MSME PULSE JUNE 2018

Transcription

1 MSME PULSE JUNE 2018

2 ANALYTICAL CONTACTS Table of Contents Executive Summary 4 TransUnion CIBIL Deep Narayan Mukherjee EVP and Vertical Head - Commercial deep.mukherjee@transunion.com Vipul Mahajan JVP & Head, Commercial Products vipul.mahajan@transunion.com Rahul Vithani AVP, Commercial Products rahul.vithani@transunion.com Saloni Sinha Manager, Commercial Products saloni.sinha@transunion.com 1. On Balance Sheet Commercial Lending 6 2. Competitive Landscape New-to-Credit MSME Impact of Demonetisation and GST on MSME New-to-Bank Acquisition Profile Across Lenders MSME Credit Risk Profile of Top 30 Locations Risk Snapshot of MSME Portfolio as on Mar SIDBI Dr. R. K. Singh General Manager singhrk@sidbi.in Shri Rudra Prasanna Mishra Assistant General Manager rudrapmishra@sidbi.in Shri Pranava Piyush Assistant General Manager ppranava@sidbi.in 2 3

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Broad based recovery in credit growth: Overall credit exposure (Y-O-Y) has shown the highest growth rate in the last five quarters. In addition, after the lows of Sep 17, even exposure of the Large (credit exposure greater than `100 Crores) segment has grown two consecutive quarters showing early signs of recovery in credit growth. Micro (credit exposure less than `1 Crore) and SME (credit exposure in the range of `1 Crore - 25 Crores) segments constitute `12.6 Lakh Crores credit exposure (23% of commercial credit outstanding) with Y-O-Y growth of 22.2% and 12.8% respectively. In comparison, between Mar'17 and Mar'18, MID (credit exposure in the range of `25 Crores Crores) segment exposure has grown by 7.2% and Large (credit exposure greater than `100 Crores exposure) segment by 5.9% Large segment asset deterioration continues, Mid segment NPA rate restricted: In the Large corporate segment, NPA rates increased from 15.3% (Mar 17) to 18.0% (Mar 18). The directional reduction in NPA rate of Mid segment (16.3% in Mar 17 to 15.9% in Mar 18) may be attributed to bad debt being sold to Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARC) and uptick in loan growth in this segment. Assets under the management of ARCs increased by commensurate amount during the period. Relatively stable asset quality for MSMEs: MSME NPA rates have remained stable and range bound. In the Micro segment the NPA rate has moved from 8.9% (Mar 17) to 8.8% (Mar 18). In SME segment the NPA rate hovered between 11.4% (Mar 17) and 11.2% (Mar 18). Recognized NPA exposure for MSME is `81,000 Crores as on Mar 18 Growth to ensure asset quality: The future NPA in the segment may be driven by `11,000 Crores exposure, which are currently tagged as standard but belong to entities at least one or more exposures of which are tagged as NPA by other banks or credit institutions. Additionally, as of 31 st Mar 18, there is a system-wide exposure of `120,000 Crores belonging to entities with CIBIL MSME Rank (CMR) between CMR-7 and CMR-10. CMR-7 to CMR-10 are associated with High Risk. These high-risk exposures are expected to add `16,000 Crores in NPA by Mar 19. However, strong credit demand in this segment, among other things driven by formalization of credit demand is likely to keep the overall NPA rate in this segment in check. In addition, RBI relief to MSME borrowers with aggregate exposure up to `25 Crores, giving 90 day extension for repayments, is likely to lead to a reversal of about `15,000 Crores Gross NPA in this segment. New Private Sector Banks have 9% NTB acquisition in CMR-7 to CMR-10 grades compared to 16% in PSBs and 14% in NBFCs. However, New Private Banks and NBFCs lending to such high risk borrowers are largely offering asset backed loans, against identifiable and recoverable assets such as Commercial Vehicles, Construction Equipment, Property, etc. PSBs tend to offer to the same segment general Working Capital and Term Loans which are typically secured by a mix of current assets, plant and machinery and other movable and immovable assets. Formalization may add a Million New-to-Credit (NTC) MSME borrowers annually: Number of NTC borrowers in MSME segment continued to accelerate with 5 Lakh NTCs estimated in H1-18 compared to 4 Lakhs in H2-17. In effect going forward, it may be expected that annually, at least a Million plus NTC, MSME borrowers would be seeking formal credit. A recent NTC portfolio study suggests 60% first-time borrowers sustain or increase their credit exposure, in the two-year period following their first formal loan. Demonetization and GST Impact are firmly behind the MSMEs: As of Mar 18 based on the credit utilization exposure, the metric, used to gauge the impact in this study, it appears that most MSMEs including the smallest ones have recovered from the impact of demonetization and GST. Risk Profile study of top 30 locations: A study of the risk profiles of the top 30 locations by CMR distribution of borrowers shows that locations in the North and West regions have a comparatively better risk profile than the locations in the South and East. `12.6 LAKH CRORES CREDIT EXPOSURE New Private Banks most successful in tapping MSME opportunity: Private Banks and NBFCs have further increased their market share in Micro and SME lending from 27.5% and 9.1% in Mar 17 to 30.3% and 10.9% respectively in Mar 18. Share of Public Sector Bank (PSB) has fallen from 57% to 50.4% in the same period. Despite higher growth rate New Private Banks have better quality of acquisition of New to Bank (NTB) borrowers with 46% of them belong to high quality CMR-1 to CMR-3. In comparison, other lenders have around 35% of their incremental borrowers in CMR-1 to CMR-3. LARGE CORPORATE NPA RATES 18% (Mar 18) 15.3% 4 5 (Mar 17) PSBs SHARE 57% 50.4% (Mar'18) (Mar'17)

