September Economics Update. Economic and housing market. Bradford Property Forum. Created by:
|
|
- Michael Stewart
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 September 2014 Economics Update Economic and housing market Bradford Property Forum Created by:
2 Bank Rate timing of first increase Q or Q1 2015? The debate over the timing of the first increase to Bank Rate appears to have narrowed to mainly two options; Q (likely November) or Q (likely February) with those months coinciding with the Bank s Quarterly Inflation Report publications. Of 43 forecasts to Bloomberg, 12 economists expect Bank Rate to have increased to 0.75% by the end of A total of 37 expected Bank Rate to have increased to at least 0.75% by the end of the first quarter of LIBOR pricing suggests the first rate hike will occur in the first quarter of 2014, SONIA pricing suggests the second quarter of
3 Evidence for a Q4 move Why move early? Proponents of an earlier move to increase interest rates believe that, in theory, it will allow the Bank of England to stick to already its stated aim of slow and gradual rises in Bank Rate by reducing the ability for inflationary pressures to build. The labour market has been far stronger than the Bank expected a year ago when announcing its forward guidance. Using the unemployment rate as a measure of slack in the economy would suggest that spare capacity has been used up quickly and the level of spare capacity remaining has diminished substantially. Given the time lags in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, it would therefore be more prudent to move to increase rates soon. Moving to increase rates will also send a signal to consumers that they need to prepare their household finances for an increase in borrowing costs. 3
4 Evidence for a Q1 move (or later?) Why wait? There are still a number of reasons to suggest that the Bank of England can delay any increase into the first quarter of 2015 and perhaps even later. The MPC has focused specifically on wage growth in recent statements as an indicator that sufficient slack still remains in the economy. Data for June 2014 showed wages growing at an annual rate of just 0.6%, well below the rate of inflation which stood at 1.9% in the same month. Despite stating that the Bank would not be afraid to act on interest rates before wage growth showed up in official data, a majority of the MPC indicated that they were comfortable to wait for further evidence of a pickup in wages. Not only do wages have implications for measuring the degree of slack in the economy, below inflation wage growth indicates that household finances will still be getting squeezed. Increasing interest rates, and therefore the cost of servicing debt repayments, could push highly indebted household over the edge. Concerns remain that British households are still too highly leveraged. External risks also remain significant. From an economic point of view, weakness in Europe continues and will likely weigh on UK economic activity for some time to come. Geopolitical risk also carries the potential to destabilise financial markets and entering a rate hiking cycle at this point carries risk. The UK general election in May does not factor into the decision to hike rates or not in our opinion. The Bank of England has strongly asserted its independence and would be unlikely to make a decision based on its potential impact on the political cycle. 4
5 Bank Rate new normal rate What is the new normal or neutral rate? Earlier this year MPC members began to suggest that the new normal for Bank Rate (at least in the medium term) was likely to be substantially below the 5% average witnessed before the financial crisis. Initially this was suggested to be 3%, more recent comments from Mark Carney have lowered this even further to a range of 2.5-3%. The theory behind the new normal rate settling lower than the historical average depends on the outlook for lending spreads. Lenders have maintained wide spreads between the policy rate and actual lending rates as they rebalance balance sheets and have to cover the cost of holding greater amounts of capital and liquidity. These requirements are unlikely to ease and there is therefore an assumption that spreads will remain at current levels; a lower policy rate than pre-crisis will result in a similar lending rate. Market pricing is also broadly in line with these suggestions. LIBOR pricing suggests a rate at the end of 2019 of 2.75%, SONIA of 2.25%, while implied forward rates show a two year swap at 2.75% and a five year swap at 3% - it is however hard to imagine a five year swap rate having no spread over Bank Rate, suggesting that swap rates will likely be higher than current market pricing suggests. 5
