Brazil lending market report
|
|
- Edwin Crawford
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Brazil lending market report Released on March 6th, 217 at Lendit 217 Creditas Consultoria Financeira Ltda.
2 Executive summary 1. With 2 million population and US$5+ billion in outstanding debt, Brazil represents a unique opportunity to disrupt the lending space 2. Average spread of 32% create a revenue pool of US$16 bullion despite average NPLs stand at a relatively low 3.4% 3. Three unsecured products (personal loans, credit cars and overdraft) combine US$56 billion in outstanding debt that is priced at above 2%; these category represents 7%+ of the industry s net interest margin despite it provides less than 15% of all outstanding debt 4. Secured lending is clearly underpenetrated, with mortgages at 12% of GDP and auto financing representing less than US$1k per active car 5. With severe economic crisis, banks have hit the breaks of loan origination and further increase margins, despite NPLs remained stable 217 Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 2
3 Brazil has $55 billion in outstanding household debt with 31.9% spread Outstanding Debt ($ mn) Annual Origination ($ mn) Term (months) APR % Spread % NPL % Market-rates debt Payroll loans Auto loans Personal loans Credit cards Overdraft Renegotiations Purchase loans Others Earmarked debt Mortgages n.a. 1.5 Rural credit n.a. 2.2 BNDES credit n.a. 1 Others n.a. 6.7 Cards (not carried) Total debt Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 3
4 Outstanding household debt has been falling for 2 years in real terms Inflation adjusted outstanding household debt Inflation adjusted credit % increase 3% 25% 2% The last ten years have been characterized by a rapid growth of outstanding household debt. In 26 consumers had borrowed R$33 billion (R$62 billion at current prices) in loans from the financial system; ten years later, the volume stands at R$1.6 trillion (1% inflation-adjusted CAGR). Credit kept 15% growth rates even in the 28-9 turmoil while Brazilian GDP was collapsing by 5% % 1% 5% In the last couple of years though, credit growth has lost its shine, contracting in real terms by 3% annually in 215 and 216 With inflation decelerating in 216 and now expected to be below 5% in 217, we expect credit expansion to recover towards the second half of the year 4 % 2-5% Dec 6 Dec 8 Dec 1-1% 217 Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 4
5 Household debt stands at 24.8% of GDP Outstanding household debt to GDP Earmarked credit / GDP Nonearmarked credit / GDP Today household credit in Brazil represents 24.8% OF GDP (down from 25.6% a year ago) Household debt to GDP has doubled in a decade, from 12.3% in 26 Non-earmarked resources (market-rates debt), those not related to compulsory deposits or government funds, have been dropping since 212 Despite doubling its share as a percentage of GDP, 24.8% is a relatively modest ratio when compared to international standards 1 5 Dec 6 Dec 8 Dec Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 5
6 At 42% debt-to-income, Brazil has low indebtedness level 35 3 Household debt to income ratio In line with the rise of household debt to GDP, debt as a percentage of disposable income has increased to 42.2%, falling from 46% 2 years ago At this level, Brazil is highly underleveraged compared to international markets DNK NLD NOR AUS CHE SWE CAN KOR GBR PRT FIN ESP GRC BEL USA FRA AUT DEU ITA EST CZE SVK POL SVN LVA HUN BRA 217 Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 6
7 Despite low 42.2% debt ratio, debt service still at 21.6% 5 Inflation adjusted outstanding household debt % debt ratio % debt service ratio debt ratio debt service ratio Dec 6 Dec 8 Dec 1 25 High installments of Brazilian families debt, related to both high interest rate and short maturities, are impacting the debt service ratio Debt service peaked at 22.9% and has been increasing and remains high at 22.7% after peaking at 23.9% in 211. High debt service ratio is not related to high indebtedness: at 42.2% of disposable income, Brazilians are less leveraged than other economies. Instead, high interest rates and short loan maturities (both related to the low penetration of secured lending products) are at the root of the problem. On average, Brazilians are paying 42.% annually for their credit and 84.5% annually when we exclude subsidized earmarked products and non-carried balances of credit cards. Although the maturity of new operations has been steadily increasing to months, outstanding debt has a maturity of 64.2 months. Combining high interest rates and low maturities, Brazilians face high installments to be repaid for their loans. 217 Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 7
