Quarterly U.S. Consumer Credit Trends DATA AS OF DECEMBER 2017

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1 Quarterly U.S. Consumer Credit Trends DATA AS OF DECEMBER 2017 March 2, 2018

2 Quarterly U.S. Consumer Credit Trends Data as of December 2017 Published February 10, 2018 Visit us at This report and accompanying data files can be found at

3 Quarterly US Consumer Credit Trends Report Table of Contents First Mortgage 4 Home Equity 11 Auto 21 Credit Card: Bankcard 27 Credit Card: Private Label 33 Consumer Finance 39 Student Loans 45 Notes 51 Contact information back cover 3

4 US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: FIRST MORTGAGE 4

5 First Mortgage Outstanding Loans by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA

6 First Mortgage Loan Delinquency Rates Percent of Dollar Balances; NSA 9% 8% 7% Early Delinquency Serious Delinquency 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% *Early delinquency is defined as all loans 30-days past due. Serious delinquency includes all loans 90-or-more-days past due, in bankruptcy, or in foreclosure, excluding write-offs and REOs. 6

7 First Mortgage Loan Originations by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA First Mortgage Purchase First Mortgage HARP Refinance First Mortgage NonHARP Refinance Sources: Equifax Inc. Data are as of January 2018; Federal Housing Finance Agency (Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) data reported through November 2017), refinance/purchase shares for 2016 and earlier from Federal Financial Institution Examinations Council (Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data); 2017 refinance/purchase shares estimated by Equifax. 7

8 First Mortgage Loan Originations by Quarter Origination Balances in Billions; NSA First Mortgage Purchase First Mortgage Refinance Sources: Equifax Inc. Data are as of January 2018; refinance/purchase shares for 2016 and earlier from Federal Financial Institution Examinations Council (Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data); 2017 refinance/purchase shares estimated by Equifax. 8

9 First Mortgage First Mortgage Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore 3.0 Distribution for First Mortgage Originations by Year (% Of Accounts) 100% No Score 780-High % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9

10 First Mortgage Credit Risk at Origination by Select Deciles Origination VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score; NSA Average Origination Balance For Highest-risk Decile; NSA Median VantageScore 3.0 (L) 10 th Percentile VantageScore 3.0 (L) Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts (R) $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50, $0 *Median VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score(VS3): half of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the median score and half have scores that are equal to or lower than this score. 10th Percentile VS3: 90 percent of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the 10th percentile score and 10 percent have scores equal to or less than this score. Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average balance for all newly opened accounts for which the account s representative borrower s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th percentile VS3. 10

11 US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: HOME EQUITY 11

12 Home Equity Outstanding Loans by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA HE Loan HELOC *HELOCs are defined as home equity revolving lines of credit. HE Loans are defined as home equity installment loans 12

13 Home Equity: HELOC Delinquency Rates Percent Of Dollar Balances; NSA 3.5% 3.0% Early Delinquency Serious Delinquency 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% *HELOCs are defined as home equity revolving lines of credit. Early delinquency is defined as all loans 30-days past due. Serious delinquency includes all loans 90-or-more-days past due, in bankruptcy, or in foreclosure, excluding write-offs and REOs. 13

14 Home Equity: HE Loan Loan Delinquency Rates Percent of Dollar Balances; NSA 10% 9% 8% Early Delinquency Serious Delinquency 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% *HE Loans are defined as home equity installment loans. Early delinquency is defined as all loans 30-days past due. Serious delinquency includes all loans 90-or-more-days past due, in bankruptcy, or in foreclosure, excluding write-offs and REOs. 14

15 Home Equity Originations by Quarter Number Of Accounts In Thousands; NSA 1, HE Loan HELOC Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as of January *HELOCs are defined as home equity revolving lines of credit. HE Loans are defined as home equity installment loans 15

16 Home Equity Originations by Quarter Origination Credit Limits for HELOCs & Balances for HE Installment Loans in $Billions; NSA HE Loan HELOC Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as of January *HELOCs are defined as home equity revolving lines of credit. HE Loans are defined as home equity installment loans 16

17 Home Equity: HELOC HELOC Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore 3.0 Distribution for HELOC Originations by Year (% of Accounts) 100% No Score 780-High % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 17

18 Home Equity: HE Loan Home Equity Installment Loan Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore 3.0 Distribution for Home Equity Loan Originations by Year (% of Accounts) 100% No Score 780-High % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 18