6 Housing market - headlines Prices House prices have continued their year on year gains and there is little evidence to date that this pace is slowing, despite RICS surveys suggesting this would be the case. As at the end of July, prices were up by around 10-11% compared with 12 months earlier, depending on which measure is used. Increases have primarily been driven by London and the South East with London up by around 19% over the past year in contrast to the North East that has seen an annual price change of just 2%. Activity Land Registry transactional data released to date only covers the first five months of In that period, almost 340,000 transactions were recorded an increase of over 30% on the first five months of Recent RICS surveys point towards a slowing of demand in the market (and even a fall in July) compared with an increase in the number of new properties coming to market. Surveyors are therefore less optimistic on the prospect for increased sales volumes than they were at the end of 2013 although still expect an upward trend. 6
7 Housing market London and the South East Analysis in the regional breakdowns is based on Land Registry data to allow for consistency between the price and transaction data. House prices in London and the South East have seen the strongest annual increase of all regions, up by 19% and 10% respectively. Sales volumes in London have however been on a downward trend which appears to be more than just a seasonal pattern. Volumes have been falling consistently since the start of 2014 while other regions have seen a general upward trend. Taking evidence from RICS surveys, this is likely to be a result of falling demand rather than a lack of available property. 7
8 Housing market rest of the UK The housing market across the rest of the UK has not experienced price growth as rapid as that witnessed in London. As the following page shows, average property prices in London have now surpassed their post recession low point by more than 50% and are also more than 30% above their pre-recession peak. All other regions are now above their post recession low points ranging from an increase of 4.5% in Yorkshire and Humberside to 26.7% in the South East. However, only London (30.8%) and the South East have surpassed their pre-recession peaks. The rest of the UK range from -0.1% in the East of England to -21.7% in the North East. Clearly London, and to some extent the South East, have a far stronger housing market than the rest of the UK. Evidence from the RICS surveys suggest that this position may change soon as surveyors in London become less optimistic about the outlook for prices over the rest of the year. Transactions have increased across all regions when comparing the first five months of 2014 with the same period last year. Increases in sales volume range from 23.6% in London to 34.1% in the East Midlands. 8
9 Housing market the rest of the UK 9
10 Mortgage market residential Prime residential Gross lending in the first seven months of 2014 totaled 117bn a 27% increase on the same period in Over the same seven month period net lending in 2014 reached 14bn, a substantial 270% increase on With macroprudential tools (discussed in more detail later) looking to target specific measures such as LTI, the following page includes graphs showing lending for house purchase broken down by a number of measures. Lending at or above 90% LTV has increased to c.20% of lending from a post-recession low of 9% as lenders re-enter riskier markets. Although this is still below the pre-recession high of 34% when loans over 95% LTV accounted for around 8% of the market. Similarly lending at higher LTIs has increased as prices have increased whilst wage growth has remained stagnant. Lending in the 4-5x income multiple category has reached a record high of around 22% of lending, well above its pre-recession peak of c.16%. Mortgage terms have also been increasing in length. The proportion of mortgages for house purchase taken out for a term of greater than 30 years has reached a record high of 20%. The Help to Buy schemes continue to support the market with the equity loan scheme having recorded 29,000 completions and the mortgage guarantee 18,500 as at the end of June. The schemes have arguably helped exactly the purchasers the government set out to target. The average price of a property purchased was 188,000 despite the 600,000 limit. Only 6% of purchases have taken place in London and a further 15% in the South East. Additionally, 82% of users of the scheme have been first time buyers. 10
11 Mortgage market residential 11
12 Mortgage market buy to let Buy to let lending continues to recover on both a value and volume measures. Data shows that in the second quarter of ,000 BTL mortgages were advanced at a value of 6.3bn. This was an increase of 22% in volume terms from a year earlier and 31% in value. This remains some distance below the peak achieved in the second quarter of 2007 when 93,000 BTL mortgages were advanced at a value of 12.7bn. Arrears and possessions on BTL mortgages also continue to improve with both measures now at postrecession lows. Arrears rates on BTL properties are currently around half the rate of owner-occupied properties. 12