4 1. ON BALANCE-SHEET COMMERCIAL LENDING - PORTFOLIO AND NPA TRENDS The overall analysis is done on over 5 Million business entities ranging from proprietorship / partnership all the way to listed entities. The credit data is updated monthly with exposure and performance details from Banks, NBFCs, HFCs, Co-operative Banks, Regional Rural Banks and other regulated lenders. Overall Commercial Lending Exposure Trend: The total on balance sheet commercial lending exposure in India stood at `54.2 Lakh Crores, as of Mar 18 with Micro and SME 1 segments constituting of `12.6 Lakh Crores exposure (~23% of commercial credit outstanding). Large corporates having aggregated credit exposure of more than `100 Crores, account for `36.3 Lakh Crores (~67% of commercial credit outstanding). Micro Loans (less than `1 Crore) and SME Loans (`1-25 Crores) continue to surge in the commercial lending space showing Y-O-Y growth of 22.2% and 12.8% respectively. While MID (` Crores) segment has grown by 7.2%, Large (>`100 Crores) segment has shown early signs of recovery in credit growth, growing by 5.9% from Mar 17 to Mar 18. Table 1.A: On balance sheet commercial credit exposure (in ` Lakh Crores) Micro SME MID Large Overall <1 Crore 1-25 Crores Crores 100 Crores+ Mar' Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 17* Mar 18** Y-O-Y Credit growth (From Mar 17- Mar 18) 22.2% 12.8% 7.2% 5.9% 8.1% NPA Trends in commercial lending: The overall NPA rate of commercial lending was at 16.0% in Mar 18 (14.4%, Mar 17). The stock of gross NPA in commercial exposure increased by `1.48 Lakh Crore in Mar 18 over Mar 17. However, quarterly additions to NPA suggest that the steepest rise was between Q2FY 18 to Q3FY 18, While the growth in NPA rate has moderated, it is too early to conclude that the NPA problem is close to bottoming out. Looking into individual segments further, NPA rates in Micro and SME segment have remained range bound between 8.9% (Mar 17) to 8.8% (Mar 18) and 11.4% (Mar 17) to 11.2% (Mar 18) over the last one year. The growth rate in credit exposure and gross NPA amount in Micro/SME segment are comparable thus the coincidental gross NPA rate remains range bound. Notes: 1 Commercial loans classified into various segments basis credit exposure aggregated at entity level, Micro less than `1 Crore, SME `1-`25 Crores, Mid `25-`100 Crores, Large >`100 Crores, Stated credit exposure is fund based *Numbers based on recent refreshed data with TU CIBIL. **Trends basis the data available till date ~23% MICRO AND SME SEGMENT ~67% LARGE CORPORATES COMMERCIAL CREDIT OUTSTANDING 6 7

