U.S. March fiscal report: deficit and debt rising but at slower pace.
|
|
- Agatha Allen
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer Jordy Juvera Economics Associate Cynthia Pérez Economics Analyst HR Ratings comments on the U.S. fiscal report for the first half of the fiscal year with deficit and debt continuing to rise but at slightly slower pace. The fiscal deficit for the federal government continues to show substantial increases with strong growth in primary spending relative to weak growth in receipts and even stronger rises in net interest expense. We calculate that the LTM deficit reached 4.20% of our estimate of LTM GDP through the first quarter. This is larger than the 3.75% observed through 1T18. As for publicly held federal government debt, this has held relatively steady reaching 78.1% of our GDP estimate. In March 2018 it totaled 78.3% of GDP. In addition to the relative, and presumably temporary, stabilization in the debt to GDP ratio it is also possible to see improvement in terms of the growth of the deficit as the fiscal year has progressed with smaller cumulative fiscal year increases. In Table 1 we provide a breakdown of the increases in receipts and expenditures, with the latter divided into primary and interest outlays. Thus, for receipts we see the decline in corporate tax revenues that had been expected from the recent changes in tax legislation. We also see a modest decline in individual income tax receipts. For outlays, there are strong increases in defense spending. We assume that some of these non-defense spending numbers (mostly other ) might still be affected by the government shutdown. Significantly, net interest increased by a substantial 14.8%. Table 1: Federal Government Budget Report (US$ billions) FY up to March In Month of:* % Change % Change Total Receipts 1, , % % Individual Income Taxes % % Corporate Income Taxes % % Payroll Taxes % % Other % % Total Outlays 2, , % % Social Security % % Medicare % % Medicaid % % Defense % % Other % % Total Primary spending 1, , % % Net Interest % % Primary Balance % % Financial Balance % % Source: HR Ratings based on data from Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS), using revenue and spending catgegories shown in the CBO's Monthly Budget Review. *Data based on change in cumulative amounts derived from current and previous MTS. The result of these changes is the 15.3% increase in the primary balance and the virtually identical expansion in the financial balance, once net interest expense is included. Although this increase is substantially larger than the nominal expansion in GDP of roughly 5%, it represents an improvement over those of previous months. Thus, for the first four months of the fiscal year (through January) we estimate that the cumulative deficit was up 173%. For the first five months it increased by 39% and now for the first half of the year the advance is a smaller although still substantial 15.3%. Hoja 1 de 7
2 In Table 2 we provide relevant LTM metrics, first showing how the deficit has risen as a percentage of GDP from 1T18 to 1T19. However, versus 2018 it has actually declined marginally. A similar evolution can be seen in the publicly held debt to GDP ratio which is now at 78.1%, percentage lower than the 78.6% seen at the end of 2018, but higher than the 78.3% observed at March In terms of the cost of the debt, we estimate that it reached 2.21% for the LTM through March 2019 vs. the 1.93% a year earlier. Table 2: Federal Government LTM Budget Metrics Dec-18 LTM Financial Deficit (US$ bilions) LTM Deficit as % of LTM GDP* 3.75% 4.26% 4.20% Publicly Held Debt (US$ billions) 15,428 16,102 16,204 Debt as % of LTM GDP* 78.3% 78.6% 78.1% Additional change in debt.** LTM Chg. in Debt as % of LTM GDP 5.37% 6.28% 3.74% Average effective cost of debt 1.93% 2.20% 2.21% Estimated LTM GDP (US$ billions) 19,705 20,494 20,750 Source: HR Ratings with information from the Treasury Department and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (for quarterly GDP data). Fiscal Year from October through September. *Includes HR Ratings estimate for 1Q19 GDP. **Change in publicly held debt beyond deficit in LTM period. In evaluating the increases in the publicly held debt, we also note the changes that it might show apart from the size of the deficits. Thus, for the LTM through March 2018 the debt increased by US$320bn more than the deficit of US$739bn. The total increase equaled 5.37% of GDP. However, the debt is now experiencing a period in which the debt is increasing at less than the deficit. Thus, while the deficit was 4.2% of GDP through March 2019, the increase in the debt was a smaller 3.74%. The relationship between the increase in the public debt and the deficit is seen in Graph 1 below. Over the last four years or so the relationship, once relatively close appears to have broken down. With the LTM data through March 2019 we now have a situation in which the publicly held debt is rising by more than the deficit, partially compensating for previous periods in which the opposite was the case. In the case of the total public debt (including intragovernmental) the misbalance is even larger. Thus, during the four-year period that ended in March 2019 the cumulative deficit was US$2.7 trillion (tr), yet the publicly held debt rose by US$3.1tr or 14.4% more. The total debt increased by US$3.9tr. In the previous four-year period, the cumulative deficit was US$3.2tr with increases in the publicly held and total debt of US$3.4tr (8.9% more) and US$3.9tr. Hoja 2 de 7