13 Mortgage market macroprudential policy Further policy on the horizon? The BoE implemented its first attempts at macroprudential policy by capping lenders to 15% of their new lending at loan-to-income ratios of 4.5 or greater and directing that an appropriate interest rate stress in assessing affordability would be an increase in Bank Rate of 3pp during the first five years of a loan. It is too early to tell whether this will have a fundamental impact on the mortgage market. The directive has not yet been enforced but the FPC expected it to be around 12 months before lending at an LTI of 4.5x would start to reach the cap. Some lenders such as LBG pre-empted this move by introducing their own LTI caps but stated that these would affect a relatively small proportion of their businesses. Recent headlines have focused on the increase in the proportion of mortgage being taken over a longer term than the traditional 25 years. As extending the term of a mortgage is another way to increase the amount one can borrow, and exposes the borrower to greater sensitivity to interest rate changes, the Bank of England could look to introduce a measure similar to the LTI cap. As previously seen, the proportion of mortgages for house purchase with a term over 30 years has now reached 20% for the first time. 13
14 Summary Key assumptions Pace of economic growth to increase this year before moderating again in Business investment to pick up and replace consumer spending as a source of growth. Productivity to improve as a result of investment decisions. Labour market improvement to continue but at a slower pace than experienced in the last 12 months due to productivity gains, self-employment, part time employment etc. Inflation to remain close to target and household expectations for future inflation to remain grounded. Earnings growth from 2014 onwards to exceed inflation although some of this benefit in future years to be eroded by increasing debt repayments. Interest rates to begin to increase early in 2015 ending the year at 1% but only reaching just over 2% by House price inflation to slow this year and settle at around 5% per annum for remainder of forecast. Risks Sterling strength and deflation from Europe keep rates lower for longer. Scottish independence causing political and financial market turmoil. Overzealous regulation from FPC/PRA in light of housing bubble risks. Interest rates increased too early and/or too quickly causing arrears/defaults to increase. 14
15 appendices Created by:
16 economic scenario Variable Bank Rate (%) GDP (%) CPI Inflation (%) ILO Unemployment (%) Average Earnings (%) House Price Inflation (%) Gross lending ( bn) Net lending ( bn)
RICS Economic Research
RICS Economic Research / February 7 th 2014 Michael Hanley Economist www.rics.org/economics The Outlook for the Construction Sector Growth of 4% expected over 2014 Private housing and infrastructure to
More informationMonetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 1 November 2017
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 1 November 2017 Publication date: 2 November 2017 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending
More informationMINUTES OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 4 AND 5 NOVEMBER 2009
Publication date: 18 November 2009 MINUTES OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 4 AND 5 NOVEMBER 2009 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on 4 and 5 November 2009. They
More informationTable 1: Arithmetic contributions to June 2016 CPl inflation relative to the pre-crisis average
BANK OF ENGLAND Mark Carney Governor The Rt Hon Philip Hammond Chancellor of the Exchequer HM Treasury 1 Horse Guards Road London SW1A2HQ 4 August 2016 On 19 July, the Office for National Statistics published
More informationJuly UK Economic Outlook. UK house prices bubble or no bubble? The UK s standing in the world.
July 2014 UK Economic Outlook UK house prices bubble or no bubble? The UK s standing in the world www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents Highlights and key messages 03 1 Summary 04 2 UK economic prospects 07
More informationINFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 10 th May Opening Remarks by the Governor
INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 10 th May 2018 Opening Remarks by the Governor Three months ago, the MPC said that an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the next few years would be appropriate
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators UK
Main Economic & Financial Indicators UK 5 AUGUST 2014 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44(0)2075771591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of TokyoMitsubishi UFJ,
More informationThe reasons why inflation has moved away from the target and the outlook for inflation.
BANK OF ENGLAND Mark Carney Governor The Rt Hon George Osborne Chancellor of the Exchequer HM Treasury 1 Horse Guards Road London SW1A2HQ 12 May 2016 On 12 April, the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
More informationAsda Income Tracker. Report: December 2015 Released: January Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd
Asda Income Tracker Report: December 2015 Released: January 2016 M a k i n g B u s i n e s s S e n s e Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t 020 7324 2850
More informationTable 1: Arithmetic contributions to September 2015 CPI inflation relative to the pre-crisis Percentage points average.