5 Credit exposure for MID segment has grown by 7.2% from Mar 17 to Mar 18, while gross NPA amount has grown by 5% in the same period. The incremental bad assets for MID segment in Dec 17 is `3,700 Crores compared to the quarter ending in Sep 17. Subsequently this segment has observed a reduction in gross NPA amount of `3,200 Crores from Dec 17 to Mar 18 ending quarter. It is also observed that while there has been a reduction in the absolute NPA amount, at the same time a large amount of stressed assets have moved to ARCs in the quarter ending Mar The NPA rate of large corporates continues to surge to 18% in Mar 18 from 15.3% in Mar 17. It is early to conclude whether the Gross NPA rates in the Large and MID segment has peaked out. As such the stock of NPA borrowers, some of whose exposures continue to remain standard, as well as accounts with irregular payment behavior continue to remain non-trivial. Large segment deterioration continues, MID segment NPA is plateauing 20.0% NPA RATE MICRO MAR 17 MAR 18 NPA Rates 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 18.0% 16.7% 16.3% 15.9% 16.5% 15.8% 15.2% 16.9% 14.5% 16.4% 15.3% 13.4% 14.7% 12.9% 11.3% 11.4% 12.1% 11.2% 11.2% 11.5% 10.6% 9.8% 10.3% 9.2% 8.2% 8.4% 8.6% 8.9% 8.9% 8.7% 8.7% 7.9% Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Micro SME MID Large Figure 1: Segment-wise NPA Rate in the last 2 years 18.0% 15.9% 11.2% 8.8% Mar 18 NPA RATE SME MAR 17 MAR 18 Notes: 2 Bad loans of Large and Mid-segments are moving to ARCs, (ARCs reported 3 Lakh Crores in the quarter ending Mar 18) translating into a reduction of NPA rate for MID segment 8 9

6 Micro and SME Segments This section delves into a detailed analysis on the sub-segments of Micro and SMEs where entity-wise credit exposure is less than or equal to `25 Crores. Micro is further segmented as Very Small, Micro1 and Micro2. Likewise, SMEs are further classified as SME1, SME2, and SME3. Table 1B: Credit Exposure of MSME Segments (in `Lakh Crores) Very Small Micro1 Micro2 SME1 SME2 MSME3 TOTAL Period less than 10 Lakhs Lakhs 50 Lakhs - 1 Crore 1-5 Crores 5-10 Crores Crores up to 25 Crores Mar' Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Y-o-Y Credit growth (From Mar 17- Mar 18) 34.9% 21.2% 16.3% 16.9% 11.2% 9.0% 15.4% NPA Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% Entities with exposure range from `10 Lakhs - `5 Crores have lower NPA rates 12.0% 10.9% 10.2% 7.7% 7.2% 7.2% 12.8% 11.5% 10.6% 7.7% 7.7% 13.2% 11.5% 10.9% 8.0% 8.3% 7.8% 7.9% 13.8% 12.1% 8.5% 8.5% 13.8% 11.7% 11.7% 11.9% 8.9% 9.0% 13.9% 11.8% 11.5% 13.8% 14.5% 11.6% 11.8% 11.2% 11.5% 11.5% 11.1% 8.8% 9.0% 9.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.0% 8.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.0% 8.2% 13.9% Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar % 8.2% 8.3% For the period Mar 17 to Mar 18, the entities having less than `25 Crores credit exposure have shown accelerating credit growth of 15.4% (Mar 16 to Mar 17, 12.7%). The Very Small segment (less than `10 Lakh exposure) has shown credit growth of 35%, followed by entities having `10 Lakhs `50 Lakhs and `1 Crore - 5 Crores exposure with growth of 21.2% and 16.9% respectively. <10 Lakhs Lakhs 50 Lakhs - 1 Crore 1-5 Crores 5-10 Crores Crores Figure 2: NPA Rates of MSME Segments Within the MSME segment, the NPA rates are higher for larger size exposures. Credit growth for the segment `5 Crores - 10 Crores is 11% from Mar 17 to Mar 18, however the gross NPA amount in this segment has grown by 4% for the same period, lead to the reduction of NPA rate. The exception to this trend is the Very Small segment (less than `10 Lakhs exposure) which has a higher NPA rate of about 11.1% in Mar 18. The larger SME3 segment (`10-25 Crores credit exposure) also exhibits higher NPA rate of 13.9% in Mar 18. CREDIT GROWTH VERY SMALL SEGMENT < `10 Lakhs CREDIT GROWTH SME SEGMENT `1 Crore - `25 Crores Notes: 3 MSMEs are classified into various segments on the basis of the ticket size of the loan amount disbursed, Micro 1 less than 50 lakhs, Micro2 50 lakhs-1 Crore, SME1 1 Crore - 5 Crores, SME2 5 Crores - 10 Crores, SME3 10 Crores - 25 Crores 34.9% CREDIT GROWTH MICRO SEGMENT `10 Lakhs-`1 Crore 19.2% 12.7% 10 For the period Mar 17 to Mar 18 11

