The Impact of Bank Expansion on Self-Employed Business Owners: Evidence from US State
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1 The Impact of Bank Expansion on Self-Employed Business Owners: Evidence from US State Anindo Sarker Bulent Unel Louisiana State University May 2017 Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
2 Introduction Motivation Entrepreneurship is a determinant of economic growth Why do few people choose to become entrepreneurs? Entrepreneurship is risky (Hall & Woodward, 2010) Unclear economic rewards (Moskowitz & Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002) Are entrepreneurs different from traditional workers? Preferences Towards Risk: Levine & Rubinstein (2017) Tastes Non-Pecuniary Rewards: Hurst & Pugsley (2017) How do economic conditions affect rates of entrepreneurship? Family Background: Hout and Rosen (1999) Policy: Gentry and Hubbard (2000), Djankov et al. (2002) Credit: Evans and Jovanivic (1989), Hurst & Lusardi (2004) Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
3 Introduction Research Question and What We Did What is the impact of a change in credit access on entrepreneurship? Look at an individual s propensity to engage in self employment. Self-employed are 80% of U.S. small business. Differentiate between incorporated and unincorporated. Relies on increases in credit access from state by state U.S. bank deregulation occurring from s. Difference-in-Differences framework. Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
4 Introduction Bank Branch Deregulation Financial Deregulation Most of 20th century, severe limits placed on expansion of commercial banks in the U.S. Bank Holding Act of From 1970 to 1994 individual states began to change laws allowing bank expansion. First Within state-lines (Intrastate Branching) Then Across state-lines (Interstate Banking) National Law IBBEA (1994). Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
5 Introduction Bank Branch Deregulation Financial Deregulation Intrastate Branching Mergers and Acquisitions De Novo Branching. Increased financial integration and consolidation Interstate Banking Mergers and Acquisitions Entry into new market De Novo Interstate Branching heavily regulated at state level. Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
6 Introduction Literature Review Bank Branching Deregulation: Krozner & Strahan (1999), Strahan (2003) Credit Market Effects: Dick & Lehnert (2010), Sun& Yannelis (2016) Credit Market Effects on Mortgages: Tewari (2014), Favara & Imbs (2015) Branching and Entrepreneurship: Black and Strahan (2002) Kerr and Nanda (2009) and (2010) Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
7 Data Data Sources Sources of Data Self Employed Workers and Entrepreneurial Choice Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Groups (CPS-ORG, ). Supplementary files from Unicorn Corporation. We can identify incorporated self-employed consistently over this period Nationally representative sample Households are interviewed over two years Banking Deregulations Amel (2008) Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
8 Data Data Sources Figure 1. Total Number of States Deregulations Implemented Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
9 Data Data Sources Construction of Data Stock of Business Owners: { 1 if i is a business owner E ist = 0 otherwise Entry: Exit: E + ist = { 0 if Eist 1 = 0, E ist = 0 1 if E ist 1 = 0, E ist = 1, E ist = { 0 if Eist 1 = 1, E ist = 1 1 if E ist 1 = 1, E ist = 0 Our outcome variable Y ist = {E + ist, E ist }. Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
10 Data Descriptive Statistics Figure 2. Share of Self-employed, Incorporated and Unincorporated Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
11 Data Descriptive Statistics Table 1.A. Summary Statistics on Self-employed and Wage Workers, Self-employed Salary All Incorporated Unincorporated Workers Female (%) (45.8) (42.2) (47.0) (49.9) Age (7.8) (7.4) (7.9) (8.2) White (%) (26.8) (25.7) (27.3) (35.3) Some College (%) (49.3) (45.4) (49.9) (49.9) Hours Worked (17.5) (15.7) (18.1) (11.3) Manufacturing (%) (36.0) (33.1) (37.1) (42.7) Service (%) (46.4) (44.4) (47.1) (45.8) Sample Size 147,903 43, , ,624 Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
12 Data Descriptive Statistics Table 1.B. Entrepreneurial Activity at Individual-Owner Level, Entry Rates (%) Exit Rate (%) Switching Incorp. Unincorp. Incorp. Unincorp. Rate (%) All Sample (11.8) (15.6) (47.1) (44.0) (26.0) Female (9.2) (13.8) (48.8) (45.3) (21.9) White (12.1) (15.9) (46.9) (43.5) (25.8) Some College (13.3) (15.8) (46.9) (45.0) (28.7) Manufacturing (7.2) (6.8) (46.5) (49.5) (28.3) Service (12.2) (15.8) (47.5) (45.2) (27.2) Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
13 Data Descriptive Statistics Empirical Methodology Let s denote state and t year, we estimate Y isjt = αintra st + βinter st + γx ist + η s + η j + η t + η s t + η j t + ε st, (1) Y isjt : entry/exit into entrepreneurship Intra st : dummy determines if intrastate banking deregulation is in effect Inter st : dummy determines if interstate banking deregulation is in effect X ist : controls for age, education levels, gender, marital status η z : fixed effects η z t: state/industry specific time trends Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
14 Data Descriptive Statistics Empirical Methodology Let s denote state and t year, we estimate Y isjt = 15 τ= 8 α τ Intra τ st + 15 τ= 8 β τ Inter τ st + γx ist + η s + η j + η t + ε st. (2) Intra τ st: dummy for τ-th year before/after deregulation Inter τ st: dummy for τ-th year before/after deregulation Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