8 Increasing share of earmarked loans is extending average loan maturity Household debt maturity at origination (months) Share of earmarked loans to total credit 2 6% % 14 4% % 8 6 2% 4 1% 2 Dec 11 Dec 13 Dec 15 % Dec 11 Dec 13 Dec Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 8
9 AUTO VERTICAL Brazilian car fleet stands at 51.3 million, growth decelerating since Evolution of car fleet in Brazil Car fleet YoY % increase 9% 8% 7% 6% According to Denatran, Brazil s Department of Motor Vehicles, we reached 51.3 million registered cars in December 216, compared to approximately 13 million in the U.S. Car fleet growth has been slowing down in the last 1 years, with the exception of 212, when a set of tax rebate measures broke the otherwise constant slowdown in car fleet growth 5% 3 4% 2 3% 2% 1 1% Dec 6 Dec 8 Dec 1 % 217 Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 9
10 AUTO VERTICAL Car purchase transactions remain stable with share of used cars reaching 85% Evolution of car fleet in Brazil Car sales (thousand) per month % of used cars vs. total transactions 1,4 Sales new cars 9% Sales sed cars 1,2 % used cars 8% 7% 1, 6% 8 5% 6 4% 3% 4 2% Although the car fleet growth has been moderating in recent months, the transactional sales market remains strong, mostly due to a liquid used car sales industry. The share of used car transactions has steadily increased and today already represents 84.6% of all monthly transactions With fewer new cars and a growing used car fleet, the age of vehicles in operation is growing rapidly. Today, 47% of vehicles are older than 1 years, 19% are between seven and ten years old, and 25% are between three and six years old. Only 9% of cars are less than two years old. In the U.S., 38% of vehicles are older than 1 years, 22% are between 7 and 1 years old, and 26% fall between three and six years old. Vehicles less than two years of age account for 13% of the American fleet 2 1% Dec 6 Dec 8 Dec 1 % 217 Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 1
11 AUTO VERTICAL Auto financing origination had its weakest year since 28 Monthly loan origination in R$ billion 18 Outstanding auto loans Inflation adj auto loans The auto finance industry peaked in November 21 and has been decreasing in monthly originations despite the fact that the auto sales market peaked in 212 In real terms, the contraction has been tremendous, from the equivalent of today s R$16.7 billion in November 21 to a current level of R$7.3 billion Dec 6 Dec 8 Dec Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 11
12 AUTO VERTICAL Car fleet with lowest leverage levels in a decade Car fleet leveraging (R$ Thousand per fleet or sales) 2 Credit / fleet Origination / sales 18 Inflation-adjusted Credit / fleet Inflation-adjusted Origination / sales Leverage of the car fleet has been decreasing since 212 Current ratio of outstanding debt to car fleet has fallen to R$2.8k per car from R$6.k at the peak when adjusting for inflation Average financing of car sales is now R$6.7k (vs. R$11.9k at the peak or R$18k when adjusting for inflation) Dec 6 Dec 8 Dec Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 12
13 Widening margins despite stable NPLs AUTO VERTICAL Auto loans key economics Car fleet Average spread (%) NPLs (%) 25% 2% 15% 1% The period came with huge spreads for the entire industry. Little competition and a relatively scarcity of funding created the highest net margins of the decade (net margins of 18.5% and NPL at 3.%!!!!) Then, post-crisis, banks poured billions into the auto financing, reaching inflation- adjusted maximums by the end of 21. Full employment in the Brazilian economy (5% unemployment at that time) helped to achieve NPLs of 2.5%. With banks hungry for loans, spreads went down, origination grew and as a result, the period of registered an increase in overall NPLs up to 7.2% in May-212. Net margins suffered the most in 212 and 213, with spreads remaining low for Brazilian standards (around 1% p.a.) and NPLs relatively high (5-7%) 4 2 5% As predicted last year, banks kept an ultraconservative risk attitude, keeping low volumes, increasing margins (now above 14%). However, NPLs remained at 4.6% Dec 6 Dec 8 Dec 1 % 217 Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 13
14 MORTGAGES Mortgages deceleration continued in 216 Inflation adjusted outstanding mortgages Outstanding credit (R$ billions) 6 Inflation adjusted credit YoY % increase 5 4 % YoY increase 5% 4% 3% Real Estate financing has been the most active segment in the local household lending market, growing at a higher pace than the overall credit market Totaling R$534 billion, it accounts for more than one third of overall household debt or 8.5% of GDP. In January 212, it was 4.22% of GDP. The growth has been falling in recent years following stabilization of real estate pricing and lower residential demand. 3 2% 2 1% 1 % Dec 6 Dec 8 Dec 1-1% 217 Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 14
