital mobility 147 countries; tentative horizon 2100 Combination of growth model with CGE Dynamic model of the global economy: regions and sectors New nesting in MIRAGE (MIRAGE-e), in line with Burniaux & Truong (2002) or Bouët, Dimaranan & Valin (2010) TFP in agriculture (DEA) Closure rules of CGE Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 7 / 21

8 What we find What we find Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 8 / 21

9 What we find Outline of results Factors shaping world economy 2050 Projected growth with MaGE World consumption shares (sector share in world consumption) Sectoral outputs (region share in world production) Specialization (sector share in region export) Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 9 / 21

10 Labour force (million) What we find 900 data females proj males proj 800 SSA IND 700 CHN EU27 USA 100 BRA RUS JPN USA CHN IND RUS JPN BRA EU27 SSA Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 10 / 21

11 What we find Capital intensity (thousands 2005 USD per cap.) data proj JPN EU27 USA 200 RUS CHN 100 BRA IND SSA USA CHN IND RUS JPN BRA EU27 SSA Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 11 / 21

12 What we find Human capital (% 20-24y with tert. educ.) 80% 70% data projec ons JPN USA RUS 60% 50% EU27 40% 30% BRA 20% CHN IND 10% SSA 0% USA CHN IND RUS JPN BRA EU27 SSA Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 12 / 21

13 GDP growth What we find 12% data projec ons 10% 8% 6% SSA 4% IND RUS CHN 2% 0% BRA USA EU27 JPN USA CHN IND RUS JPN BRA EU27 SSA Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 13 / 21

14 World consumption shares What we find 0.14 FinInsBus 0.12 AnimAgr CarsTrucks 0.1 Coal Electronic Ely FinInsBus 0.08 Food Gas Food Machinery Metals 0.06 Oil OthAgr OtherManuf OthManuf Pcoal Transport Textile Veg Agri Primary Textile TransEquip Transport VegAgr Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 14 / 21

15 What we find Sectoral outputs: shares in Food production China 0.2 EU USA 0.1 Japan RoLA 0.05 ASEAN India Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 15 / 21

16 What we find Sectoral outputs: shares in Automotive production EU China USA Japan KorTai Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 16 / 21

17 Specialization of China What we find 0.35 Electronic Machinery 0.15 Textile Metals Transport Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 17 / 21

18 Specialization of USA What we find OtherManuf 0.15 Machinery VegAgr Gas FinInsBus Electronic AnimAgr Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 18 / 21

19 Conclusion Conclusion Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 19 / 21

20 Conclusion Tentative baseline of world economy, LT horizon Combine growth model (MaGE) with CGE (MIRAGE-e) Document & disseminate Work in progress Implications for economic policy: Increasing divergence in production and consumption locations Dramatic changes in specialization of large players concerns Challenging for daily business of the WTO Future patterns of global economy point to necessary renewal of multilateral architecture Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 20 / 21

21 Conclusion Thank you Fontagné - Fouré - Ramos () A Long-Term Path of the Global Economy Moscow, 19 Oct. 21 / 21