19 Home Equity: HELOC Credit Risk at Origination by Select Deciles Origination VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score; NSA Average Origination Credit Limit For Highest-risk Decile; NSA Median VantageScore 3.0 (L) 10 th Percentile VantageScore 3.0 (L) Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts (R) $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20, $0 *Median VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score(VS3): half of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the median score and half have scores that are equal to or lower than this score. 10th Percentile VS3: 90 percent of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the 10th percentile score and 10 percent have scores equal to or less than this score. Average Origination Credit Limit for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average credit limit for all newly opened accounts for which the account s representative borrower s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th percentile VS3. 19

20 Home Equity: HE Loan Credit Risk at Origination by Select Deciles Origination VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score; NSA Average Origination Balance For Highest-risk Decile; NSA Median VantageScore 3.0 (L) 10 th Percentile VantageScore 3.0 (L) Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts (R) $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10, $0 *Median VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score(VS3): half of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the median score and half have scores that are equal to or lower than this score. 10th Percentile VS3: 90 percent of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the 10th percentile score and 10 percent have scores equal to or less than this score. Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average balance for all newly opened accounts for which the account s representative borrower s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th percentile VS3. 20

21 US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: AUTO LOANS AND LEASES 21

22 Auto Loans & Leases Outstanding Loans by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA

23 Auto Loans & Leases Delinquency Rates Percent of Dollar Balances; NSA 3.5% 3.0% Early Delinquency Serious Delinquency 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% *Early delinquency is defined as all loans 30-days past due. Serious delinquency includes all loans 60-or-more-days past due, excluding write-offs. 23

24 Auto Loans & Leases Originations by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as of January

25 Auto Loans & Leases Auto Loans and Leases Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore 3.0 Distribution for Auto Originations by Year (% of Accounts) 100% No Score 780-High % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 25

26 Auto Loans & Leases Credit Risk at Origination by Select Deciles Origination VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score; NSA Average Origination Balance For Highest-risk Decile; NSA Median VantageScore 3.0 (L) 10 th Percentile VantageScore 3.0 (L) Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts (R) $52,500 $45,000 $37,500 $30,000 $22,500 $15,000 $7, *Median VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score(VS3): half of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the median score and half have scores that are equal to or lower than this score. 10th Percentile VS3: 90 percent of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the 10th percentile score and 10 percent have scores equal to or less than this score. Average Origination Loan Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average loan balance for all newly opened accounts for which the account s representative borrower s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th percentile VS3. $0 26

27 US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: BANKCARDS 27

28 Credit Cards: Bankcard Outstanding Loans by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA *Bankcards are defined as general purpose credit cards. 28

29 Credit Cards: Bankcard Delinquency Rates Percent of Dollar Balances; NSA 6% 5% Early Delinquency Serious Delinquency 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% *Bankcards are defined as general purpose credit cards. Early delinquency is defined as all loans 30-days past due. Serious delinquency includes all loans 90-or-more-days past due, excluding write-offs. 29

30 Credit Cards: Bankcard Originations by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as of January *Bankcards are defined as general purpose credit cards. 30

31 Credit Cards: Bankcard Bankcard Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore 3.0 Distribution for Bankcard Originations by Year (% of Accounts) 100% No Score 780-High % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 31

32 Credit Cards: Bankcard Credit Risk at Origination by Select Deciles Origination VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score; NSA Average Origination Credit Limit For Highest-risk Decile; NSA Median VantageScore 3.0 (L) 10 th Percentile VantageScore 3.0 (L) Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts (R) $2,400 $2,100 $1,800 $1,500 $1,200 $900 $600 $300 $0 *Median VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score(VS3): half of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the median score and half have scores that are equal to or lower than this score. 10th Percentile VS3: 90 percent of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the 10th percentile score and 10 percent have scores equal to or less than this score. Average Origination Credit Limit for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average credit limit for all newly opened accounts for which the account s representative borrower s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th percentile VS3. 32

33 US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: PRIVATE LABEL CREDIT CARDS 33

34 Credit Cards: Private Label Outstanding Loans by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA *Private label credit cards are issued for use at specific retailers. 34

35 Credit Cards: Private Label Delinquency Rates Percent of Dollar Balances; NSA 7% 6% Early Delinquency Serious Delinquency 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% *Private label credit cards are issued for use at specific retailers. Early delinquency is defined as all loans 30-days past due. Serious delinquency includes all loans 90-or-more-days past due, excluding write-offs. 35

36 Credit Cards: Private Label Originations by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as of January *Private label credit cards are issued for use at specific retailers. 36

37 Credit Cards: Private Label Private Label Credit Card Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore 3.0 Distribution for Private Label Card Originations by Year (% of Accounts) 100% No Score 780-High % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 37