15 MORTGAGES Mortgages origination fell by 25% in Mortgages origination Monthly origination Inflation-adjusted monthly origination In 216 we saw the weakest year of the series with origination volume falling by 25% YoY. Annual origination in 216 was close to R$83 billion. Monthly mortgages originations peaked in July 213 at R$15 billion in real terms. Since April of 215, there has been a significant decline in the value of monthly originations with the latest print at almost half the peak. The trough of the series was reached in January of this year R$5.4 billion, representing a drop of 64% peak to trough Dec 1 Dec 11 Dec 13 Dec Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 15
16 Widening margins despite stable NPLs MORTGAGES Mortgages key economics Mortgage origination Average spread (%) NPLs (%) 5% 4% 3% New loan originations have been slowing down for the last two years due to weaker consumer demand and banks increasing selectivity when it comes to underwriting and depleted sources of funding Banks are increasing lending rates because of the weak labor market punctuated with unemployment at record highs and real income levels falling since February 215. To date mortgages have performed well, especially when compared to other consumer loan categories, with an average NPL of 2% since % Despite recession and higher unemployment rates, Brazilians are managing to pay their mortgages; with NPLs a 1.5% and widening spreads at 3.5%, we expect banks to increase origination during 217 1% 2 Dec 6 Dec 8 Dec 1 % 217 Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 16
17 Contact details Sergio Furio Founder & CEO, Creditas Nicole Simms Funding & Research analyst, Creditas 217 Creditas Soluções Financeira Ltda. 17
What is the economic outlook for OECD countries?
The outlook What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? Paul van den Noord Counselor to the Chief Economist The outlook Real GDP growth, in per cent.....9. -..9 Japan. -... Total OECD.... Brazil....
More informationNero Meeting: Alain de Serres OECD Economics Department. 21 June 2013
Nero Meeting: The structural reform agenda to boost longterm growth and its side-effects on nearterm activity and other objectives Alain de Serres OECD Economics Department 21 June 2013 Benchmarking exercise
More informationWirtschaftspolitik für höheres Wachstum und weniger Ungleichheit
Wirtschaftspolitik für höheres Wachstum und weniger Ungleichheit BMWi, Berlin, 16 th March 2017 Christian Kastrop Director, Economics Department Key messages Most people in many OECD countries have seen
More informationFA M I LY A L L O WA N C E A N D F E M A L E L A B O U R M A R K E T S U P P LY I G A M A G D A
FA M I LY 5 0 0 + A L L O WA N C E A N D F E M A L E L A B O U R M A R K E T S U P P LY I G A M A G D A Background & research question Introduction of a large Family 500+ Programme in 2016 in Poland aim-
More informationOECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013
OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 213 CANADA HIGHLIGHTS Canada experienced a decline in business spending on R&D between 21 and 211, despite generous public support, mainly through tax incentives
More informationSERVICES TRADE, REGULATION AND GVCS
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON TRADE, SERVICES AND DEVELOPMENT Geneva, 11 13 May 2015 SERVICES TRADE, REGULATION AND GVCS SESSION 2 Ms. Dorothée Rouzet
More informationG20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting February February, Structural Reform in a Crisis Environment.
G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting February 24-25 February, 2012 Structural Reform in a Crisis Environment Note by the OECD Structural reform is an essential ingredient to achieve sustainable
More informationIs Full Employment Sustainable?
Is Full Employment Sustainable? Antonio Fatas INSEAD Very preliminary. This version: March 11, 2019 Introduction The US economy started its current expansion phase in June 2009. This means that, as of
More informationWhy Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition?
Why Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition? IMF Macroeconomic Policy Seminar Vienna, June 13, 2018 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central, Eastern
More informationRegional Economic Issues in CESEE
Regional Economic Issues in CESEE JVI Lecture, Vienna, February 8, 2017 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Outlook for CESEE 2 Within CESEE dichotomy:
More informationWhy is Japan s inward FDI so low?
