Celina Independent School District, TX
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1 CREDIT OPINION Celina Independent School District, TX New Issue - Moody's assigns A1 underlying/aaa enhanced to Celina ISD's, TX GOULT New Issue Summary Rating Rationale Moody's Investors Service has assigned A1 underlying/aaa enhanced ratings to Celina Independent School District's, TX $23.3 million Unlimited Tax School Building and Refunding Bonds, Series 2016A. Concurrently, Moody's has maintained the A1 rating on $71.3 million in outstanding general obligation unlimited tax debt. The Aaa enhanced rating is provided by a guarantee of the Texas Permanent School Fund (PSF). Contacts Adebola Kushimo AVP-Analyst adebola.kushimo@moodys.com John Nichols AVP - Analyst john.nichols@moodys.com The A1 rating reflects continued strong assessed valuation growth driven by demand from favorable population growth, and reserve levels in line with peers despite recent draws. The rating also considers favorable wealth indices and an elevated debt profile. The Aaa enhanced rating is based on the rating of the Texas Permanent School Fund and the structure and legal protections of the transaction which provide for timely payment by the PSF if necessary. Moody s currently rates the Permanent School Fund Aaa. For additional information on the PSF program, please see Moody's Rating Update Report on the Texas Permanent School Fund dated May 3, Credit Strengths Assessed valuation growth History of stable financial reserves Growing enrollment Favorable wealth indices Credit Challenges High debt profile with slow payout Rating Outlook Outlooks are not usually assigned to local government credits with this amount of debt outstanding. Factors that Could Lead to an Upgrade Significant expansion and diversification of the district's tax base Trend of balanced operations that sustain General Fund reserves at high levels
2 Ability to maintain favorable financial metrics despite pressures associated with rapid enrollment growth Factors that Could Lead to a Downgrade Weak financial performance leading to erosion of liquidity Tax base contraction Significant borrowing without comparable tax base growth Key Indicators Exhibit 1 Source: Celina Independent School District, TX, Moody's Investors Service Detailed Rating Considerations Economy and Tax Base: Strong Residential Demand Drives Assessed Valuation Growth The district's tax base will continue to benefit from availability of land, and favorable population growth that fuels demand for housing. The majority of Celina Independent School District is located in Collin County (Aaa, stable outlook) and serves the City of Celina (A1) and surrounding rural areas. The tax base (fiscal 2016) is largely composed of single family residences (27.1%), and acreage (54.6%), providing ample opportunity for future development. In 2010, the U.S. Census reported a 72.5% increase in population, over the prior 10 years. Since then, population has slowed but remains favorable, growing by 4.3% in Nevertheless, assessed values have positively benefited from strong demand with values growing an average of 9.2% annually over the past five years. In fiscal 2017, values grew a significant 17.4% to reach $1 billion. Housing development in the area remains strong, with over 1,000 new homes being development in two subdivisions. Additionally, the area is undergoing an upgrade and expansion of major north south corridors, including the North Dallas Toll Road and Preston Road, which should improve accessibility to the district. The district's expanding tax base is supported by favorable wealth indices, and major taxpayer concentration is minimal. The county's June 2016 unemployment rate of 3.6% was below both the state's and the nation's. Parallel to strong population growth, enrollment levels have increased an annual average of 2.7% over the past five years. Enrollment grew 8% to reach 2,350 in fiscal According to a demographer, enrollment is expected to climb modestly in fiscal 2017 and fiscal 2018 at a rate of 3% annually followed by 10% growth in fiscal 2019, coinciding with completion of several residential developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2
3 Financial Operations and Reserves: Stable Financial Position Despite Historic Spending on Capital The district's financial profile will remain stable in the near term given expected balanced operations, despite operating pressures associated with enrollment growth. Despite a financial history that includes operating surpluses and draws, largely related to capital, the financial performance and metrics remain in line with similarly rated peers. Fiscal 2015 operations (General and Debt Service) ended with a modest draw of $73,000, in line with original expectations, as the district utilized reserves for capital needs. At the end of the year, the operating balance was $8.7 million (a healthy 37.8% of operating revenues), with $5.8 million (30.5% of General Fund revenues) in the General Fund. Total operating revenues during the year, were largely comprised of property taxes (58.4%), and state revenues (41.3%). In fiscal 2016, unaudited numbers reflect a $450,000 surplus. The district adopted a balanced budget for fiscal The district's favorable financial performance and healthy reserves while managing growing enrollment demands, continue to support the rating. LIQUIDITY Fiscal 2015 operating cash was strong