3 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Graph 1: Federal Government Deficit and change in Public Debt in billions (LTM) ,100 1,300 Deficit Increase in public debt 1,500 Source: HR Ratings with information from the US Treasury Dept. For the increase in public debt the sign is reversed in order to present data on the same scale as the deficit. In Graph 2 we show the LTM changes in revenues and expenses. Not surprisingly, we see a substantial gap appearing in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2009, subsequently narrowing. We now see the gap expanding once again although by a substantially smaller degree. The post 2008 crisis period saw both an increase in expenditures and a decrease in revenues. Currently, we are seeing relatively stable growth in outlays but with declining revenue growth. Graph 2: Federal Government Revenues and Expenditures as share of GDP (LTM) 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% Revenues Expenditures Source: HR Ratings with information from the US Treasury Dept. and the BEA (for GDP). Includes an HR Ratings estimate for 1Q19 GDP. Hoja 3 de 7
4 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 In Graph 3 we see the results of these trends in the dramatic increase in debt to GDP as a consequence of the financial crisis and the current slower paced rise, accelerating a bit over the last four quarters or so. Graph 3: Federal Government Gross Public Debt as share of GDP (LTM) 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Source: HR Ratings w ith information from the US Treasury Dept. and the BEA (for GDP). Includes HR Ratings estimate for 1Q19 GDP. Finally, in Graph 4 we see the evolution of net interest expense to GDP as well as our estimate of the effective cost of the debt. Thus, as a result of the decline in the effective interest rate in the first half of the graph, interest outlays were stable relative to GDP. This despite a rising debt to GDP ratio. In contrast, we now see both increase in the effective cost of the debt and the rise in interest expense. Hoja 4 de 7
5 Graph 4: Federal Government Net Interest in Billions and Effective Cost of Debt (LTM) Net Interest Outlays Interest Expense to Average Public Debt 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% % Source: HR Ratings w ith information from the US Treasury Dept. and the BEA (for GDP). The cost of debt is calculated as LTM interets expense relative to LTM average public debt. Hoja 5 de 7
6 HR Ratings Management Contacts Management Chairman of the Board Vice President Alberto I. Ramos Aníbal Habeica Chief Executive Officer Fernando Montes de Oca Analysis Chief Credit Officer Deputy Chief Credit Officer Felix Boni Pedro Latapí Public Finance / Infrastructure Corporates / ABS Ricardo Gallegos Hatsutaro Takahashi ricardo.gallegos@hrratings.com hatsutaro.takahashi@hrratings.com Roberto Ballinez José Luis Cano roberto.ballinez@hrratings.com joseluis.cano@hrratings.com Financial Institutions / ABS Methodologies Fernando Sandoval Alfonso Sales fernando.sandoval@hrratings.com alfonso.sales@hrratings.com Regulation Chief Risk Officer Head Compliance Officer Rogelio Argüelles Rafael Colado rogelio.arguelles@hrratings.com rafael.colado@hrratings.com Business Development Business Development Francisco Valle francisco.valle@hrratings.com Hoja 6 de 7
7 Mexico: Avenida Prolongación Paseo de la Reforma #1015 torre A, piso 3, Col. Santa Fe, México, D.F., CP 01210, Tel 52 (55) United States: One World Trade Center, Suite 8500, New York, New York, ZIP Code 10007, Tel +1 (212) *HR Ratings, LLC (HR Ratings), is a Credit Rating Agency registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) for the assets of public finance, corporates and financial institutions as described in section 3 (a) (62) (A) and (B) subsection (i), (iii) and (v) of the US Securities Exchange Act of The rating was solicited by the entity or issuer, or on its behalf, and therefore, HR Ratings has received the corresponding fees for the rating services provided. The following information can be found on our website at (i) The internal procedures for the monitoring and surveillance of our ratings and the periodicity with which they are formally updated, (ii) the criteria used by HR Ratings for the withdrawal or suspension of the maintenance of a rating, (iii) the procedure and process of voting on our Analysis Committee, and (iv) the rating scales and their definitions. HR Ratings ratings and/or opinions are opinions of credit quality and/or regarding the ability of management to administer assets; or opinions regarding the efficacy of activities to meet the nature or purpose of the business on the part of issuers, other entities or sectors, and are based exclusively on the characteristics of the entity, issuer or operation, independent of any activity or business that exists between HR Ratings and the entity or issuer. The ratings and/or opinions assigned are issued on behalf of HR Ratings, not of its management or technical staff, and do not constitute an investment recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any instrument nor to perform any business, investment or other operation. The assigned ratings and/or opinions issued may be subject to updates at any time, in accordance with HR Ratings methodologies. HR Ratings bases its ratings and/or opinions on information obtained from sources that are believed to be accurate and reliable. HR Ratings, however, does not validate, guarantee or certify the accuracy, correctness or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of such information. Most