Presentation to the Credit Suisse Investors Conference. Papua New Guinea Economy

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Milton Warren
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1 Bank of Papua New Guinea Presentation to the Credit Suisse Investors Conference Papua New Guinea Economy ~ March 2017 Hong Kong

2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Nominal GDP (K bn) Constant Price GDP (K bn) Nominal GDP growth rate (Y-o-Y %) 21.1% 18.6% % 11.6% 10.0% 4.3% % % % 3.8% 1.1% % % 1.5% E E Source: , NSO; Central Bank estimates (E)_ 2016, 15 th consecutive year of broad-based economic growth GDP growth rates amongst the highest in the world , nominal GDP grew from K38.8 billion to K68.2 billion, 76% or on average, 11.6% per annum GDP (in constant 2013 prices) over the same period grew from K43.4 billion to K57.4 billion, by 32% or on average 5.6% per annum Slide 2

3 Diversified economic structure 4.0% 23.0% 17.0% 4.0% 6.0% 20.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Commerce Construction Admin & Support Real Estate Finance & Insurance Mining & quarrying 21.0% In 2010 Dominant sectors are: agriculture/forestry/fisheries, mining, commerce and construction; Others include transport, manufacturing, education, health 19.0% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Commerce Construction By 2016 Second full year of LNG production and export - mining, oil & gas sector s share increased to 25% Other traditional sectors agriculture/forestry/fisheries, commerce and construction remain dominant 15.0% 10.0% 3.0% 6.0% 7.0% 7.0% 10.0% Admin & Support Real Estate Finance & Insurance Mining & quarrying Oil and gas extraction Others Slide 3

4 K'mn 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Fiscal Operations of the Government (K mn) 0 Revenue Expenditure (est) 2017 (Budget) Prudent fiscal management with Supplementary Budgets to adjust for low revenue as a result of low international commodity prices, including oil Expenditure on key priority areas of health, education, infrastructure, law and order not affected Fiscal deficit Fiscal Deficit will decline over time Deficit / GDP (%) 0.7% (0.2%) (2.5%) (2.3%) (1.9%) (4.3%) (4.7%) (4.5%) (5.3%) Major adjustment to fiscal operations was decided on in 2012 and 2014 with the development of the LNG project, and commencement of production in As a result of sharp decline in oil prices, adjustment was immediately undertaken (7.8%) E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E Slide 4

5 Debt will be lower than debt limit over time Debt / GDP (%) 24.9% 27.1% 28.0% 30.5% 29.1% 29.6% 30.1% 17.8% 17.4% 19.1% E 2016 E 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E Debt ratio Debt sustainability strategy Debt-to-GDP ratio maintained within the legislated ratio of 30% 25, , , , , Government Debt (K mn) Int'l Commercial Int'l Concessional Dom Others Dom T'bonds Dom T'bills E Negligible level of external commercial debt Most debt is in domestic Gov t securities (Treasury bills and bonds) External debt is mainly concessional with low cost funding, from World Bank, ADB and others Slide 5

6 Debt Service Indicator E 1) Nominal GDP (K'mn) 38,752 42,642 44,372 47,721 56,621 63,189 68,244 2) Domestic Debt (K'mn) 4, , , , , , , ) External Debt (K'mn) 2, , , , , , , ) Total Debt (K'mn) 6, , , , , , , ) Total Debt service (K'mn) , , , ) Total Interest service (external + Domestic) K'mn , , ) External public debt service (K'mn) ) Total Govt Revenue (K'mn) 8, , ,566 9, , , ,662.9 Ratios E 1) Total domestic debt as % GDP ) Total external debt as % GDP ) Total debt as % GDP ) Debt service as % of Government revenue ) Interest service as % GDP ) Interest service as % of Government revenue ) External debt service as % GDP Sustainable debt level. External debt is very low Debt service is priority and PNG has never been late in repayments Low interest payment burden, both as a percentage of Gov t revenue and GDP Slide 6

7 Balance of Payments (In K bn) Current account Capital and financial account Overall balance Exports, 2016 (K24.9bn) 6% 13% 4% 3% (1.7) (0.4) (4.8) (prel) (7.7) (6.8) 33% (12.8) (16.9) (In K bn) Import Exports Current Account (1.7) (0.4) (prel) (4.8) (7.7) 5% Agriculture Marine products Oil Condensates Forestry Mining LNG 35% Turn-around from deficit to surplus in the current account since 2014 mainly due to LNG exports. The surplus are kept offshore to pay off project loans Tax income will be realised following the decline in accelerated depreciation allowances around resulting in Balance of Payments surpluses and foreign currency inflows Slide 7

8 Financial system 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Assets (K mn) Superannuation Funds National Development Bank Finance companies Savings and loans institutions Others Central Bank 30,000 20,000 10, Very stable financial system with high capital base, well above the 12% capital requirement by the Central Bank Overall total financial assets are very low compared to developed countries. Financial institutions (banks) are not involved in development funding Low non-performing loans of the financial system Financial system is highly profitable Slide 8

9 Thank you

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