Mark Carney Governor The Rt Hon George Osborne Chancellor of the Exchequer HM Treasury 1 Horse Guards Road London SW1A2HQ 5 November 2015 f In August I wrote a third letter to you when CPI inflation remained
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains
More informationWhat is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment
What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment Paris, 3 rd September 2009 11h00 Paris time Jorgen Elmeskov Acting Head of Economics Department www.oecd.org/oecdeconomicoutlook 1.
More informationLegal services sector forecasts
www.lawsociety.org.uk Legal services sector forecasts 2017-2025 August 2018 Legal services sector forecasts 2017-2025 2 The Law Society of England and Wales August 2018 CONTENTS SUMMARY OF FORECASTS 4
More informationInflation Report. November 2017
Inflation Report November 7 On November 7, the series net debt to profit in Chart E on page was corrected. The corrected series is around percentage points higher on average than the previous incorrect
More informationNovember UK Economic Outlook. How robust is the UK consumer recovery? Getting the balance right in the UK regions.
November 2014 UK Economic Outlook How robust is the UK consumer recovery? Getting the balance right in the UK regions www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents Highlights and key messages 3 1. Summary 4 2. UK economic
More informationPOST-ELECTION ECONOMIC UPDATE. Public
POST-ELECTION ECONOMIC UPDATE Created by: Andrew McPhillips Public THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT IS LESS POSITIVE THAN SIX MONTHS AGO Growth has slowed in the major economies of China and the US. The Eurozone
More informationMonetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 13 December 2017
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 13 December 2017 Publication date: 14 December 2017 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting
More informationBCC UK Economic Forecast Q4 2015
BCC UK Economic Forecast Q4 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and
More informationEconomic ProjEctions for
Economic Projections for 2016-2018 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2016-2018 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 Economic growth is expected to ease Following three years of strong expansion, the Bank s latest
More informationMINUTES OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 7 AND 8 OCTOBER 2009
Publication date: 21 October 2009 MINUTES OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 7 AND 8 OCTOBER 2009 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on 7 and 8 October 2009. They
More informationRelease Date : 26 April Economic update - March Key data highlights:
Release Date : 26 April Economic update - ch Key data highlights:. The headline figures in ch showed positive developments across key economic fundamentals, pointing to normalising economic conditions.
More informationINFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 8 th February Opening Remarks by the Governor
INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 8 th February 2018 Opening Remarks by the Governor This has been a notable week for anniversaries. On Monday, the nation celebrated the centenary of women gaining
More informationMortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics: 2018 Q3
Press Office Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH T 71 4411 F 71 54 press@bankofengland.co.uk www.bankofengland.co.uk Press Office 12 Endeavour Square London E 1JN T 66 3232 pressoffice@fca.org.uk www.fca.org.uk
More informationEuropean Investment Bulletin
European Investment Bulletin Spring 2009 Prime yield decompression per sector (yoy) Rents in decline in line with business sentiment 200 CBD offices Warehouses Shopping Centres European average prime office
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist.
January 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Another Fed Rate Hike in December, Inflation Remains
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
October 2014 Solid U.S. Economic Data Belie Market Turmoil Executive Summary September payroll job growth was above consensus with 248,000 jobs added over the month. September private-sector employment
More informationOUTLOOK THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF THE WA ECONOMY ABOUT OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK July 2017 I Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia (Inc) THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF THE WA ECONOMY ABOUT OUTLOOK Outlook is CCIWA s biannual analysis of the Western Australian economy.