issuers of debt securities rated by HR Ratings have paid a fee for the credit rating based on the amount and type of debt issued. The degree of creditworthiness of an issue or issuer, opinions regarding asset manager quality or ratings related to an entity s performance of its business purpose are subject to change, which can produce a rating upgrade or downgrade, without implying any responsibility for HR Ratings. The ratings issued by HR Ratings are assigned in an ethical manner, in accordance with healthy market practices and in compliance with applicable regulations found on the rating agency webpage. There Code of Conduct, HR Ratings rating methodologies, rating criteria and current ratings can also be found on the website. Ratings and/or opinions assigned by HR Ratings are based on an analysis of the creditworthiness of an entity, issue or issuer, and do not necessarily imply a statistical likelihood of default, HR Ratings defines as the inability or unwillingness to satisfy the contractually stipulated payment terms of an obligation, such that creditors and/or bondholders are forced to take action in order to recover their investment or to restructure the debt due to a situation of stress faced by the debtor. Without disregard to the aforementioned point, in order to validate our ratings, our methodologies consider stress scenarios as a complement to the analysis derived from a base case scenario. The rating fee that HR Ratings receives from issuers generally ranges from US$1,000 to US$1,000,000 (or the foreign currency equivalent) per issue. In some instances, HR Ratings will rate all or some of the issues of a particular issuer for an annual fee. It is estimated that the annual fees range from US$5,000 to US$2,000,00 (or the foreign currency equivalent). Hoja 7 de 7
U.S. Fiscal report for December 2018
Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer felix.boni@hrratings.com Jordy Juvera Economics Associate jordy.juvera@hrratings.com Cynthia Pérez Economics Analyst cynthia.perez@hrratings.com HR Ratings comments
More informationAdvance retail sales in July
Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer felix.boni@hrratings.com Jordy Juvera Economics Associate jordy.juvera@hrratings.com Cynthia Pérez Economics Analyst cynthia.perez@hrratings.com HR Ratings comments
More informationU.S. subdued March inflation and interest rate differentials with Mexico
mar.-14 jun.-14 sep.-14 dic.-14 mar.-15 jun.-15 sep.-15 dic.-15 mar.-16 jun.-16 sep.-16 dic.-16 mar.-17 jun.-17 sep.-17 dic.-17 mar.-18 jun.-18 sep.-18 dic.-18 mar.-19 Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit
More informationPersonal Income Report for February
Analysis Report Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer felix.boni@hrratings.com Alfonso Sales Economic Analysis Manager alfonso.sales@hrratings.com Mireille García Economics Associate mireille.garcia@hrratings.com
More informationAdvance retail sales in June
Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer felix.boni@hrratings.com Jordy Juvera Economics Associate jordy.juvera@hrratings.com Cynthia Pérez Economics Analyst cynthia.perez@hrratings.com HR Ratings comments
More informationU.S. International Trade in April 2018
Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer felix.boni@hrratings.com Jordy Juvera Economics Associate jordy.juvera@hrratings.com Cynthia Pérez Economics Analyst cynthia.perez@hrratings.com HR Ratings comments
More informationU.S. Advance retail sales in May
Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer felix.boni@hrratings.com Jordy Juvera Economics Associate jordy.juvera@hrratings.com Cynthia Pérez Economics Analyst cynthia.perez@hrratings.com HR Ratings comments
More informationArlington Higher Education
Ratings Series 2014A Stable Outlook Contacts Humberto Patiño Senior Associate humberto.patino@hrratings.com José Luis Cano Executive Director / ABS Joseluis.cano@hrratings.com HR Ratings ratified the LT
More informationU.S. employment and income: wages strong but total compensation lags.
United States of America Analysis Report February 7, 2018 Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer felix.boni@hrratings.com Jordy Juvera Economics Associate jordy.juvera@hrratings.com Cynthia Pérez Economics
More informationPersonal income and savings January 2018
Personal income and savings January 2018 United States of America Analysis Report March 2, 2018 Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer felix.boni@hrratings.com Jordy Juvera Economics Associate jordy.juvera@hrratings.com
More informationVINTE Viviendas Integrales S.A.B. de C.V. Some of the most important aspects on which the rating is based are:
VINTE Rating VINTE j Outlook Contacts Stable Samuel Egure-Lascano Analyst samuel.egurelascano@hrratings.com José Luis Cano Vice-President / ABS joseluis.cano@hrratings.com HR Ratings ratified the long-term
More informationNominal GDP (USD billions) Other factors that justify the assigned rating to the Rated Entity are:
Ratings Long Term Foreign Currency Local Currency Short Term Foreign Currency Local Currency Outlook Contacts Jordy Juvera Economics Associate jordy.juvera@hrratings.com Cynthia Perez Economics Analyst
More informationUNIFIN HR BBB- (G) Senior Notes USD$450.0 ISIN US90470TAB44. Rule 17g-7 Information Disclosure Form. Financial Institutions June 20 th, 2017
Senior Notes USD$450.0 Ratings Senior Notes Outlook Negative Rule 17g-7 Information Disclosure Form The Rating Action Commentary (RAC) associated with this disclosure form is an integral part of the form.