at $7.8 million (35.8% of revenues) including the General and Debt Service Fund. The operating cash is expected to remain stable given surplus operations in fiscal Debt and Pensions: Debt Burden Will Remain Elevated The district's debt profile will remain elevated as principal amortization remains slow, and the district continues to face infrastructure demand from growing enrollment. Including the new sale, the district's direct debt burden is 8.6% (10.8% overall) on a fiscal 2017 valuation. The debt burden is more than twice the national median for similarly rated peers. The debt service is also net of an estimated 1.9% in state aid for debt. Post sale, the district will have $25.6 million in authorized unissued debt, and officials do not have any immediate timeline for future debt issuance. Officials expect to keep the current debt service levy flat at $5 per $1,000 of assessed values, with future debt issuance will largely depend on assessed valuation growth. DEBT STRUCTURE Including the current issue, the district has $87.6 million outstanding with $1.1 million in limited tax obligations. The limited tax obligations (Series 2010 maintenance tax notes) are privately placed and not rated by Moody's. The debt service schedule on the unlimited tax debt is largely flat at $5.7 million through 2036 before descending until final maturity in fiscal The maintenance tax notes mature in Principal amortization is slow with 28.8% of principal retired within 10 years. DEBT-RELATED DERIVATIVES The district is not party to any interest rate swaps or other derivative agreements and does not have any variable rate debt. PENSIONS AND OPEB Budgetary pressure due to the district's participation in the Texas Teachers Retirement System (TRS) pension plan is expected to remain minimal in the near term. Moody's fiscal 2015 adjusted net pension liability (ANPL) for the district, under our methodology for adjusting reported pension data, is $7.6 million, or a modest 0.33 times operating revenues. The three year average of the district's ANPL to operating revenues is 0.33 times, while the three-year average of ANPL to full value is 0.97%. Moody's ANPL reflects certain adjustments we make to improve comparability of reported pension liabilities. The adjustments are not intended to replace the district's reported contribution information, but to improve comparability with other rated entities. For more information on Moody's insights on employee pensions and the related credit impact on companies, government, and other entities across the globe, please visit Moody's on Pensions at Management and Governance: Adherence to Fiscal Goals Texas school districts have an institutional framework score of Aa, or strong. Revenues, which are highly predictable, are determined by the state funding formula that takes into account local taxes and state aid. School districts maintain moderate revenue-raising flexibility. Although property tax rates (typically $10.40) are under the state-mandated cap of $11.70 per $1,000 of assessed value, districts are dependent on enrollment growth to drive additional revenue. Expenditures, which primarily consist of personnel and facility operational costs, are highly predictable. Districts have a moderate degree of flexibility to make cuts given the lack of unions within the state. 3
4 The district is governed by a seven member board with staggered expiration terms. The district has a history of maintaining reserve levels in excess of its goal of 2.5 to 3 months of operating expenditures in General Fund balance. Legal Security The bonds are secured by a continuing and direct annual ad valorem tax, levied on all taxable property without legal limitation as to rate or amount. Use of Proceeds A portion of the proceeds will refund certain existing maturities for an expected net present value savings, while the remainder will be used for district wide infrastructure development, and land purchase. Obligor Profile The district is located primarily in Collin County (Aaa/stable outlook) and is centered approximately 30 miles north of downtown Dallas. The district is roughly 96 square miles and has a current enrollment of 2,350. The district currently maintains one school each at the elementary, intermediate, middle, junior high, and high school levels. Methodology The principal methodology used in the underlying rating was US Local Government General Obligation Debt published in January The principal methodology used in the enhanced rating was Rating Transactions Based on the Credit Substitution Approach: Letter of Credit-backed, Insured and Guaranteed Debts published in December Please see the Ratings Methodologies page on for a copy of these methodologies. Ratings Exhibit 2 Celina Independent School District, TX Issue Unlimited Tax School Building and Refunding Bonds, Series 2016A Rating Type Sale Amount Expected Sale Date Rating Description Unlimited Tax School Building and Refunding Bonds, Series 2016A Rating Type Sale Amount Expected Sale Date Rating Description Rating A1 Underlying LT $23,315,000 09/19/2016 General Obligation Aaa Enhanced LT $23,315,000 09/19/2016 General Obligation Source: Moody's Investors Service 4
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6 Contacts Adebola Kushimo AVP-Analyst 6 CLIENT SERVICES John Nichols AVP - Analyst john.nichols@moodys.com Americas Asia Pacific Japan EMEA
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