More informationYou spoke with a researcher at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, who made the following comments:
Investment Banking / Hedge Fund / Equity Research Case Study: Projecting Shawbrook s Financial Statements, Valuing the Company, and Making Recommendations As part of your evaluation process for Shawbrook,
More informationEconomic Projections :1
Economic Projections 2017-2020 2018:1 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The Central Bank s latest economic projections foresee economic growth over the coming three years to
More informationUK Economic Outlook July 2017
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents 1 2 3 4 Global outlook UK economic trends and prospects UK housing market outlook Nowcasting current GDP growth PwC 2 Global growth in 2017 should be slightly stronger
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT 24 January 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous meeting of
More informationGauging Current Conditions:
Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation Vol. 2 2005 The gauges below indicate the economic outlook for the current year and for 2006 for factors that typically
More informationEditor: Thomas Nilsson. The Week Ahead Key Events 31 Jul 6 Aug, 2017
Editor: Thomas Nilsson The Week Ahead Key Events 31 Jul 6 Aug, 2017 European Sovereign Rating Reviews Recent rating reviews Friday, 21 July 2017 Agency previous new action Greece S&P B- / Stable B- /
More informationUK Economic Outlook July 2013
www.pwc.co.uk UK Economic Outlook July 213 Feature articles: Is the UK housing market on the road to recovery? The trillion pound question are gilts the next bubble to burst? PwC firms help organisations
More informationRising Rates Environment - One Lenders Perspective
Rising Rates Environment - One Lenders Perspective PETER HILL CHIEF EXECUTIVE LEEDS BUILDING SOCIETY London Mortgages Forum 3 rd December 2014 What Will The Market Do? It will fluctuate, young man, it
More informationThe reasons why inflation has moved away from the target, and the outlook for inflation.
BANK OF ENGLAND Mark Carney Governor The Rt Hon Philip Hammond Chancellor of the Exchequer HM Treasury 1 Horse Guards Road London SW1A2HQ 8 February 2018 On 12 December, the Office for National Statistics
More informationAsda Income Tracker. Report: March 2012 Released: April Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd
Asda Income Tracker Report: March 2012 Released: April 2012 M a k i n g B u s i n e s s S e n s e Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t 020 7324 2850 w
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationWhat is Monetary Policy?
What is Monetary Policy? Monetary stability means stable prices and confidence in the currency. Stable prices are defined by the Government's inflation target, which the Bank seeks to meet through the
More informationInflation Report. May 2018
Inflation Report May 8 On May 8, the number for national house price inflation in 8 Q on page 6 was corrected to.6% from.%. Inflation Report May 8 In order to maintain price stability, the Government has
More informationUS Economy Update May 2014
US Economy Update May 2014 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Annalisa Usardi Economist, US & LATAM Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo
More informationLABOUR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA AND THE UNITED STATES SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
Box 7 LABOUR MARKET IN THE EURO AREA AND THE UNITED STATES SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS This box provides an overview of differences in adjustments in the and the since the beginning
More informationRic Battellino: Recent financial developments
Ric Battellino: Recent financial developments Address by Mr Ric Battellino, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, at the Annual Stockbrokers Conference, Sydney, 26 May 2011. * * * Introduction
More informationMonetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 10 May 2017
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 10 May 2017 Publication date: 11 May 2017 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on
More informationNationwide Building Society. Interim Management Statement Q1 2017/18
Nationwide Building Society Interim Management Statement Q1 2017/18 11 August 2017 Nationwide Building Society today publishes its Interim Management Statement covering the period from 5 April 2017 to
More informationProducts. House Purchase. Effective date 12 August 2016
Accord Mortgages Products Effective date 12 August 2016 This is an overview of our Buy To Let product range. For more detailed product information please check the Product Finder and click on the 'Details'
More informationInflation Report. August 2007
Inflation Report August 7 BANK OF ENGLAND Inflation Report August 7 In order to maintain price stability, the Government has set the Bank s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) a target for the annual inflation
More information2014 Annual Review & Outlook
2014 Annual Review & Outlook As we enter 2014, the current economic expansion is 4.5 years in duration, roughly the average life of U.S. economic expansions. There is every reason to believe it will continue,
More informationUK Economic Outlook. March The impact of lower oil prices on the UK economy
March 2015 UK Economic Outlook The impact of lower oil prices on the UK economy New job creation in the UK: which regions will benefit most from the digital revolution? www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents
More informationSeptember Update. 1.0 Selected Equity Market Indices
September Update Global Factors North Korea s latest missile tests meant that tensions in the Korean peninsula remained elevated during September. In fact, Donald Trump s maiden address of the UN s General
More informationfile:///c:/users/cathy/appdata/local/microsoft/windows/temporary Int...