More informationArlington Higher Education
A NRSRO Rating* Arlington Higher Education Ratings Series 2014A Series 2014B Stable Outlook Rule 17g-7 Information Disclosure Form The Rating Action Commentary (RAC) associated with this disclosure form
More informationSenior Notes Unifin Financiera, S.A.B. de C.V., SOFOM, E.N.R. Senior Notes issued by the Issuer for an amount of USD$450.0m, ISIN Code US90470TAB44
Ratings Outlook Contacts Akira Hirata Associate akira.hirata@hrratings.com Angel Garcia Financials / ABS Manager angel.garcia@hrratings.com Fernando Sandoval Financials / ABS Executive Director fernando.sandoval@hrratings.com
More informationU.S. 2Q18 GDP Advance Report
Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer felix.boni@hrratings.com Jordy Juvera Economics Associate jordy.juvera@hrratings.com Cynthia Pérez Economics Analyst cynthia.perez@hrratings.com HR Ratings comments
More informationE.R. (the issuance or issuer)
Ratings Outlook Contacts Yunuén Coria Analyst yunuen.coria@hrratings.com Miguel Báez Associate miguel.baez@hrratings.com Angel García Financials Manager angel.garcia@hrratings.com Negative Fernando Sandoval
More informationUNIFIN HR BBB- (G) Senior Notes USD$450.0 ISIN US90470TAB44. Rule 17g-7 Information Disclosure Form. Financial Institutions November 10 th, 2017
Senior Notes USD$450.0 Ratings Senior Notes Outlook Stable Rule 17g-7 Information Disclosure Form The Rating Action Commentary (RAC) associated with this disclosure form is an integral part of the form.
More informationSustainable Bond VINTE Viviendas Integrales S.A.B. de C.V. International Capital Market Association (ICMA). 2
Sustainable Bond Rating VINTE j Outlook Contacts Stable Samuel Egure-Lascano Analyst samuel.egurelascano@hrratings.com José Luis Cano Vice-President / ABS joseluis.cano@hrratings.com Definition The long
More informationCrédito Real, S.A.B. de C.V., SOFOM, E.N.R. ISIN US22548WAB81
Ratings Outlook Contacts César Argüelles Analyst cesar.arguelles@hrratings.com Akira Hirata Associate akira.hirata@hrratings.com Angel García / ABS Manager angel.garcia@hrratings.com Fernando Sandoval
More informationMexico s General Economic Preliminary Policy Guidelines 2018
Guidelines 2018 Analysis Report Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer felix.boni@hrratings.com Mireille García Economics Associate mireille.garcia@hrratings.com Alfonso Sales Economic Analysis Manager
More informationPetróleos Mexicanos. Entity/Instrument. Petróleos Mexicanos and/or PEMEX and/or the entity. The rating process consists of two basic components:
Ratings PEMEX Outlook Negative Rule 17g-7 Information Disclosure Form The Rating Action Commentary (RAC) associated with this disclosure form is an integral part of the form. 1. Symbol, Number, or Score
More informationArlington Higher Education
Ratings Series 2014A Stable Outlook Contacts Humberto Patiño Senior Associate humberto.patino@hrratings.com José Luis Cano Executive Director / ABS Joseluis.cano@hrratings.com HR Ratings ratified the LT
More informationPartial Guarantees for Structured and Unsecured Debt Issues
Debt Issues Debt Methodology Contacts Alfonso Sales Methodological Criteria Associate Director alfonso.sales@hrratings.com Roberto Soto Associate Director Public Finance / Infrastructure roberto.soto@hrratings.com
More informationMexican exports, growth and the US market Trends and prospects
Contacts Felix Boni Chief Credit Officer E-mail: felix.boni@hrratings.com Alfonso Sales Analyst E-mail: alfonso.sales@hrratings.com Mexico s non-petroleum exports, GDP growth and the US market In this
More informationGreen Bonds Rating Methodology
Contactos Mauricio Azoños Manager mauricio.azonos@hrratings.com Roberto Ballinez Senior Executive Director Public Finance / Infrastructure roberto.ballinez@hrratings.com Karla Rivas Vice President of Methodological
More informationAPPLICATION FOR REGISTRATION AS A NATIONALLY RECOGNIZED STATISTICAL RATING ORGANIZATION (NRSRO)
FORM NRSRO OMB APPROVAL OMB Number: 3235-0625 Expires: November 30, 2017 Estimated average burden hours per response: 36 APPLICATION FOR REGISTRATION AS A NATIONALLY RECOGNIZED STATISTICAL RATING ORGANIZATION
More informationIn fiscal year 2016, for the first time since 2009, the
Summary In fiscal year 216, for the first time since 29, the federal budget deficit increased in relation to the nation s economic output. The Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade,
More informationVANDERBILT AVENUE ASSET MANAGEMENT. The Market Impact of the Proposed U.S. Treasury Debt Buyback
The Market Impact of the Proposed U.S. Treasury Debt Buyback Much has been written lately about the government s announced plans to repurchase debt and reduce or eliminate the federal deficit by the second
More informationIs the lag in Dividend Paying Stocks versus the TSX behind us?