7 2. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE: NEW PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS LIKELY TO REAP THE MSME OPPORTUNITY MOST PROFITABLY The combination of high credit demand and relatively low NPA rates make MSME among the most attractive target segment for institutional lenders. Public Sector Banks (PSBs) have traditionally been the dominant lenders to the MSME sector. But in last few quarters, Private Banks and NBFCs have successfully competed with public sector banks in getting a larger share of the lucrative MSME pie. Micro and SME exposure (less than `25 Crores) accounts for around 20% of PSBs total commercial outstanding credit as of Mar 18, compared to 28% in Private Banks and 30% in NBFCs as of Mar'18. Proportionate Share in % 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Market Share is shifting from PSB to Private Bank and NBFCs 6.1% 6.5% 8.4% 60.4% 57.0% 25.4% 8.2% 27.5% 9.1% Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 NBFC PRIVATE PSB Others Figure 3: Share of Lender Types in the MSME Segment 50.4% 30.3% The NPA of the PSBs has increased from 14.3% in Mar 17 to 15.0% in Mar 18 (11.9%, Mar 16). NBFCs have also witnessed an increase in NPA rates from Mar 16 to Mar % Market-Share Dynamics: While there has been 12 PSBs `6.3 Lakh Crores PRIVATE and NBFCs `5.2 Lakh Crores TOTAL MSME LENDING as of Mar 18 PSBs `31.9 Lakh Crores PRIVATE and NBFCs `18.3 Lakh Crores TOTAL COMMERCIAL LENDING as of Mar % Y-O-Y growth for Micro and SME Segments, PSBs MSME portfolio has grown only by 2.1% in the last 1 year. Furthermore, for private sector banks, lending to MSMEs has grown by 27.2% in the period Mar 17-Mar 18. The market share of public sector banks in MSME lending has fallen to 50.4% by Mar 18 from 57.0% in Mar 17 (60.4% in Mar 16). The market share of Private Banks has grown from 27.5% (Mar 17) to 30.3% (Mar 18) and for NBFCs, it has grown from 9.1% to 10.9% during the period Mar 17 to Mar 18. Growth-NPA Tango: Private Banks and NBFCs exhibit NPA levels in the range of 3-5% in the MSME segment. Within this, New Private Sector Banks having an average exhibit the lowest delinquency rates while NBFCs tend to have NPA rates at the higher end of the range.the gross NPA amount for PSBs has increased by 7.3% in MSME Segment, while credit has grown by 2.1% in one year from Mar 17-Mar 18. MSME segment has been relatively stable over time, surged for PSBs 16.0% 14.0% 14.3% 11.9% 15.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.1% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.6% 3.9% 2.0% 0.0% NBFC PRIVATE PSB Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Figure 4: Lender Type-wise NPA Rate 13

8 3. NEW MSME CREDIT SEEKERS ARE ACCELERATING Number of business entities which are seeking formal credit for the first time are defined here as New to Credit (NTC) borrowers. This section delves into a detailed analysis of MSMEs, where entity-wise credit exposure is less than or equal to `10 Crores. As such, NTC borrowers typically do not apply for loans larger than this size. In the quarter ending Mar 18, NTC borrowers were 2.7 Lakhs, H1-18 is expected to have 5 Lakh plus NTC 4 business borrowers. This is 21% higher than the NTC borrowers observed in H2-17 (~4 Lakhs). The highest growth is observed in the Very Small segment (less than `10 Lakhs exposure) in the quarter ending Mar 18 and is expected to grow by 24% in H1-18 as compared to H2-17. This acceleration coincides with formalization of the economy attributable to legal changes such as GST. The financial inclusion aspect, particularly for businesses, which seek loans of ticket size below `10 lakhs, have also benefitted from the Mudra loan scheme. As a percentage of the total borrower base, NTC additions are expected to grow from 7.2% to 11.9% in the Very Small borrower segment and 4.3% to 5.0% in the MSME segment from H1-16 to H1-18. New MSME Credit Seekers have accelerated in H1-18 Number of NTC entities % 4.3% 8.3% 4.9% 7.1% 4.4% 9.7% H1-16 H2-16 H1-17 H2-17 H1-18 < `10 Lakhs `10 Lakhs - `10 Crores < `10 Lakhs `10 Lakhs - `10 Crores Figure 5: New to Credit Entities Share and Growth 11.9% 5.2% 5.0% 14% 12% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% NTC additions as % of borrower base NEW TO CREDIT BORROWERS ACQUIRED REMAINED IN THE SAME BUCKET <`10 LAKHS 52.8% EXITED THE FORMAL LENDING 28.7% TURNED NPA 15.9% MOVED TO A HIGHER AMOUNT 2.5% Transition of MSME NTC borrowers in 2 years: 60% of NTC borrowers have a sustainable business profile While the number of NTC borrowers are increasing due to the dual tailwinds of formalization and regulatory push towards lending in this segment, it is important to investigate behavior of first time borrowers once the loan is availed. This would provide us with an insight on whether the additional economic opportunity created through formal lending is sustainable and create long term economic benefit. `10 LAKHS - `1 CRORE 70.2% 19.0% 4.3% 4.4% The NTC borrowers acquired in H1-16 have been considered and their Mar 18 status has been considered to see the transition over time. > `1 CRORE 65.8% 21.5% 4.3% 3.2% Notes: 4 This is an estimate based on new to credit additions up to Mar PERIOD-MAR 16 TO MAR 18 15