Why is Japan s inward FDI so low? Jun Saito, Senior Research Fellow Japan Center for Economic Research August 8, 2017 Japan s low level of inward foreign direct investment stock In May, it was reported
More informationEFFECTS OF NEW US AUTO TARIFFS ON GERMAN EXPORTS, AND ON INDUSTRY VALUE ADDED AROUND THE WORLD
1 ifo Institute ifo Center for International Economics Gabriel Felbermayr & Marina Steininger Feb 15, 2019 EFFECTS OF NEW US AUTO TARIFFS ON GERMAN EXPORTS, AND ON INDUSTRY VALUE ADDED AROUND THE WORLD
More informationTHE BENEFITS OF EXPANDING THE ROLE OF WOMEN AND YOUTH IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
G7 International Forum for Empowering Women and Youth in the Agriculture and Food Systems THE BENEFITS OF EXPANDING THE ROLE OF WOMEN AND YOUTH IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES Randall S. Jones Head, Japan/Korea
More informationCredit Supply, Household Debt, and Business Cycles
Credit Supply, Household Debt, and Business Cycles Amir Sufi University of Chicago Booth School of Business; NBER; co-director of IGM February 2017 Big Picture Questions What is the source of macroeconomic
More informationCOVERAGE OF PRIVATE PENSION SYSTEMS AND MAIN TRENDS IN THE PENSIONS INDUSTRY IN THE OECD
COVERAGE OF PRIVATE PENSION SYSTEMS AND MAIN TRENDS IN THE PENSIONS INDUSTRY IN THE OECD Fafo Pension Forum Oslo, 16 November 2012 Stéphanie Payet OECD Financial Affairs Division Structure of the Presentation
More informationState Involvement and Economic Growth
State Involvement and Economic Growth (The Future of the European Economy: Over to the State, or to the Market?) 27th Economic Forum Krynica, Poland September 2017 Bas B. Bakker Senior Regional Resident
More informationRoads to recovery. George Gelauff, Debby Lanser, Albert van der Horst, Adam Elbourne. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Roads to recovery George Gelauff, Debby Lanser, Albert van der Horst, Adam Elbourne The Great Recession 2008-2013 Financial crisis: Global imbalances Risk perception Complex and risky financial innovations
More informationOECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Will Soft Foundations and Financial Vulnerabilities Derail the Modest Recovery? Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Will Soft Foundations and Financial Vulnerabilities Derail the Modest Recovery? Presentation to LUISS 10 April 2017 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Key messages Global
More informationFiscal Policy and Economic Growth
Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth Vitor Gaspar Director, Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund Peterson Institute for International Economics June 3, 15 Background The study draws on an
More informationRevenue Statistics Tax revenue trends in the OECD
Revenue Statistics 2017 Tax revenue trends in the OECD OECD 2017 The OECD freely authorises the use of this material for non-commercial purposes, provided that suitable acknowledgment of the source and
More informationHigh Debt, Slow Growth, Financial Instability, Growing Inequality: What Role for Economic Policy?