November 1 st, 2013 INVESTMENT STRATEGY NOTES Nick Majendie, CA Director, Wealth Management ScotiaMcLeod Senior Portfolio Manager, with responsibility for advising the Anchor Is the lag in Dividend Paying
More informationReport on the Economic Crisis: Initial Impact on Hospitals
Report on the Economic Crisis: Initial Impact on Hospitals November 2008 Executive Summary The capital crunch is making it difficult and expensive for hospitals to finance facility and technology needs.
More informationCRS Report for Congress
Order Code RL33519 CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Why Is Household Income Falling While GDP Is Rising? July 7, 2006 Marc Labonte Specialist in Macroeconomics Government and Finance
More informationEconomic Outlook. Macroeconomic Calm in the Midst of Fiscal Storms. December 3, 2013
Economic Outlook December 3, 2013 Macroeconomic Calm in the Midst of Fiscal Storms The latest round of federal budget negotiations is unlikely to meaningfully impact the near-term economic outlook, whatever
More informationEconomic Review Fourth Quarter 2017
Economic Review Fourth Quarter 2017 The state of the general economy can help or hinder a business prospects by influencing the demand for its goods and services and the availability and price of inputs
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis
The U.S. Economic Outlook, Fiscal Issues and European Crisis October 1 Troy Davig Director of Research Outlook themes The US remains in a moderate growth environment The unemployment rate is 8.1%, close
More informationStatement of. Ben S. Bernanke. Chairman. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on the Budget
For release on delivery 10:00 a.m. EST February 28, 2007 Statement of Ben S. Bernanke Chairman Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on the Budget U.S. House of Representatives
More informationFirst quarter results Ángel Cano, BBVA s President & Chief Operating Officer Madrid, April 26th 2013
First quarter results 2013 Ángel Cano, BBVA s President & Chief Operating Officer Madrid, April 26th 2013 1 Disclaimer This document is only provided for information purposes and does not constitute, nor
More informationAUSTRALIAN INFRASTRUCTURE METRIC
AUSTRALIAN INFRASTRUCTURE METRIC June Quarter 217 The IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Australian Infrastructure Metric (the Metric) is the leading indicator of real investment in Australia s civil infrastructure.
More informationResults for second quarter of 2010
Results for second quarter of 2010 Ángel Cano Chief Operating Officer BBVA Group Madrid, 28th July 2010 1 Disclaimer This document is only provided for information purposes and does not constitute, nor
More informationReport Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per re
Testimony The Budget and Economic Outlook: 214 to 224 Douglas W. Elmendorf Director Before the Committee on the Budget U.S. House of Representatives February 5, 214 This document is embargoed until it
More informationBANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE STUDY H1FY14
BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE STUDY H1FY14 Our study covers 39 banks 26 Public Sector Banks & 13 Private Sector Banks. Banking December 11, 2013 Foreword As per the Central Statistical Organization (CSO)
More informationWhat The New CBO Report Shows Budget And Economic Outlook Has Not Improved by James Horney and Richard Kogan
820 First Street NE, Suite 510 Washington, DC 20002 Tel: 202-408-1080 Fax: 202-408-1056 center@cbpp.org www.cbpp.org August 16, 2005 What The New CBO Report Shows Budget And Economic Outlook Has Not Improved
More informationThe Outlook and Current Policy Challenges
The Outlook and Current Policy Challenges NAHEFFA Spring Conference May 7, 18 Jeff Fuhrer EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 1 Disclaimer: The views represented in this presentation
More informationNotes Unless otherwise indicated, the years referred to in describing budget numbers are fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and ar
Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Price, March 2016 March 2016 CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES Notes Unless otherwise indicated,
More informationAUGUST 2012 An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 Provided as a convenience, this screen-friendly version is identic
AUGUST 2012 An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 Provided as a convenience, this screen-friendly version is identical in content to the principal, printer-friendly version
More informationAn explanation of the Financial Report of the US Government for fiscal year 2015
An explanation of the Financial Report of the US Government for fiscal year 2015 Prepared on behalf of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation November 2016 An explanation of the Financial Report of the US Government
More informationPortugal Q Portugal. Lisbon, April 26th 2012