9 Of all the borrowers who availed sub `10 Lakhs loans for the first time between Jan-Jun 16, 52.8% remained in the same bucket in the following period of 2 years from Mar 16 to Mar % borrowers moved to borrowing an amount greater than `10 Lakhs. Overall about 55.3% borrowers in this segment have sustained or grown their level of credit activity. 28.7% of NTC borrowers exited the formal lending. 15.9% borrowers turned NPA. Of all the borrowers who availed `1 Crore - `10 Crores loans for the first time between Jan-Jun 16, 65.8% remained in the same bucket in the following period of 2 years from Mar 16 - Mar % borrowers moved to borrowing an amount greater than `10 Crores. Overall about 69.0% borrowers in this segment have sustained or grown their level of credit activity. 21.5% of NTC borrowers exited the formal lending. 4.3% borrowers turned NPA. Transition of Business Borrowers in <`10 Lakhs NTC Segment Transition of Business Borrowers in` 1 Crore - `10 Crores NTC Segment H1-16 NTC <10 L 10 L-1 Cr 1 Cr-10 Cr Cr Exit 15.9 NPA H Cr NTC <10 L 10 L-1 Cr 1 Cr-10 Cr 10 Cr+ Exit NPA Figure 6: Transition of <`10 Lakhs NTC entities in 2 years Figure 8: Transition of `1 Crore - `10Crores NTC entities in 2 years Of all the borrowers who availed `10 Lakhs to `1 Crore loans for the first time between Jan-Jun 16, 70.2% remained in the same bucket in the following period of 2 years from Mar 16 to Mar % borrowers moved to borrowing an amount greater than `1 Crore. Overall about 74.6% borrowers in this segment have sustained or grown their level of credit activity. 19.0% of NTC borrowers exited the formal lending. 4.3% borrowers turned NPA. 60% of the NTC borrowers have sustained or grown their credit activity in the two-year period following their first formal loan Additionally, the share of working capital credit facilities have grown from 52.3% in the first loan sanctioned to 61.7% in the quarter ending Mar 18 over a period of 2 years for the same set of entities. This depicts the increasing level of maturity and stickiness of the credit activity of these entities Transition of Business Borrowers in `10 Lakhs - `1 Crore NTC Segment H L-1 Cr NTC <10 L 10 L-1 Cr 1 Cr-10 Cr 10 Cr+ Exit NPA Figure 7: Transition of `10 Lakhs - 1 Crores NTC entities in 2 years 19 Share of Working Capital loan increases for NTC borrowers over time 61.7% All Sanctions 35.4% 52.3% First Loan Sanction 46.4% Working Capital Term Loan Figure 9: Distribution of loan type for new sanctioned loans 16 17