1 of 5 9/25/17, 8:57 AM A Publication of the National Association of Manufacturers September 25, 2017 As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to not raise short-term interest rates at its September 19 20
More information8 June 2017 KEY POINTS
8 June 2017 MARKET ANALYTICS AND SCENARIO FORECASTING UNIT JOHN LOOS: HOUSEHOLD AND PROPERTY SECTOR STRATEGIST 087-328 0151 john.loos@fnb.co.za LIZE ERASMUS: STATISTICIAN 087-335 6664 lize.erasmus@fnb.co.za
More informationFinland falling further behind euro area growth
BANK OF FINLAND FORECAST Finland falling further behind euro area growth 30 JUN 2015 2:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 3/2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economic growth in Finland has been slow for a prolonged period,
More informationGrant Spencer: Update on the New Zealand housing market
Grant Spencer: Update on the New Zealand housing market Speech by Mr Grant Spencer, Deputy Governor and Head of Financial Stability of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, to Admirals Breakfast Club, Auckland,
More informationSME Monitor Q aldermore.co.uk
SME Monitor Q1 2014 aldermore.co.uk aldermore.co.uk Contents Executive summary UK economic overview SME inflation index one year review SME cost inflation trends SME business confidence SME credit conditions
More informationQ SMALL BALANCE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT TRENDS REPORT BY ARBOR
YEAR-END 2018 Q2 2018 SMALL BALANCE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT TRENDS REPORT BY ARBOR SMALL BALANCE MARKET ENDS 2018 ON A HIGH NOTE Cap Rates Hold Constant as Market Readies for Potential Rate Hikes Benchmark
More informationProperty: a panacea for pension funds?
Property: a panacea for pension funds? Patrick Bone, Head of UK Property Research Traditionally, pension funds have invested in UK commercial property to derive the benefits of diversification from other
More informationOutlook and Market Review First Quarter 2016
Outlook and Market Review First Quarter 2016 The U.S. economy grew at a 0.8% annual rate in the first quarter according to thesecond estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. economic growth in
More informationQ UK BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MONITOR. Scotland Summary Report
Q4 27 UK BUSINESS CONFIDENCE MONITOR Scotland Summary Report CONTENTS Q4 27 KEY POINTS 1 FOREWORD ICAEW CHIEF ECONOMIST 2 MAIN FINDINGS 4 BUSINESS FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 4 TRENDS BY INDUSTRY 5 TRENDS ACROSS
More informationECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR HONG KONG IN 2016-17 Win Lin Chou, ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, Hong Kong I. The Current Trends Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Hong Kong increased 1.7 percent
More informationSlowing UK Wage Growth
Slowing UK Wage Growth David G. Blanchflower Department of Economics, Dartmouth College and University of Stirling and Stephen Machin Department of Economics, University College London and Centre for Economic
More informationCorporate and Household Sectors in Austria: Subdued Growth of Indebtedness
Corporate and Household Sectors in Austria: Subdued Growth of Indebtedness Stabilization of Corporate Sector Risk Indicators The Austrian Economy Slows Down Against the background of the renewed recession
More information4 Regional growth trends and prospects 1
4 Regional growth trends and prospects 1 Key points has consistently outperformed other UK regions for most of the past two decades in terms of economic growth, both before and after the global financial
More informationCOUNTERCYCLICAL CAPITAL BUFFER
} COUNTERCYCLICAL CAPITAL BUFFER 9 June 18 Pursuant to a decision of the Board of Directors of 7 June 18, the countercyclical buffer rate for credit exposures to the domestic private non-financial sector
More informationUS Economy Update. Key Insights. Macro Pulse. October 2015
US Economy Update October 2015 MACRO REPORT Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Andrea Brasili Senior Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Also contributing Riccardo
More informationMonthly Economic Review
Monthly Economic Review DECEMBER 2017 Based on November 2017 data releases Bedfordshire Chamber of Commerce Headlines UK GDP growth in Q3 unrevised as business investment and the UK s trade position weakens
More informationNew Zealand Economic Outlook. Miles Workman June 2017
New Zealand Economic Outlook Miles Workman June 17 1 Economic Outlook Overview The New Zealand economy is forecast to expand at a solid pace over the next five years With real GDP growth around 3% in 17:
More informationLETTER. economic. Slowdown in international trade: has interprovincial trade made up for it? DECEMBER bdc.ca
economic LETTER DECEMBER Slowdown in international trade: has interprovincial trade made up for it? Canada has always been a country open to the world, but it has become increasingly so over the years.