Q1 2012 Lisbon, April 26th 2012 Disclaimer 2 Banco Santander, S.A. ("Santander") cautions that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Gering/Scottsbluff Economic Forum August 23, 216 George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions
More informationTotal Revenues and Outlays
CHAPTER 1: THE BUDGET OUTLOOK THE BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: 217 TO 227 Figure 1-2. Total Revenues and Outlays Percentage of Gross Domestic Product 28 2 Outlays Average Outlays, 1967 to 216 (2.3%) Projected
More informationNotes Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise indicated, years referred to in describing the bud
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE The Budget and Economic Outlook: 4 to 4 Percentage of GDP 4 Surpluses Actual Projected - -4-6 Average Deficit, 974 to Deficits -8-974 979 984 989
More informationNew Issue: Moody's assigns Aa3 ratings to State of Connecticut G.O. Bonds; outlook is stable
New Issue: Moody's assigns Aa3 ratings to State of Connecticut G.O. Bonds; outlook is stable Global Credit Research - 04 Mar 2014 CONNECTICUT (STATE OF) State Governments (including Puerto Rico and US
More informationLess Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Less Macroeconomic Uncertainty But Lower Long Run Growth July 2018 Kurt Winkelmann, Raghu Suryanayaranan, Ferenc Szalai Navega Strategies LLC. www.navegastrategies.com Navega Strategies LLC is not registered
More informationLegg Mason February 2008 Research Report Price: $70
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Legg Mason February 2008 Research Report Price: $70 Legg Mason is the world s fifth-largest publicly-traded investment manager
More informationAUSTRALIAN INFRASTRUCTURE METRIC
AUSTRALIAN INFRASTRUCTURE METRIC December Quarter 216 The IPA/BIS Oxford Economics Australian Infrastructure Metric (the Metric) is the leading indicator of real investment in Australia s civil infrastructure.
More informationCredit Opinion: Saxony-Anhalt, Land
Credit Opinion: Saxony-Anhalt, Land Global Credit Research - 07 Mar 2014 Germany Ratings Category Moody's Rating Outlook Stable Bonds Aa1 Commercial Paper -Dom Curr P-1 Other Short Term -Dom Curr (P)P-1
More informationQ1 FY17 Financial Results
Q1 FY17 Financial Results August 2, 2016 1 Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains forward-looking statements, as that term is defined under the federal securities
More informationEconomics Group. Special Commentary. April 07, 2014
Economics Group Special Commentary John E. Silvia, Chief Economist john.silvia@wellsfargo.com (704) 410-3275 Michael A. Brown, Economist michael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com (704) 410-3278 2014 Federal Fiscal
More informationCurrent Economic Conditions and Selected Forecasts
Order Code RL30329 Current Economic Conditions and Selected Forecasts Updated May 20, 2008 Gail E. Makinen Economic Policy Consultant Government and Finance Division Current Economic Conditions and Selected
More informationU.S. Municipal Market The View From the Markets Presentation to the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, New York and Philadelphia
U.S. Municipal Market The View From the Markets Presentation to the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago, New York and Philadelphia GAIL SUSSMAN, MANAGING DIRECTOR, US PUBLIC FINANCE June 24, 2011 Unprecedented
More informationRating Action: Moody's assigns Caa3 Issuer Rating to US Virgin Islands; lowers ratings on four liens of Matching Fund Revenue Bonds
Rating Action: Moody's assigns Caa3 Issuer Rating to US Virgin Islands; lowers ratings on four liens of Matching Fund Revenue Bonds Global Credit Research - 31 Jan 2018 New York, January 31, 2018 -- Moody's
More informationOBSERVATION. TD Economics PERSISTENT FEDERAL DEFICITS ON THE HORIZON
OBSERVATION TD Economics PERSISTENT FEDERAL DEFICITS ON THE HORIZON Highlights The federal government made a splash last week by upgrading its budget deficit profile over the next two years to about $18
More informationFirst quarter results 2012
First quarter results 2012 Ángel Cano, BBVA President & Chief Operating Officer Madrid, April 25 th 2012 1 Disclaimer This document is only provided for information purposes and does not constitute, nor
More informationHAS THE CHINA COLLAPSE FINALLY ARRIVED?
Sinology by Andy Rothman January 22, 2019 a Macro data in the last quarter of 2018 didn t slow sharply. The growth rates of household consumption and private investment actually accelerated. a This year,
More informationVICTORIAN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
VICTORIAN BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OUTLOOK MARCH 2017 QUARTERLY UPDATE 15 JUNE 2017 PREPARED FOR THE MASTER BUILDERS ASSOCIATION OF VICTORIA STAFF RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS REPORT WERE: Director Senior
More informationPrivate non-financial sector indebtedness: where do we stand?