High Debt, Slow Growth, Financial Instability, Growing Inequality: What Role for Economic Policy? Paul van den Noord Counsellor to the Chief Economist, OECD 1 Central projection growth, annualised, in
More informationManaging Public Wealth
Managing Public Wealth Jason Harris IMF Fiscal Monitor October 218 November 218 Managing Public Wealth Overview I. The Public Sector Balance Sheet II. Why Does it Matter? III. Policy Implications Risk
More informationEarnings related schemes: Design, options and experience. Edward Whitehouse
Earnings related schemes: Design, options and experience Edward Whitehouse Retirement-income systems: goal Primary objective ensuring older people have a decent standard of living in retirement Two interpretations
More informationThe Global Economic Outlook: Stronger growth ahead, but more risks Paris, 19th November h00 Paris time
The Global Economic Outlook: Stronger growth ahead, but more risks Paris, 19th November 2013 11h00 Paris time Pier Carlo Padoan Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist OECD Economic Outlook: key messages
More informationWHAT DO HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS SUGGEST ABOUT THE TOP 1% INCOMES AND INEQUALITY IN OECD COUNTRIES? Nicolas Ruiz (OECD)
WHAT DO HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS SUGGEST ABOUT THE TOP 1% INCOMES AND INEQUALITY IN OECD COUNTRIES? Nicolas Ruiz (OECD) Motivation: the Inclusive growth puzzle the top percentile managed to capture a very large
More informationFrom Here to Eternity: The Outlook for Fiscal Adjustment in Advanced Economies. Carlo Cottarelli Director, Fiscal Affairs Department
From Here to Eternity: The Outlook for Fiscal Adjustment in Advanced Economies Carlo Cottarelli Director, Fiscal Affairs Department Peterson Institute May 2, 213 1 Main Questions How bad is the fiscal
More informationOECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF NORWAY
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF NORWAY Maintaining a successful economy in a changing world Centre for Monetary Economics, Oslo, Tuesday 19 December 2017 www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-norway.htm OECD
More informationThe Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies Mauricio Soto Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund January 212 The views expressed herein are those of the author
More informationPUBLIC SERVICE EMPLOYMENT
PUBLIC SERVICE EMPLOYMENT Projections of Numbers and Demographics of Participants and Economic Effects of the Program L. Randall Wray, Levy Economics Institute and Bard College Report co-authored with
More informationPOLICY STRATEGIES FOR GROWTH- AND EQUITY- FRIENDLY FISCAL CONSOLIDATION
POLICY STRATEGIES FOR GROWTH- AND EQUITY- FRIENDLY FISCAL CONSOLIDATION Jan Stráský With input from Boris Cournède, André Goujard and Álvaro Pina Prague, 19 October 2015 Remarks The opinions expressed
More informationHousehold Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide
Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, and Emil Verner Princeton University, University of Chicago, and Princeton University IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference November
More informationIncome support for older persons in the Republic of Korea : a perspective of older persons
ESCAP Regional Consultation Incheon, Republic of Korea Income support for older persons in the Republic of Korea : a perspective of older persons Soo-Wan Kim (Kangnam University) 1 I. Introduction This
More informationCan employment be increased only at the cost of more inequality?
Can employment be increased only at the cost of more inequality? Engines for More and Better Jobs in Europe ZEW Conference, Mannheim April 2013 Torben M Andersen Aarhus University Policy questions How
More informationSTRUCTURAL POLICIES AND THE DISTRIBUTION
STRUCTURAL POLICIES AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE GROWTH DIVIDENDS June 22 nd 2015 Naomitsu YASHIRO and Orsetta CAUSA OECD Economics Department Structural Surveillance Division Overview The dividends of
More informationEntrepreneurship at a Glance 2018 Highlights
Entrepreneurship at a Glance 218 Highlights OECD Entrepreneurship at a Glance Highlights 218 SDD 1 October 218 List of figures ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND BUSINESS STATISTICS DATABASES 218 UPDATE 2 1. New enterprise
More informationOECD long-term projections for the global economy. David Turner, OECD
OECD long-term projections for the global economy David Turner, OECD CMTEA Workshop, 1 st Feb 2013 Overview of long-term model Coverage: OECD & non-oecd G20 countries to 2060 Potential output projections
More information2017 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SWITZERLAND
217 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SWITZERLAND Boosting productivity and meeting skills needs Bern, 14 November 217 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-switzerland.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Living standards
More informationOECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF BRAZIL 2018
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF BRAZIL 2018 Towards a more prosperous and inclusive Brazil Brasília, 28 February 2018 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-brazil.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD The economy is
More informationThe Challenge of Public Pension Reform
The Challenge of Public Pension Reform Baoping Shang Fiscal Affairs Department International Monetary Fund May 4, 212 This presentation represents the views of the author and should not be attributed to
More informationThe Norwegian Economy
The Norwegian Economy NORINT0500 - Norwegian Life and Society Spring 2018 Hilde Karoline Midsem 19.03.2018 Outline of today s lecture 1. Some facts 2. Production, trade and the history of oil 3. The labor
More informationPOLICY TRENDS IN OECD COUNTRIES TO INCREASE COVERAGE AND CONTRIBUTIONS INTO FUNDED PENSION PLANS
Future of Super Conference Auckland 14 October 2013 POLICY TRENDS IN OECD COUNTRIES TO INCREASE COVERAGE AND CONTRIBUTIONS INTO FUNDED PENSION PLANS Stéphanie Payet Private Pensions Analyst OECD Financial
More informationTHE INDEPENDENCE OF ECONOMIC REGULATORS
THE INDEPENDENCE OF ECONOMIC REGULATORS Filippo Cavassini Policy Analyst Regulatory Policy Division Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate RPI Annual Westminster Conference London, 23
More informationMINIMUM WAGES ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES: BACK TO THE FUTURE?