More informationUSD per GBP Real Yield This edition of EconForum examines corporate profits and their likely impact on future equity returns.
Corporate Profits UK Month in Charts 1 6200 FTSE 10 0 3.9 Breakeven Inflation 1.7 USD per GBP 6000 3.7 5800 3.5 1.6 5600 5400 3.3 5200 3.1 1.5 5000 2.9 4800 2.7 1.4 0.35 LIBOR Spread 1.8 Corporate Spread
More informationMID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 2014 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 2014 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 The Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the 2014 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) examines recent price developments and reviews key financial
More informationTable 1: Economic Growth Measures
US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning
More informationOUTLOOK FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY AND MONETARY POLICY
OUTLOOK FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY AND MONETARY POLICY MassDevelopment Conference Current Topics in Tax-Exempt Financing Boston, MA November 3, 2017 Mary A. Burke Senior Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
More informationEconomic Outlook, January 2015 January 9, Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Economic Outlook, January 2015 January 9, 2015 Jeffrey M. Lacker President Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Virginia Bankers Association and Virginia Chamber of Commerce 2015 Financial Forecast Richmond,
More informationRelease Date : 26 February Economic update - January Key data highlights:
Release Date : 26 February 218 Economic update - uary 218 Key data highlights:. While uary figures showed an increase in consumer confidence and improvement in wage growth, the underlying long-term picture
More information01/17. London Property Market Snapshot: January 2017
01/17 London Property Market Snapshot: January 2017 Global Macro overview With the exception of the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng indices, key global stock markets recorded gains in December. The strongest
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationNorth American Economic Outlook: Gradual Though Sustained Recovery
ECONOMICS I RESEARCH North American Economic Outlook: Gradual Though Sustained Recovery Presentation to the Canadian Association of Movers Paul Ferley (416) 974-7231 Assistant Chief Economist paul.ferley@rbc.com
More informationFinancial Stability Report 2012/2013
Financial Stability Report 2012/2013 Press Conference Presentation Miroslav Singer Governor Prague, 18 June 2013 Structure of presentation I. Initial state of real economy and financial sector and alternative
More informationMINUTES OF THE MONETARY COUNCIL MEETING 28 AUGUST 2012
MINUTES OF THE MONETARY COUNCIL MEETING 28 AUGUST 2012 Article 3 (1) of the MNB Act (Act LVIII of 2001 on the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, as amended) defines achieving and maintaining price stability as the primary
More informationUniversity of Strathclyde Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary: 37(3)
1 Brian Ashcroft, Economics Editor, Fraser of Allander Institute Recent GDP performance The latest Scottish GDP data for the third quarter of 2013 show that Scottish GDP rose by 0.7% in Scotland in the
More informationMixed Signals from the U.S. Economy
Craig P. Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Mixed Signals from the U.S. Economy January 15, 2019 Key takeaways» Increased U.S. market volatility and negative
More informationHousing market. Forecasts
Housing market Forecasts - 2018 Summer COUNTRYWIDE HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS 2018 COUNTRYWIDE HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS 2018 Forecasts Executive summary 2014 2015 2017 2018 It will be a bumpy time ahead,
More informationEconomic projections
Economic projections 2017-2020 December 2017 Outlook for the Maltese economy Economic projections 2017-2020 The pace of economic activity in Malta has picked up in 2017. The Central Bank s latest economic
More informationPaul Fisher: The economic outlook some remarks on monetary policy