HCSF/217/1-2-1 15 e séance Private non-financial sector indebtedness: where do we stand? The French private non-financial sector (households and firms) indebtedness registered a steady increase since the
More informationPortugal: surprise increase in 3Q GDP growth to 0.8% QoQ
December 6 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Portugal: surprise increase in 3Q GDP growth to.8% QoQ Myriam Montañez The Portuguese economy grew by.8% QoQ in 3Q6, considerably more than expected (.3% QoQ). In contrast
More informationMoney Market Operations in Fiscal 2012
June 2013 Money Market Operations in Fiscal 2012 Financial Markets Department Please contact below in advance to request permission when reproducing or copying the content of this report for commercial
More informationBernalillo Municipal School District 1 (Sandoval County), NM
CREDIT OPINION New Issue Bernalillo Municipal School District 1 (Sandoval County), NM New Issue - Moody's Assigns A1 to Bernalillo MSD 1, NM's $8.1M GO & GO Rfdg Bonds, Summary Rating Rationale Contacts
More informationAN ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT DETERIORATION IN THE FISCAL CONDITION OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT
September 2004 AN ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT DETERIORATION IN THE FISCAL CONDITION OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT Per Capita Net Federal Debt 1998 to 2004* (Actual Debt Compared to CBO January 2001 Forecast) $16,000
More informationThirty-year deficits and debt
Scenario #1 1st 2nd 3rd 30-year Current path of spending, projected. Thirty-year deficits and debt Total spending $46,677 $80,105 $145,175 $271,957 pct of GDP 21.9% 24.5% 28.7% 26.0% Total revenue $40,336
More informationLong-Term Fiscal Challenge: Context for Budget/Funding Debates
Long-Term Fiscal Challenge: Context for Budget/Funding Debates Susan J Irving Transportation Research Board of the National Academies Executive Committee Policy Session June 10, 2011 1 Overview Near-term
More informationNational Economic Outlook
National Economic Outlook MSBO Financial Strategies Conference January 17, 2018 Presented by: Kyle Jones, Director of Portfolio Strategies PFM Asset Management LLC One Keystone Plaza, Suite 300 N. Front
More informationCONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027 Percentage of GDP 4 2 Surpluses Actual Current-Law Projection 0 Growth in revenues is projected -2-4
More informationCARE RATINGS DEFAULT AND TRANSITION STUDY
January 2018 Default Study CARE RATINGS DEFAULT AND TRANSITION STUDY 2017 (For the period March 31, 2007 March 31, 2017) Summary CARE commenced its rating activity in 1993, and has over the years acquired
More informationMarkets at a Glance. India Q2 CY For Distributors use only
Markets at a Glance India Q CY 17 For Distributors use only India Macro Economy Trade Inflation Monetary Sector Valuations Liquidity Macro Economy GDP Emerging vs Developed (In % YoY) Credit Growth vs
More informationU.S. Economic Outlook: recent developments
U.S. Economic Outlook Recent developments Washington, D.C., 6 February 2018 This document was prepared by Helvia Velloso, Economic Affairs Officer, under the supervision of Inés Bustillo, Director, ECLAC
More informationStructural Changes in the Maltese Economy
Structural Changes in the Maltese Economy Dr. Aaron George Grech Modelling and Research Department, Central Bank of Malta, Castille Place, Valletta, Malta Email: grechga@centralbankmalta.org Doi:10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n5p423
More informationLeading the New Financial System
Leading the New Financial System Banking & Insurance CEO Conference Ángel Cano President & COO London, 28th September 2010 1 Disclaimer This document is only provided for information purposes and does
More informationcepr Analysis of the Upcoming Release of 2003 Data on Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Data Brief Paper Heather Boushey 1 August 2004
cepr Center for Economic and Policy Research Data Brief Paper Analysis of the Upcoming Release of 2003 Data on Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Heather Boushey 1 August 2004 CENTER FOR ECONOMIC AND
More informationSecond quarter results 2011
Second quarter results 2011 Ángel Cano, BBVA's President & COO July 28th 2011 1 Disclaimer This document is only provided for information purposes and does not constitute, nor must it be interpreted as,
More information2012 Results. Ángel Cano, BBVA s President & Chief Operating Officer Madrid, February 1st 2013
2012 Results Ángel Cano, BBVA s President & Chief Operating Officer Madrid, February 1st 2013 1 Disclaimer This document is only provided for information purposes and does not constitute, nor must it be
More informationQuarterly Currency Outlook
Mature Economies Quarterly Currency Outlook MarketQuant Research Writing completed on July 12, 2017 Content 1. Key elements of background for mature market currencies... 4 2. Detailed Currency Outlook...