Paris, 20 October 2017 MINIMUM WAGES ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES: BACK TO THE FUTURE? Andrea Garnero Economist Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD A widespread (but heterogenous) wage setting institution
More informationOECD Centre for Opportunity and Equality
OECD Centre for Opportunity and Equality Evidence-based, policy-oriented research on inequalities Meeting of Providers of OECD Income Distribution Data - February 2016 4. The measurement of imputed rents
More informationMEASURING WHAT MATTERS TO PEOPLE. Martine Durand OECD Chief Statistician and Director of Statistics
MEASURING WHAT MATTERS TO PEOPLE Martine Durand OECD Chief Statistician and Director of Statistics Statistics Flanders Trustworthy numbers for a strong democracy Brussels, 13 December 2017 The OECD Better
More informationOECD Workshop on effective corporate taxation. Corporate taxation on FDI; Kwang-Yeol. YOO, Korean Ministry of Finance. July.
OECD Workshop on effective corporate taxation Corporate taxation on FDI; 1991-001 Kwang-Yeol YOO, Korean Ministry of Finance July.4th, 006 Table of contents I. How to measure tax burden on FDI II. Tax
More informationOutlook Overview: OECD Countries UN LINK Conference, Bangkok October, 2009
Outlook Overview: OECD Countries UN LINK Conference, Bangkok 26 28 October, 2009 Dave Turner OECD, Economics Department OECD Outlook: Outline 1. Recovery underway but will probably be slow 2. Risks and
More informationREGULATORY HETEROGENEITY AND TRADE IN SERVICES. Workshop on Trade and International Regulatory Cooperation, Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås, TAD/TSD
REGULATORY HETEROGENEITY AND TRADE IN SERVICES Workshop on Trade and International Regulatory Cooperation, Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås, TAD/TSD Overview Services exporters and importers Regulation level and
More informationCorrigendum. Page 41, Table 1.A1.1. Details of pension reforms, September 2013-September 2015 : Columns on Portugal should read as follows:
Pensions at a Glance: OECD and G Indicators DOI: http://dx.doi.org/.787/pension_glance-5-en ISBN 9789644636 (print) ISBN 97896444443 (PDF) OECD 5 Corrigendum Page 4, Table.A.. Details of pension reforms,
More informationOverview of the political economic and financial situation in Italy
FEBAF Paris Europlace Italian French dialogue on financial services Paris, 3 september 215 Overview of the political economic and financial situation in Italy Franco Bassanini 1 - 3 Italy finally out of
More informationLABOUR MARKET REFORMS IN PORTUGAL
Lisbon, 19 January 217 LABOUR MARKET REFORMS IN PORTUGAL 211-215 A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OVERVIEW Background In October 215 the XIX Government of Portugal asked the OECD to evaluate the labour market
More informationThe Danish flexicurity model and the crisis. Torben M. Andersen University of Aarhus CEPR, CESifo and IZA
The Danish flexicurity model and the crisis Torben M. Andersen University of Aarhus CEPR, CESifo and IZA The Danish Flexicurity Model Particular triple: Lax EPL Flexible hiring/firing rules Generous UIB
More informationASSET-BASED POVERTY: INSIGHTS FROM THE OECD WEALTH DISTRIBUTION DATABASE. Carlotta Balestra OECD Statistics and Data Directorate
ASSET-BASED POVERTY: INSIGHTS FROM THE OECD WEALTH DISTRIBUTION DATABASE Carlotta Balestra OECD Statistics and Data Directorate Social Situation Monitor Research Seminar Brussels, 12 March 2018 Outline
More informationNORWAY TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains NORWAY TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationHours Worked Across the World: Facts and Driving Forces
: Facts and Driving Forces Goethe University Frankfurt Anglo-German Foundation Annual Lecture April 18, 2018 1 Hours worked worldwide 1 Hours worked worldwide 2 Hours worked in Europe and the US - Decomposition
More information2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF CHILE
2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF CHILE Boosting productivity and quality jobs Santiago, 26 February 2018 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-chile.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Convergence has been impressive
More informationHow to Get Back on the Fast Track?
REGIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES REPORT ON CENTRAL, EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE How to Get Back on the Fast Track? MAY, 216 EUROPEAN DEPARTMENT Map of Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe Baltics CEE
More informationHow demanding are eligibility criteria for unemployment benefits? Quantitative indicators for OECD and EU countries
Seminar on Coverage of unemployment benefits Brussels, 9 December 2015 How demanding are eligibility criteria for unemployment benefits? Quantitative indicators for OECD and EU countries Kristine Langenbucher
More information2019 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL
219 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PORTUGAL Promoting convergence and wellbeing Lisbon, 18 February 219 http://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/portugal-economic-snapshot @OECDeconomy @OECD Key messages Further progress
More informationInequality and Fiscal Policy
Inequality and Fiscal Policy Sanjeev Gupta International Monetary Fund G24 meeting - March 3, 2016 Outline of the presentation q Trends in Inequality and the Redistributive Role of Fiscal Policy q Lessons
More informationCapital Access Index 2006 Gauging Entrepreneurial Access to Capital
Capital Access Index 2006 Gauging Entrepreneurial Access to Capital Max = 10 9.0 Hong Kong 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 40 Source: Milken Institute United Kingdom U.S. India China Brazil Russia
More informationWaiting for the Recovery: OECD Labour Markets in the Wake of the Crisis
OECD Employment Outlook 212 OECD 212 Chapter 1 Waiting for the Recovery: OECD Labour Markets in the Wake of the Crisis The economic recovery has been weak or uneven and some countries have fallen back
More informationPolicy Forum: How to address Inequality and Poverty in South Africa 7 June 2011, Reserve Bank, Pretoria
Policy Forum: How to address Inequality and Poverty in South Africa 7 June 2011, Reserve Bank, Pretoria Growing Unequal? International trends in inequality and poverty Michael Förster OECD, Social Policy
More informationTHE TAX SYSTEM IN BELGIUM COMPARED TO OTHER OECD COUNTRIES
THE TAX SYSTEM IN BELGIUM COMPARED TO OTHER OECD COUNTRIES TOWARDS A WELL-BALANCED FUNDAMENTAL TAX REFORM IN BELGIUM Bert Brys, Ph.D. 14 October 2013 Senior Tax Economist Centre for Tax Policy and Administration
More informationCHALLENGES OF THE EUROZONE CAN THE EURO SURVIVE?
CHALLENGES OF THE EUROZONE CAN THE EURO SURVIVE? Peter Bofinger Universität Würzburg German Council of Economic Experts Presented at the 2017 Annual Lecture in Economics of the Cyprus Economic Society
More informationThe Irish economy and the New Normal of 2018 and 2019
The Irish economy and the New Normal of 2018 and 2019 Corporate Treasury: Mark Hensey Mark.hensey@kbc.ie 01 4321400 Business Banking: Kevin McCarthy Kevin.mccarthy@kbc.ie 0876684261 Austin Hughes Chief
More informationICELAND TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains ICELAND TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationFDI drops 18% in 2017 as corporate restructurings decline
FDI IN FIGURES April 2018 FDI drops 18% in 2017 as corporate restructurings decline Global FDI flows decreased by 18% to USD 1 411 billion in 2017 compared to 2016. In the fourth quarter of 2017, FDI flows
More informationHousing Markets and Structural Policies in OECD Countries
Housing Markets and Structural Policies in OECD Countries William Tompson Senior Counsellor Regional Development Policy Division, OECD INFONAVIT Annual Private Sector Meeting Acapulco, 8 November 2012
More informationHow to deal with potential secular stagnation
How to deal with potential secular stagnation Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Banque de France Paris 16 January 2017 www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com/
More informationCANADA TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains CANADA TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationCHILE TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains CHILE TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationFiscal Implications of Population Ageing Asian Countries
Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this material represent the views of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO)
More informationMonetary Policy Implementation During US Policy Normalization. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México JP Morgan Investor Seminar Washington, DC, 1 October 214 1 Outline 1 Introduction 2 Monetary Policy in 214-15 a. The External Environment b. Domestic
More informationCZECH REPUBLIC TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains CZECH REPUBLIC TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining
More informationHOUSING MARKETS, BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC POLICIES
HOUSING MARKETS, BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC POLICIES Austrian National Bank Workshop - Housing Market Challenges in Europe and the US - any solutions available? September 29, 2008 - Vienna Christophe
More informationUNITED STATES TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains UNITED STATES TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining
More informationNEW ZEALAND TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains NEW ZEALAND TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining
More information2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF POLAND
2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF POLAND Towards an innovative and inclusive economy Warsaw, 19 March 2018 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-poland.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Main messages Economic
More informationPensions at a Glance: Europe and Central Asia
Pensions at a Glance: Europe and Central Asia Edward Whitehouse Head of Pension-Policy Analysis Social Policy division OECD European Commission/ World Bank conference Reforming Pension Systems in Europe
More informationInequality and Fiscal Policy
Inequality and Fiscal Policy Sanjeev Gupta International Monetary Fund CEPAL XXVIII Seminario Regional de Política Fiscal March 16-17, 2016 Santiago, Chile Outline of the presentation Trends in Inequality
More informationECONOMIC POLICY CHALLENGES FOR DENMARK FROM AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
ECONOMIC POLICY CHALLENGES FOR DENMARK FROM AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE Ludger Schuknecht OECD Deputy Secretary General Danish Economic Society Copenhagen 15 January, 219 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-denmark.htm
More informationSWITZERLAND TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains 217 SWITZERLAND TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining
More informationITALY TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains ITALY TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationISRAEL TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains ISRAEL TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationTHE IMMEDIATE EFFECTS
THE IMMEDIATE EFFECTS OF THE AUSTERITY PROGRAM IN GREECE ZAFIRIS TZANNATOS & YANNISMONOGIOS PRESENTED AT THE CONFERENCE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN EUROPE: SCOPE, EFFECTS AND POLICY ISSUES INTERNATIONAL
More informationSPAIN TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains SPAIN TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationIRELAND TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains IRELAND TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationUpgrading business investment
218 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF TURKEY Upgrading business investment Paris, 13 July 218 http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-turkey.htm @OECDeconomy @OECD Growth remains strong despite headwinds
More informationUNITED KINGDOM TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains UNITED KINGDOM TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining
More informationStructural perspectives on European employment, productivity and growth in a global context Sintra, Portugal, 23 May 2015
Structural perspectives on European employment, productivity and growth in a global context Sintra, Portugal, 23 May 2015 Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Key messages Prolonged weak demand has left
More informationGERMANY TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains GERMANY TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationAUSTRIA TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains AUSTRIA TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationFRANCE TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains FRANCE TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationeducation (captured by the school leaving age), household income (measured on a ten-point
A Web-Appendix A.1 Information on data sources Individual level responses on benefit morale, tax morale, age, sex, marital status, children, education (captured by the school leaving age), household income
More informationOECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Moving forward in difficult times. 3 rd December Mauro Pisu OECD Senior Economist
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Moving forward in difficult times 3 rd December 2015 Mauro Pisu OECD Senior Economist Key issues Global trade weakness Harbinger of further slowing of global GDP growth? China s role
More informationSWEDEN TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains SWEDEN TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More informationHOV with technology and consumption dissimilarity
bilaterally HOV with technology and consumption dissimilarity Neil Foster and Robert Stehrer The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) Version: 2012-04-25 Study carried out within
More informationTHE EURO AREA AT A CROSSROADS
I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D THE EURO AREA AT A CROSSROADS Jeffrey Franks Director, IMF Europe Office International Monetary Fund February 2, 2017 1 MONETARY UNION HAS IMPORTANT ACHIEVEMENTS
More informationHUNGARY TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE
International trade, foreign direct investment and global value chains HUNGARY TRADE AND INVESTMENT STATISTICAL NOTE 217 International trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are the main defining features
More information