15 Main Results Table 2.A. Impact of Banking Deregulations on Incorporated Self-employed, Entry from Incorporated to Exit from incorporated Non-Business Unincorporated Non-Business Unincorporated Intra (0.0006) (0.0056) (0.0115) (0.0127) Inter (0.0009) (0.0057) (0.0137) (0.0153) Entrp t (0.0127) (0.1585) (0.3898) (0.3271) Observations 930,165 84,180 36,074 34,390 Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
16 Main Results Figure 3.a. Entry into the Incorporated from Wage Workers (Interstate) Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
17 Main Results Figure 2. Entry into the Incorporated from the Unincorporated (Interstate) Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
18 Main Results Figure 3.a. Exit to Wage Workers (Interstate) Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
19 Main Results Figure 2. Exit to the Unincorporated (Interstate) Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
20 Main Results Modifying DD-Model Let s denote state and t year, we estimate Y isjt = α 1 Intra {1,2} + α 2 Intra {3,4} + α 3 Intra {5+} + β 1 Inter {1,2} + β 2 Inter {3,4} + β 3 Inter {5+} + γx ist + η s + η j + η t + η s t + η j t + ε st, (3) Intra {1,2} : equals one for the first two years of the intrastate reform Intra {3,4} : equals one for the third and fourth years of the reform Intra {5+} : equals one for the fifth year after the reform or later Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
21 Main Results Table 2.B. Impact of Banking Deregulations on Incorporated Self-employed, Entry from Incorporated to Exit from Incorporated to Non-Business Unincorporated Non-Business Unincorporated Intra {1,2} (0.0006) (0.0059) (0.0133) (0.0141) Intra {3,4} (0.0005) (0.0064) (0.0128) (0.0181) Intra {5+} (0.0008) (0.0070) (0.0166) (0.0214) Inter {1,2} (0.0007) (0.0060) (0.0133) (0.0150) Inter {3,4} (0.0007) (0.0079) (0.0162) (0.0226) Inter {5+} (0.0010) (0.0128) (0.0186) (0.0233) Observations 930,165 84,180 36,074 34,390 Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
22 Main Results Table 3.A. Impact of Bank Deregulations on Unincorporated Self-employed, Entry Exit Variable 1 2 Intra (0.0010) (0.0061) Inter (0.0007) (0.0110) Entrp t (0.0168) (0.1573) Observations 941,813 95,030 Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
23 Main Results Table 3.B. Impact of Bank Deregulations on Unincorporated Self-employed, Entry Exit Intra {1,2} (0.0010) (0.0078) Intra {3,4} (0.0013) (0.0076) Intra {5+} (0.0013) (0.0085) Inter {1,2} (0.0010) (0.0073) Inter {3,4} (0.0014) (0.0075) Inter {5+} (0.0020) (0.0095) Observations 941,813 95,030 Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
24 Heterogeneity Heterogeneity Do bank deregulations have the same impact on different groups? Young may face tougher credit constraints Asiedu et al. (2012): Low rate of approval rate for bank loans among minorities Tewari (2014): mortgage access increased for lower-middle income groups, young, and black households Buchak and Jorring (2016): branching reduces the gap in approval rate between white and blacks We explore heterogeneity by Gender, Race, and Age. Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
25 Heterogeneity Table 4 Impact of Bank Deregulations on Entrepreneurship, by Gender ( ) Incorporated Entry from Exit to Unincorporated Non-Bus. Uninc. Non-Bus. Uninc. Entry Exit A. Impact on Females Intra {1,2} Intra {3,4} Intra {5+} Inter {1,2} Inter {3,4} Inter {5+} B. Impact on Males Inter {1,2} Inter {3,4} Inter {5+} Inter {1,2} Inter {3,4} Inter {5+} Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
26 Heterogeneity Table 5. Impact of Bank Deregulations on Entrepreneurship, by Race ( ) Incorporated Entry from Exit to Unincorporated Non-Bus. Uninc. Non-Bus. Uninc. Entry Exit A. Impact on Whites Intra {1,2} Intra {3,4} Intra {5+} Inter {1,2} Inter {3,4} Inter {5+} B. Impact on Minorities Intra {1,2} Intra {3,4} Intra {5+} Inter {1,2} Inter {3,4} Inter {5+} Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
27 Heterogeneity Table 6. Impact of Bank Deregulations on Entrepreneurship by Age ( ) Incorporated Entry from Exit to Unincorporated Non-Bus. Uninc. Non-Bus. Uninc. Entry Exit A. Impact on Individuals Above Age 40 Intra {1,2} Intra {3,4} Intra {5+} Inter {1,2} Inter {3,4} Inter {5+} B. Impact on Individuals Below Age 40 Intra {1,2} Intra {3,4} Intra {5+} Inter {1,2} Inter {3,4} Inter {5+} Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
28 Heterogeneity Conclusion Does an increases in credit access encourage entrepreneurship? Does branching deregulation increase entrepreneurship? Branch deregulation increases activity of incorporated firms Effects strongest among groups likely to face binding credit constraints However, no effect on the entry/exit unincorporated self-employment, the largest group of small businesses. Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
29 Appendix Data Appendix Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
30 Appendix Data Table 1 : Year of Branching Deregulation State Intrastate Branching Intrastate M&A Interstate Banking Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas Not deregulated California Colorado Not deregulated Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Not deregulated Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Not deregulated Not deregulated 1991 Kansas Kentucky Not deregulated Louisiana Maine Source: Amel (2008) Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
31 Appendix Data Table 1 : Year of Branching Deregulation State Intrastate Branching Intrastate M&A Interstate Banking Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Not deregulated Mississippi Missouri Montana Not deregulated Nebraska Not deregulated Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey Not deregulated New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Not deregulated Ohio Source: Amel (2008) Sarker & Unel Credit Access and Entrepreneurship May / 31
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