More informationBCC UK Economic Forecast Q4 2015
BCC UK Economic Forecast Q4 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and
More informationEconomic Outlook. Deficit Reduction: Fiscal Drag or Addition through Subtraction? November 30, 2012
Economic Outlook November 30, 2012 Deficit Reduction: Fiscal Drag or Addition through Subtraction? BY JASON M. THOMAS Given the attention paid to what could go wrong with fiscal cliff negotiations in Washington,
More informationNorges Bank Review 24 September 2015
Norges Bank Review 24 September 2015 A 25bp rate cut and an easing bias Frank Jullum Chief Analyst fju@danskebank.dk www.danskebank.com/research Arne Lohmann Rasmussen Chief Analyst klom@danskebank.dk
More informationThe Future of Mexican Monetary Policy
The Future of Mexican Monetary Policy Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Mexico Summit Mexico City, 2 March 2017 */ The views expressed herein are strictly personal.
More informationCONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2016 to 2026 Percentage of GDP 100 Actual Projected 80
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE The Budget and Economic Outlook: 6 to 6 Percentage of GDP Actual Projected 8 In s projections, growing 6 deficits drive up debt over the next decade,
More information7. Monetary Trends and Policy
Quarterly Monitor No. 36 January March 214 47 7. Monetary and Policy Inflation has been stable for the past two quarters at about the lower level of the target corridor but the National Bank of Serbia
More informationLORD ABBETT ANNUAL REPORT
LORD ABBETT ANNUAL REPORT Lord Abbett Municipal Income Fund Short Duration Tax Free Fund Intermediate Tax Free Fund AMT Free Municipal Bond Fund National Tax Free Fund High Yield Municipal Bond Fund Short
More informationOBSERVATION. TD Economics U.S. DEFICITS & DEBT: PAST, PRESENT & FUTURE
OBSERVATION TD Economics U.S. DEFICITS & DEBT: PAST, PRESENT & FUTURE Highlights The U.S. budget deficit is declining sharply. From 1.9% in fiscal 29 and 6.8% in 212, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
More informationForeign Holdings of Federal Debt
Marc Labonte Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy Jared C. Nagel Information Research Specialist March 28, 2016 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RS22331 Summary This report presents current
More informationRating Update: Moody's maintains A3 on San Francisco Airport Commission 1997 Special Facilities Lease Revenue Bonds (SFO FUEL COMPANY, LLC)
Rating Update: Moody's maintains A3 on San Francisco Airport Commission 1997 Special Facilities Lease Revenue Bonds (SFO FUEL COMPANY, LLC) Global Credit Research - 28 Mar 2014 Approximately $82.6million
More informationJapanese Stock Market Outlook. SMAM monthly comments & views -July
Japanese Stock Market Outlook SMAM monthly comments & views -July 2018 - Executive summary Japanese Economy GDP forecast for FY 2018 was slightly upgraded by 0.1% to 1.2% due mainly to higher starting
More informationU.S. Corporate Issuers: Lending Surges Amid A Decline In Credit Risk In 1Q17
U.S. Corporate Issuers: Lending Surges Amid A Decline In Credit Risk In 1Q17 S&P Global Fixed Income Research Apr. 2017 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the
More informationForeign Holdings of Federal Debt
Marc Labonte Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy Jared C. Nagel Information Research Specialist May 28, 2015 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RS22331 Summary This report presents current
More informationHANG SENG BANK LIMITED ( 恒生銀行 )
9/F, 10 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong. Dealing: 3608 8000 Research: 3608 8097 Facsimile: 3608 6132 HONG KONG RESEARCH Analyst: Kevin Tam 1 st August 2006 HANG SENG BANK LIMITED ( 恒生銀行 ) Sector : Banking
More informationEBA REPORT ON ASSET ENCUMBRANCE JULY 2017
EBA REPORT ON ASSET ENCUMBRANCE JULY 2017 1 Contents List of figures 3 Executive summary 4 Analysis of the asset encumbrance of European banks 6 Sample 6 Scope of the report 6 Total encumbrance 7 Encumbrance
More informationEAST ASIA SECURITIES COMPANY LIMITED 9/F, 10 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong. Dealing: Research: Facsimile:
9/F, 10 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong. Dealing: 3608 8000 Research: 3608 8097 Facsimile: 3608 6132 HONG KONG RESEARCH Analyst: Vincent Leung 8 th August 2007. STANDARD CHARTERED PLC ( 渣打集團 ) Sector
More informationRating Update: Moody's downgrades Puerto Rico general obligation and related bonds to Baa3 from Baa1 and certain notched bonds to Ba1
Rating Update: Moody's downgrades Puerto Rico general obligation and related bonds to Baa3 from Baa1 and certain notched bonds to Ba1 Global Credit Research - 13 Dec 2012 Approximately $38 billion of debt
More informationManaging in an uncertain interest rate environment
Managing in an uncertain interest rate environment GOLDMAN SACHS Banking Conference Montecarlo, 10 th June 2004 Disclaimer This document is only provided for information purposes and does not constitute,
More information