38 Credit Cards: Private Label Credit Risk at Origination by Select Deciles Origination VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score; NSA Average Origination Credit Limit For Highest-risk Decile; NSA Median VantageScore 3.0 (L) 10 th Percentile VantageScore 3.0 (L) Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts (R) $2,400 $2,100 $1,800 $1,500 $1,200 $900 $600 $300 $0 *Median VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score(VS3): half of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the median score and half have scores that are equal to or lower than this score. 10th Percentile VS3: 90 percent of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the 10th percentile score and 10 percent have scores equal to or less than this score. Average Origination Credit Limit for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average credit limit for all newly opened accounts for which the account s representative borrower s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th percentile VS3. 38

39 US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: CONSUMER FINANCE 39

40 Consumer Finance Outstanding Loans by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA *Consumer Finance: installment or revolving loans opened with a sales financing company, bank, or a personal finance company. 40

41 Consumer Finance Delinquency Rates Percent of Dollar Balances; NSA 9% 8% 7% Early Delinquency Serious Delinquency 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% *Consumer Finance: installment or revolving loans opened with a sales financing company, bank, or a personal finance company.. Early delinquency is defined as all loans 30-days past due. Serious delinquency includes all loans 90-or-more-days past due, excluding write-offs. 41

42 Consumer Finance Originations by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as of January *Consumer Finance: installment or revolving loans opened with a sales financing company, bank, or a personal finance company. 42

43 Consumer Finance Consumer Finance Loan Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore 3.0 Distribution for Consumer Finance Originations by Year (% of Accounts) 100% No Score 780-High % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% *Consumer Finance: installment or revolving loans opened with a sales financing company, bank, or a personal finance company. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 43

44 Consumer Finance Credit Risk at Origination by Select Deciles Origination VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score; NSA Average Origination Balance For Highest-risk Decile; NSA Median VantageScore 3.0 (L) 10 th Percentile VantageScore 3.0 (L) Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts (R) $3,600 $3,200 $2,800 $2,400 $2,000 $1,600 $1,200 $800 $400 $0 *Median VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score(VS3): half of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the median score and half have scores that are equal to or lower than this score. 10th Percentile VS3: 90 percent of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the 10th percentile score and 10 percent have scores equal to or less than this score. Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average balance for all newly opened accounts for which the account s representative borrower s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th percentile VS3. 44

45 US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: STUDENT LOANS 45

46 Student Loans Outstanding Loans by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA *Student Loan: loan funded for the purpose of financing post-secondary educational study 46

47 Student Loans Delinquency Rates Percent of Dollar Balances; NSA 14% 12% Serious Delinquency 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% *Student Loan: loan funded for the purpose of financing post-secondary educational study Serious delinquency includes all loans 90-or-more-days past due or in bankruptcy, excluding write-offs. Due to U.S. Department of Education servicing guidelines student loan delinquency is rarely reported prior to 90 days past due. 47

48 Student Loans Originations by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as of January *Private label credit cards are issued for use at specific retailers. 48

49 Student Loans Student Loan Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore 3.0 Distribution for Student Loan Originations by Year (% of Accounts) 100% No Score 780-High % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 49

50 Student Loans Credit Risk at Origination by Select Deciles Origination VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score; NSA Average Origination Balance For Highest-risk Decile; NSA Median VantageScore 3.0 (L) 10 th Percentile VantageScore 3.0 (L) Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts (R) $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2, $0 *Median VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score(VS3): half of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the median score and half have scores that are equal to or lower than this score. 10th Percentile VS3: 90 percent of newly originated accounts have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the 10th percentile score and 10 percent have scores equal to or less than this score. Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average balance for all newly opened accounts for which the account s representative borrower s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th percentile VS3. 50

51 US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: NOTES 51

52 Notes U.S. Consumer Credit Trends Data reported covers the period 1 st Quarter 2008 through 4 th Quarter 2017 and are not seasonally adjusted. Due to changes in data reported to Equifax, previously reported data may change. Data are sourced from Equifax s U.S. Consumer Credit database of over 220 million consumers. Equifax Credit Trends is the primary source for the data in this report; for more information on this database please visit These data are population level not a sample. Jointly held accounts are represented by a randomly selected borrower on the account. Tradelines are only counted once. Exclusions for data quality are applied, such as timely reporting of the establishment of the trade ( 12 months); completeness of the tradeline record including type, credit limit, balance outstanding and status; and other similar filters (e.g., exclude if borrower s death reported). Data on new tradeline originations are subject to revision for up to 12 months due to delays in lenders and servicers reporting to Equifax. First Mortgage tradelines may be most affected by delays as servicing rights as well as the loans themselves are frequently sold after origination. With the exception of first mortgage and home equity installment loans, at least 99% of expected new tradelines will have been recorded for the quarter preceding the most recent in this report (e.g., 4Q data in the 1Q report). Data on the credit-score characteristics of newly originated tradelines are reported as-is and may be subject to significant revision as additional loans originated in the quarter are reported to Equifax. 52