Paul Fisher: The economic outlook some remarks on monetary policy Speech by Mr Paul Fisher, Executive Director for Markets of the Bank of England, to the Agency for Scotland, London, 23 May 2011. * * *
More informationBirmingham Update. April Economic Research & Policy Economy Directorate
Birmingham Update April 2018 Economic Research & Policy Economy Directorate Economic Dashboard 6.4% +217 Claimant Unemployed - Mar 2018 + 1.2bn +4.8% Economic Output GVA (Nominal) - 2016 63.6% -1,800 50.4%
More informationThe euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016
The euro area economy: an update Euro Challenge November 2016 Delegation of the European Union to the United States www.euro-challenge.org What this presentation will cover A. Update on the economic situation
More informationNationwide Building Society. Interim Management Statement Q3 2017/18
Nationwide Building Society Interim Management Statement Q3 /18 9 February 2018 Nationwide Building Society today publishes its Interim Management Statement covering the period from 5 April to 31 December
More informationRelease Date : 26 June Economic update - May Key data highlights:
Release Date : 26 June Economic update - Key data highlights:. The UK economy is growing at its slowest pace in more than five years, marked by weaker manufacturing and construction growth. Consumer-facing
More informationMonetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 21 March 2018
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 21 March 2018 Publication date: 22 March 2018 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending
More informationThe UK economic and fiscal outlook
The UK economic and fiscal outlook Report for StepChange Debt Charity Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Contents Executive summary 3 Global economic outlook 4 UK economic outlook 8 UK regional
More information20 June 2017 KEY POINTS
20 June 2017 FNB HOME LOANS: MARKET ANALYTICS AND SCENARIO FORECASTING UNIT JOHN LOOS: HOUSEHOLD AND PROPERTY SECTOR STRATEGIST 087-328 0151 John.loos@fnb.co.za THEO SWANEPOEL: PROPERTY MARKET ANALYST
More informationInflation Report. May 2008
Inflation Report May 8 BANK OF ENGLAND Inflation Report May 8 In order to maintain price stability, the Government has set the Bank s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) a target for the annual inflation
More informationWhere next for first-time buyers? By Bob Pannell, Economic Adviser, IMLA
Where next for first-time buyers? By Bob Pannell, Economic Adviser, IMLA Introduction The latest figures confirm that there were about 366,000 first-time buyers in the UK in 2017. This is a positive outcome,
More informationWilliam C Dudley: A bit better, but very far from best US economic outlook and the challenges facing the Federal Reserve
William C Dudley: A bit better, but very far from best US economic outlook and the challenges facing the Federal Reserve Remarks by Mr William C Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist
July 217 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Mekael Teshome Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Economist Executive Summary Job Growth Picked Back Up Again
More information2017 was a Banner Year Look for a More Normal 2018
Retirement Income Solutions Helping to grow and preserve your wealth 2017 was a Banner Year Look for a More Normal 2018 February 2018 Summary The U.S. stock market posted a strong 2017 with returns of
More informationEconomic forecasts. Summary. December 2014
December 2014 Summary The US economy has maintained momentum through the third quarter, once again led by investment and consumption. The solid employment growth of recent months suggests that wage pressures
More informationQuarterly Economic Monitor
Overview of Quarterly Economic Monitor December 214 Queenstown s economy boomed during 214, with ' provisional estimate of GDP showing that the Queenstown-Lakes District economy grew by 4.5% over the year
More informationVIEW FROM A. VIEW FROM A MILE HIGH: Tapering the Era of Cap Rate Compression. NOVEMBER 2013 July 2013
THE QUESTION OF HOW RISING TREASURY YIELDS WILL IMPACT CAP RATES has been a major topic of discussion over the past six months. Although many investors are concerned by the increase in Treasury yields,
More information