10 Private Banks are focusing more on acquisition of large ticket sized NTC MSMEs Private Banks focus shifted towards large size MSMEs: The acquisition pattern of NTC MSMEs has been analyzed for the period of Jan-Jun 16 and Jul-Dec 17 across the lenders. A proportionate share of NTC MSMEs across lenders is depicted below for H1-16 and H2-17. For Private Banks, the loan sanctions across all segments of MSMEs has been rising. The proportionate share of NTC borrowers for Private Banks has increased from 33% to 41% for `1 Crore - `5 Crores segment and 32% to 49% for the `5 Crores - `10 Crores segment. However, PSBs has remained the dominant lender for business entities in the <`10 Lakhs segment. Furthermore, the geographies in which PSBs operate indicate it would be difficult for small business borrowers in such a geography to find alternative lenders. NBFCs have also increased their share significantly in very small segment (<`10 Lakhs) in last 2 years. 100% 2% 3% 4% 90% 7% 6% 12% 9% 13% 11% 11% 80% 70% 57% 49% 50% 39% 45% 34% 30% 46% 60% 78% 75% 50% 40% 30% 49% 25% 33% 32% 39% 33% 41% 32% 20% 13% 17% 15% 0% 4% 9% 11% 12% 13% 12% 11% 11% H1-16 H2-17 H1-16 H2-17 H1-16 H2-17 H1-16 H2-17 H1-16 H2-17 (<`10 L) (`10 L-`50 L) (`50 L-`1 Cr) (`1-`5 Cr) (`5-`10 Cr) NBFC PRIVATE PSB Others Figure 10: Share of new to credit MSMEs across lenders in H1-16 and H2-17 The share of very small NTC enterprises in the Rural and Urban areas is 59% and 41% respectively. As we move from lower ticket size enterprises to higher ticket size of MSMEs, the share of NTC in urban areas increases. The large ticket segment of NTC MSME acquisition is high in urban areas as compared to the rural areas. 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% 41% 59% Share of NTC MSMEs Across Geography 53% 47% 59% <`10 L `10 L-`50 L `50 L-`1 Cr `1-`5 Cr `5-`10 Cr URBAN 41% RURAL 63% 37% 69% Figure 11: Distribution of NTC across Rural and Urban Areas 31% URBAN VERY SMALL NTC ENTERPRISES 41% 59% RURAL 18 19

11 4. MSME SEGMENT HAS FULLY RECOVERED FROM DEMONETIZATION AND GST IMPACTS Credit Exposure Dec'16 scaled to MSMEs Back on Track Demonetisation GST Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 `10-`50 Lakhs `50 Lakhs - `1 Crore `1-`5 Crores `5-`10 Crores Figure 12: Demonetization & GST Impact on MSMEs Details of borrowers used in the study: To study the impact of Demonetization and GST, only those borrowers were selected who were credit active during the entire period of Dec 15 to Mar 18. This is to eliminate the impact of new and exited borrowers on the analysis. In this segment majority of the credit facilities are working capital lines. The utilization levels of these working capital lines tends to be closely associated with the levels of economic activity reflected in production, trade, revenue and the likes. The relative reduction in credit exposure in the period post demonetization and post GST launch arguably, may have been linked to moderation in economic activity related to this segment. Post introduction of GST in Q2 2017, credit exposure again lowered for most MSME segments. Smaller segments contracted to pre-demonetization levels. In the last 2 quarters the credit activity has surpassed the pre-demonetization level activity in all segments. Specifically, MSME with exposures from `10 Lakhs - `10 Crores had recovered business activity to pre-demonetization levels in Sep 17, the segment with exposure of less than `10 Lakhs had not recovered to that extent up to Dec 17, but they have also now recovered to pre demonetization levels by Mar

12 5. NEW PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS HAVE SUPERIOR ACQUISITION PROFILE IN MSME SPACE As mentioned in the earlier sections, Private banks and NBFCs have a lower NPA rate in the MSME segment. This lower MSME NPA rate is driven primarily by having a superior quality of acquisition. We have compared the quality of MSME New-to-Bank (NTB) acquisition measured using CIBIL MSME Rank (CMR) of various kinds of institutions in the period from Jul 17 - Dec 17. New Private Old Private PSB Table 5.A. Proportion of Acquisition in CMR-7 to CMR-10 Plain Working Capital/ Term Loan 22% 60% 62% Asset Backed/ Retail Loans 62% 21% 16% NFB/ Trade 7% 8% 12% Other Facilities 9% 30% 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% New Private Banks have 47% acquisition in CMR-1-CMR-3, much better than other lenders CMR-1 CMR-2 CMR-3 CMR-4 CMR-5 CMR-6 CMR-7 CMR-8 CMR-9 CMR-10 New Pvt 5% 19% 23% 24% 13% 7% 3% 3% 3% 1% Old Pvt 2% 13% 20% 27% 12% 12% 7% 3% 2% 2% PSB 2% 14% 21% 25% 11% 11% 7% 4% 4% 2% NBFC 2% 12% 20% 28% 13% 11% 5% 4% 4% 1% New Pvt Old Pvt PSB NBFC Figure 13: Distribution of CMR across lenders New Private Banks have a significantly better profile in acquiring NTB accounts in the MSME space. New Private Banks acquire 47% of NTBs in CMR-1 to CMR-3 ranks compared to 36% for old Private Sector Banks, 37% for PSBs and 34% for NBFCs. New Private Banks have 9% acquisition in CMR-7 to CMR-10 ranks compared to 14% in Old Pvt sector banks, 16% in PSBs and 14% in NBFCs. NBFC CMR % CMR % CMR % CMR % 4% It is observed that while New Private sector banks are lending in the high risk segment of CMR-7 to CMR-10 they are mitigating the risk by extending mostly Asset Backed loans in this segment (Commercial Vehicle, Commercial Equipment, Auto Loans, Gold Loans, Mortgage Loans), while PSBs are extending plain Working Capital and Term Loan structures (62%) in this high risk segment. Even NBFCs which have 14% acquisition in the CMR-7 to CMR-10 ranks have 80% exposure through asset backed structures thus mitigating risk of lending in the high risk segment. ACQUIRING NTB ACCOUNTS NEW PRIVATE BANK OLD PRIVATE SECTOR 80% 6% 11% PSUs CMR % CMR % NBFCs CMR % CMR % 22 23