53 Notes U.S. Consumer Credit Trends Definitions: Account Type Auto Total: all accounts from banks and finance companies for loans or leases on light vehicles. Credit Cards Bankcard: general purpose credit cards Credit Cards Private Label: credit cards issued for use at particular retailers. Sometimes called retail cards or store cards. First Mortgage: loans with first lien position on a residential property. Home Equity Installment Loan: loans in second lien position on a residential property. These loans are amortizing for the full term of the loan and do not have a draw feature. Home Equity Revolving Lines of Credit (HELOCs): loans usually in second lien position on a residential property. These loans commonly require only interest payments during the draw period and then are recast into amortizing payments at the end of the draw. During the draw period the borrower may take advances from the line of credit. Consumer Finance: installment or revolving loans opened with a sales financing company or a personal finance company. These are typically unsecured finance trades. Student Loan: loan funded for the purpose of financing post-secondary educational study Deferred Student Loan: a student loan on which no payments are required as long as the loan is in deferral status. These loans are not used to calculate delinquency rates. Non-deferred Student Loan: a student loan in active repayment status on which the borrower is expected to make timely interest and principal payments. These loans are used for calculating delinquency rates. 53

54 Notes U.S. Consumer Trends Definitions: Other Closed Accounts: accounts that have a reported status of closed positive, in bankruptcy or severe derogatory. Accounts with these status categories are included in the month in which the status is first reported and are excluded from the database thereafter. Credit Limit: the maximum amount the borrower can access on the account. On installment accounts this is the original loan amount. On revolving accounts this is also known as the credit line or high credit. Severe Delinquency: for auto loans or leases, credit cards and consumer finance, accounts that are 60 days or more past due or in collections. For first mortgage, home equity loans and lines of credit, and student loans, accounts that are 90 days or more past due, in bankruptcy, or in foreclosure (excl. student loans). Severe Delinquency Rate: calculated as the sum of balances on accounts that are severely delinquent divided by the sum of balances outstanding in the period. Balances outstanding are the sum of balances on loans that are current, in any stage of delinquency or collections, in foreclosure or that were closed within the referenced month. Subprime: a loan characterized by a combination of factors that make it not-prime-credit quality, meaning that these loans will typically have higher default rates and higher loss rates on average than prime-quality loans from the same vintage. Within this report these are defined as loans extended to borrowers who at the time the loan was originated had a VantageScore 3.0 credit score (VS3) below 620. Median VantageScore: half of newly originated accounts in that quarter have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the median score and half have scores that are equal to or lower than this score. 10th Percentile VantageScore: 90 percent of newly originated accounts in that quarter have an associated borrower VS3 that is higher than the 10th percentile score and 10 percent have scores equal to or less than this score. Average Origination Loan Balance or Credit Limit for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average balance/limit for all newly opened accounts for which the account s representative borrower s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th percentile VantageScore 3.0 credit score. Total Mortgage Originations: originations from first mortgage, home equity installment and home equity lines of credit should be summed to obtain total mortgage originations. 54

55 Notes U.S. Consumer Trends Trademarks & Other Information VantageScore VantageScore is a trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC More information can be found at Equifax Equifax and the Equifax logo are registered trademarks of Equifax Inc., Atlanta, GA More information on Credit Trends data can be found at The Excel file containing all the data for the charts in this report can be found along with this report PDF at The information presented herein is for general informational use only. Neither Equifax nor any of its affiliates make any express or implied representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Equifax and its affiliates expressly disclaim any and all liability which may be based in whole or in part on such information, errors therein or omissions therefrom. This information is qualified in its entirety by the footnotes, assumptions and other qualifying statements contained herein. This information should not be relied upon in making any financial decision or otherwise. Such information is presented as of the date hereof only and is subject to change without notice. Equifax undertakes no responsibility to update or supplement the information contained herein. 55

56 Quarterly U.S. Consumer Credit Trends CONTACTS Amy Crews Cutts SVP, Chief Economist Gunnar Blix Deputy Chief Economist Chris Walker Product Manager, Credit Trends Jeff Dodge SVP, Investor Relations Trevor Burns SVP, Investor Relations Wyatt Jefferies Sr. Director, Public Relations Visit us online today at This report is available at