13 6. MSME CREDIT RISK PROFILE OF TOP 30 LOCATIONS Figure 14: CMR Distribution of Top 10 Locations as on Mar'18 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% 35% Figure 15: CMR Distribution of Next 20 Locations as on Mar'18 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 8% 12% SURAT RAJKOT AHMEDABAD CMR-7-10 Proportion 14% 16% 18% 20% BANGALORE NCR LUDHIANA JAIPUR MMR CMR-7-10 Proportion 13% 18% 23% MADURAI ERODE RAIPUR PANIPAT INDORE CHANDIGARH SALEM AGRA PUNE COIMBATORE VIJAYWADA GHAZIABAD LUCKNOW NAGPUR PATNA ERNAKULAM TIRUPPUR VADODARA HYDERABAD 22% CHENNAI KOLKATA 28% GUNTUR 24% CMR 1-3 Proportion CMR 1-3 Proportion Among the Top 10 locations Ahmedabad, MMR, NCR, Ludhiana & Jaipur have a better risk profile with high proportion of CMR-1 to CMR-3 borrowers and a low proportion of CMR-7 to CMR-10 borrowers. Surat has a low proportion of high risk borrowers. Overall locations in the North (NCR, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan) & West (Maharashtra, Gujarat) have a comparatively better risk profile than the South (Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh/Telangana, Kerala) and East locations Rajkot, Panipat, Indore, Vadodara, Pune and Lucknow are relatively low risk locations amongst Tier 2 locations for MSME segment. Guntur, Tiruppur, Patna and Kochi are relatively higher risk locations with high proportion of low rated companies

14 7. RISK SNAPSHOT OF MSME PORTFOLIO AS ON MAR 18 FUTURE PIPELINE A risk snapshot study is done to understand the current and potential stress in MSME Lending which will determine the future levels of recognized NPA. MSMEs for which NPA loans are reported form the Known layer of stress that has built up in the lending industry over a period of time. The potential NPA rate in the future would be driven by two types of entities/exposures: i) Partially recognized NPA: Borrowers tagged as NPA with one lender, however reported standard with other lender/s (High Risk) ` 81,000 Crores of recognized NPA Exposure ` 11,000 Crores of not recognized NPA exposure for entities NPA with at least1 bank Recognized NPA Partially recognised ii) CMR-7 to CMR-10 Borrowers: Non NPA Borrowers with CIBIL MSME Rank of CMR-7 to CMR 10 having higher probability of default by Mar 19 A deep dive into the data for Partially Recognized NPA & CMR-7 to CMR-10 borrowers shows that while NPAs are stable and in control, the likelihood of a sharp increase in NPA rates is low. ` 120,000 Crores of Non NPA entities in CMR-7 to CMR-10 Figure 16: Potential NPA Stack of MSMEs CMR-7 to CMR-10 Borrowers Overall, Recognized NPA exposure for MSME is `81,000 Crores as on Mar 18. RBI has provided a special dispensation for encouraging formalization of MSMEs on 6 th Jun 18, which says that for entities with aggregate exposure of `25 Crores, which were standard as on Aug 17, will be classified as standard if the repayments are made within 180 days. As per data on Mar 18, the total exposure of entities that were standard in Aug 17, and where repayments are delayed by 90 to 180 days in Mar 18 is `15,000 Crores. Hence this relaxed guideline for NPA recognition is likely to benefit these entities with `15,000 Crores exposure and reduce gross NPAs in this segment by a similar amount. `11,000 Crores is the Non-NPA exposure of entities whose other exposures are tagged as NPA by at least by one other bank. `120,000 Crores of exposure belongs to the entities which are in the high risk category of CMR-7 to CMR-10. Going by the past trends about `12,000 Crores is expected to turn NPA by Mar 19. Hence at a gross level from the partially recognized layer and CMR-7 to CMR-10 borrowers, about `16,000 Crores of additional NPA is expected in the next 12 months which translates to a gross addition of 20% on the current NPA base. However the net addition will be much lower given the recoveries from existing NPA pool. As such, given that the portfolio growth rate in this segment is expected to remain in the 15-20% range, at an overall level, for the MSME segment the NPA rates are expected to be stable in the next 12 months. We have plotted the portfolio distribution by CIBIL MSME Rank to understand the distribution of risk in different types of lenders

15 Proportion of Portfolio 25% 20% 15% 5% 3% CMR Distribution of Mar 18 Non-NPA MSME Portfolio 23% 22% 14% 12% 6% 4% 5% `16,000 CRORES ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NPA BY MARCH % 0% CMR-1 CMR-2 CMR-3 CMR-4 CMR-5 CMR-6 CMR-7 CMR-8 CMR-9 CMR-10 Figure 17: CMR distribution as of Mar'18 New Private Banks have 6% Non-NPA portfolio in the CMR-7 to CMR-10 ranks compared to 20% in PSBs and NBFCs 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 5% 0% Old Pvt New Pvt NBFC PSB CMR-1 CMR-2 CMR-3 CMR-4 CMR-5 CMR-6 CMR-7 CMR-8 CMR-9 CMR-10 2% 12% 20% 29% 14% 8% 3% 2% 0% 5% 22% 29% 20% 7% 2% 2% 2% 0% 1% 7% 15% 22% 19% 17% 8% 4% 8% 0% 3% 13% 21% 24% 7% 12% 8% 6% 6% 0% Old Pvt New Pvt NBFC PSB Figure 18: CIBIL MSME Rank distribution New Private sector banks have a significantly superior risk profile of the MSME portfolio compared to the market as New Private Sector Banks have 6% Non-NPA portfolio in the CMR-7 to CMR-10 ranks, compared to 13% for Old Private Sector Banks, and 20% for NBFCs and the NBFC high risk portfolio is similar to PSBs however NBFCs have significantly lower NPAs, it can be attributed to more asset backed structures and superior collection efficiencies of NBFCs

16 About SIDBI Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI), is the Principal Financial Institution for the Promotion, Financing and Development of the MSME sector and for the coordination of the functions of the institutions engaged in similar activities. The business domain of SIDBI consists of MSMEs, which contribute significantly to the national economy in terms of production, employment and exports. SIDBI meets the financial and developmental needs of the MSME sector with a Credit+ approach to make it strong, vibrant and globally competitive. For more information, visit About TransUnion CIBIL TransUnion CIBIL is India s leading credit information company and maintains one of the largest repositories of credit information globally. We have over 3000 members including all leading banks, financial institutions, non-banking financial companies and housing finance companies and maintain more than 900 Million credit records of individuals and businesses. Our mission is to create information solutions that enable businesses to grow and give consumers faster, cheaper access to credit and other services. We create value for our members by helping them manage risk and devise appropriate lending strategies to reduce costs and increase portfolio profitability. With comprehensive, reliable information on consumer and commercial borrowers, they are able to make sound credit decisions about individuals and businesses. Through the power of information, TransUnion CIBIL is working to support our members drive credit penetration and financial inclusion for building a stronger economy We call this Information for Good. Disclaimer This MSME Pulse Report (Report) is prepared by TransUnion CIBIL Limited (TU CIBIL). By accessing and using the Report the user acknowledges and accepts such use is subject to this disclaimer. This Report is based on collation of information, substantially, provided by credit institutions who are members with TU CIBIL. While TU CIBIL takes reasonable care in preparing the Report, TU CIBIL shall not be responsible for accuracy, errors and/or omissions caused by inaccurate or inadequate information submitted to it by credit institutions. Further, TU CIBIL does not guarantee the adequacy or completeness of the information in the Report and/or its suitability for any specific purpose nor is TU CIBIL responsible for any access or reliance on the Report and that TU CIBIL expressly disclaims all such liability. This Report is not a recommendation for rejection / denial or acceptance of any application, product nor any recommendation by TU CIBIL to (i) lend or not to lend; (ii) enter into or not to enter into any financial transaction with the concerned individual/entity. The Information contained in the Report does not constitute advice and the user should carry out all the necessary analysis that is prudent in its opinion before making any decisions based on the Information contained in this Report. The use of the Report is governed by the provisions of the Credit Information Companies (Regulation) Act, 2005, the Credit Information Companies Regulations, 2006, Credit Information Companies Rules, No part of the report should be copied, circulated, published without prior approvals. 30

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